Thanks, Thrylos. I periodically correct myself, but then I revert back to A-. Maybe they should just standardize . . .
Hard to argue with those choices... Good stuff. Keep it coming
One little detail: Cedar Rapids is in an A league, not an A- league. A- leagues are leagues like the New York Penn Leagues that are short season leagues and an alternative to the higher Rookie Leagues, like the Appalachian. I know a lot of people call the Midwest League, "Low" A league to distinguish from the High A Florida State League, but it is totally inaccurate. It is A. Not Low A or A-
The injury occurred in 2009. He has since pitched 3 strong college seasons and was at one time projected to be a top 20 pick. Maybe his strikeout #'s caused him to drop to about where BA had him slotted. A 2nd round pick is a not a 1st round pick.
Puzzling how his strikeout numbers are so pedestrian. And always have been. Strikeouts matter. So does durability.
Ryan Eades is probably as close to a can't miss starting pitcher prospect as the Twins have. Top baseball prospect in Louisiana in 2008. Cape Cod pitcher of the year in 2011. Number 2 starter on one of the top college programs in 2012 and 2013. Both years he was behind a current or future first round draft choice. Due to a long college season and being a workhorse, he was essentially shut down after being drafted. He wasn't allowed to start and innings were limited. In comparison, Meyer never pitched an inning after being drafted. The Twins had him rated higher than any other 2nd round pick.
I can't agree with Rogers being lower than Cole Johnson or any of the other names on this. A left handed starter who's never had an ERA over 2.88. 6K/9 isn't the worst thing in the world and of course it's going to take a hard hit when you move to the rotation. 1.156 WHIP to go with his ERA. If Rogers is this low, then I'm not sure as to why Melotakis will likely 15+ spots higher . I mean his K/9 is 6.8 and everything else for him was worse than Rogers. Lower level, same age, shorter, worse WHIP, worse ERA. To me those guys are pretty close and to have that big a gap between them just comes off as crazy.
Number 58 here, Pat Dean, is who I maybe have in mind for Rogers' future. Dean's K rate fell dramatically when he hit Fort Myers. Still pretty serviceable, especially if Dean moves to the bullpen, but I am just not going to get all gung-ho about these kinds of pitchers in the system until they develop further.
I find the dramatic K rate drop to be a sign of a problem for that low-90s fastball. I will be surprised if he remains a starting pitcher past 2014. As soon as the hits and homers come back, I would worry.
I too am confused about your placement of Rogers. Why so low?
Truly surprised by your selection of Rogers at 63. He just gets results as a pitcher and is a Lefty who throws 90. Why so low on your list?
Great idea Shane!
Yes, I am going to do this for pitchers, though I really only see Burton and Duensing as viable trade-bait. Given that there are no great or good starters to be dealt this year league-wide, MAYBE I will include Correia.
DAM DC Twins Fans: well, I could go lower on these lists, if possible. The problem is that there seems to be basically zero Seth Stohs-esque writers for most teams. Prospect lists MIGHT go to 30, but I have had a hard time digging there. Anyway, given that Liriano was traded for TWO of this level type player, I don't think it is that crazy to make a claim for legitimate trade value here. These guys are NOT top prospects in the strictest sense of the term and teams are going to be willing to add major leaguers to fill holes. Plouffe to the Pirates, for instance, makes a bunch of sense. They need some more pop. Etc. etc.
Good article. Obviously, not all of the tradable players will be moved. I do hope the Twins realize that their chances of contending are still remote. They are getting as many wins as they could hope for, but the pitching staff isn't good enough and they have holes in their everyday lineup.
I think you overvalue the Twins players...I doubt we could get these level prospects for Morneau, Doumit, Plouffe, Willingham, etc. It reminds me of the Capps/Ramos deal--most GMs are smarter than Billy Smith and would want more than one of the 4 Twins for a top 200 prospect...
Great article, very in-depth. Are you planning on doing this for pitchers? I would be interested in reading that. First and foremost, let's hope some of these guys get hot for the next month and increase their value.
I think that the Twins should do anything and everything to get legitimate prospects in return. For this reason, I have no problem with the Twins paying a hefty portion of Morneau's salary in order to increase his value.
What about packaging players? I know it doesn't happen much, but some of these teams have multiple needs we can fill. This includes the Pirates, Garrett Jones has struggled at 1B and Travis Snider has been dreadful. Willlingham to the Pirates could be an option if Marte can move to RF. Kingham's numbers look pretty good to me. He could be a steal.
Very nice article and I agree that those players do not likely fit well into the teams long term plans and we need spots available to find out what we have for talent behind them. I also agree with Brandon though in that the Twins are in a position to be patient and try and to drive up the value of the players you mention. If that doesn't work out over time then I guess you desperately try to find a trading partner or let the player go. It's a tough job being a GM and coming out on top all the time.
I don't think Plouffe will be available till next season. There's no rush to trade him or Doumit. Our leverage in a trade of these guys is we don't have to move them. Sano isn't ready to be called up and neither is Pinto. Morneau is a toss up. I still do not think they will trade him, in fact I bet he resigns to a 1 year 14 million (or whatever the qualifying offer is next season) This prediction is also most likely to be wrong too as they could let Morneau go and move Plouffe to 1B next season and bring up Sano. Willingham could be traded this year. but I doubt anyone gets moved unless we get an overpay or a top 5-10 prospect. We don't need to reduce payroll and we don't have too many immediate replacements outside of Arcia that is ready right now.
A lot of left-handed starters available. I would be surprised if we traded for anything except starting pitching, but makes sense to me. I think this is Terry Ryan's preferred way of doing business. Good job.
I think I have read more than once that the PCL is a hitter's league. That would make Solarte's numbers look better. It is not Profar blocking him from a roster spot. Solarte couldn't beat out Garcia for the Jack of all trades role on the Rangers