I found myself thinking yesterday about how awesome it would be to do ths professionally for an MBL team. Just sit around and tinker with numbers and equations all day and predict he next superstars for the sport. I could think of worse jobs!
Originally Posted by The Wise One
That is Cole Devries limiting factor as only 7 starts made it through 6 and only one through 7.
This is kinda a pet peave of mine
Innings pitched is about as meaningful stat as minutes played in basketball. It is manager's choice. Gardenhire tend to let their veterans (see Pavano) go over imaginary limits despite the number of pitches thrown, while limit the innings of rookies despite how well they are doing. Quality matters more than quantity, unless a pitcher takes himself out of the game (and they don't)
Great idea. One small difference of opinion. xPE. manipulating by a constant does nothing for the number for the reliabilty of the number. The luck factor over a season for all pitchers should be the same for all pitchers and thus should not be a factor to control for. Using babip at least factors for that pitcher what happens when they threw it. In determinging "Ace" status a factor that should be considered is the ability to get through the sixth. That is Cole Devries limiting factor as only 7 starts made it through 6 and only one through 7.
Originally Posted by Big Daddy H
Where's Anthony Slama? Everybody seems to leave him in the dust.
I am a huge Anthony Slama fun, and hope he makes the team out of Spring Training, but this is for Starting Pitching
Where's Anthony Slama? Everybody seems to leave him in the dust.
Yeah I do know the value of each level is way oversimplified. To actually try to give a proper value for each level, I would need to do some sort of regression analysis of the last 10 years or so by plugging in the numbers of all Ps and see how they did on each level relative to MLB and create an average value for each level (actually would be better if it is per league; because I suspect that the Pacific league pitchers are having a harder time than those of the International League.) That is probably the best way of doing it. But it does take time and computing power... What I am doing is a quick and dirty approximation (and easy )
Yeah. I assume that players spent about half of their time in each level. Weight would be better. Again, quick and easy
Age is taken care in the equation, since axPE is a number where xPE is divided by age and multiplied by level value times 7.
Nice job, you obviously put a lot of time and effort into this. Here are a few possible caveats I noticed:
1) Your numerical breakdown of the minor leagues is way oversimplified.
All Rookie Leagues: 1
I would be inclined to give these numbers more thought, as much of your calculations are based on them. For instance, the jump from A to AA is considered by many to be the most dificult. You also have the gap between rookie ball to high A+ at 2, where the gap from AAA to MLB is 1. I have always considered (right or wrong) that high A+ was just a crystalization of the best talent in rookie and A, so that gap seems high. I would bet the guys and gals on here can give you a much more comprehensive set of reasoning on how to evaluate the various levels.
2) This is an easy, quick fix. Your level number should be a weighted average, based on exact time spent in either level.
3) It would be easy to add an "age coefficient" to your calculations in order to take this into account. Not saying you should, but you mentioned Cole's age, so I'd suggest at least considering it if you think it fits into your analysis.
On the whole, an enjoyable read. Thanks for your effort!
Whoa. Thanks for this. It is definitely interesting.
Back when I was in college I did a informational interview with Mr. Mee in his Metrodome office. What a terrific guy he was for putting up with a idiot college Junior stumbling through life,and probably hung over, and giving me some advice. "Kid if you are looking to make money, unless you can hit a slider with some power or throw 100mph lefthanded, baseball is not for where you want to end up." I listened to him and decided not pursue my career in baseball and instead not make a lot of money down another path. I think baseball would have been more fun, if slighty less profitable. Thanks Mr. Mee for your time.
I will credit the Twins for getting him from the Nationals. Same with May. The Twins are actually having a pretty exiting system now because of these trades, the better than expected return of Gibson from TJ surgery and the 2012 draft.
(Gibson was 2009 but did not play until 2010, so that's when his pro debut was made; and the original list is for players who played in the Twins' system in 2008 and their 2009 destinations posted in April 2009, few months before Gibson was drafted - and btw, do you see Gibson in this ST 2012 photo? )
Like I said, I wasn't questioning the results, just what it means. Yes, the Rays have some good ones there, no question. Price was also the #1 overall pick. And, I know your three points, but your blog was on the pitchers in the organization at the time. Picking out two orgs that we know are good is one thing. Going through 30 organizations might tell us something else. I don't pretend to know and couldn't even guess and certain am not going to do that work. And Gibson was 2009. Wimmers and Darnell were 2010. If Meyer (2011) becomes a star, will you credit the Twins or give credit to the Nationals?
Hendriks was around and should probably be listed. The original list is a list of Twins' MiLB in 2008 and where there were assigned in 2009. Hendriks sat out in 2008. Darnell and Gibson came in 2010.
The premise here was 3-fold:
It is hard to compete (or even stronger - you are practically guaranteed to not compete) if:
- your farm system has not produced any impact (read: top of the rotation pitchers) within 5 years (2008-2013)
- you do not sign top of the rotation free agents
- you do not trade for top of the rotation free agents
(Pavano was never a top of the rotation free agent)
Not sure what the rate is in other organizations, but if you look at the organizations that have been competing, they either have a lot of top of the rotation talent coming from the minors (Rays, As, Os) or they sign it (Yankees, Rangers, Phillies) or both (Red Sox, Cardinals)
If you do not do one of the 3 you will not compete. And the last time the Twins did #2 and #3, McPhail was the GM (Morris and Smiley), so they do have to develop talent. If they don't they have no chance in competing. May, Meyer and Worley are bringing the Twins to a good place (and with Gibson, Hendriks and Wimmers and the lower level kids on the hold.)
And to make my point, I checked and in 2008:
The Rays had David Price, Jeff Niemann, Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson (and Wade Davis) in their organization
the A's had Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden (and Mickey Storey)
I'm not questioning the blog, I would also just be curious what "normal" is. You've have to look at all of the organizations. If you have 1 player from the DSL team each year that eventually gets to the big leagues, that's great. It would also take more than four years from there. If you have 1-2 GCL guys that get to the big leagues, that's pretty good. Things haven't been great, but I don't think this would be unusual. The list of 11 shows one player who has already been arbitration-eligible (Duensing) and two others that have over 2 years of big league service time (Swarzak/Burnett) and guys like Robertson and Slama who have pitched in the big leagues. Hermsen was added to the 40 man roster on schedule. Again, I agree that the Twins haven't developed much pitching, but I just don't know what 11 players means. I think it would be normal for a great majority of those 97 players that you include would not make it, especially if you're including the DSL and GCL and ET. Why isn't Hendriks on this list? He was around. Are others missing? Gibson and Darnell
None of the 11 on the list would rank in the upper half of pitchers in MLB--a glaring example of the error of Twins pitching philosophy. Including the "injured"--still none.
What do you suppose "normal" turnover is? I suspect that in the 4 years since your list, the Twins have signed between 80 and 100 pitchers from the drafts and international signings. Obviously a number of minor league free agents have been signed as well. I think the Twins have been hurt by a large number of injuries during this time. Clearly your point that not enough pitchers have developed into quality major leaguers is a valid one. But I am not sure that just looking at the number of pitchers from the spring of 2009 and checking on how many remain in the organization really tells you anything.
If you always do what you have always done,
You always get what you have always gotten.
I like big Mark McGwire for the hall, but other than that I've got no arguments with the guys you listed, definitely a very deep year for HOF. I am interested to see what happens with Edgar Martinez being that he was primary a DH.
Jairo Perez was released from the organization under a veil of secrecy last summer, with no explanations given (apparently it was for "unprofessional contract detrimental to the team and such".) Ended up finishing the season with the Wingnuts and AirDogs... Romero along with Carroll and Sobolewski are the internal choices (and maybe some of the other middle infielders like Escobar and Florimon); but TR went out and looked for more (offering a contract to Hannahan, according to his words), which means that he is not happy with the internal choices. Really there is not much there... And I really think that Plouffe is getting his act together and needs encouragement (and not a fire underneath him...) and he is not part of the problem the last couple seasons.
Jairo Perez? Romero? From your free agent list there would be a clue to say there is no competition out there.
Plouffe seems to have the talent. When Plouffe is hot, he is a formidable hitter and a passable fielder. Maybe this will be the year when it all gels for Plouffe.