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Repost from Feb 2016. “4 things that need to happen for twins to win World Series in next 5 years

Posted by Supfin99 , 14 February 2019 · 2,090 views

So I posted this 3 years ago almost to the day. It’s funny to look at some of these theses names and see how wrong I was. But also how some remain true. Still waiting on Buck and Sano to figure it out. Man was I wrong about the bullpen as None of the arms I listed made it except for Rogers. I think we may have a few of the secondary stars in Rosario, Polanco and Kepler. I think Berrios is a 2 and Gibson is a solid 3. Still need another # 2 caliber pitcher ( please be Graterol or Romero) or Berrios to develop into a true ace.

The things that needs to happen for the Twins to win a title in the next few years. I break it down into 4 points.

1). Sano and Buxton need to emulate the Army and be all they can be.
Both these guys have been at the top of prospect rankings for years. If the Twins are going to win a championship or 2 they have to become the studs they have the talent to be. For Sano this means becoming a prodigious power hitter. Sano needs to become a guy that regularly hits 35 homers and 35 doubles a year. I'm not saying he needs to be like Miggy and bat .330 also. We know he is going to strike out a lot but we will take that as long as we get the power and the patience. Buxton needs to become one of the best CFers in baseball. We know Buck has the tools to be the best defensive center fielder from day one. The bat needs to develop also. He needs to be a .300 hitter with some power and patience. A .300/.350/.475 with 15 homers, 50 steals and 100 plus runs every year. They need to be our Mauer and Morneau, potential MVP candidates year in and year out.

2) They need 7 points or less out of top 3 starters in rotation.
I assign points to a starter according to their status as a number 1, 2 or 3 starter. Lower the point the better. The traditional way is for this to have a 1, a 2 and a 3. A true ace or number 1 starter, a very good number 2 and a solid number 3. I think teams like the Royals have shown that you can get by without an ace if you have several 2's and 3's. So out of the group of Gibson, Duffy, Berrios, Gonsalves, Stewart and Thorpe we need to get a true number 1 or at least a couple of 2's. I am a big fan of Kyle Gibson and believe he is already a 3 with a chance to go to a 2 if the SO ratio from the end of last season continues in 2016. I also believe Berrios will be a at least a 3 with a very good chance of being a 2 and at certain times to look like a 1. We need 1 more guy to hit the level of a number 2 starter. I still like Stewart's chances and I'm intrigued by Gonsalves, I really am hoping for Thorpe. If he can recover from TJ surgery and continue on the path he started on he may be able to still reach that level.

3). 3 bullpen pieces need to become lights out.
In my post from last week I talked about not wanting to sign overpriced veteran arms. This is the reason why. We need these guys to have room to pitch in the majors. There is a large talented group of bullpen arms who are close to being ready for the big leagues. Burdi, Reed, Chargois, Tonkin, Meyer, Perterson, and a few others from the right side and Melotakis, Rogers, Booser from the left. 3 of these guys need to become lights out shut down relievers. My hope would be that the 3 ends up being Burdi, Melotakis and Chargois. 2 righties and a lefty that all throw 97 plus. A top 5 out of the pen with closer Perkins, May the set up man and then these 3 to pitch the 6th, 7th and eighth looks outstanding.

4). 2 additional secondary stars need to develop out of remaining cast
You can't win with 2 stars and then nothing else in your lineup. You have to have depth so they don't just pitch around Buck and Sano. There is a plenty of potential names. Rosario, Kepler, Walker III, Park, Gordon, Polanco and others. We have Plouffe and Dozier already in place. I don't think they're stars but are very solid players but will they still be here in 3 years? Can Rosario build on his rookie year and keep his power stats while developing better patience? If he can truly become an annual 5 by 15 player (homers, triples, doubles, steals and assists) then he doesn't need to get on base at a .330 clip but at least an OBP of .300 is needed. Can Kepler become a big leaguer with stats that approach what he did last year for Chatanooga? Can Gordon become a SS that can hit .300/.350/.400 while playing good defense? Can Park's power translate to MLB and annually hit 25+ homers? We need at least 2 of these guys to develop into borderline all stars.

SO that is a lot of good things that need to happen to win a World Series. The nice thing is there are lot of options. In the BP there are 8 or 9 guys that have potential and you just need 3. There are numerous good starting pitchers in the system and we only need 1 or 2 to hit the high end of their potential spectrum. There are quite a few position players who have performed at a very high level in the minors and we just need a coupe to continue that production. I know there is a very high failure rate with prospects, that is why you need to have so many options. I believe there is enough pieces currently in our system for a few of them to become these type of players. If we can roll out in 2018 with 2 potential MVP candidates in Sano and Buxton, a top 3 in the rotation of Number 1 Berrios, Number 2 Thorpe, Number 3 Gibson, borderline all stars in Rosario, Kepler and Gibson and lights out bullpen the Twins will win a World Series in the near future.

  • NoCryingInBaseball likes this

Concerning point #2...at the moment...I discount Thorpe and Stewart. I so with all hope for both of them, but, Thorpe is not only still very young but missed a whole season now. Stewart is also quite young...something people forget that grow impatient too quickly...and not only needs to show a little more, but might actually benefit in the long run from another 1/2 year or level repition. Further, I'm not so sure the pieces aren't just about all there RIGHT NOW, save for a little more experience.

I agree Gibson is very close to being a true #2, and often pitches now like it. I absolutely believe Berrios will be a 2 in a season or two. The jury is still out on Duffey to be sure, BUT, he got better and better with each level and each year in the minors before his roughly third of a MLB season in '15 when he was outstanding. That is impressive!

May absolutely deserves to be in the rotation, until or unless he PROVES he's got a better future in the bullpen than as a starter. Gonsalves is a full season ahead of Stewart and Thorpe both, IMO. Not unreasonable to expect a Berrios type season in 2016 from him.

And none of this even includes Hughes.

Your criteria may be as little as a season away from fruition.

#3 and defense, the Royals way, seems the way to go. Make it a 6 inning game and make the plays in the field. Enough offense to have the lead or be close through 6, then go to the 'pen and the defensive specialists. 

We want to see Sano in the field. But if he can be the Twins Big Papi, things will happen. Regarding starters, the guys need to stay healthy and throw close to 200 innings and keep us in the game (4 runs or less) and then the bullpen needs to be five solid arms who pitch near perfect, holding leads. They need to have strikeout and ground-ball specialists. Plus, it will be interesting to see if Gordon and Kepler become positive pieces. Of course, the big piece in the next 3 seasons is still Joe Mauer. The team does revolve around him and where he bats and how he plays.

Feb 07 2016 11:37 PM

You forgot Jay as a potential starter. He might be a few years off but he has the potential, if not he could become part of that lights out Bullpen