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  1. clutterheart's Avatar
    Their system likes age & and on base %. Thus Polanco is gets love.

    That also explains the high rankings for Kepler and Harrison.
  2. Willihammer's Avatar
    @ tarheel, all I did was input the Twins prospects' PA, AB, 2B, 3B, HR values into the tool on the beyondtheboxscore site (linked above), to produce zK, zBB, and zISO values which I then plugged into St John's other tool (sounds dirtier than it was). The tool based on the 41,000 minor league player seasons. That produced the probabilities described above.
  3. tarheeltwinsfan's Avatar
    Can you explain this in more detail please.
  4. curt1965's Avatar
    We'll done! Extremely interesting, for a non-tech savvy person like myself!
  5. jorgenswest's Avatar
    Good work. I appreciate the look from a different lens.
  6. ericchri's Avatar
    Interesting to see how well Kepler and Harrison are stacking up in these. The sudden onrush of decent pitching prospects in our system has seemed to push those two a little into the afterthoughts category with a lot of us.
  7. Willihammer's Avatar
    I had to update the tables because I had Polanco's 2013 level wrong (A+ instead of A). He still comes out looking ok.
  8. ericchri's Avatar
    Start the trade Dozier to make room for Polanco chants now?
  9. The Wise One's Avatar
    Under Ryan the Twins draft toolsy outfielders. Not all of them work out, Joe Benson being the latest example. They probably have provided the most WAR. They draft defensive oriented middle infielders. They do not provide as much WAR. The infielders traded for fir the same mold. Pitchers tend to be towards the steady variety, lower ceiling when they work out. Lower WAR also. When they have drafted higher ceiling pitchers it hasn't worked out.
    Still questioning your methodology as I mentioned you have 116 player years for Boston position players yet since 1996 they have only produced Ellsbury, Pedroia and Youkalis as star players. Pitching during that time was Buckholtz, Lester and Paplebon. Above in Oakland's success you are talking about Giambi who was drafted in 1992. There is still no pattern to Oakland's success. For every Suzuki there are many more Jeremy Brown's. In the days of compensation, Oakland ended up with more draft picks. If you looked at total WAR versus number of high draft picks a different picture would emerge.
  10. The Wise One's Avatar
    With the amateur draft changing, that should make for an interesting change in the numbers for success in draft with the smaller market teams. Rules continually change. There is no more sign and follow which may have helped teams with lower round picks. There will be less of the additional picks because your player didn't sign. With less supplemental picks, the second round becomes more valuable to the poor teams. All of this changes the dynamic. When the agents figure out loopholes, the owners will react and change the process again.

    Historical note, sometime in the 60's many years there was more spent by teams on amateur talent than payroll. Just noting how things change.
    Updated 09-27-2013 at 10:51 AM by The Wise One (entered twice)
  11. The Wise One's Avatar
    Interesting historical data. You must have a little bit of file management experience. It still must have been a lot of work.
    Limitations on what you actually produced. You picked a time frame of heavy PED use. That would inflate numbers. Take Melky Cabrerrra. Low WAR, goes to KC and SF. big numbers and busted. Off the drugs, negative war in Toronto.
    Boston has a high cumulative war. Is it better drafting or is it retaining good players? Yankees rate high. Jeter's 73 works very well to add to that total as does Rivera's 43
    For at least the first 15 years in drafting beyond talent there was a signability issue that would have an effect on drafting. Actually, much to their luck, that is how the Twins ended up with Mauer rather than Prior. (There is a what if thread, Mauer FSU quarterback)
    In drafting players I hate to say it is luck. Think Tim Hudson did better than most 6th round picks? If it was due to how Oakland identifies players then why did they draft Enochs in the first round that year?
    Actually, how did you get Boston's high number on position players? Ellsbury, Youkalis, and Pedroia were the only position players drafted by Boston that racked up big WAR numbers playing there.
  12. howieramone's Avatar
    All Ryan has to do is hit on the 3 draft classes where we finally had high picks. If you want a down and dirty look on how the rebuild is going just look at Buxton, Stewart, and our top pick in 2014. There is no magical formula to drafting.
  13. mnfanforlife's Avatar
    Sano gonna hit another 30 MiLb homers before he gets called up?
  14. mnfanforlife's Avatar
    very informative!
  15. TRex's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Oldgoat_MN
    Thanks for gathering all this data. Interesting stuff.

    Amazing how bad it would be if we hadn't drafted Radke and stolen Santana.
    I agree it would be amazingly bad, but you would have to imagine it is (nearly) the same throughout baseball. I would image that the top 10% of pitchers own 90% of all WAR. Does anyone know/think differently?
  16. Brad Swanson's Avatar
    This is excellent research. I'd be interested in seeing how old and experienced the players traded for on the other teams were. The Twins seem to be relatively adept at finding young pitching talent via trade.
  17. Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
    Thanks for gathering all this data. Interesting stuff.

    Amazing how bad it would be if we hadn't drafted Radke and stolen Santana.
  18. alskntwnsfn's Avatar
    I think it also points out just how poor the front office has been at signing free agents, something you don't need a terrific table like this to tell you. The other clubs who spent relatively close to the same was OAK, Toronto, KC, and Tampa Bay.

    I might buy the explanation that for much of this time the Twins were trapped in stadium resembling a plastic grocery bag, so they weren't going to get a deal on FA's. Course Oakland's Coliseum is no palace either, but hey, it's CA. But that said, the A's and the Rays got nearly twice as much WAR out of their free agents as the Twins, while spending a similar amount.

    It's black and white, TR and BS have been dreadful in terms of spending the owner's money wisely. Why on earth wouldn't ownership make TR head of scouting (or some such title) and install a new GM to handle FA analysis/signing? Instead they bring him back and installed one of "his guys" as GM after he retired? So weird.
  19. Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
    When paying Free Agents the Twins have paid the least as an average salary.
    They have not, however, paid even close to the least when looking at $/WAR.

    Going cheap isn't always the cheapest way to go.
  20. spycake's Avatar
    Great post, hope this gets promoted for more discussion. I was about to pull similar data myself -- although I probably would have expanded it beyond the AL, and mainly just used cumulative WAR totals (and maybe percent of a team's total WAR). But the $/WAR stuff is interesting too.

    It confirms what I was suspecting in another thread recently: that not only have the Twins largely ignored free agency, they've also done quite little internationally. They are WAY too dependent on the draft (and perhaps not that great at drafting, as evidenced by weak prospect lists pre-Buxton).
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