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  1. stringer bell's Avatar
    Carroll is a utility guy and shouldn't be a regular. Period, end of sentence. While defense is certainly important, I don't think any metrics are foolproof and further, I don't think any defender should be judged by a partial season on things as UZR etc.
  2. jorgenswest's Avatar

    I think the Twins management agree with you on defense and stats. They are going to let everyone else go ahead on this curve and hope it is the wrong direction.

    Even looking at the numbers, Carroll at best measured in the middle of qualifying shortstops. He did not have the innings to join that group. His defensive runs saved and UZR are ordinary. The numbers show that he has below average range and does not make a lot of errors. I think our eyes can see that.

    However, I do think the Twins should be paying attention to the defensive metrics. Maybe they are, but their roster decisions over the last two years indicate otherwise. Certainly, the decisions they have made indicate that they do not think defense has a significant impact on wins.
    Updated 12-22-2012 at 08:44 PM by jorgenswest
  3. Jim H's Avatar
    Shane, to be a little less snarky. It is not just my opinion that Carroll is a below average fielder. If Carroll was viewed by major league talent evaluators as an above average fielder at shortstop, he would of held down a regular starting shortstop job for the last ten years instead being a utility man. His offense has been average or above for a middle infielder. If he was even average defensively he would of been starter. Look at guys like Adam Everett who started for years. Defense at short is the defining issue. Carroll clearly isn't that good defensively. Gardy would of left him at short or brought him back when Dozier struggled if Carroll were even an average big league shortstop.
  4. Jim H's Avatar
    Shane, I have no confidence in defensive stats, for any number of reasons. If the defensive stats say Carroll is above average especially at short, that is still one more reason to distrust them. More importantly, Carroll's production isn't likely to stand up to being a regular. If he is used as a utility guy, 3-4 times a week, he will stay fresher both offensively and defensively. I don't much care if he is used at the top of the lineup, when he is in the lineup, but I really think I would put Dozier there. With the choice right now, Dozier will likely start at either short or 2nd. Let him bat 2nd if he does.

    While I think roster speculation is interesting, there are so many variables and even possible additions or subtractions between now and spring training, that I doubt things will work out much like any of us suspect. The starting pitching breakdown and centerfield should be the most interesting.
  5. Shane Wahl's Avatar
    I don't even know why the Twins have Roenieke or Wood in the first place (Boggs/Ramirez and Harden). Butera would be next unless Pressly immediately stinks.
  6. Rosterman's Avatar
    The Twins were thinking about Thielbar. Duensing will shine if they keep him in the bullpen.
  7. Rosterman's Avatar
    I would think Swarzak would have some value for a team looking for that middle reliever who can eat innings. The Twins can't cut him without losing him. I would be exploring ANY trade options for the guy right now.

    The other issue: Who on the current 40-man roister is expendable. If the Twins needed to add someone, anyone, who would go. Roeinke, Wood? Butera or Herrmann? Do the Twins really need to keep Pressly (we will find out). There isn't a lot of chaf to cut and you either have to find a place for a Benson, Hicks, Arcia in the majors, perhaps, because you aren't waivering them off the roster.

    Even with names like Boggs, Ramierz, Caba in the background and worthy callups if someone goes down, they would still need a roster spot.

    That is where things get difficult.

    Hendriks, DeVries, Gibson are the abckup starters. You don't add Perdumo, Walters, Vasquez because there is no way to add them right now. Even Harden, if you choose to carry him, will need to find a 40-man spot.

    So that does put folks Like Swarzak, Butera, Florimon on the bubble (out of options) and will have the Twins taking hard looks at people like Burnet, Robertson and Escobar.
  8. johnnydakota's Avatar
    My concern is the left handed relievers Dunny and his 4.40 era wasnt really bad, much better as a reliever then starter, but its Robertson and his 5.40 era that i wonder about...
    is there any leftys in the pipeline who can challenge for a spot?
  9. jorgenswest's Avatar
    Good assessment at this point.

    It shows the Twins still have some work to do.

    I hope that Florimon doesn't make the team. If he does, it will be a starting SS. He gives the team nothing off the bench.

    The 25th spot on the team will be fluid due to injuries and whether it is a 12 or 13 man pitching staff. They should not add a player to,the 40 man to fill this temporary role like they did with Burroughs last year.

    I like the pitching, but I don't think Swarzak has any trade value. There are going to be several Swarzak type players who will be DFA'd as the season starts. No need to trade for one.

    They can not go into the season with that outfield. Mastro is only useful as a 4th OF.

    There has been a lot of discussion of June (or even June 1) with regards to Hicks and Arcia. That super two date is not a fixed target. The new CBA upped the number from 17% to 22%. It won't be until winter 2015 until teams get a sense of where the 22% lands. The Twins could be conservative and wait until later in June or maybe even the all star break. It will really depend on whether other teams will be as patient. Small market teams need to do this.

    I think it is too long to wait.

    The Twins are not a small market team. They can afford to pay arbitration a year earlier.

    Hicks and Arcia will struggle when we see them this year. They will also progress more quickly. I would plan now to have them in the opening day lineup with Matroianni as the 4th OF. They need to trade Morneau and move Parmelee to 1B. Alternatively, if they can't trade Morneau, they can DH Willingham.
  10. Shane Wahl's Avatar
    It's not the end of the world if Florimon starts there, but I don't know what they do at the top of the lineup then!? Carroll makes sense even as a leadoff hitter with Mauer behind him. Mastro and Florimon??

    There are two legitimate non-Mauer leadoff contenders in my view: Jamey Carroll and Aaron Hicks.

    With regard to Slama. They are extending an invite to ST for him this year and they didn't last year. They have got to take him seriously.
  11. Paul Pleiss's Avatar
    Unfortunately I think Florimon starts the season as the everyday SS, definitely not excited about it, but I think it's happening. Carroll and Dozier to split time at 2B/Utility, and I'm sure Carroll will also spell Florimon at SS, maybe Dozier too. I dont think Slama makes the club, he didn't get called up last September, and the organzation seems to have some serious bias against him getting things done at the big league level; I wish they'd give him a shot, but it's not happening.
  12. Shane Wahl's Avatar
    Jim: Check out Carroll's defensive statistics from last year. At third, second, and short he was above average. It is a fair point to make that there is no way he will be as good next year as last year, true. But he is solid at the position and has surprising range. Florimon would make plays that Carroll could not . . . but the opposite is true as well.

    Riverbrian: Colabello appears to have been fairly bad at 3B. That is why I labelled him an emergency 3B in the case of Plouffe and Carroll somehow being out in-game at some point. It's probably similar to how Mastroianni would technically be an emergency second baseman as well. That's still worth having. My reason for wanting him on the roster is that I really don't see anyone else currently in the organization who is going to provide a bench bat as potentially good as is, and he is certainly peaking right now in his prime. It isn't as though he needs seasoning in AAA. It is also a great story, but having a RH bat on the bench would be nice for a change.

    Lee: yeah, I understand that the Twins likely won't agree with me. I honestly do think that this is their mistake (haha!). That said, I see no way in hell that they will not have a backup OF for Mastroianni and everybody else. Boggs is most likely the guy, but Ramirez would be my pick. It doesn't really matter as long as it is one of them.

    Hicks and Arcia in June if they are doing well in AAA. No, zero, none, zilch, etc. reason not to do that. That is why I like guys already here to be the placeholder instead of signing another player. Eventually I would also hope that the pitching staff drops to 11 pitchers to add one more player.

    I am fairly certain that it will be Butera over Herrmann. I see no reason to do that though. Of course I also would have promoted Herrmann to AAA by July last year. If they are waiting on "seasoning" in AAA for him . . . how dumb. He is not likely to be any kind of star and maybe not even a regular on a good team. But that doesn't mean that Drew Butera should be on the roster instead. Herrmann is a legitimate *batter* if not a *hitter* necessarily. And he might be able to be a super utility man if given the proper attention. Like an NBA role-player . . .

    Benson was hurt last year and the team certainly put pressure on him with that 2011 September callup without any time at AAA (DUMB). He needs to be at AAA and be playing every day.

    I don't think Pelfrey can even be ready. Wasn't his surgery in May? To be ready by April, he's got to be getting ready in February and March. I don't think it would be wise to push him. There is absolutely no reason to do so. Let him come back a bit later to protect against further injury.
  13. lee_the_twins_fan's Avatar
    Shane; I agree with your MI analysis. But I doubt the Twins will bring up Ramirez, Boggs or Colabello, unless one of them excels in spring training. I agree I'd rather see Herrmann over Butera – but I doubt the Twins FO sees it that way.
    Your pitching staff looks right, except I think Pelfrey WILL be ready. If Harden is also ready, Robertson will the odd man out.

    The OF situation is more complex. Arcia and Hicks appear ready or near-ready to start. I think the Twins would want them to play every day, however – at whatever level. One of the two of them I expect will be brought up about June 1 to extend their control.

    Here's what i suspect the Twins will do: Use Willingham, Mastroianni and Parmelee in the outfield for the first two months. if one needs a break, they have Plouffe, Doumit and others who can play in the outfield. It doesn't give much backup for CF, but Mastroianni can handle it for two months.

    Then around June 1, either Arcia or Hicks will be brought in – either as an injury replacement, or as a replacement for ineffectiveness. Then Mastroianni becomes the fourth outfielder.

    That leaves two roster spots open. One goes to Escobar. The other goes to someone who is a spring training invitee. I'm going to say it's someone we haven't even signed yet.

    Of those on the ST invite list, yeah, Boggs might be it. I'm guessing he won't be there yet.

    Even with Benson's talent, he bombed last year. I don't think he's ready yet for the big show, at least not right out of ST.

    Arcia and Hicks will be with the team sometime in 2013. I think the ONLY reason Hicks is not up at the start is to not begin his ML service. One will be up by June 1; the other may be up even before then, if there's an injury. Hicks has more experience in CF, and therefore has the edge. Without any ML injuries, I expect Hicks to be the one called up about June 1. But if there is an injury, Arcia could be up before then.

    It's a complicated mess. And yes, the roster is not settled.
  14. Riverbrian's Avatar
    Shane... Thanks for the mention of Calabello... I didn't know much about him and just spent some time reading a couple of articles on him. This is a player I can pull for with everything I have.

    Has anyone seen this guy play 3B... I read that he was fantastic defensively but he played 1B in New Britain... I also saw that he has some 3B experience. It seems that 3B would be the less cluttered path. He's a great story no doubt... I will be checking his box scores.
  15. Jim H's Avatar
    Don't understand the Carroll thing. He is not really above average anywhere any more. He certainly isn't above average at short. He is a utility infielder and still pretty good at it. That is where he should be. If Florimon or Dozier aren't the answer at short, and they may not be, than you go elsewhere to find one. I wouldn't waste much time plugging Carroll in there.

    I am sort of surprised that the Twins haven't/apparently aren't going to get a solid middle infielder. It seems to indicate that they think either Florimon or Dozier can be a decent shortstop.
  16. clutterheart's Avatar
    "I don't think the Twins are getting enough credit for their draft picks over the past two years."

    I sort of agree with this but I wish they would have went after some higher upside HS arms last year. However, I really agree that the twins are not getting credit for their international FA signings.
    3 out of your top ten were not drafted:
    Arcia - International Free Agent
    Sano - International Free Agent
    Kepler - International Free Agent

    Pretty good scouting down there - though Sano kind of fell into their laps, but who is counting! These are guys who any other team could have got but the Twins go there first.
  17. darin617's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Shane Wahl
    2015 mid-season:

    Buxton CF
    Hicks RF
    Mauer C
    Sano 1B
    Kepler LF
    Arcia DH
    Rosario 2B
    Goodrum 3B????
    Polanco SS?????

    With Walker, Herrmann, Santana, and Pinto on the bench

    Harrison, Rodriguez, and so forth close.

    Something like that seems plausible. And rather amazing. Some of those guys are obviously involved sooner and with some veterans the team by 2014 should be very good offensively. And with the Span and Revere trades, the pitching is going to be substantially better.

    That said, given this minimum salary talent coming up, why on earth don't they spend the damn money to get legitimate pitchers right the hell now?
    You really think Mauer will still be a catcher?
  18. Mr. Ed's Avatar
    Sano .351 in 17 games, 4 dingers, OBP .468, Rosario .348 in 19 games, OPS over .900

    Dougie baseball, get them ready for the next level.
  19. wagwan's Avatar
    The top 12 on this list could all be All-Stars. Things are going to get very fun at target field.
  20. Shane Wahl's Avatar
    2015 mid-season:

    Buxton CF
    Hicks RF
    Mauer C
    Sano 1B
    Kepler LF
    Arcia DH
    Rosario 2B
    Goodrum 3B????
    Polanco SS?????

    With Walker, Herrmann, Santana, and Pinto on the bench

    Harrison, Rodriguez, and so forth close.

    Something like that seems plausible. And rather amazing. Some of those guys are obviously involved sooner and with some veterans the team by 2014 should be very good offensively. And with the Span and Revere trades, the pitching is going to be substantially better.

    That said, given this minimum salary talent coming up, why on earth don't they spend the damn money to get legitimate pitchers right the hell now?
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