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What Can We Expect From Trevor May?

Posted by jtkoupal , 08 August 2014 · 608 views

The day has finally arrived. It was announced that Trevor May will start Saturday night for the Twins against Jeff Samardzija and the Oakland Athletics at the Overstock.com Colosseum. When the move was announced Friday afternoon, fans in the Upper Midwest rejoiced in anticipation of seeing n important piece of the future take the field for the Twins.

So with that being said, what can we realistically expect from May? What would satisfy us as fans?

Of course, we would all like to see him burst onto the scene and become an ace right out of the gate. Unfortunately, that rarely happens to young pitchers who have just gotten called up to make their debuts. Of course it will probably not be smooth sailing for the rest of the year. What we can hope is that he is more successful in his first tastes of the show than Kyle Gibson was last year. In 10 starts last year, Gibson had an ERA of 6.53, a FIP of 5.17, a 1.75 WHIP, and a -0.8 pitchers WAR. Barring a demotion, which Gibson got last August, May should be in line to get about 8-10 starts himself.

In 17 starts in Rochester this year, May owns a 2.93 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. What I like, though, is the 8.6 K/9, which is likely to be lower in the bigs, though, possibly about 7-7.5.

In terms of how he will fare this year, it is never predictable. Some young pitchers burst onto the scene and blow away hitters like their in Double-A and others can't get anybody out. Add in the fact that FIP and xFIP, two of the best stats to predict future performance, are not calculated in the minor leagues and the ability to predict is even lower. What we have to do, though, is stay patient through his ups and downs the next couple of years.

Calling up May is the right move. He needs to take the ball every fifth day for the remainder of the season. There is nothing to lose. This season is probably going to end in a last place finish and the way things are going, possibly another 90+ loss season. Even if he struggles, he needs to be with the big club along with a few of our other prospects. Houston is playing their future, even some players who aren't 100% ready, because they realize that there is nothing to lose and that they are a couple of years away from being serious contenders. We need to do the same.

One concern I have with this move though is that I worry about exposing more top prospects to the culture in our dugout. We have seen so many prospects get called up and never live up to their potential, which after seeing so much of that, tells me that it's a problem with motivation, which comes from the coaching staff and management. I worry that May will be the next victim of that culture.

However, in terms of what I project Trevor May to become in the future, I expect his 2015 to be similar to Kyle Gibson's 2014. I expect some hot and cold streaks. Maybe not as extreme as Gibson's, but they will happen. I would expect something along the lines of an ERA around 3.80, a WHIP around 1.30, and a FIP around 3.70 in 2015. Down the road, he has a very high ceiling. I project him to be a number 2 or 3 starter and hopefully participating in a few All-Star Games.

To conclude, Go Twins, good luck to Trevor May, and have a great weekend to all of you users here at Twins Daily.

Aug 09 2014 12:12 PM
I think he has a decent game going into the 7th inning and giving up 3 runs. He will rack up a lot of Ks which will keep people hopeful.

I just hope he doesn't overthrow which happens to a lot of kids when they first get called up.

Trying to throw 110 mph. A nice and easy delivery will do (easier said than done when you're amped up, I;m sure).

May has a ton of minors xp and has made large steps forward to improving his game over the last year or so.He did a couple good interviews on the talk2contact podcast and sounds like someone ready to make the jump while not over thinking or stressing out about it. 


He is never going to be an ace, but I think he could prove himself a valuable 3rd or 4th starter on a good team that can eat innings and rack up some k's.I am hoping 6 or 7 innings, around a hundred pitches, and a couple strikeouts happen tonight.