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Twins Fans, Dallas Keuchel is Not Worth the Hype

Posted by Peter Wall , 28 May 2019 · 2,032 views

dallas keuchel minnesota twins
At some point, you have to know when to cut bait and move on. For Twins fans, that time has come for Dallas Keuchel.

For the last 5 seasons, Keuchel has been the Astro’s homegrown ace. From his debut in 2012, Keuchel has slowly cemented himself as one of the best starting pitchers in the game. Save for a rocky 2016 and some early growing pains, Keuchel has been nothing but solid.

Anchored by Keuchel and Justin Verlander, acquired from the Tigers in August of 2017, the Houston Astros have been one of baseball’s best teams for the past 3 seasons. But Keuchel is now a free agent and many Twins fans are hoping that Minnesota eventually signs him.

However, if Minnesota elected to sign Keuchel, don’t expect the same results from Keuchel that Astros fans have grown accustomed to seeing from him. In fact, if Minnesota signed him, it is possible that Twins fans would see the Nolasco Fiasco 2.0.

In 2013, the season before the Twins signed him, Nolasco’s ERA was 3.70. In 2018, Keuchel had a 3.74 ERA. Now compare that to 2017, when Keuchel had an ERA of 2.90, and you’ll see a jump of +0.84.

This is not the only concerning statistic. Last season, Keuchel had a WHIP of 1.31. While it is not a critical tell-all stat, WHIP is helpful in determining a pitcher’s general number of base runners allowed in a given inning. Keuchel’s WHIP of 1.3 is far above his teammate Justin Verlander’s league-leading WHIP of 0.9.

Last season, Dallas Keuchel gave up a league-leading 211 hits. Even more alarming is his league-leading 874 batters faced, while only pitching 204.2 innings. If you do some simple math, that’s about 4.3 batters per inning. Think about that. That’s over 1 batter higher than the minimum every single inning, which accounts for his WHIP of 1.3.

Besides all of these influential, albeit alarming, statistics, there is another reason to move on from Dallas Keuchel. This current front office, which has more than proven its competency with its savvy moves this season, hasn’t even given fans a whiff of the notion that it is looking at signing Keuchel. This speaks volumes in and of itself.

The duo of Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have taken this ballclub from one of baseball’s worst to one of the best in the league in three short seasons. Their moves have positioned the ballclub to compete deep into the postseason this year and hopefully for years to come. There comes a time when fans need to trust their respective front offices and believe that they know that they are doing. For Twins fans, that time is now.

Someone will sign Dallas Keuchel, and soon. After June 6th, when the draft ends and teams will no longer lose a draft pick when they sign Keuchel, there will likely be a bidding war for his services. Perhaps Keuchel will return to his Cy Young form and I will have to eat crow. But if I were betting man, Keuchel will be at best just eh this season. I think so, and Twins fans should think so too.

  • luckylager, jameshenke78, Kevin and 1 other like this



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Joe A. Preusser
May 29 2019 08:14 AM
Agreed on all counts for Keuchell. Also that reliever guy whos name escapes me because I haven't heard or read it in so long. Jimmy Kimbrell? Pass on him too.
    • luckylager and wagwan like this
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terrydactyls1947
May 29 2019 08:50 AM
Jimmy Kimmel is a late show host. Maybe you're thinking of Craig Kimbrel?
    • gil4 likes this
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woolywoolhouse
May 29 2019 09:23 AM

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    • Joe A. Preusser and TFRazor like this
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the_brute_squad
May 30 2019 05:33 AM

Kimbrell is definitely worth pursuing but you can make a case to sniff around Kuechel.

His last year wasn't great but many of his numbers hover around his career numbers. Last year was also the first without Jason Castro. That may have played a part in his effectiveness especially if you're considering his whip. Another thing to consider is the defense playing behind him. You don't get more solid than the Astros middle infield and the same can be said about the Twins outfield. Lastly, his defense and experience on a winning team can only be seen as an asset.

 

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railmarshalljon
May 31 2019 04:41 PM

 

Kimbrell is definitely worth pursuing but you can make a case to sniff around Kuechel.

His last year wasn't great but many of his numbers hover around his career numbers. Last year was also the first without Jason Castro. That may have played a part in his effectiveness especially if you're considering his whip. Another thing to consider is the defense playing behind him. You don't get more solid than the Astros middle infield and the same can be said about the Twins outfield. Lastly, his defense and experience on a winning team can only be seen as an asset.

 

Castro's last season with the Astros was '16, so second season. Also, Keuchel is a ground ball pitcher, which makes the infield offense a bit more important than outfield defense.

I didn't realize Keuchel gave up the most hits in baseball last year - that could certainly be a reason for why teams have stayed away.