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  1. DocBauer's Avatar
    On a side note, my choice a break-out candidate is Hicks. He is so gifted, and last season's rush and failure, along with the tremendous and worthwhile excitement over Buxton, has tempered people's opinions, probably far too much.

    Since he was drafted, it was known he was raw and would take some time. He has often been compared to Tori Hunter, and probably rightfully so. And like Hunter, he has shown slow but steady progress, always adjusting and growing at each level. I believe he was simply rushed last season.

    And less we forget, he was showing signs of actually improving before his injury last year. With his excellent defense, he could learn on the job, hit .230-.250, still provide 20 SB's, possibly 20 HR's and 30 plus doubles with a smattering of triples and still be a real asset.
  2. DocBauer's Avatar
    I think everyone forgets how young he is. Probably because the Sox pulled him up too soon and his stats were not very good. Not surprising considering his age and lack of consistent every day playing time.

    All reports we've heard are good glove and athletic with a little speed. If he could supplant Floriman, who I LOVE for his glove, and people undervalue due to the Twins general lack of overall offense lately, I think we'd be better overall. At worse, I think he could platoon at SS against LHP and be a great sub at several positions.
  3. Linus's Avatar
    I've always liked the way he swings the bat. I also don't understand people wanting to peg him as a utility guy when he's only 24 and made his way to the big leagues rather quickly. He can easily improve as a hitter and fielder and, if that happens, he's clearly preferable to Florimon. I would give him every chance to win the SS job.
  4. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by IronMonkee
    I don't know how I feel about a sample size of 1, but I do hope you're right.
    Not exactly a sample size of 1. Lots of PAs and def reps in there, because the comparison is minor league careers and seasons.... I guess one can describe an entire baseball career as sample size of 1
  5. IronMonkee's Avatar
    I don't know how I feel about a sample size of 1, but I do hope you're right.
  6. ericchri's Avatar
    If he pulled a Dozier and made our SS spot in the lineup suddenly look acceptable as opposed to really bad, and could pull that off while drawing a wash in the defensive department with Florimon, that would be a good catalyst to a turnaround for the Twins. Hoping this analysis works out to come true. Thanks!
  7. Oldgoat_MN's Avatar
    I was pretty sure that Escobar got sent down in 2013 (to AAA) to play more SS and refine his skills. His .880 OPS in 188 PA showed a fluency with the bat that should have pleased everyone.

    Can he sustain this? I don't know, but when he came back to the Twins in September (SSS) his offensive numbers were very good for a SS. They featured a .324 BA and a .343 OBP for the 24 year old.

    I like Florimon as a fielder and wish him the best, but I believe the stronger Twins team has Escobar starting at SS and Florimon perhaps serving as the utility infielder.

    Like the parallels with Dozier. Good work. Thanks Thry.
    Updated 11-25-2013 at 10:31 AM by Oldgoat_MN (stupid keyboard)
  8. Brad Swanson's Avatar
    This is excellent analysis! I really like Escobar too, and I hope he beats Florimon out for the SS job in Spring Training. I think his offensive upside is clearly higher and he might even be a better defender. He's 2 years younger than Florimon too, so there's no downside.
  9. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse
    In regards to the stat that shows the pitchers to be different, isn't that the one that said Cole DeVries was an ace?
    Nothing showed up DeVries as an ace
    His xPE was at the 3-4 starter level, which was where he was in 2012.
  10. old nurse's Avatar
    After 2000 innings or more I would think that would get you predictive stats and the real one near the same spot.
    In regards to the stat that shows the pitchers to be different, isn't that the one that said Cole DeVries was an ace?
  11. Paul Pleiss's Avatar
    Reports I've been seeing talk about the Twins wanting to add 2 SP this off-season. Bronson Arroyo may indeed be better than Correia, but will he still be able to help this team when the youngsters start to perform in 2015 and beyond?
  12. howieramone's Avatar
    King Theo is a Ryan clone. He'll want Berrios and Thorpe.
  13. ashburyjohn's Avatar
    I like this reasoning too, particularly the two throw-ins of the deal. Mastro (though I love him like a son - he was my 2012 TD adoptee ) is barely above waiver-wire fodder and if a team considers him a sweetener I gladly include him. Fien is a guy who, when I think ahead to possible playoff games, doesn't seem like one of the pitchers who drives the other team nuts when you roll out three guys to suffocate their seventh-inning rally.

    You have to give up talent to get talent, and Dozier as the key piece to get a good pitcher is a reasonable choice. And I am all for bundling multiple players to get an upgrade, in contrast to recent Twins history of trading one guy and getting two "maybes" in return.
  14. twinsfan34's Avatar
    I think your reasoning is right. Love the "whatever that means"...part too.

    Dozier, love the guy. Great clubhouse guy, ethics, leadership, and adds some pop as a 2B.

    874 ABs...he's hit .240. I wonder how many guys after that many at-bats have improved their AVG by even...say .030 pts? (.270) Or what's the likelihood he even gets to .260?

    I almost think the Cubs are more into potential right now. And do they move Castro over with Baez coming up (possible Opening Day Starter to late May call up) or just scrap Castro altogether? The news stories (and the benchings) seem so down on the guy. He's only 23 though.
  15. twinscowboysbulls's Avatar
    I like the Samardzija idea, he and Mauer could throw around the pigskin on off days as well. I think we would have to up the offer a tish to get that done.
  16. twinsin17's Avatar
    If the Cubbies trade Samardzija it would surely require top end pitching prospects in return, effectively ruling the Twins out of the mix. Their issues are similar to our own. I do like the idea of TR doing some wheeling and dealing this winter, though. Personally I feel our best bet to add pitching is signing unremarkable veteran free agent inning eaters to hold us over while drafting high end pitching prospects and developing our solid core of pitchers currently in rookie/low A ball. When TR said "there are no shortcuts" I think this is what he meant.
  17. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by twinsfan34
    Cheaper than Price by a mile. I Like Samardzija. But I can't see the Cubs parting with him for less than at least 1 top 30 prospect or 2 in the top 100. The Cubs have an awesome farm system, tons of international flyers, and are looking at being a serious contender via the farm system come 2016 and beyond.
    Here is what I think about this, esp. when comparing Dozier to a top prospect like Rozario as far as trade value goes:

    They both have about the same years of club control. Unlike Rozario, Dozier has proven himself (whatever that means) in the majors and I think he has more value. Those 5 years of club control will coincide with his prime and he will be there for the future. Rozario is an excellent prospect, but still unproven. That's why I think that Dozier is more valuable than a top 30 prospect. He can start at second base tomorrow
  18. twinsfan34's Avatar
    Cheaper than Price by a mile. I Like Samardzija. But I can't see the Cubs parting with him for less than at least 1 top 30 prospect (Buxton, Sano, Meyer) or 2 in the top 100 (Rosario, Stewart). The Cubs have an awesome farm system, tons of international flyers, and are looking at being a serious contender via the farm system come 2016 and beyond.
    Updated 11-13-2013 at 08:51 AM by twinsfan34
  19. goulik's Avatar
    Thrylos, Amazingly informative post!! This is the most new info that I have read in the past two weeks on TD and I have read EVERYTHING! Thank You!!

    This also reinforces my desire to sign Josh Johnson to a creative contract. I keep hearing he wants just a one year contract to build value. Give him that one year with mutual options for two more years in a creative way that he will sign. For example: Year 1-7million;year 2-15 million team option/7.5 million player option;year 3-17 million team option/8 million player option. (Adjust the numbers to make sense and get er done)
  20. Thrylos's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer
    Volquez is intriguing, he has a huge xFIP-ERA gap, good regression candidate but man is he wild sometimes. Personally I would prefer Roberto Hernandez. He's just outside all of your criteria but has really cut down on walks recently and has a more enormous GB rate. And he can dial it up to 94-95 when he has to. I've always liked his stuff.
    Just the fact that Roberto Hernandez was once known as Fausto Carmona is enough for me to not sign him. Gives the wrong message and I would not like people like him in the clubhouse. Skill or not skill. Same reason I would not like ARod, even if he were free.
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