Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

Verlander

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 05:36 AM
Per Spotrac:   Justin Verlander signed a 2 year / $66,000,000 contract with the Houston Astros, including $66,000,000 guaranteed, an...

MLB.com Top 30 Twins Prospects

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 12:05 AM
MLB redesigned their prospect ranking pages and released the Twins top 30 today. 

Zack Littell on Throwing Multiple Sliders

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 11:07 PM
https://blogs.fangra...is-two-sliders/ Interesting piece over at FanGraphs where Zack Littell discusses the two different sliders he used...

Thorpe leaving camp for a spell

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 07:28 PM
  "To who this may concern! I’ve left camp for a week or 2 for personal matters. I’m healthy and excited for this year. I’ll be bac...

YouTube TV Drops Fox Sports Regional Networks

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 07:16 PM
Does MLB and its TV affiliates (mostly Fox Sports channels) realize how idiotic they are being by not being available to be watched on ma...

Photo

The potential for success - Josh Donaldson contract

Posted by mikelink45 , 18 January 2020 · 829 views

josh donaldson minnesota twins third basemen mike schmidt eddie mathews
The potential for success - Josh Donaldson contract
  • Scott Rolen
  • Mike Schmidt
  • Ken Boyer
  • George Brett
  • Eddie Mathews
  • Dave Hollins

I was curious about great 3B players so I went to check on a few to see how they aged and whether the four year contract for Josh Donaldson was really a good deal for both team and player. What are the potentials for regret? I cannot predict injuries or aging, but this list makes me feel better and optimistic.

Mike Schmidt ages 34 - 37 hit HRs to almost match his age 36,33,37,35 and then he was really done dropping off to 12 and 6. His WAR was 7,.5, 6.2, 6.1,and then 1.8, -0.4

Another great 3B and my favorite was Eddie Mathews. A wonderful HOF player. He hit 32 at age 33 and then dropped to 16, 32, 3. His career was over by age 38.

Ken Boyer, a near HOF peaked at age 32 and never had another power year.

Scott Rolen, being debated for HOF and getting lots of credit as a 3B candidate hit 22, 20, 5 and 8 and then was done at 38

George Brett was not a HR hitter, but in his age 34 - 37 seasons his WAR was 2.7, 4.1 and then he finished out his last three years with WARS of less that 0,5.

Baseball Reference in it list of comparable players at age 33 listed only one 3B - Dave Hollins who dropped out at age 33 with BA, HR and all other stats. Not a good one there, although he had been good.

Those are my best comparable players. The biggest thing I saw in this exercise really demonstrated that the Twins might have grabbed the best four years and would be wise not to extend it further.

  • ashbury and dbminn like this



A fun way of looking at Donaldson's future, Mike. 

 

I'll add a couple more that I liked to watch play. Adrian Beltre was really consistent from ages 34-37. Hit 99 HR and put up 20.6 fWAR. Chipper Jones hit 95 HR and put up 20 WAR as well. 

 

Odds are good he won't equal Beltre's run. Donaldson stays in great shape, so his biggest risk is injury. His skills will slide a bit but I don't believe they will completely fade away. 

 

 

    • mikelink45 likes this