Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

Magic Number Thread

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 04:17 PM
Why no magic number thread?     Why can't I post pictures?      BYTO was fun.    

Front Page: The Underappreciated, Hard-Luck Legacy of Kyl...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 03:34 PM
From the very beginning, Kyle Gibson's career was defined by injury and disappointment. Coming out of the University of Missouri in 2009,...

Front Page: Twins Game Recap (9/19): Nelson Cruz Crushes...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 03:23 PM
That’s more like it. The Twins averaged nearly six runs a game through August, but entered Thursday averaging just 4.4 runs per game so f...

German Out - What are the Starting Pitcher Matchups vs. Y...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 03:21 PM
ESPN just reported that Domingo German of the Yankees is out for the playoffs.This has pretty significant ramifications for a likely Twin...

Front Page: 2019 Killebrew Award Winner - Jake Reed (Roch...

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 03:15 PM
Harmon Killebrew hit 573 home runs in his Hall of Fame career. Most people who had the opportunity to meet the slugger talk more about th...

Photo

Getting Gonzalez AB

Posted by Physics Guy , 24 February 2019 · 910 views

marwin gonzalez twins lineup
When rumors started floating around last week about the Twins' interest in Marwin Gonzalez, I found myself quite surprised. While I still contend that the Twins would be better off spending said money on Keuchel or Kimbrel if they would sign a two or three year contract, it is hard to find fault in adding another above average bat for the lineup. My concern now is how do the Twins find 500 AB for Gonzalez when all of the starting positions are essentially spoken for.

I did some digging and believe it can be done without sacrificing continued development of our younger players. Let's start with the assumption that the following players will hold down starting positions followed by the number of plate appearances I would project them to get this coming season.

C - Garver, Castro - 650
1B - Cron - 550
2B - Schoop - 550
SS - Polanco - 600
3B - Sano - 550
LF - Rosario - 600
CF - Buxton - 550
RF - Kepler - 600
DH - Cruz - 550

This totals up to 5200 PA for the starters. Last season the Twins tallied a little over 6100 PA not including those taken by pitchers. That leaves 900 PA for the bench. The 650 PA for the catchers is approximately what they totaled for the team last year. Since Gonzalez can essentially sub for any of those positions, I think it is easy to see that he can get to 500 plate appearances this year.

Baldelli will need to be creative and use Gonzalez as a true super utility player. Looking at the projected PA, Gonzalez would need to account mostly for PA at 1B, 2B, 3B and OF. I will guess that he will play 3B the most (with Sano slotting in to take away some PA from Cron) followed closely by OF, then 2B and SS. I doubt they will actually play him at 1B much as I would guess that Gonzalez is a better 3B than Sano. If Gonzalez can perform with the bat near past levels while moving around this much it would be of great benefit to the Twins. They can keep players healthy with roughly a game off once every one or two weeks.

Adding Gonzalez puts the Twins at 11 position players with the 10 above. The Twins are likely to have 13 pitchers and 12 hitters on their roster. Since Astudillo and Cave both have options, it is likely they start in AAA. In order to get to 500 PA, Gonzalez will need to be the primary sub for the OF so Cave should be in AAA. I like both Cave and Astudillo, but having options dooms them to AAA. That leaves Austin and Adrianza for the final spot. Maybe the Twins keep both at the start of the season and only have 12 pitchers, but it is likely one will hit waivers at some point. My choice would be to keep Austin as a bat off the bench, especially since we have Torreyes likely at AAA as a fallback in case we lost Adrianza on waivers. If Adrianza doesn't get claimed, the Twins have solid depth at AAA in case of injuries, possibly better depth than we've had in some time. The more I look at this signing, the more I like it. Now find a way to sign Keuchel or Kimbrel.




Photo
Channing1964
Feb 24 2019 04:13 PM
that sounds just fine by me....the option thing means a lot more than people wanna admit. Someone has to really fall on their face if they are out of options. The mysterious shoulder problem that Adrianza has makes the decisions even easier barring a superstar performance by someone like Duda. It means the position player battles more clearly defined. The bullpen is a way different story.
Photo
LylesCrocodiles
Feb 24 2019 04:32 PM
This is my guess for opening day...
SS Polanco
LF Rosario
DH Cruz
3B Sano
LF Kepler
1B Cron
2B Schoop
C Castro/Garver
CF Buxton

Bench - Marwin Torreyes Cave (Adrianza DL)

Berrios/Gibson/Odorrizi/Pineda/Perez

Reed/May/Rogers/Parker/Romero/Hildenberger/Mejia
Photo
LA VIkes Fan
Feb 24 2019 07:58 PM

I like your post and share your POV/enthusiasm but don't agree with your bench at all. I know the option thing is important but I would like to see the team actually keep the BEST PLAYERS rather than lesser players who are out of options. I think that's particularly true with Austin and Adrianza. Austin is a boom or bust player who strikes out a ton, doesn't hit RH pitching very well, and isn't much in the field. Adrianza is a decent utility man who has become redundent with the signing of Gonzalez (they ranked very close to each other in defensive metrics at SS). Torreyes is on a split contract for a reason - he isn't a very good MLB SS although he can hit for a middle IF. Conversely, Cave is a guy who had a .797 OPS, 113 OPS+ in 300 plus ABs last year, strikes out way too much, and is a pretty good defensive OF who can play a decent CF. Astudillo had a SSS impressive 2017 and can play all over the field. 

 

I think the heirarchy of those 4 players is clear - Cave, then Astudillo, then Austin, followed by Adrianza and Torreyes in which ever order floats your boat. Bat (Torreyes) vs. glove (Adrianza) for those two. Could Austin get claimed out of the great unwashed mass if he's DFA'd at the end of ST as every team cuts down to 25? Maybe, but I say the odds are less than 50/50. Adrianza? Even lower odds of getting claimed. Torreyes is on a minor league deal so he doesn't have to get DFA'd. 

 

Winning teams keep their best players. They don't worry so much about losing guys who really aren't starting MLB quality guys. I want the Twins to be winners. Keep the best players and show the team that you intend ot try to win now, not next year or the year after. To me, that's a bench of Gonzalez, Garver (I'd actually start Garver and put Castro on the bench), and Cave with 13 man pitching staff, add Astudillo if we go to 12 pitchers. 

    • Sabir Aden likes this
Photo
Physics Guy
Feb 25 2019 07:26 PM

Yes, Cave is the better player because of the defensive abilities he brings over Austin, but their hitting stats are similar: 

 

Cave283 AB 18BB 102 K .265/.313/.473

Austin 244 AB 19 BB 95 K .232/.287/.480

 

Austin also has a stronger track record in the minors. With the proclaimed intention to get Gonzalez 500 PA, that makes him the top sub in the OF. This means Cave gets most of his AB as a PH and occasional OF. I would argue that good teams have depth ready to step in when needed.I want

Cave playing every day, same with Astudillo. Austin profiles well in the role he would have on this lineup as a PH/occasional DH/1B. I would have no problem whatsoever with Cave as the 12th man, it's just not what I prefer. We will just have to agree to disagree. I don't think it makes much difference either way.

Photo
Hosken Bombo Disco
Feb 25 2019 11:37 PM
Those PA look like the players’ upper bounds, especially for Sano, but otherwise looks pretty close.

I also think the Twins break camp with 12 or only 11 pitchers, though that doesn’t really create extra PAs.