I don't see the rush to extend Dozier. He's under team control for 4 more years and hasn't displayed the high batting average that I would like to see. If he were hitting 20-30 points the last few seasons, along with the high OBP and homeruns, i'd be all for it. At this point though, no. I also want to see what Santana, Rosario and Sano bring to the table, as all three could potentially be more complete players than Dozier.
Same goes with Plouffe. Batting average is too low and he's not really hitting the homeruns this season either. He's one of those "on again off again" players that drives you nuts. I'd offer him a one year deal at most with the understanding that he's likely just a stop gap guy.
Suzuki. I like him a lot. I do think that his plate calling is a bit overrated but no one can argue that he has done a fantastic job in lieu of Mauer wimping out and the front office's fear of committing to Pinto. The problem is he's already 30+ and unlikely to repeat this years stats. He's probably less likely of accepting a backup job and backup dollars either after the all-star game. My recommendation.... sell high but don't overplay your hand.
Morales.....no. He's just another overpriced "has been" that Boras is trying to scam the Twins into buying (see also mike 'paltry' pelfrey). I find it strange that a guy who has been with the team less than 2 months already wants an extension. Smells fishy; injury concern? Anyways, he's already 31 and not part of the future plans.
Willingham. Should have been dealt two years ago, but alas he's still here. Hopefully Minnesota can find the right trading partner and deal him. I just don't see the sense of signing a 35 year old to a multi-year deal when the team is in the middle of rebuilding. I wouldn't expect much in return just another roster clearing move.
Correia - No
Fein - also no
Brings me to Pelfrey and Nolasco. I am of the strong opinion that Mike is simply a lost cause. He has not been healthy in over two years and with May ready and Meyer close behind, why do the Twins need him? DFA him eat the remainder of his contract (5 mil).
Nolasco. I'll admit I was excited about this signing, especially if Garza was the other piece to be added. Unfortunately, that didn't happen and what I've seen of Ricky, is mostly a junk tossing, meat baller. This guy is prototypical national league pitcher all the way. It's amazing that he's had the winning seasons in the past. (again don't over estimate the NL). I think the Twins just need to admit this was a bad move and find anyone willing to take him off our hands in exchange for half his salary. Ricky sucks.
I'd extend Dozier, love the way he plays and he seems like a very marketable player on team that needs several. He had me at the camp suit.
As far as Willingham I'd keep him around on a one year deal and assume a Thome role (DH/PH). The compensation must reflect this role.
Suzuki I would extend two years if the salary is reasonable 2 years 10/12 million.
Morales no, Correa no, Fein no, and for Plouffe nothing beyond year-to-year at this point.
Their system likes age & and on base %. Thus Polanco is gets love.
That also explains the high rankings for Kepler and Harrison.
@ tarheel, all I did was input the Twins prospects' PA, AB, 2B, 3B, HR values into the tool on the beyondtheboxscore site (linked above), to produce zK, zBB, and zISO values which I then plugged into St John's other tool (sounds dirtier than it was). The tool based on the 41,000 minor league player seasons. That produced the probabilities described above.
It is something that could be studied. The data has been shown to be consistent year to year for catchers. It is also easy for catchers to gather a large sample in a short time.
How consistent is the data for individual for pitchers? To get a better sample size pitching roles could be compared. Do mop up men do better since they are in low leverage situations? Is it more difficult for closers? Of all the Twins Burton has lost the greatest percentage of strikes this year so I am not sure how that fits.
Max Marchi, Dan Turkenkopf and Mike Fast are the pioneers in this area. All of them have been hired by major league clubs. Perhaps this is the kind of detail they are doing for their organizations.
I have long dreamed and proposed that the incomplete overhang be extended in both directions, ultimately extending from the break in center field to the foul pole. To further add to the new look, scrap the existing boring digital scoreboard- bring back an analog look!, and then recreate a version of the stone arch bridge as "supports" for the overhang, with portions of the scoreboard within each T:
but built with arches like the most iconic public works project in the state:
That would be beautiful! The Cardinals have incorporated a Mississippi bridge design into their stadium and it is awesome. Please send this to the Twins FO and owners.
Your own data could point to other factors affecting the call of the pitches. If it is pitch framing causing the ball to be called a strike you should relatively even numbers for all of the pitchers. That is not the case. Deduno has and Pelfrey had control issues. Their deviation is higher. Umpires are expecting them to be out of the zone and call it that way. Perkins pitches when the game is on the line, he does not get the free strikes. Umpires want to call a fair game when the game is on the line. Swarzak tends to pitch when the game is not on the line, he got more calls. That would support the notion the umpire wants to move the game along.
Can you explain this in more detail please.
I'll be happy if Buxton finishes the year developmentally where Sano finished 2013--having spent some time in 2013 at AA with success but not outrageous success, leaving us to debate whether he should start next year at AA or AAA. If he can make it to that point by the end of the season, then even with the wrist injury, I'll consider this year a modest success in his development.
Are the Twins slow to promote? Yes, but honestly, that bugs me the least with 20-year-olds like Buxton. At this point, every year longer it takes him to reach the majors is one more year of his prime that the Twins get at a reduced price.
I mean, the Cardinals kept a 20-year-old Oscar Taveras at AA for 124 games while he put up a .321/.380/.572 line, then at AAA for 108 games over the better part of two seasons while he hit .313/.358/.485. In return, they'll control him until he's 28. The Rays are also known for sitting on guys who've mastered the minors to maximize their effectiveness in the majors.
On the other hand, you have the Marlins, who slotted a 20-year-old Jose Fernandez into their starting rotation while they went 62-100, threw away a service year while Fernandez sits out with Tommy John, and will lose him to Free Agency following his age 25 season.
There's a certain injustice to making a player who's ready to contribute at the major league level wile away in the minors, but I tend to think waiting for a player to demonstrate mastery of a level and then promoting isn't a bad way to go. I far prefer it to the current Aaron Hicks debacle.
We'll done! Extremely interesting, for a non-tech savvy person like myself!
Yeah that's what I don't understand. We always wait with our talent.
Both lefties on that list showed horrible with both (though so did Gibson and Pelfrey). I'd be curious to see Thielbar, just as an extra data point, though I honestly doubt you could determine anything by that.
Hopefully he'll reach AA by the end of the season. But it's too early to call up him in September - they won't want to add him to the 40 man roster this early in his career. Knowing the Twins, they won't start his clock yet.
I'd love some feedback if anyone wants to say something.
Good work. I appreciate the look from a different lens.
I don't think it is set to 0. It happens to be close. The median team is slightly negative, but the 6 top teams weigh the data towards the positive side.
Pinto isn't a good pitch framer. Suzuki isn't either. Both are better than Doumit. The Twins rank 30th again.
Good work jorgenswest.. is the league +/- percentage right at 0.0? If so I'd say Pinto is just fine as a pitch framer. (selectively throwing out Correia and Pelfrey, both who will not be around here much longer.)
Interesting to see how well Kepler and Harrison are stacking up in these. The sudden onrush of decent pitching prospects in our system has seemed to push those two a little into the afterthoughts category with a lot of us.
I had to update the tables because I had Polanco's 2013 level wrong (A+ instead of A). He still comes out looking ok.