Volquez is intriguing, he has a huge xFIP-ERA gap, good regression candidate but man is he wild sometimes. Personally I would prefer Roberto Hernandez. He's just outside all of your criteria but has really cut down on walks recently and has a more enormous GB rate. And he can dial it up to 94-95 when he has to. I've always liked his stuff.
Both Jimenez and E. Santana are in the same boat as far as QO's go. The difference between them and someone like Lohse last season is that he was 34, so a long term signing did not make much sense nor did giving up a 1st round pick for a year or two of his services. Jimenez and Santana are young enough to merit a long term contract and for some teams giving up a first round pick is not a big deal if they are going to win.
Players like Beltran, Cruz, Kuroda, Grandenson and Napoli are in the same boat this season as Lohse was last season and they will be better of to accept those offers.
You say Ubaldo will have a high price tag. But if I remember correctly, the free agents that received qualifying offers last year had significantly repressed markets. Do you think that will happen with Ubaldo, and if do, do you think it increases the likelihood of the Twins signing him?
Probably more, because there is not much of a pipeline in the Twins organization. I would look at a 3 year or 2+1 for Kazmir and the same for Johnson and an 1 + 1 for Volquez.
I don't really think much of Diamond. On a good team he is a swingman at best. His 2013 was more like his 2011, which makes me think that his 2012 was an aberration (think Albers' first few games), because the raw stuff is not there as well... And we are talking about a good competitive team. And good, competitive teams do not sell good performing players in the deadline, unless they have better in the pipeline to replace them.
The Twins have to start thinking like champions for a change...
BTW- Awesome analysis.
Did you say specifically how many years you could look for in the contracts? I am guessing you would go 2 years for kazmir and one each for Volquez and Johnson. What I like there is that Volquez and Johnson, if they do well, could be attractive at the trade deadline. The team could get great return (think Sulbaran) on investments in them. And, if they go then you have people like Diamond and Worley at AAA who have hopefully figured out some things by then.
A lot of work Thry.
I have been impressed ever since someone (I cannot remember who, but someone with some credentials) said that Sano's upside was Miguel Cabrera.
Big fun coming our way!
You must have had a better view of the throw. I didn't realize that it hit Rohlfing. I thought the throw was really off the mark from my third base side vantage point. I didn't look up to see if the play was replayed on the big screen so I'll trust your perspective. I was watching Rosario and Baxendale to judge their reactions.
My wife and I were hesitant to make the trip with the threat of storms and not knowing if Sano would play. We decided to check out some other things in the area before heading to the park so we only got there very shortly before the first pitch.
I was looking forward to seeing Baxendale. I'm not sure that any of the pitches are plus, but that's only off of seeing him one time when he wasn't at his best. I think he has a good mix of pitches to keep hitters off balance enough to be able to be a back end starter. Command is going to be huge for him and learning how to use his repertoire effectively. Here's to hoping he can match what Radke was able to accomplish in his Twins tenure.
Pitz, I wish I knew you were there, I'd say hi.
About that error: The ball hit Rohlfing square on the chest protector and bounced to the back stop. I treat any ball that is hitting someone at that part of the body as catchable. Surprised the error was credited to Rosario. Baxendale's fastball was not there yesterday. I just hope that he is not still hurt.
Appreciate the write up. I was at the game also, although I had seen enough after 5 innings.
The only thing I'm a little unsure about was the error on Rohlfing. From my perspective, that was clearly an error on Rosario as it was a very poor throw. (It is listed in the box score as a Rosario throwing error). I'm not adding this to say anything about Rosario's defense. I think he is fine at second, but that particular throw was not good.
Baxendale was definitely victimized by some poor defense, but yeah he did not seem to be very sharp. This was the first time I've seen him, but I'm hoping his stuff is a little better than what I saw last night.
Thanks for your report.
As always, top quality reporting. Thanks.
Good info on Rosario's defense.
I really like Fien and I also like Perkins, but I think if the Twins can get a good deal for either they should pull the trigger.
Thanks. Great post.
I am on board with trading Fien.
My plan was to take a look at comps of trades of set up men and do a post about Fien and Burton like the Mujica for Cox deal last summer.
Those are very interesting numbers. I do tend to agree that Fien (if he could bring back a decent prospect/player) would be good to let go. Hopefully Tonkin would be able to take over his role for the rest of the year. I also like your take on letting some no-future starters take their 2 decent pitches to the pen and see what happens. They may save their career like Perkins.
Let's agree to disagree about the BABIP, because it will be a long discussion
but here are a couple of interesting BABIP splits for Fien:
In low leverage situations: BABIP .156
In medium leverage situations: BABIP .250
In high leverage situations: BABIP .316
I have a problem with BABIP (luck) as a stat. If a pitcher isn't a strikeout pitcher he had better have a low BABIP or he is going to be out of the league. I like Jeremy Hellickson's take on this,
“Yea, I just got lucky on the mound,” Jeremy Hellickson says dryly. “A lot of lucky outs … I hear it; it’s funny,” Hellickson said, not quite sure of the acronym. “I thought that’s what we’re supposed to do, let them put it in play and get outs. So I don’t really understand that. When you have a great defense, why not let them do their job? I’m not really a strikeout pitcher; I just get weak contact and let our defense play … I can either handle my business or I don’t …”
I pitcher is expected to get outs and alot of times that is by a hit ball. I love WHIP as a stat because it displays a pitchers effectiveness as in sticking to the strike zone while not throwing up pitches that players can easily detect and hit.
One thing that could be added with BABIP is "the eye test." How hard were the out BIP? How great was the defense? The thing that makes Deduno so effective with the Twins is batters inability to get a clean hit on the ball, they usually result in grounders back to him or slow grounders in the infield. Is he lucky or just pitching well enough to keep hitters off-balance and from having the BIP hit clean and hard?
Pretty cool. Good for Brian and, uh, Ms. Brian.
Wow, a 17 year old SS? Youngest player on the list.
Thanks for the article , i have been wondering about this ...