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2020 Minnesota Twins Blueprint, version 1.0

Posted by Cory Engelhardt , 06 November 2019 · 1,951 views

Here is my first blueprint for the Twins offseason. I'm using baseballtradevalues.com to come up with the trade scenarios.

1) Let CJ Cron walk.
2) Re-sign Sergio Romo, 1 year 3 million. Re-sign Jason Castro, 1 years 6 million with an option.
3) Keep Odorizzi, either through QO or work out a 3 year deal.
4) Trade Eddie Rosario, Jordan Balazovic and Lewis Thorpe to Arizona for starter Zac Gallen. I REALLY like his upside, and he comes with 6 years of team control. His changeup and command would look great long term.
5) Trade Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker, Nick Gordon and Blayne Enlow to Miami for Brian Anderson. 4 years of team control, solid defensive 3rd baseman and can hit. This would move Miguel Sano to 1B. This might be an underpay in trade value, but I really think he would upgrade our infield defense.
6) Sign Madison Bumgarner, 4 year deal, 88 million. I think he is up for a 2nd wind in his career, like Justin Verlander has had with Houston.
7) Sign Jake Diekman, 1 year 8 million with an option.
8) Sign Alex Gordon, 1 year 13 million with an option.

C Mitch Garver 0.60
1B Miguel Sano 5.50
2B Luis Arraez 0.60
SS Jorge Polanco 4.0
3B Brian Anderson 0.60
LF Alex Gordon 13.0
CF Byron Buxton 3.50
RF Max Kepler 6.3
DH Nelson Cruz 12

Starting lineup total cost = 46.10 million

Bench
Jason Castro 6.0
Marwin Gonzalez 9.0
Lamonte Wade 0.60
Ehire Adrianza 3.0

Bench total cost = 18.6

Rotation
Madison Bumgarner 22.0
Jose Berrios 4.5
Jake Odorizzi 17.8, or give or take 15
Zac Gallen 0.60
Randy Dobnak (or Devin Smeltzer, until Duran/Graterol/et al are ready) 0.60

Rotation cost = 42.7 to 45.5, depending on Odorizzi signing a 3 year deal or taking the QO

Bullpen
Taylor Rogers 4.0
Tyler Duffey 1.3
Trevor May 2.5
Jake Diekman 8.0
Sergio Romo 3.0
Zack Littell 0.60
Cody Stashak 0.60
Graterol/Alcala/Smeltzer/churn of guys between AAA and the majors 0.60

Total bullpen cost = 20.6

Total team cost

Lineup = 46.1
Bench = 18.6
Rotation = 45.5 (I'm putting this in as if Odorizzi takes the QO)
Bullpen = 20.6
________________
Total = 130.8


We traded away a lot of prospect capital for the guys coming back. But we also would still, potentially have 4-5 top 100 prospects, all who could make their debuts this year, not including Graterol who made his debut this year. But there would certainly be room for Kirilloff and Lewis to push to make the team at some point in 2020 ongoing.


Thoughts?

  • howieramone2 and Greglw3 like this



I'm not sure I like either of those trades. Gallen is a borderline Top 50 pitching prospect, Balazovic will likely both be top 50-60 this year, Thorpe could be a good #4 starter, plus Rosario. 

And, not sure Brian Anderson is interesting enough to give up Larnach (top 80ish guy), plus 3 more guys?

I like Alex Gordon. 

I like Diekman, probably at $5-6 million rather than $8. I don't mind Bumgarner at 4/72... 4/88 seems generous. 

    • Cory Engelhardt, DocBauer and SF Twins Fan like this
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Cory Engelhardt
Nov 06 2019 10:12 AM

1) I can agree with that, as it was super tough to give up Balazovic. Still, Gallen threw 80 innings in the majors last year, and 133 and 147 the two years prior in the minors. Balazovic has topped out at 93 innings, but I still think he has a chance to be something. Gallen, to me,already looks like he is someone that we hope Balazovic could turn in to. Rosario leaving could hurt, as would Thorpe, but I love the potential. I also figured if our fans hate a trade, but don't loathe it with every fiber of their being, then it is probably fair :)

2) Brian Anderson has 4 years of team control, has had 3.9 and 3.8 Baseball Reference WAR in back to back years in Miami, and grades out well above average defensively, all while hitting 261/342/468 for a pretty bad Miami team. And I'd argue no one they are giving up is a true difference maker, even if all of them are solid/good.

3) The 3 free agents, those are guesses on money. I know 72 is what a lot of people are predicting for Bumgarner, but if 6 teams are offering 72, Twins may have to go above that to secure his services no?

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twinkiesfan11
Nov 06 2019 10:35 AM
1. Can’t picture Arizona being interested in trading Gallen after giving up quite a bit to get him this past trade deadline. Also feel that’s way too much to give up if they were open to dealing him.

2. Not interested in Anderson at that price at all but agree with the premise of dropping Cron, moving Sano to 1B and adding a defensive upgrade at 3B.
    • Cory Engelhardt and Rigby like this
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Cory Engelhardt
Nov 06 2019 11:42 AM

 

1. Can’t picture Arizona being interested in trading Gallen after giving up quite a bit to get him this past trade deadline. Also feel that’s way too much to give up if they were open to dealing him.

2. Not interested in Anderson at that price at all but agree with the premise of dropping Cron, moving Sano to 1B and adding a defensive upgrade at 3B.

 

1) You might be right. I wanted to shoot for trading for a pitcher with team control and that the Twins would like their stuff. I'm not certain it is an overpay. They gave up a very good prospect to get him 3 months ago. They might be open to gaining some good prospects/players for him now, no?

 

2) I'd argue the trade I brought up is an underpay for Anderson. He's only 26 and has been almost a 4 WAR player for 2 years in a row. Larnach, or the idea of Larnach, would be tough to lose. But the other 3 players that I named, are any of them future stars? Anderson is someone I see as being a core level player here.

Don't care much for these moves, I would however be interested in the hallucinogens you took to construct it.:)

    • tarheeltwinsfan likes this

Like the idea of the trade for Anderson.If you are willing to go 4/88 for Baumgardner, then why not pay more for Wheeler.  

Diekman seems high, and do not like him that much with the three batter minimum next year. 

Like most of this, but not sure about the move for Gallen, seems high to give up that much.  

Fixing the infield defense will mean a lot, lots of questions there. 

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Cory Engelhardt
Nov 07 2019 08:03 PM

Like the idea of the trade for Anderson.If you are willing to go 4/88 for Baumgardner, then why not pay more for Wheeler.  
Diekman seems high, and do not like him that much with the three batter minimum next year. 
Like most of this, but not sure about the move for Gallen, seems high to give up that much.  
Fixing the infield defense will mean a lot, lots of questions there.

I would totally go for Wheeler. I want either of them, or Ryu, on the team. I like Wheeler’s stuff more for sure. If he is here, that is good in my book.
Gallen I like more than most. I am all about trading for a pitcher though, someone young with team control. There are definitely other options though. Who else should they look at?
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howieramone2
Nov 08 2019 11:27 AM

This is well done. I like that you made us younger with Gallen and Anderson.

    • Cory Engelhardt likes this