I think I have your question down
Meche, Guthrie, and Silva no way even before hindsight would have proved one right would I have signed one to a contract.
Lackey was a free agent in 09 but like Santana and Beddard has missed time since 07. That would equate to a 1:4 chance of a deserving pitcher playing all of the way through a long contract You win a lot of money off people who gamble with a 25% chance of winning.
Only shell out big money if it is going to be for the piece(s) that complete(s) your team. There will be pitchers of similar calibur available almost every year, so it makes sense to wait until we are acutally in that position.
Go for it, my brother.
I felt it was fair to look at top 28-year-olds, whether or not they were up for new contracts, as comps for Sanchez. I suppose there is the folklore that players let up once they are comfortable, but I don't really go for that.
Instead of asking "In hindsight, would you have signed Carlos Silva to a 5 year contract after 2007 because he was 28?" (which he didn't sign), is, how have pitchers who commanded 5 year+ contracts in free agency at age 28 faired historically, and how can we use that sample, instead of this pretty random group of 28 year olds from 2007, to make some kind of prediction about how a 5 year commitment to Sanchez will eventually wind up looking? Obviously to do that you would have to go back through the years 2007 and earlier. Maybe I will blog about it myself one of these days if you don't want to.
Nurse is right that $80M wouldn't do it. But the angle I was taking was whether to go after him at all, once a 5-year contract at significant per-year price was established.
As for WH's point about Zito, I was trying to take a less-anecdotal approach and consider an off-season five years earlier than when I was writing, and use that to try to project five years from then. Seven pitchers is SSS of course, but when the argument is that Sanchez is special due to his young age at 28, SSS may be all you get. I guess I'm trying to claim that SSS > anecdote. Since I'm not sure what longitudinal means in this context, I have to take a pass on your last paragraph. It's true that one bad contract like Zito's does not have to kill a team, and revenues/contracts have historically tended to rise, but it makes threading the needle just that much harder; 18 million here and 18 million there and pretty soon you're talking big money.
Thanks for the comments.
Take the poster child for "classic bad pitching contract," Barry Zito. 7 years, 126 million. He's in the final year of it now, and earning less in terms of AAV than Buehrle and Santana. But he was signed a year earlier, and got locked into 2006 salaries and projections instead of 2008 or 2012 salaries and projections. It should go without sayin but those things tend to go up pretty fast in baseball.
Which is why I think this aversion to long-term contracts is overblown. Even if your guy turns into a Zito, a team can still be a consistent contender as the Giants have shown.
I like the longitudinal approach here but I think you should compare how much the guys who have been piecemealed onto contracts over that span have earned and produced, as compared to the guys who were locked up to big deals early. Carlos Silva earned 45 million between 2 separate 2-year contracts after leaving the Twins while posting a 6.77 ERA in under 200 innings. Nowhere near as bad as Zito's in retrospect. Heck, even Meche managed to post two 200+ inning seasons of sub-4 ERA ball in his 5-year, 55 million/deal. A bad contract but hardly an albatross in 2012 money, the final year of his deal.
*edited for clarity
Since you would have to outbid Detroit the question should be do you sign Sanchez at 5 and 90.
No idea whether BBF is the source for that hideously ugly photoshoop or if they just stole it fair and square like I did.
kinda like ;Bastard Boy Floyd' one
Thanks. Some players seem to attract many negative anagrams - Florimon as you noted seemed to result in nothing but bad ones, and Tyler Robertson likewise had more than a fair share. Is there a correlation to on-field talent? Not on purpose, but maybe it's fate. Doesn't bode well for Brian Duensing, in that case. The uncensored version is at:
I welcome any additions someone comes up with.
These are bizarre and wonderful. I missed them the first time around; my favorites between both lists are:
Pedro Florimon: Implode For Ron
Darin Mastroianni: Indiana Rainstorm
Pedro Hernandez: End Red Porn Haze
Fun stuff. Thank you ashburyjohn.
The aim to bring a business mentality to every aspect of life would be shocking even to the Mad Men of the 50s-60s. And this trial balloon by the Twins touches some of us in this way.
Maybe, Jim Pohlad's real passion is golf? Or RC flying, or dominatrix roleplay. Maybe its (gasp) not baseball, like it is for you and me. Maybe he leaves the office at 5 o'clock and tries to forget about what he did at the office that day just like every other schmuck.
I put the uncensored list on the web at http://www.skypoint.com/members/ashbury/anagrams
Starting pitching is so difficult to find. The Twins should be interested.
John, this is one of those decisions where makeup and scrappiness might actually mean something (in addition to his FIP ). I would strongly consider the trade with a good signoff from my scouts, if he has a real willingness to put in the time, and if we could get him for a light trade-off (middling prospect(s) in the Minors). That being said, he would be a Twin till 2016 you say, but would this give us many years of him being good. All told, I can't imagine the Tigers would trade him for what I would offer, but it's worth a shot to make a call.
Yeah, it doesn't really make sense. But they got another year of him in the system by not 40-manning him, something similar to what they did with Kyle Waldrop and, also, Cole DeVries. Be interesting to see if they try it with Carlos Gutierrez this fall.
Slama's 28 years old, right? Not wasting a year on the 40-man thus prevents his prematurely reaching the free-agent market when he's, what, 32, 33, 34? I'm never sure.
The Twins may actually be waiting to add Slama as a 40-man guy for the 2013 season rather than waste a year by adding him this year. So that might be good news. Again, anyone added in November can't be cut until after spring training, so you need some dead bodies to cut if you add free agents.
I believe several of the mentioned above players will be outrighted at the end of the season, Manship, Carson, Butera, maybe Walters and De Vires. My guess is the roster will have to be cleared to add players that will need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft.
Have not had time to research the players that need to be added(sorry), but have seen a couple of lists in prior posts. Also add Casilla to the list of probably will be outrighted as he has been given 3 chances to take the position and is 0 - 3.