
Martin Perez: Kyle Gibson and Charlie Morton Revisited
Posted by
whatyouknowtwinsfan
,
31 January 2019
·
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martin perez kyle gibson charlie morton
Thanks to brooksbaseball.net (Gibson, Morton, and Perez) and Fangraphs for the data.
You know the profile of a sinkerballer, the low-90s fastball, no strike out pitch, and wildly inconsistent. It fits the mold of the newest Twin, Martin Perez, whose career struggles have led many to question the move. Here, I offer a rationale for the move using two previous sinkerballers who changed their repertoire and transformed their careers through increased velocity and relying on a breaking pitch to strike hitters out.
It's important first to distinguish Perez's career pitch percentages in comparison to Morton's and Gibson's at the points of their transitions in repertoire.
Charlie Morton signed with the Houston Astros in 2017. The changes Houston made were immediate and effective. Over the 2017 and 2018 seasons, here were the results.
While Kyle Gibson didn't see the large velocity increase that Houston's program did in helping transform Morton, a noticeable uptick in velocity as well as better slider usage led to a career year. Here's Kyle Gibson's 2018 numbers in the following categories:
What should the Twins do in 2019 to Martin Perez to see results similar to Gibson and Morton? I propose a few things.
You know the profile of a sinkerballer, the low-90s fastball, no strike out pitch, and wildly inconsistent. It fits the mold of the newest Twin, Martin Perez, whose career struggles have led many to question the move. Here, I offer a rationale for the move using two previous sinkerballers who changed their repertoire and transformed their careers through increased velocity and relying on a breaking pitch to strike hitters out.
It's important first to distinguish Perez's career pitch percentages in comparison to Morton's and Gibson's at the points of their transitions in repertoire.
- Kyle Gibson (career through 2017):
- Sinker-41.4%
- 4-Seam-17.82%
- Changeup-16.04%
- Slider-20.06%
- Curve-4.68%
- Avg. Sinker Velocity: 92.2 MPH
- ERA: 4.70
- K%: 16.0%
- K/9: 6.2
- FIP: 4.35
- Charlie Morton (career through 2016):
- Sinker: 48.6%
- 4-Seam: 17.26%
- Changeup: 4.03%
- Slider: 1.35%
- Curve: 20.07%
- Cutter: 3.29%
- Split: 5.31%
- Avg. Sinker Velocity: 92.14 MPH
- ERA: 4.54
- K%: 16.0%
- K/9: 6.3
- FIP: 4.10
- Martin Perez (career):
- Sinker: 37.52%
- 4-Seam: 23.33%
- Changeup: 19.37%
- Slider: 10.89%
- Curve: 8.89%
- Avg. Sinker Velocity: 93.16 MPH
- ERA: 4.63
- K%: 13.9%
- K/9: 5.46
- FIP: 4.44
Charlie Morton signed with the Houston Astros in 2017. The changes Houston made were immediate and effective. Over the 2017 and 2018 seasons, here were the results.
- Sinker: 35.15%
- 4-Seam: 21.04%
- Changeup: 0.19%
- Slider: 0.52%
- Curve: 29.15%
- Cutter: 8.07%
- Split: 5.85%
- Avg. Sinker Velocity: 95.42 MPH
- ERA: 3.36
- K%: 27.7%
- K/9: 10.4
- FIP: 3.53
While Kyle Gibson didn't see the large velocity increase that Houston's program did in helping transform Morton, a noticeable uptick in velocity as well as better slider usage led to a career year. Here's Kyle Gibson's 2018 numbers in the following categories:
- Sinker-33.93%
- 4-Seam-23.84%
- Changeup-11.01%
- Slider-21.01%
- Curve-10.21%
- Avg. Sinker Velocity: 93.42 MPH
- ERA: 3.62
- K%: 21.7%
- K/9: 8.19
- FIP: 4.13
What should the Twins do in 2019 to Martin Perez to see results similar to Gibson and Morton? I propose a few things.
- Change his mechanics to increase velocity.
- Decrease use of the sinker while increasing 4-seam use.
- Determine a swing and miss pitch for Perez that either gets increased use (like Morton) or is designed specifically to put hitters away (like Gibson). His changeup looks to be the most promising, generating a whiff rate of 17.12% in his career.
- nclahammer and nasu1970 like this
It was reported that Houston was willing to sign Perez, though I don't think it was mentioned what sort of deal was considered. With Houston having MLB's best pitcher development program, it does suggest that Perez has something to work with. Good to see your Morton/Gibson comparison. Collin McHugh was picked up by Houston on waivers. Maybe there is reason to be hopeful about the Perez signing.