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Bryce Harper a bad bargain

Posted by mikelink45 , 12 December 2018 · 1,379 views

bryce harper washington nationals twins outfield free agents
Bryce Harper a bad bargain Okay, we know we are not in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes. Be glad. Only Boras can sell him as the $400 million dollar man. If we look closely we know better. What were his stats this year? 1.3 WAR. 248, 34, 100. Yes he had a +133 OPS. Is that worth $40 million a year? He has had 7 years and an accumulated 27.4 WAR - 3.9 per year. What is that worth? Lets me realistic here. The following article says that in this inflated era a player gets $3.8 million per war - that means that for 2018 Harper was worth about $5 Million. If we take his average over his career it means just under $15million. Will he sign for that? Of course not. Boras has the league buffaloed so he will get twice or more for that.

He will argue that these are his prime years coming up and that is true. However, how long is his prime? Most estimates make 32 the maximum. https://www.baseball...-age-27-theory/ Then what? Look at Pujols. He might be DFA'd now that the Angels have gotten a first baseman and DH. Or Tulowitzki who has been DFA'd with two big years left on his contract.

Of course we can always look at the impact that the player has on winning. Harper has been with the Nationals seven years. They have been first 4 times and second 3 times. Of course they also have Scherzer the best pitcher in the NL (I know some like Kershaw) and Strasburg and Rodon and Werth and Turner... Yet they have never made the WS. They lost in the LDS four times 3 - 2. Mr Harper never took them over the top.

A team is a team, not a star and bit players. Those who chase Harper or the guy who does not want to play all out, but will play dirty can expend the big bucks, but the Twins have much more affordable options in the next tier. Of course that assumes the Twins want to win and want to spend.

  • DocBauer, tarheeltwinsfan and MN_ExPat like this

My biggest offer to this guy would be about 6 years for $120M total. His 2018 season wasn't all that great, and I'd be concerned he'll have some troubles with strikeouts, plus I wouldn't want to pay this guy into his middle to late 30s like some offers have. I'm predicting he's going to go down as one of the biggest FA busts in MLB history, but I should wait to see the mega-deal he's going to sign.

    • mikelink45 and MN_ExPat like this
Dec 13 2018 09:59 PM

Mike I agree. Boras is just bloviating, as usual.

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Absolutely agree! No matter what, it's still a team game. Baseball is very much a game of individual matchups. But the components involved are defense, pitching and hitting. No matter how productive a hitter may be, he is still one man in a lineup. It's not like other sports where you can call a play for him, and insert him where and when you want to. He is "stuck" at his spot in the lineup. I still feel the Trout example is a good one. No matter how incredible his career has been, he's still one guy in the lineup. Harper is young, talented and productive. His best years may be in front of him. And there is no question he has the ability to help a team, and even push them over the top with his production. And he is...in the crazy world of professional sports financials...worth $20-25M. But $30M, which he rejected? $40M? Sorry....NO.
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