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Diving in to the Twins Schedule

Posted by Matthew Lenz , 25 March 2019 · 556 views

schedule promotions
We are inching closer to Opening Day 2019 and, don’t look now but, current forecasts make it seem plausible that the Twins will be hosting the defending American League (AL) Central Division Champions Cleveland Indians on March 28th at 3:10pm. The Thursday, Saturday, Sunday series will be the only three games of the homestand before they start their first road trip traveling to Kansas City, the new look Phillies, and the Mets of New York.

April (12 home, 13 away, 5 off)
Outside of three games versus the Phillies and five games versus the Houston Astros, the Twins have the opportunity to take advantage of an easy schedule in the first full month of the season. This includes a seven-game homestand versus the Tigers and Blue Jays in mid-April and six total games versus the Baltimore Orioles.

May (13 home, 15 away, 3 off)
Things get a little tougher in May as their first five games are versus Houston at home (2) and New York Yankees at Yankees Stadium (3). They will face a solid, but not great Angels (6) and Rays (2) team eight times throughout the month and will host the Brewers for two games towards the end of the month. The Blue Jays, Tigers, Mariners, and White Sox are also on the docket and will all be series the Twins really need to win.

June (12 home, 15 away, 3 off)
The third month of the year could be a pivotal month for the Twins as 16 of their 27 games come against division foes, and only three of those games are versus the Indians in Cleveland. That said, five games against the Rays and three games against the Red Sox at Target Field will be a challenge and, specifically with the Rays, could have Wild Card tiebreaker implications down the road.

July (12 home, 12 away, 7 off)
July will be another important month for the Twins as 13 of their games will be against teams who will likely be in the thick of the developing playoff race. Ten of those aforementioned games will be immediately following the All-Star Break in Cleveland for three games and hosting the A’s and Yankees for seven games. If they struggle during that stretch, then they have the opportunity of playing the White Sox and Marlins to end the month.

August (16 home, 12 away, 3 off)
The “dog days of summer” will be something the Twins look forward to this season...kind of (see below). They have a tough 10 game homestand where they will face the Braves (3) and Indians (4) followed by two games in Milwaukee. Outside of those nine games, the other 19 will be against teams who are currently projected for 74 wins or less according to Vegas.

September (13 home, 14 away, 3 off)
Uf-dah (why does my Grammarly recognize this as a word?). In the months final season, the Twins will have twelve consecutive games against teams who will likely be battling for a playoff spot, including six critical games against the Indians. The other six will be at Fenway and versus the Nationals at home. Unfortunately, these games occur earlier in the month which makes it less likely these teams have clinched anything at that point. This is by far the toughest stretch of the season and it comes during the most important time of the season. I should mention that they end the season with 13 games versus the bottom three teams in the division.

Notes of Interest
The longest homestand of the season is ten games versus August 2nd through August 11th versus the Royals, Braves, and Indians.
The longest road trip of the season is 10 games and 12 days, including a day of travel, starting May 29th and going through June 9th versus the Rays, Indians, and Tigers.
There must be some labor law I’m unaware of that teams will have at least one off day in a two-week period as the Twins play on 13 consecutive games at a few different points throughout the season.
That said, the Twins do have three different stretches of 26 games in 27 days including two such stretches that occur at the beginning and very end of August.
The most difficult stretch of the season was mentioned above, but what should be the easiest stretch of the seasons occurs in the 17 games leading up to the trip to Fenway. Those 17 games will be against the Rangers, White Sox, and Tigers.

Notable Promotions - follow the link for full list
March 28th (Opening Day) v. Cleveland - Twins Puffer Vest
April 27th v. Orioles - Twins Plaid Flap Cap
May 24th v. White Sox - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #1
June 15th v. Royals - Joe Mauer Day & No. 7 Baseball Cap
July 19th v. Athletics - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #2
August 3rd v. Royals - Joe Nathan Hall of Fame Bobblehead
August 4th v. Royals - Joe Nathan and Jerry Bell Hall of Fame Pins
August 24th v. Tigers - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #3
September 7th v. Indians - Joe Mauer Bobblehead #4

Breaking down a schedule is an interesting exercise. Not that you’re ever going to feel bad for someone making millions of dollars, but you can definitely appreciate how grueling the Major League Baseball season is. What are you looking forward to this upcoming Twins season? Any games or series you have your eye on right away? Let me know if the comments!

  • Oldgoat_MN, woolywoolhouse, ToddlerHarmon and 2 others like this



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theBOMisthebomb
Mar 25 2019 08:48 PM
It will be fun to watch Brian Dozier come back to town. I am also hoping that Tim Tebow is in the majors when the Mets play at Target Field.
    • Matthew Lenz likes this

I do like that the Twins are playing the White Sox and Marlins (albeit on the road) leading up to the trade deadline on July 31st.If they are in the race and can take 4 or 5 of those six games maybe Falvey & Co. will pull the trigger on some trades that can help down the stretch.

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Matthew Lenz
Mar 26 2019 01:38 PM

 

It will be fun to watch Brian Dozier come back to town. I am also hoping that Tim Tebow is in the majors when the Mets play at Target Field.

I wish I would have thought to add little tid bits like this.Good call!

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Matthew Lenz
Mar 26 2019 01:39 PM

 

I do like that the Twins are playing the White Sox and Marlins (albeit on the road) leading up to the trade deadline on July 31st.If they are in the race and can take 4 or 5 of those six games maybe Falvey & Co. will pull the trigger on some trades that can help down the stretch.

Totally agree, that stretch after the All Star Break could have pretty big implications on how the Twins handle the trade deadline.

    • David HK likes this

 

Totally agree, that stretch after the All Star Break could have pretty big implications on how the Twins handle the trade deadline.

True. 

Too often, though, the Twins have needed a stretcher after the stretch after the break.

    • Matthew Lenz likes this
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John Bonnes
Mar 27 2019 06:58 AM

I loved this Matthew. Thank you for doing it. 

 

There must be some labor law I’m unaware of that teams will have at least one off day in a two-week period as the Twins play on 13 consecutive games at a few different points throughout the season.

 

You're guessing right, I think. I've always heard that is the case. and if they need to make up a doubleheader on that off day, the players need to approve it. 

 

I loved this format. I thought of a couple of different ways you could analyze this is you want to continue.

 

1. Assuming the most important games of the season are versus the other likely Wild Card contenders (which, per Vegas, are the Angels, A's and Rays), when are the most important stretches of the season.

 

2. If you (or someone else) are mathematically inclined, you could use the Vegas over/under values to determine a strength of schedule for each month. Like how many wins or losses above average is the schedule for that month. (Or even each homestand/road trip). If you want to see the methodology up close, I did so here:

 

http://twinsdaily.co...-schedule-r6489

 

 

    • Matthew Lenz likes this
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Matthew Lenz
Mar 27 2019 11:59 AM

Thanks, John.I will definitely look into your methodology.Already have a couple ideas for a "part 2" this year or how to attack this next year.

I loved this Matthew. Thank you for doing it. 

 

There must be some labor law I’m unaware of that teams will have at least one off day in a two-week period as the Twins play on 13 consecutive games at a few different points throughout the season.

 

You're guessing right, I think. I've always heard that is the case. and if they need to make up a doubleheader on that off day, the players need to approve it. 

 

I loved this format. I thought of a couple of different ways you could analyze this is you want to continue.

 

1. Assuming the most important games of the season are versus the other likely Wild Card contenders (which, per Vegas, are the Angels, A's and Rays), when are the most important stretches of the season.

 

2. If you (or someone else) are mathematically inclined, you could use the Vegas over/under values to determine a strength of schedule for each month. Like how many wins or losses above average is the schedule for that month. (Or even each homestand/road trip). If you want to see the methodology up close, I did so here:

 

http://twinsdaily.co...-schedule-r6489