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Could Dobnak be an All Star?

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 Could Dobnak be an all star? With this terrific infield, I believe he could be. When Donaldson was in the line up Dobnak shine...

Cody’s Top 20 Twins Prospects: 11-15

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Who’s the Top Twins Prospect? Alex Kirilloff vs. Royce Lewis

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Many teams would be ecstatic to have the likes of Alex Kirilloff and Royce Lewis headlining their farm system. For Twins fans, a debate c...

Is Cruz a MUST signing? And what if he doesn't fit?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:22 PM
Let me state I love Cruz and want him back if possible. I not only believe he brings class, experience, knowledge and leadership to the t...

FA Value Shopping

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 11:03 AM
Just for fun-here is 1 player at each position that might be worth the money and my contract estimates:   C- Sandy Leon 1 year/1.5 m...

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ESPN - Roto fantasy rankings for the Twins

Posted by mikelink45 , 24 November 2020 · 1,702 views

fantasy ranks minnesota twins nelson cruz eddie rosario kenta maeda
ESPN - Roto fantasy rankings for the Twins As I said in my previous blog posting I am watching to see where the current Twins rank in ratings outside the Twin Cities. It is always suggestive to read a less biased - less connected view of our own team. So here is the ESPN Roto rankings for 2021 - https://www.espn.com...roto-rotisserie

Catcher
Garver is rated #7 (between Will Smith and Gary Sanchez)
Jeffers 34 (between Romine and Torrens
Avila is 47 between Trevino and Knapp

Of course Realmuto is 1, followed by Grandal and Perez, but I am surprised Garver stays this high. And I am surprised Jeffers is so low. Avila is in the right place and the Turtle is not rated.

1B
Sano 13 between Guerrero Jr and Cronenworth
Alex Kiriloff makes this list too at 35 between Moreland and Aguilar

Freeman is the leader with Bellinger and LaMehieu next. Interesting that they put Kiriloff as our second 1B - I would have expected Rooker.

2B
Arraez 43 between Diaz and Garcia

Merrifield and Albies head the list, but Arraez is really low on the list. I have to remember this is fantasy so his bat does not play as well here as it does in our lineup.

3B
Josh Donaldson in #17 between Urshela and Seager

That is a very low ranking for our big purchase. Is it because they do not see him staying healthy?

SS
Polanco is #15 between Villar and Gregorius
Royce Lewis is #40 between Simmons and Garcia
Gordon makes the list at #49 between Chang and Mercer

Like so many of our players Polanco is middle of the pack among starters. They do not have Ehire, but they put in Lewis and Gordon - they obviously expect some changes.


OF
Eddie Rosario #17 between Judge and Conforto
Max Kepler #19 between Conforto and Meadows
Byron Buxton #48 between Canha and Happ
Alex Kiriloff is $93 between Margot and Taveras

Betts, Acuna and Soto are their top three. Where is Rooker?

Designated Hitters
They only list three and Cruz is number one. No questions there.

Starting pitchers
Kenta Maeda is our top pitcher at #24
Jose Berrios is #34
Rich Hill #62
Michael Pineda #80
Jake Odorizzi #105
Randy Dobnak #114
Jordan Balazovic #121

deGrom, Cole and Bieber are the top three (of course) and I am most shocked that they would have Hill as our number three pitcher by these rankings. Our rotation is complete which is great, middle of the pack like our position players.

Relief Pitchers
Taylor Rogers #10
Sergio Romo #66
Caleb Thielbar #75

No Duffey, no May in their top 75. Hendriks, Hader and Chapman were the big three.


They also rank the top 300 regardless of position so pitchers and all positions are mixed. Here are our top 300 players:
33. Nelson Cruz
57. Eddie Rosario
66. Max Kepler
96. Kenta Maeda
109. Josh Donaldson
115. Jorge Polanco
116. Miguel Sano
131. Jose Berrios
148. Taylor Rogers
178. Byron Buxton
227. Rich Hill
229. Mitch Garver

That is 12 in the top 300 - with even distribution the teams would all have 10 and we have 10 in the top 200.

When I look at these lists I have a lot of questions:
  • Should we sign Cruz - he is our number one ranked player?
  • Eddie Rosario keeps getting ranked higher than anyone not named Cruz and yet TD keeps putting out that he will be DFA's, should be DFA'd. Why?
  • Taylor Rogers keeps getting love in these rankings and so does Garver. What did I miss?
  • Where is Michael Pineda? Was Rich Hill really better than him?





Fantasy baseball does not equal real baseball.

Cruz and Rosario are rated highly for fantasy baseball because they hit 3 and 4 on a good offense so they rack up lots of RBIs.

 

The more important thing to look at is the OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) of the player compared to the average for their position as well as how good they are defensively. Rosario rates about average offensively for a LF and is generally considered below average defensively despite a strong arm because of lots of wild bad throws and less range than average. He also hurts the team on the basepaths with how often he gets thrown out with boneheaded baserunning decisions. 

The most similar player to Eddie statistically is Corey Dickerson, he's literally the most similar player on baseball reference, and Dickerson is a better career hitter and generally regarded as a better fielder. As a free agent last offseason Dickerson signed a 2 year 17.5M deal with the Marlins. Eddie is projected to get ~10-13 million in arbitration this year depending on how arbitration works with the shortened season. Given how little Dickerson got as a FA last year with NO COVID revenue issues as a somewhat better player to Eddie and the fact that the Twins think Kirilloff is ready to play on just a minimum salary for 600k, it makes sense for the Twins to get rid of Eddie to save that money to spend elsewhere. Since Dickerson got less than Eddie will make in arbitration this year and most teams are acting strapped for cash, very few teams will be interested in trading for Eddie when they know the Twins will almost assuredly non tender him and they can sign him for his "true market value" of 5-7 million instead.

I hope this explains why most outside observers assume the Twins will non tender Rosario.

 

https://www.baseball...dickeco01.shtml

https://www.baseball...rosared01.shtml

    • mikelink45 likes this

 

Fantasy baseball does not equal real baseball.

Cruz and Rosario are rated highly for fantasy baseball because they hit 3 and 4 on a good offense so they rack up lots of RBIs.

 

The more important thing to look at is the OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) of the player compared to the average for their position as well as how good they are defensively. Rosario rates about average offensively for a LF and is generally considered below average defensively despite a strong arm because of lots of wild bad throws and less range than average. He also hurts the team on the basepaths with how often he gets thrown out with boneheaded baserunning decisions. 

The most similar player to Eddie statistically is Corey Dickerson, he's literally the most similar player on baseball reference, and Dickerson is a better career hitter and generally regarded as a better fielder. As a free agent last offseason Dickerson signed a 2 year 17.5M deal with the Marlins. Eddie is projected to get ~10-13 million in arbitration this year depending on how arbitration works with the shortened season. Given how little Dickerson got as a FA last year with NO COVID revenue issues as a somewhat better player to Eddie and the fact that the Twins think Kirilloff is ready to play on just a minimum salary for 600k, it makes sense for the Twins to get rid of Eddie to save that money to spend elsewhere. Since Dickerson got less than Eddie will make in arbitration this year and most teams are acting strapped for cash, very few teams will be interested in trading for Eddie when they know the Twins will almost assuredly non tender him and they can sign him for his "true market value" of 5-7 million instead.

I hope this explains why most outside observers assume the Twins will non tender Rosario.

 

https://www.baseball...dickeco01.shtml

https://www.baseball...rosared01.shtml

I understand the limitations of fantasy ratings, but I still find it instructive to see how others view our players no matter what lens they use.Thanks for a good posting - I do have to admit I am still a Rosario fan.