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Free Agency / Re-Signings 2020-21 Offseason

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Off-Season Blueprint: Punting at DH

Posted by Vanimal46 , 04 December 2020 · 2,516 views

It's Friday afternoon, and I'm counting the minutes until the weekend. Let's make a plan.

For this exercise, I started with Matthew Taylor's spreadsheet on Twinspayroll.com, and used $125 million as the top spending level. My goal is to fall $5-10 million under that to reflect closer to a 15% payroll discount.

When I started the exercise, I wondered how we could best allocate the budget if we elected not to re-sign Nelson Cruz.

Let's get started...

The spreadsheet shows these roster slots available to fill:

LF
DH
4th OF
Utility
Utility
Backup C

Along with 4 bullpen slots and 2 slots in the starting rotation.

Starting amount: $84.6 Million

Internal Adds:

In this blueprint, I gave LF, 4th OF, Backup C, 5th starter, and the last 2 bullpen slots to internal prospects.

Alex Kirilloff gets my opening day nod in LF. If the team trusted him to start game 2 of the playoffs, they should trust him to start on Opening Day. By seniority, I chose Jake Cave as the 4th OF with a very short leash. Ryan Jeffers showed in the shortened season that he's ready for prime time and makes the team platooning with Garver. The Twins still have 3-4 prospects in the mix for the 5th spot, and I think one of them will win it. For fun, I chose Jhoan Duran. For the last two bullpen slots, Cody Stashak and Lewis Thorpe made the cut. I think Smeltzer and Thorpe will need to move to the bullpen this winter to have a shot at making the team.

Running Amount: $88.2 Million

Free Agents:

SP #4 - Corey Kluber $10 million - This guy maybe toast. However, I can't help thinking what if he's healthy? There's very few besides Trevor Bauer who have Cy Young caliber stuff. I take that gamble with this regime's usual 1 + option year contact.

RP Archie Bradley $6.5 million - Bradley instantly becomes the top free agent bullpen arm, and I think he's got the stuff to stay strong for another 2-3 years. I would offer 2/$13 and see if he bites.

RP Tyler Clippard $3 million - Clippard was rock solid in the pen last year, and I'm happy to re-sign him for another season.

Utility - Hanser Alberto $1 million - Admittedly I know nothing about this guy other than a quick glance at Baseball Reference. This isn't a hill I'm going to die on...

DH Yasiel Puig $2 million - Here's the payoff for the blog title. I punted DH by not allocating $15 million towards the position and elect toward a rotational effort. Puig is still young enough, hits RH, and can play in the OF too.

Running Amount: $110.73 million

Trades:

I only made one trade since they are impossible to predict. I really liked one of our member's suggestions to trade for Chris Taylor on the LA Dodgers. I have been looking for the post to give proper credit where its due and can't find it. Sorry!

Chris Taylor fits the need for depth at 2B, SS, and the OF. He has 1 year left on his contract at $7.8 million. I won't claim to know exactly what it would take to acquire him. However, I believe it won't take more than a prospect playing in the lower levels of the minors, and doesn't affect anyone in consideration for a 2021 MLB roster spot.

ALL IN COST: $118.53 million




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Matthew Taylor
Dec 04 2020 03:19 PM

I'm starting to come around on Kluber as a 1-year flyer similar to Rich Hill.Also a big fan of your bullpen options. Think Bradley on a 2-year deal would be really solid. Nice work!

    • LA VIkes Fan likes this
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tony&rodney
Dec 04 2020 03:27 PM

This is a very reasonable take for the next Twins roster. You come in pretty low and favor the owner's pockets and there isn't anything wrong with that position.

The analysis of the Atlanta Braves' finances and a few of the contracts handed out thus far indicate there are monies to continue baseball on a financial basis similar to last year before the truncated season. I would expect a budget closer to $135-145 million for the Twins this coming season. Whatever the outcome, I support the Twins and this plan is eminently reasonable.

Agreed Tony&Rodney. I purposely went for the 10-15% payroll reduction to see what it would look like. If the payroll is at $135-145 million then this blueprint shows there will be room for Cruz and maybe a better bench player too.

Thanks for stopping by and commenting! I’m sure I’ll be bored again this winter and come up with other blueprints.

Found it! Doctor Gast was the TD member who made the suggestion of Chris Taylor. 

http://twinsdaily.co...-greatest-need/

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Doctor Gast
Dec 04 2020 04:46 PM

Thank you Vanimal! Chris Taylor would be my lone trade also, it should take a lower prospect. Looking forward to more of your blueprints, things will be awfully boring until after New Years & then it`ll get very exciting

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tony&rodney
Dec 04 2020 05:36 PM

I liked a suggestion by Nash Walker some time ago for Ketel Marte, but agree wholeheartedly with any possibility at Chris Martin as well. Love Martin, an excellent ballplayer, but he does K often. You can't wrong if you have Chris Martin as a utility player. Why would the Dodgers trade him?

 

I liked a suggestion by Nash Walker some time ago for Ketel Marte, but agree wholeheartedly with any possibility at Chris Martin as well. Love Martin, an excellent ballplayer, but he does K often. You can't wrong if you have Chris Martin as a utility player. Why would the Dodgers trade him?

Ketel Marte is another excellent trade candidate. 4 years of control at a very reasonable price. I assume that's going to take 1-2 players we are considering for a 2021 MLB spot plus another lower level minor leaguer. 

As far as why would the Dodgers trade Taylor. I think when value presents itself they would move on an expiring contract for a lottery ticket. They do have a replacement on roster already in Gavin Lux. He got his feet wet, and as a top prospect they will want to get him at-bats. Not to mention their pipeline is crazy deep. Who knows, they may have another replacement waiting in the minors too. 

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yeahyabetcha
Dec 04 2020 08:11 PM
I won’t comment on the trade, to hard to predict those. 2 million for Puig sounds too cheap, and if you really want to punt at DH, why not Rooker? And why does Marwin coming back never get any consideration, he was a pretty valuable bench player until 2020 came along.

Solid effort with this blueprint. The idea of making Polanco the super utility and sign a free agent SS or trade for one makes a lot of sense too.