Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

2019 priorities. Literally, a group wide priority list

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 05:20 PM
Our current FO has almost, to the day, been on the job, for 2 years now. And we've seen 2 drafts, 2 off season's of work, changes on the...

Baseball America's Top Ten Twins Prospects

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 04:59 PM
Looks like Mike Berardino was again in charge of the Twins rankings for Baseball America's Top Prospects. Here are his choices for the to...

NBA 2018-19 Thread

Minnesota Timberwolves Talk Today, 02:49 PM
You all probably know I’m a Lakers guy by now. But, I like you guys, so I want to keep talking hoops on TD. This season is going to be F...

Twins stuff from around the Web (Fangraphs, Twitter, Athl...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 02:28 PM
Per request.....new thread! this seems like a really odd post to start with, which makes sense for a thread about the Twins and Internet....

Joe Mauer Retirement Press Conference

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 02:12 PM
Joe Mauer's press conference just concluded.    Holy emotional. Was great to see and watch. And it was very cool that so many p...

Photo

2018-2019 Offseason Primer

Posted by John Miller , 31 October 2018 · 616 views

This is my first blog with Twins Daily, but if you don’t know, I co-host the Across the Meadow Podcast with Jeremy Nygaard. First, I will get into a little about me before I get into my offseason predictions. I was in the Marine Corps for five years and now, I am majoring in Journalism at the University of Minnesota. My life summed up in one sentence. I look forward to writing a little more on here as I continue to hone my craft.
Let’s get to it. The Twins are going into an offseason that just might be one of their most important yet. They got their manager in Rocco Baldelli and now they need to fill out the rest of the coaching staff. I won’t try to predict who the Twins will add to the coaching staff because hardly anyone knows or has enough knowledge to know who the Falvine regime will choose.
Bye-Bye Robbie Grossman
If you listen to the podcast, you would know that I am no fan of Robbie Grossman. Does he get on base at a decent clip? Yes. Does he provide anything else? No, he does not. Grossman may be listed as a back up outfielder, but lets face it, he doesn’t have a position because he’s not a good fielder. He ended the year on a tear and finished with a .751 OPS. He plays a lot of DH, and to me, you need a better slash line than what he has given the Twins in order to justify having him there. I am non-tendering Robbie Grossman. There are players who match what he can do in the lower levels or provide something else of value. Lamonte Wade for example. Jake Cave should be the defacto 4th OF who plays quite a lot throughout the week and Grossman should not be stealing at bats from him.
Other players that I am outrighting are, Johnny Field, Zach Granite, Chase DeJong, Tyler Duffey, John Curtiss and Aaron Slegers and Alan Busenitz. I was the biggest Duffey fan when he came up, however, he just hasn’t been able to put it all together. He doesn’t have a great fastball and his curveball, which is his best pitch, seems to catch way too much of the plate and did I mention that his career ERA is 5.46? That number was almost two points higher for the 2018 season. He also had a career low in strikeouts per nine-innings with 6.8. Not good enough.
40-Man Additions.
For the podcast me and Jeremy wanted to leave one roster spot open on the roster to allow for a Rule-5 pick. I’m adding five players to the 40 man roster to make it 34 players. The players are, Nick Gordon, LaMonte Wade and Luis Arraez, Jake Reed and Tyler Jay. Tyler Jay might come as surprise to some people, but I’m just not ready to give up on him just yet. He was yo-yoed around from starter to reliever, he has dealt with a few injuries and that has resulted in a putrid stat line. My thought is, if you can waste 40-man roster spots on guys like Ryan Lamarre and Johnny Field, then you can waste one spot on seeing if the former sixth overall pick from the 2015 draft can turn his career around. Jeremy brought up a good point in our podcast, if someone does take him the the Rule-5 draft, he will likely be returned. However, it helps that Jay is left handed and you can never give up on left-handers.
Nick Gordon’s 2018 season is one he would like to forget. Gordon had an abysmal year once he moved up to AAA, the lack of power is scary, his fielding still is a work in progress, he’s not nearly as fast as his brother, Dee, but he has played well at every level but AAA. I wouldn’t say this is a make or break year for Gordon, but it’s a year where he can’t afford to play like he did for the last 99 games of the year while at AAA. He only had 19 extra base hits in 382 at bats giving him a .283 slugging percentage. His stock has taken a huge drop and it would have been nice to plug him in at second base to start the year and now you don’t know for sure what you have in him.

Free Agent Additions.
As I said above, my roster sits at 34 players. I am adding five free agents to leave that one spot open for a Rule-5 pick, after this my roster will sit at 39. For pitchers, the Yankees are going to sign Patrick Corbin, so we can kiss that train good-bye. The rest of the of the free agent pitchers available are all nearing the age where the might need a walker by the end of their next free agent deal. Guys like Sabathia, Morton, and David Price to name a few.
I am signing three pitchers, one starter, two relievers and two hitters. The one starting pitcher that I am signing is Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi had a career year and will be paid like it. He was fantastic in the World Series with the Red Sox. I’m signing him to a 4-year, $58 million deal. Does he have a little bit of a Rocco Baldelli connection from his time with Tampa Bay Rays? I don’t know, but I do know that he finished with a 1.126 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 and can hit the upper 90’s on the radar with his fastball. He is also only 28-years-old. The Twins don’t have a starter like Eovaldi, but, they sure do need one. The elbow history is scary, but we will cross the bridge if the time comes.
The first reliever the Twin should sign is Andrew Miller. I want a reliever who is going to come in and be the ace of the bullpen. Reed was signed to be that, he wasn’t that. I know Miller had a down year, ERA over four, but he was injured. 2 years, $24 million is what I am giving him. Giving him an offseason to get his health back should allow him to regain form and be the dominant reliever he has been throughout the course of his career.
The next reliever I am going after is a guy who can bring the heat. Joe Kelly. After watching Joe Kelly throw 100 mph heat in the playoffs I want him on my team. His walk rate will scare off some teams, 2 years, 14 million is not a bad contract. Is his walk rate scary, yes. A failed starter with St. Louis he transitioned into the bullpen. He has been okay, as I said, the walk rate is not good, his career walk rate is 3.7/9. You never want your reliever to walk that many guys. However, not many pitchers can throw as hard as Kelly and every bullpen needs people who can blow it past the opposing hitters. Kelly can be that guy, but you have to take the good with the bad.
Now it’s time for the hitters. There are lots of options in Free Agency. The chances the Twins sign Manny Machado are zero-to-none, but they should at least try. The guy is a once in a generational talent and just 25-years old. I don’t think we get him, but the front office better be kicking the tires on him.
The hitter I want…is a little out there. Hear me out on this one. This might be a little crazy, but I have given this a lot of thought and I think it makes a lot of sense. If I am the Twins I am trying to get the most out of Miguel Sano. What better than to pair him up with a future Hall of Famer. Adrian Beltre is who I am trying to target. He’s still hitting and fielding well. He will be 40 when the season starts, he’s a no nonsense but have fun guy. My contract for him 1-year deal worth $14 million, with a player option for the same amount the second year. I think that he would provide Sano with the leadership that he needs in order to pull his head of his you know where. Beltre is from the Dominican Republic, as is Sano and it helps that they play the same position. It’s not just Sano that he will be helping, he will become the leader of a clubhouse that is in desperate need of one, which will lighten the load a little bit off new Manager Baldelli.
The last free agent signing is coming straight out of Coors Field, DJ LeMahieu. LeMahieu Hits better away from Coors Field, he is very good defensively, he still hits for a good average, his OBP is okay and his slugging is over .400. He is also only 30-years-old. A 3-year, $38 million contract is okay and by the time he is 33, he will be off the books. I think Jorge Polanco can play good enough at shortstop until Royce Lewis is ready and then we can shift him over to 2nd base.
Payroll: $130 million
What Does the Line-up Look Like?
Catcher- Castro and Garver platoon.
First Base- Tyler Austin
Second Base- DJ LeMahieu
3rd Base- Miguel Sano and Adrian Beltre Platoon.
Shortstop- Jorge Polanco
CF- Byron Buxton
RF- Max Kepler
LF- Eddie Rosario
DH- Sano/ Beltre/ Cave/ Garver
Bench- Astudillo / Cave / Adrianza
Pitching Staff:
SP 1: Berrios
SP 2: Gibson
SP 3: Eovaldi
SP:4: Gonsalves
SP: 5: Odorizzi
Bullpen:
May, Reed, Miller, Kelly, Pineda, Mejia, Drake, Rogers.

Listen to the Across the Meadow Podcast discussing this and more!

http://acrossthemead...fseason-primer

  • Cory Engelhardt and nclahammer like this



Photo
FargoFanMan
Oct 31 2018 10:30 PM
I like the move for Beltre and LeMahieu. Have always liked both. I would keep Polanco at short with that. I think there needs to be a trade for a bigger name pitcher or I’m a big proponent of realmuto. Add a bigger trade in there with what you have and the off-season is an A in my book.
    • nclahammer and Miller1234 like this

DeJong is the only name I would not waive off your list.Evoldi is very good, but think you are low on him.I suggested in another thread giving Corbin 5/110.May be a little high, but am willing to go there with $0 on the books after 2019.  

I would give Arraez a shot at 2B and put more money into pitching.Grossman I can take or leave (I like the OB, but do not like the fielding), maybe the Reed claim today is a tipoff on how the FO is thinking.I am wondering if the Twins are considering starting Buxton in AAA and having him force his way up. 

I like your prospective signing of Miller, or Britton if that fails.Kelly may be an overreaction, but Twins will need to find a second great to very good reliever to contend.

Not sold on Jay, but he could well be returned if claimed, we shall see.

I think we would all love to have Realmuto on our team, I think the asking price will be through the moon for him. Think of the Yellich trade and add better prospects. I'm going to do a blog on possible trade targets in the next coming week or so. 

I like the move for Beltre and LeMahieu. Have always liked both. I would keep Polanco at short with that. I think there needs to be a trade for a bigger name pitcher or I’m a big proponent of realmuto. Add a bigger trade in there with what you have and the off-season is an A in my book.

 

I think you're a little low on that offer to Corbin. He is the best FA pitcher available this year, I think he gets 5/125 at least. I could be wrong. I think Arraez has a little more to prove before we can pencil him into the Major League lineup. He is only 21 years old and had a wasted year due to injury. Let's let him develop. If you would rather invest in pitching than 2nd base, then we would likely see Adrianza fill that void. 

DeJong is the only name I would not waive off your list.Evoldi is very good, but think you are low on him.I suggested in another thread giving Corbin 5/110.May be a little high, but am willing to go there with $0 on the books after 2019.  

I would give Arraez a shot at 2B and put more money into pitching.Grossman I can take or leave (I like the OB, but do not like the fielding), maybe the Reed claim today is a tipoff on how the FO is thinking.I am wondering if the Twins are considering starting Buxton in AAA and having him force his way up. 

I like your prospective signing of Miller, or Britton if that fails.Kelly may be an overreaction, but Twins will need to find a second great to very good reliever to contend.

Not sold on Jay, but he could well be returned if claimed, we shall see.

 

Photo
ChrisKnutson
Nov 02 2018 01:57 PM
Losing confidence in Miller as a “bullpen ace,” and I definitely don’t wanna pay him like one. Which is why the we’d better of signing a couple quality bullpen arms (like Allen and Kelly) (or Herrera and Wilson) and then give out cheap 1 year contracts/minor league contracts to guys who’re coming back from an injury/ or an injury plagued season (A.J. Ramos, David Phelps, Boone Logan, Drew Storen, Carson Smith, etc).

Also, I don’t think we really even need to commit anything more than a 1yr/$10M on a SP this offseason, excluding Eovaldi (highly unlikely tho), meaning NO Corbin or Keuchel because their high prices would only take away from other areas of need such as the nfield, the bullpen, and an actual run producer; and besides, it’s not like they’d ever come MN anyways. And LeMehieu sounds nice and all, but I’m pretty sure he’d rather go to the Chicago Cubs as speculated. And when it comes to Beltre, the reason why he’ll never be a Minnesota Twin is very same reason why Joe Mauer never did, and never will, play for the Boston Red Sox, or any other team.

Before he re-upped with the Dodgers, I was pretty interested in David Freese, but he wasn’t the only veteran I was interested in. If they’re unable to work out a new deal with their 2018 clubs, the Twins FO should be all over Jed Lowrie, Nelson Cruz, and maybe even Adam Jones.
Photo
jorgenswest
Nov 03 2018 08:18 AM
I want to keep those pitchers in the organization and would not remove them from the 40 until a spot is needed. As teams add players in free agency and rule 5 it will be much more difficult to find space for a waiver claim. Those claims are much easier now.

In fact, I would much rather have those pitchers in AAA off the 40 than a rule 5 pitcher in the bullpen. That rule 5 pitcher is going to increase the need for a 13th pitcher and limit roster flexibility due to lack of options. My plan is to be competitive this year and every player must be ready to contribute to a winning team.
John Miller Team Blue Print