I can't believe that the Twins have as detailed a plan for '17 as you provide options for. They can play a little what-if, but more than that would be like deciding now to put on the snowshoes in 4 weeks because the 4-week forecast calls for a late-spring snow. Which option is more likely? Who knows, and does it matter? Either could happen.
I think Ryan would spend on position players but not pitching. Pitchers break to easily. It is not his money, but I do not think that Ryan was happy on how the money was spent on pitching last year.
Hope is good. I invite everyone to hope.
History, however, suggests otherwise. As long as Terry Ryan is GM the Twins will not spend big on a FA.
That doesn't mean that the scenario you laid out couldn't produce a team that will win a lot of games and be fun to watch.
I agree with your implication, though, that if they do not fill the holes with actual value players they are unlikely to be a World Series team.
Nags are going hard after Peter Bourjos of the Angels, who has been displaced by Mike Trout. So it seems unlikely that Span will end up with the Nats. But you never know...
I'm not feeling the Nats, either. How about the Rays? They'll need a CF for next year after BJ Upton departs. Span's game should play well on the turf, and he's a Tampa native, so they should like that from a PR standpoint in addition to the cost certainty of his contract. They have a surplus of good starting pitching, a huge need for the Twins, particularly with the injuries to Gibson and Wimmers. How about starting a package around Alex Cobb?
I don't see the Twins sending Span anywhere where they can't get a decent haul for him, and right now, it seems as though the Nationals don't have the correct players healthy enough for the Twins to want to trade their veteran lead-off hitter. If they are going to trade Span, they need to be looking for at least 1+ above-average prospects in return because of what Span is to the Twins: A good lead-off guy, covers a lot of ground, and plays tough, and he has a better arm than Ben Revere. So I don't think the Twins will be giving him up unless they get at least one solid SP and RP prospects.
That's that then. I still think that the best match for the Twins for Span are the Phillies and a bitter Phillies-Nats rivarly is starting :)
All the 2011-draftees of the Nats were deadline signs.
Rendon was drafted in 2011. Not sure when he signed, but players need to be in an organization for at least one year before they get traded, so that is a non-starter :) Plus Rendon is about as far along as Sano is for the Twins, so that would not make much sense. Same with their top P prospect, Alex Myer. He was drafted last season.
Someone like Tyler Moore might be a starting block. But he is a first baseman and not a P and the Twins need pitching. Solis cannot be traded injured. The Nats gave all of their pitching to the As in the Gio Gonzales trade. I just don't think that there is enough there for the Twins, unless they are willing to part with someone like Ross Detwiler (who is playing over his head anyways and will probably be a bust in the AL).
I just don't see it
I don't think it changed in the newest CBA, but don't forget about the Pete Incaviglia Rule. The one that prohibits teams from trading players for a year after they sign. Almost all of the players you mentioned as likely targets couldn't be traded until August 15th. (So while they could be PTBNL, they couldn't be named until then.) This was part of the reason that the signing deadline was moved to before the draft deadline.
They didn't grab any "proven closers" off the waiver wire this past winter that we can ask for?
Baseball America is seriously downtrending on Appel. They don't like his strikeout rate for a college pitcher...and isn't that what we're really looking for? OTOH, they're really high on Zimmers from USF. Just because someone once used "Verlander" in a sentence with "Appel" and "potential," I'm not convinced he's the guy. It does seem like the Twins are going to take a power pitcher, though. The safer (and also necessary due to one of the worst trades in Twins history) pick might be Mike Zunino, C, Florida.
It is fun to project these things even though we all know that a whole lot will change. I feel much better about the future of the position players than the starting rotation, hopefully Gibson and Wimmers can get past their issues and develop into solid starters. If the projections hold up (or at least mostly hold up), the Twins would be set up for a long window because many of the key players would just be entering their prime and would be under club control and at relatively cheap rates for a number of years afterwards. I could see a window of 2016-2020 or longer.
BTW, Appel, Gibson, and Wimmers will all be two years younger in 2015 than you list here.
Good read. It's fun to look that far in the future. Hopefully Sano and the rest advance like we hope they will!
I'd probably put Harrison in the 1B/DH mix as well (maybe 3B also). Really hard to tell about the rotation though... Salcedo should probably be included as well and who knows who will come out of nowhere in 3 years...
I have to agree with the guys you have here, but I also wouldn't forget about the Twins' compensation round picks in '11, who look like decent players if they recover from their injuries. I also think it a little unlikely that Michael will reach the bigs at 24; that's a good turnaround, even for a first round pick. Also, for the 4th outfielder I would have Span, as his arm is better than Revere's, he might be a tad slower than Revere, and when he is healthy, he is much better at getting on base than Revere.
With the 2nd pick of the draft we are sure to get a nice prospect however its the later picks that separate the men from the boys. Here's hoping that the Twins keep an eye on Alex Wood.
Ill concede the well researched point to you. You pegged me with the frustration part....I cant get over everyone being content with the lowering of the payroll. We are no longer a small market team, but I believe Ryan will execute all of our moves with that logic. Free agaency was weak this year, but I would love to have seen a few trades the could have upgraded this team. Would we still contend this year? Probably not, hate to say this, but were are owed as vested tax payers and season ticket holders, a legitimate attempt. It is not as if he said were are rebuilding (maybe we should be), and with that being said, he surely could have done much more to upgrade this team.
How is Ryan acquiring Castillo not an example of him improving the team? I'll concede that Ryan was bs-ing when he said Casilla was ready, but what was he going to come out and say, that Luis Castillo's career was over? If you looked up the stats you would see that Casilla & Castillo have been pretty much the same player since the trade. Dont believe me look at the numbers? If you like paying 10x for similar production that’s your right, but I respect smart, savvy baseball moves.
08-11 G Triple Slash wOBA wRC+ UZR WAR $
Luis Castillo 315 .270/.366/.315 .318 94 -13.0 3.2 $24,750,000
Alexi Casilla 344 .257/.318/.351 .304 85 -4.2 2.7 $2,157,500
I wouldn’t call the Willingham signing low budget. He was appropriate market value for a guy who out-hit both Kubel and Cuddyer last year. Carrol’s signing was an overpay, if anything, and what other MI would you have preferred they sign? Do you think they should have paid $106M for Reyes? Ryan Doumit’s signing has been widely praised as one of the best signings of the off season. I am going to give Ryan credit for his free agency signings this year as this is the only year he has had 100m payroll to sign players with. If you think I am drinking koolaid that’s fine, but these are my conclusions that I came to after reading, researching, and calculating everything I could get my hands on. As a season ticket holder myself, I understand your frustration. I just think there a more positives to be excited about then to keep harping on negatives everyone has already heard and are tired of hearing about.
You are going to actually state Todd Jones and the same Luis Castillo who he later traded not because of the money but because Alexi was ready as examples of a GM upgrading a play off ready team???....Shannon Stewart I will give you, but thats it. Every move has has made and every move he is going to make is purely about the money. Ryan spent money on Carrol, Willingham and Doumit? No, he got low budget deals for an often injured outfielder, a 38 year old short stop with the range of a tree and a back up catcher who wont play first. How in the world can this make you happy? Keep on drinking that koolaid, my goodness!! " I think the Twins realized that the free agent market this off season and their needs did not match up all that strongly".....How many times has Mr. Ryan stated that type of crap over the years? Unless said free agent is 40 or coming off 15 surgeries, they will never match up strongly with the Twins plans. Mr. Ryan deserves credit for drafting and molding young talent. He deserves no credit for anything regarding the free agent market.