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Twins Showing Interest in Wade Miley

Posted by Andrew Thares , 21 January 2018 · 1,258 views

pitching wade miley rounding third
Twins Showing Interest in Wade Miley The Twins have made a concerted effort this offseason to improve their pitching staff with additions of Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke, Addison Reed and Michael Pineda. However, it doesn’t appear that any of those moves will be a limiting factor as the Twins look to make further additions. Earlier this week, Derek Falvey said that “he doesn’t believe the Twins have any major budget constraints to sign a much-needed starter.” This is good news for Twins fans that are hoping that the Twins will sign Yu Darvish, but it also means that they are considering other options to bolster their pitching staff as well. One of the potential options that the Twins are showing interest in is 31-year-old Wade Miley.

Wade Miley isn’t the sexiest name out there on the starting pitcher market, but he could be a value grab for the Twins as they look to add depth to their rotation. One thing the Twins will be able to count on in Miley is his durability, as he has averaged 186 innings per season over the last six years. Miley has a respectable 4.38 ERA, and 3.95 xFIP, over his career, though he has been suspect of late with a 5.48 ERA over the past two seasons. This will make Miley a cheap signing, that the Twins could take a flyer on.

When digging into Miley’s peripheral numbers, it appears that he is poised for a bounce back season in 2018. Despite the 5.48 ERA in 2016 and 2017 combined, Miley had an xFIP that was more than a full run lower at 4.34. This is due in large part to Miley’s HR/FB jumping to 16.2% and 19.4% in the last two years respectively. This is up from the 10.6% HR/FB that Miley had averaged in his career before 2016. A lot of this can be explained by the fact that Miley spent part of 2016, and all of 2017 as a member of the Baltimore Orioles, who play in notoriously hitter friendly Camden Yards. If you put Miley in a more pitcher friendly park in 2018, his HR/FB ratio will almost surely go down, and along with it his ERA.

One area of concern for Miley entering 2018 is his walk rate. In 2017, Miley saw his BB/9 balloon from his 2.79 career average, all the way up to 5.32. This was by far the highest of any full time starting pitcher in 2017, as the next highest walk rate from a pitcher that threw at least 150 innings was Chad Kuhl’s 4.12 BB/9. This screams that this number is, in large part, a product of the random variation that comes from a sample size of just one season. It is very reasonable to assume that Miley’s walk rate might regress back closer to his career norms in 2018. It could also be helpful for Miley to get away from the Orioles nightmare pitching situation (Orioles starters had a 5.70 ERA in 2017, the worst of any team since the 2012 Rockies).

If the Twins do find themselves in a situation where they are unable to sign one of the more prolific starters that are still available in free agency, Wade Miley might just be an okay option for the Twins to either fall back on, or complement a different move with. Given the current state of the free agent market, and the fact that the Orioles decided to pay the $500K to buyout their $12MM team option for Miley in 2018, the Twins should be able to sign Miley to a one or two-year deal, in the $7M - $10M per year range.




They are looking at Miley as a value sign. I took that to mean if they could get him cheaply. They would still be able to sign Darvish if they sugned Miley
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twinsfanstreif
Jan 21 2018 01:41 PM
My big question is why? To me he isn't an upgrade over Majia or even Gibson, he's more of a 4/5 guy but if we signed him he would only block Gonsalves, May, and Romero from getting any sort of meaningful time
    • adorduan, DocBauer, Platoon and 3 others like this
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Andrew Thares
Jan 21 2018 02:05 PM

 

My big question is why? To me he isn't an upgrade over Majia or even Gibson, he's more of a 4/5 guy but if we signed him he would only block Gonsalves, May, and Romero from getting any sort of meaningful time

Because it has been proven time and time again that depth in the pitching rotation is a great thing. It can be almost guaranteed that 1 or 2 of their starters will miss a considerable amount of time this season with an injury, because well they are pitchers and pitchers get hurt a lot. When that happens, it will be nice to not be forced into calling up Gonsalves or Romero to fill those innings if the front offices thinks they could use more time in AAA to develop. Trust me there will be plenty of innings to go around.

    • howieramone2 likes this

no,just no.I thought we done bottom feeding?

    • h2oface, Platoon, Dave The Dastardly and 1 other like this

No thank you.

 

Not because I don't agree that depth is important, but because I'm not sure he's an upgrade over anyone in line to get starts this year.

 

Certainly not Santana and Berrios, and probably not Gibson or Mejia. I think May, Jorge, Gonsalves, Romero, Littel, etc. probably offer up just as much short-term help as this guy.

Depth of good pitchers is a good thing. The Twins have/had depth. The don't need more bad depth, especially aging and going downhill the last two years. Why one "assumes" he is ready for a bounce back as he ages..... especially with the walks skyrocketing.... is beyond my comprehension.

    • jud6312 likes this

Given the last couple of years of Miley's career he might be looked at as depth for AA

    • jud6312 likes this
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howieramone2
Jan 22 2018 09:35 AM

I don't know anything about Miley, but I believe we will make this type of signing, in addition to one of the top 4. I don't want to hear about blocking. The fear of blocking lead to 2016, and in particular Berrios crapping the bed.

If we're talking about a minor league deal, fine.I'm 99% sure we're not.

    • Hosken Bombo Disco and brightside like this
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Hosken Bombo Disco
Jan 22 2018 04:20 PM

 

Because it has been proven time and time again that depth in the pitching rotation is a great thing. It can be almost guaranteed that 1 or 2 of their starters will miss a considerable amount of time this season with an injury, because well they are pitchers and pitchers get hurt a lot. When that happens, it will be nice to not be forced into calling up Gonsalves or Romero to fill those innings if the front offices thinks they could use more time in AAA to develop. Trust me there will be plenty of innings to go around.

I've got it the other way around than you.

 

The way to do it IMO is to sign the broken vet to the minor league deal and let Gonsalves or Romero start the season in the big league rotation. Then if the young guy falters you option the young guy and add Miley to the roster for a few starts. If the young guy doesn't falter then that's a good thing. 

    • Platoon and Dave The Dastardly like this
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Andrew Thares
Jan 22 2018 04:30 PM

 

I've got it the other way around than you.

 

The way to do it IMO is to sign the broken vet to the minor league deal and let Gonsalves or Romero start the season in the big league rotation. Then if the young guy falters you option the young guy and add Miley to the roster for a few starts. If the young guy doesn't falter then that's a good thing. 

Why would you have Gonsalves or Romero start the year at MLB? Gonsalves has just 4 AAA starts, and Romero has 0. I think that would be a bad idea, and is setting them up for what happened to Berrios in 2016. Give them more time in the minors, were they can actually focus on improving, as opposed to the majors where the only focus is winning. Then come mid-season, if they are developing well at AAA bring them up.

    • clutterheart likes this
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Hosken Bombo Disco
Jan 22 2018 04:49 PM

 

Why would you have Gonsalves or Romero start the year at MLB? Gonsalves has just 4 AAA starts, and Romero has 0. I think that would be a bad idea, and is setting them up for what happened to Berrios in 2016. Give them more time in the minors, were they can actually focus on improving, as opposed to the majors where the only focus is winning. Then come mid-season, if they are developing well at AAA bring them up.

True, but as long as they've done their work in AA, I don't personally believe pitchers need a whole lot of time in AAA before making their debuts. If and when Gonsalves falters he can be optioned.

 

In any case, Duffey or Mejia would be much preferable than either Gonsalves or Miley as fifth starters. (assuming Berrios, Santana, Gibson, and trade/free agent are the top four)

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RegularJoe62
Jan 22 2018 05:00 PM

 

Gonsalves has just 4 AAA starts, and Romero has 0. I think that would be a bad idea, and is setting them up for what happened to Berrios in 2016.

Can't argue with this, but I don't think the solution is adding a new option at the bottom. Put better starters ahead of Gibson and Mejia, not behind them. 

    • Hosken Bombo Disco likes this

This type of signing makes a lot of sense.In part because neither Hughes or May will be available on opening day.Hell, neither may be available until mid-season if then.

 

Add the possibility that Mejia doesn't merit a starting spot on opening day or ever in 2018, and you could easily need two starters when the season opens.   

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clutterheart
Jan 23 2018 02:31 PM

 

Because it has been proven time and time again that depth in the pitching rotation is a great thing. It can be almost guaranteed that 1 or 2 of their starters will miss a considerable amount of time this season with an injury, because well they are pitchers and pitchers get hurt a lot. When that happens, it will be nice to not be forced into calling up Gonsalves or Romero to fill those innings if the front offices thinks they could use more time in AAA to develop. Trust me there will be plenty of innings to go around.

 

I agree with you.Depth is good.My only thought is who do the Twins remove from the 40 man?I would guess they are thinking that as soon as they can they will move Pineda (and maybe Hughes) to the 60 day DL and use his 40 man spot for a guy like Miley or some other guy who can go back and forth from AAA to MLB level

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ChrisKnutson
Jan 23 2018 08:16 PM

This smells like a possible "failed starter" turned reliever scenario, I hope so.

 

It would be smart for the Twins to make a move like this because none of their lefty relievers really leave me feeling comfortable about our bullpen, especially Zach Duke. Former first round draft pick Wade Miley as a starter averaged 93 on his fast ball and so far has topped out at 96, maybe 97??, for a lefty he's got some heat, but imagine his smaller 6'0 frame coming out of the bullpen to be used as a max effort guy.

 

Despite their height differences I don't see why Miley can't follow the similar path taken by former 1st round starters that are now currently lefty relief aces (Andrew Miller, Mike Minor, and Brad Hand).

 

 

Dangle Darvish. Sign Miley. I don't know about baseball, but in retail I think that's called bait and switch? :).
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diehardtwinsfan
Jan 24 2018 11:16 AM

 

Because it has been proven time and time again that depth in the pitching rotation is a great thing. It can be almost guaranteed that 1 or 2 of their starters will miss a considerable amount of time this season with an injury, because well they are pitchers and pitchers get hurt a lot. When that happens, it will be nice to not be forced into calling up Gonsalves or Romero to fill those innings if the front offices thinks they could use more time in AAA to develop. Trust me there will be plenty of innings to go around.

Twins have plenty of depth as it is. I'd rather roll with an AAA arm than this type of depth. They need quality, not quantity at this point.