Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

Front Page: Eddie Rosario's Actual Value Is an Offsea...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:27 AM
I shouldn't be surprised anymore. I really shouldn't.Baseball's award voters have overemphasized traditional baseball-card numbers like w...

Front Page: Trading for a Young Starter: Sandy Alcantara

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:22 AM
With numerous starting rotation holes to fill and plenty of other teams eager to sign free agents, the Twins seem destined to at least te...

Front Page: Offseason Blueprint: Spending Every Penny

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:09 AM
Jim Pohlad has had it up to here with you people. After checking his burner twitter account (@matthew_btwins) and once again seeing someo...

2020 Blueprint: Cooking up a championship

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:22 AM
In constructing my blueprint, I tried to blend my own style with that of the current management, which seems to 1) seek out value; 2) sta...

Front Page: The Underappreciated, Hard-Luck Legacy of Kyl...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:52 AM
From the very beginning, Kyle Gibson's career was defined by injury and disappointment. Coming out of the University of Missouri in 2009,...

Photo

Blueprint: Add Bauer, Gregorius, Betances

Posted by DannySD , 24 October 2019 · 1,520 views

2020 Offseason Plan

My basic theories/assumptions:
A. Be realistic. If your plan assumes Cole, Strasburg, Ryu, Rendon, Chapman, or Bumgarner will sign here, I think you are doing this exercise wrong.
B. Teams are likely to hang onto those solid #2/3 starters (Syndergaard, Minor, Ray, etc) in the offseason unless you overpay or they are trying to dump salary.
C. Keep our young hitting core intact.
D. Our top prospects are not quite ready.
E. Supplement existing team with the best starter, reliever, and position player we can realistically get.
F. Trade for an ace and a really good reliever at the deadline, unless 2020 is not our year or Berrios takes a big leap.
G. The FO is willing to spend up to $160 Million in salary to field a really nice team

NEW FACES:
1. trade for Trevor Bauer (something like Balazovic + Javier + Rijo/Vallimont)
- I see Bauer as the best gettable starter.
- his trade value is hurt by a bunch of factors but it's hard to say by how much. this could obviously backfire.
* backup plan: trade Rijo for Arrieta + salary relief
2. sign Didi Gregorius (1 year, $18 + player option)
- he'll have a strange market, and he'll want to be in the middle of a good lineup to build value so the Twins are a perfect fit for him. 2-3 years works also with Marwin gone after 2020, but I don't think he wants that.
- I'm assuming the Yankees are saving money and won't offer a QO
3. sign Dellin Betances (2 years/$22 + team option/buyout)
- I'm OK with the slight overpay, hard to say how much he'll get coming off a bunch of injuries.

COMING BACK:
1. pick up Nelson Cruz' option ($12)
- duh, done
2. re-sign Sergio Romo (2 years, $8)
- solid vet back there
3. re-sign Michael Pineda (2 years/$30 + team option)
- mike was our best pitcher the second half of 2019
4. re-sign Jake Odorizzi (3 years/$51)
- this will end up being a slight waste of money but needs to happen anyway
5. re-sign Kyle Gibson (1 year/$8 + team option)
- 3.62 ERA in 2018/career 4.29 FIP/nasty illness in 2019. why does everybody want to dump the Twins lifer? I think he will be a well-above-average #4/5 starter and a dominant reliever in the postseason.
6. Sign/extend Mitch Garver. (5 years/$50)
- yes I know he is about to turn 29

POSITION SWITCHES:
move Sano to 1B
move Polanco to 3B

OPENING DAY PAYROLL is around $158 million, I guessed on the arb numbers.

LINEUP:
1. RF Kepler ($7)
2. 3B Polanco ($4)
3. DH Cruz ($12)
4. 1B Sano ($6)
5. SS Gregorius ($18)
6. LF Rosario ($7)
7. C Garver ($2)
8. CF Buxton ($3)
9. 2B Arraez ($0.5)
Gonzalez ($9)
Astudillo ($0.5)
Wade ($0.5)
Adrianza ($3)
Lineup recap: replace Cron in the lineup with Gregorius, while improving the defense a bit and making Astudillo just a catcher.

STARTERS:
Bauer ($16.5)
Odorizzi ($17)
Berrios ($6)
Pineda ($15 adjusted to $12)
Gibson ($8)

BULLPEN:
Rogers ($5)
Betances ($11)
Romo ($4)
Duffey ($1.5)
Graterol ($0.5)
May ($3)
Littell ($0.5)
Smeltzer ($0.5)

POSTSEASON STAFF (projected):
1. Ace via midseason trade
2. Bauer
3. Pineda
4. Odorizzi
Berrios (until he gets past late-season faltering, he's in the pen in the postseason)
Betances
Reliever via midseason trade
Rogers
Duffey
Gibson
Romo
Graterol

THE DUMPED:
1. decline CJ Cron
- too much meh
4. decline Sam Dyson
- and send the Giants a nice gift basket full of sharp, dangerous objects
3. decline Martin Perez
- offer him a minor league deal
4. other FA position players (Castro, Schoop)
5. trade Jake Cave for a minor leaguer with options

REMOVE(D) From 40-Man:
Cave
Castro
Schoop
Cron
Torreyes
Lamarre
Miller
Dyson (possible 2 year Pineda-esque rehab deal)
Perez (offer minor-league deal)
Harper (offer minor-league deal)
Stewart (offer minor-league deal)
Hildenberger (offer minor-league deal)
Poppen (offer minor-league deal)

PROTECT from Rule 5:
Raley
Duran
Jax
Blankenhorn
Colina
** T. Wells

also still on the 40:
Thorpe, Shashak, Dobnak, Gordon, Alcala, Gonsalves, Romero
** Wells can be transferred to the 60-day DL after the season starts, which is why I protected him.

PITFALLS:
1. only 2 catchers to open the 40-man is not ideal, but should attract good minor league FAs.
2. not a ton of room to add payroll at the deadline unless attendance kicks ass the first half.
3. not many backup position players who are close to major league ready. Gordon, Raley, Blankenhorn, and a 3rd catcher (Rortvedt/Jeffers/Telis/other minor league FA) better be ready to play.

  • Kelly Vance and MN_ExPat like this



I just don't see the Reds dumping Bauer after getting him, they want to contend in a relatively weak central that could be getting weaker.

 

Cave is a very good 4th OF, by wRC+ he was a better hitter than Eddie Rosario. He's also an experienced OF when we have quite a few in AAA who need ABs. Wade/Raley/Rooker/ect

 

And Harper->Poppen are all under TC for a while, you can't give them minor league deals.

That's a lot of additions to the 40-man roster. Who do you end up bumping overall from the pitchers?

Bauer has repeatedly said he will not sign a long term contract, and wants to go year by year. I hope they sign Bumgarner. I see a resurgence, and he is a bulldog in the playoffs. We could use a little of that.

    • Kelly Vance likes this
Photo
Thebigalguy
Oct 26 2019 10:35 AM

I mostly like this. They could do worse than hire you. I don't like Bauer, both for the reasons above and because he's so convinced he's smarter than everybody in the room that he might be a problem when he decides to coach the other pitchers for free. I do like keeping Gibson if he's reasonable (and how could he not be, given this past, lost year?). Your list makes it clear there's a lot of decisions ahead for the front office. The hot stove league will be especially interesting this year for the Twins.

Bauer is a terrible human being. Just no.

 

18 mil is too much for Didi. I'm intrigued about adding a SS instead of a 1B though, as it could reshape this team's defense. Polanco to 2B, Sano/Arraez/Marwin platooning 3B/1B is intriguing.

 

Betances...maybe. 11 mil is a lot, but we have a couple years before the young core starts to become a budget problem. But I don't see him getting a 2 yr deal unless the market falls apart again.

Bauer is a terrible human being.

 

I'm a little curious at how you came to this conclusion? As that is an especially damming statement.

Photo
MMMordabito
Oct 28 2019 02:29 PM

 

Bauer is a terrible human being.

 

I'm a little curious at how you came to this conclusion? As that is an especially damming statement.

 

Likely this Deadspin piece including the horrendous burrito-eating method witnessed in the comments.

Signing Gregorius would be great even if he never played since the Twins wouldn't have to watch him play for another team and single-handedly destroy them every other game.