Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

Front Page: Twins Game Recap (8/21): Giolito Throws Compl...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 04:24 PM
After a huge night from the Minnesota Twins’ offense that was led by Nelson Cruz, and a perfect night from the bullpen, the Twins were se...

The Rays got their man at the deadline. Arggggh!

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 04:18 PM
I've mentioned former Miami Marlin and now Tampa Bay Ray RP Nick Anderson as an obvious Twins' deadline target for the pen previously. Th...

Front Page: Twins Minor League Report (8/20): Extra(s), E...

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 04:15 PM
It was a long day in the Minnesota Twins' farm system on Tuesday, as three of their six affiliate’s games went into extra innings. Hits w...

Game Thread "Harvey" Twins vs. White Sox 12:10pm...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 04:08 PM
A buddy o' mine is flying into the cities Monday, and thought to check out Target field which was a kindly sentiment, knowing he's not mu...

Front Page: 6 Potential Non-Roster September Call-ups Who...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 04:00 PM
For the last time under the current rules, teams will be able to add as many as 15 players to their active bench once the calendar turns...

Photo

Fun with BaseballTradeValues

Posted by AChase , 26 July 2019 · 727 views

A few weeks ago, I stumbled across a website called BaseballTradeValues.com. I set it aside for a while, but I was brought back to it after La Velle E. Neal reported the Twins interest in Noah Syndergaard. In his article for the Star Tribune, Neal mentions the Mets desire for a prospect package headlined by both Royce Lewis and Alex Kiriloff.

They're crazy, right? RIGHT?!

Probably, but how far off is it? The Cubs traded Gleyber Torres, then rated the 26th best prospect in the game by Keith Law, for a few months of a reliever recently suspended for domestic violence. The very next year, they traded Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease for Jose Quintana(!).

This is where Baseball Trade Values comes in. They've studied tons of real life trades and represent a player's trade value rather simply: Field value - salary = surplus. In the end, they arrive at their valuations by considering variables like years of control, inflation, injury risk, projection, etc. The bottom line is that each player is assigned a trade value, and it becomes very easy to compare players and make a deal. Take it with a grain of salt, but it's kind of a fun tool to play with and get a ballpark estimate of what it might take to make a trade.

(Has anyone else seen this site already? Perhaps Baseball Trade Values is common knowledge, in which case I probably sound like some guy telling you about a cool new stat called OPS.)

Back to the original question: Would it really take Lewis and Kiriloff to pry Thor from the Mets? This is what Baseball Trade Values has to say about it:

Mets get: (total value: 104.7)
  • Lewis (57.9)
  • Kiriloff (46.8)
Twins get: (total value: 87.1)
  • Syndergaard (87.1)

I think Baseball Trade Values (Can I call it BTV? I'll call it BTV.) confirms what most of us are thinking: the Mets would get the better end of that deal.

I can't think of anything that would get me more excited for the rest of the season than watching Thor take the mound at Target Field while mowing down Cleveland hitters, so I'm going to go ahead and try to make it happen. Thad Levine, are you listening? I think I've done the hard part here, you just have to make the call:

Mets get: (total value: 87.3)
  • Kiriloff (46.8)
  • Graterol (27.5)
  • Duran (13)
Twins get: (total value: 87.1)
  • Syndergaard (87.1)

What do we think? It's a huge price to pay, sure, but I think 2+ years of Syndergaard and the injury/bullpen risk of the pitching prospects going back make it worth it. Flags fly forever.

I think I'm going to keep messing around on BTV to get an idea of what it might cost to acquire each of the most talked about trade targets and post them here. It's going to be an exciting couple of days as we approach the deadline!




A couple of ideas. 1 potentially popular and 1 super unpopular.

Trade Schoop + upper minors prospect(s) for Dyson/Will Smith.

Trade for Lance Lynn. I've heard from a few different people that he won't cost much. Upside is he is an ace level pitcher (that's how he's pitched the last 12 months). Downside is he reverts to more of a mid rotation guy which is fine. We can still move Perez to the pen.

 

A couple of ideas. 1 potentially popular and 1 super unpopular.

Trade Schoop + upper minors prospect(s) for Dyson/Will Smith.

Trade for Lance Lynn. I've heard from a few different people that he won't cost much. Upside is he is an ace level pitcher (that's how he's pitched the last 12 months). Downside is he reverts to more of a mid rotation guy which is fine. We can still move Perez to the pen.

Trading for Lynn was mentioned on another thread and was met with a less-than-enthusiastic response, but I like the idea.