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Bet On It! Part 2

Posted by SD Buhr , 31 January 2020 · 1,434 views

A couple of weeks ago, in the aftermath of the Minnesota Twins signing free agent third baseman Josh Donaldson, I checked in with sportsbooks at William Hill and Elite to see what effect the addition of the Bringer of Rain was having on the oddsmakers' views of the Twins' chances of winning their Division, the American League Pennant and the World Series in 2020.

As it turned out, the bookies weren't exactly joining in Twins' fans euphoria. The odds had shifted very little or not at all.

As I wrote then, however, I decided to follow this throughout the rest of the offseason (maybe even into the season) and see whether things change. In addition, I also noticed a few other interesting lines as I perused the William Hill and Elite Sportsbook sites this morning.

First, let's take a look at what's happening with the Twins' odds for the 2020 season.

Posted Image

The long and short of it is that there isn't a lot of movement and the differences between the two sportsbooks are shrinking or even disappearing, in some cases.

The one bet where it still pays to shop around is with regard to Minnesota's odds to repeat as the American League Central Champions. At William Hill, the Twins' odds have moved from -175 to -160, so they're becoming bigger believers as time moves on. But if you want to put money on the Twins to win their Division, you still want to go to Elite to do it. They continue to list the Twins as an even-odds favorite to repeat. (A $100 bet on the Twins at William Hill will win you just $62.50 if they win the Central, where the same bet gets you $100 at Elite's 1-1 odds.)

William Hill has brought their odds on the Twins winning the AL Pennant and the World Series directly in line with Elite's line, which hasn't changed since we checked in a couple of weeks ago. William Hill has brought their projected regular season wins total back a half-win, to 91 1/2 wins, however. Elite is where you want to go if you want to bet the over on Twins wins, however. They're at 90 1/2 wins. I couldn't find where I checked what Elite had for Twins Total Wins a couple of weeks ago.

So, that's the story on the Twins. But let's move on and look at where else you might want to have some fun.

In the last article, I pointed out that, if you're inclined to throw you're money away, you could get much healthier odds on the Tigers and Royals to win the World Series at William Hill than at Elite. That's still the case. In fact, the odds against the projected AL Central doormats are getting even longer. At William Hill, the Royals have moved from 200-1 to 250-1, currently. Previously at 500-1, the Tigers (along with the Orioles) are now at 750-1. At Elite, the Royals and Tigers sit at 125-1.

But if you're really looking to flush your money down the toilet... I mean... if you're looking for a value-buy, check out the Orioles. At Elite, the Orioles get you a measly 100-1 odds. But at William Hill, they sit right there with the Tigers at 750-1! I mean, if you're going to throw $100 on a long shot, do you want to get ten grand when it pays off or would you prefer $75,000?

Silly talk right? Yeah, but I bet there's one member of my immediate family who, assuming he reads this, is sitting there right now thinking hard about that Orioles bet.

There are a couple of more realistic (relatively speaking, anyway) options to give some thought to, though, when you compare odds being offered at these two books.

The Red Sox are still sitting at 5-1 odds to win the American League on Elite, but you can get 12-1 on the same bet at William Hill. Have to say, 12-1 on a Boston AL Pennant is pretty tempting.

If you think the AL East is just too tough for the Red Sox to fight through, how about a team that's in a Division most people see as much easier to win? How are you feeling about Cleveland, for example? Yeah the Twins are loaded on offense, but Cleveland still has pitching and defense and that's what wins championships, right?

Again, stay away from Elite, where they offer just 7-1 odds. You can get twice that (14-1) on Cleveland to win the American League at William Hill.

You might start to think that William Hill is simply the place to go for better odds, right? Not always, no. You know the Angels have been making some pretty strong moves. Maybe you think the Astros will falter when they're forced to use trash cans just to collect trash. The Angels front office seems to think this is the year to go for it. What if they're right?

If you want to get on the Halos' bandwagon, you turn your attention away from William Hill (where they offer just 10-1 odds to win the AL Pennant) and give Elite your business, taking them up on their 17-1 offering for the same bet.

Believe it or not, though, they also play baseball in the National League! Let's take a peek over there.
People in Minnesota may not be aware of this, but the Chicago Cubs have a pretty big following (especially down here in Eastern Iowa). I know, there's no accounting for taste, but some people were just raised poorly and we shouldn't hold it against them.

Most of these people, you would think, learned a long, long time ago never to bet on the Cubs. But some of them, still drunk on finally winning it all a few years ago, might be optimistic enough to consider putting some money on the Cubbies in 2020. If that describes anyone you know, the place to go is William Hill, where you can get 12-1 odds on the Cubs winning the National League (vs. just 6-1 at Elite) and an even healthier 25-1 on a Cubs World Series Championship (compared to 12-1 at Elite).

Yes, that means you get the same return at William Hill for the Cubs "merely" winning the NL Pennant that Elite is requiring a Cubs World Series trophy to get.

Of course, if you want the longest odds on Cubs bets, you might want to wait a few days. Now that Kris Bryant lost his case and is under club control for the extra year, it's only a matter of time before he's traded, right? That should bump the odds up a bit.

I guess that's enough to ponder for today. Maybe we'll check back in about the time Spring Training is getting underway.

  • nclahammer and 3balls2strikes like this

Rolled the dice today and put $50 on the Twins to win it all in 2020. Draftking had them at 20-1.

    • SD Buhr likes this