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  1. Jeremy Nygaard's Avatar
    I basically tried to make the same point on Twitter tonight. For one, the Yankees haven't exactly been world beaters when it comes to the IFA market anyway. But this strategy is going to prove costly in my opinion. Luckily for them, cost is no issue. This certainly isn't going to turn their farm into anything special. They'd have been better off to take all the preps that fell in the draft and forfeit draft picks.
  2. old nurse's Avatar
    MLBprospect guide.com lists the following as amateur free agent signings in 2007. Note this includes players from Cuba, Japan, and Canada
    Kelvin De Leon OF $1,100,000 2007 D.R.
    Young Il-Jung RHP $1,000,000 2007 Korea
    Julio Teheran RHP $850,000 2007 Colombia
    Martin Perez LHP $580,000 2007 Venezuela
    Jefry Marte 3B $550,000 2007 D.R.
    Dae-Eun Rhee RHP $525,000 2007 Korea
    Cesar Puello OF $400,000 2007 D.R.
    Rymer Liriano OF $300,000 2007 D.R.
    Esmailin Caridad RHP $175,000 2007 D.R.
    Tomas Telis C $130,000 2007 Venezuela
    Roman Mendez RHP $125,000 2007 D.R.
    Wilfredo Boscan RHP $15,000 2007 Venezuela
    Enrique Burgos RHP 2007 Panama
    Arodys Vizcaino RHP 2007 D.R.
    Dimasther Delgado LHP 2007 Panama
    Chris Jakubauskas RHP 2007 amateur free agent
    Michael Almanzar 3B 2007 D.R.
    Hideki Okajima LHP 2007 Japan
    Che-Hsuan Lin OF 2007 Taiwan
    Junior Lake SS 2007 D.R.
    Kosuke Fukudome CF 2007 Japan
    Larry Suarez RHP 2007 Venezuela
    Alexei Ramirez SS 2007 Cuba
    CJ Retherford 3B 2007 NDFA
    Juan Duran OF 2007 D.R.
    Mariekson Gregorius SS 2007 Netherlands
    Jason Smit SS 2007 Austrailia
    Alexander Perez RHP 2007 D.R.
    Gustavo Nunez SS 2007 D.R.
    Avisail Garcia OF 2007 Venezuela
    Yuniesky Betancourt SS 2007 Cuba
    Tim Collins LHP 2007 NDFA
    Jean Segura 2B 2007 D.R.
    Manny Correa RHP 2007 D.R.
    Fabio Martinez RHP 2007 D.R.
    Alexi Amarista SS 2007 Venezuela
    Pedro Baez 3B 2007 D.R.
    Hiroki Kuroda RHP 2007 Japan
    Santos Arias RHP 2007 D.R.
    Adrian Salcedo RHP 2007 D.R.
    Daniel Santana SS 2007 D.R.
    Scott Diamond LHP 2007 NDFA
    Oswaldo Arcia OF 2007 Venezuela
    Jenrry Mejia RHP 2007 D.R.
    Jordany Valdespin 2B 2007 D.R.
    Jeurys Familia RHP 2007 D.R.
    Francisco Pena C 2007 D.R.
    Wilmer Flores SS 2007 Venezuela
    Jose Ramirez RHP 2007 D.R.
    Arnold Leon RHP 2007 Mexico
    Leandro Castro OF 2007 D.R.
    Starling Marte OF 2007 D.R.
    Masahide Kobayashi RHP 2007 amateur free agent
    Yasuhiko Yabuta RHP 2007 amateur free agent
    Jonathan Galvez SS 2007 D.R.
    Edinson Rincon 3B 2007 D.R.
    Gabriel Noriega SS 2007 Venezuela
    Jorge Bucardo RHP 2007 Nicaragua
    Richard Castillo RHP 2007 Venezuela
    Alexander Colome RHP 2007 D.R.
    Wilking Rodriguez RHP 2007 Venezuela
    Leury Garcia SS 2007 D.R.
    Manny Solis 3B 2007 D.R.
    Eury Perez OF 2007 D.R.
    Marcos Frias RHP 2007 D.R.
  3. Otwins's Avatar
    Very interesting. Thanks for the post. It is high stakes lottery.
  4. ericchri's Avatar
    Nice bit of research. Also interesting, the biggest success story of the bunch is from Colombia, not Venezuela or the DR where most of the big-namers are from.
  5. Willihammer's Avatar
    It was interesting watching the NESN broadcast during the Boston series - they pin a foxtrax on the screen similar to ESPN during the playoffs. It was clear the Twins were losing strikes. Suzuki just seems to give up on some pitches, almost like he cant be bothered to even try and frame them. I believe this is why he doesn't get some of the borderline calls - he doesn't seem to want them.
  6. Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
    Are umpires a variable?
  7. jorgenswest's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by old nurse
    Turkenkopf who did the some of the first writing on pitch framing found a .30 correlation between pitch framing and runs scored. That would be why some teams don't make it as big of deal.
    Turkenkopf also wrote one time that there was variability between what inning and score of the game had an effect on if pitch framing was effective or not.
    That data that is certain is how many pitches were miss called. The actual effect on the outcome of the game was not. Even at .30 correlation pitch framing has some effect. How much over the course of a season has not been shown.
    It probably should be added that Dan Turkenkopf has worked in the office of a major league team for the last two seasons. He and Mike Fast were significant contributors to the study. The Tampa Bay Rays hired him. I don't think there is any disagreement on which side of the argument the Rays have taken in this debate.
  8. old nurse's Avatar
    Turkenkopf who did the some of the first writing on pitch framing found a .30 correlation between pitch framing and runs scored. That would be why some teams don't make it as big of deal.
    Turkenkopf also wrote one time that there was variability between what inning and score of the game had an effect on if pitch framing was effective or not.
    That data that is certain is how many pitches were miss called. The actual effect on the outcome of the game was not. Even at .30 correlation pitch framing has some effect. How much over the course of a season has not been shown.
  9. Sconnie's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs
    1.) They're not missing anything in Presley,Mastroianni or Raley.
    2.) The Twins have done a great job of adding minor league free agents in recent years. The fact that three of them this year were former Twins doesn't change that.
    3.) Deduno, Burton, Fien have been pretty important pitchers for the Twins, and the Twins have had contributions from many minor league signings going back many years, including '87 and '91.
    4.) Sometimes minor league signings are brought in so as not to rush top prospects and put them in situations that they can stunt their growth.
    5.) Kubel was a given to make the roster, and he's shown that to be a good decision to this point in the season. He's a proven hitter who was hurt last year. He was brought in to DH, but he's been much more.
    6.) I liked the Bartlett signing. He had missed a year and a half, so I thought it would be a great situation to sign him, bring him to camp, and then get him to Rochester to play all over the diamond and see if he could shake off the rust and potentially become a utility type. Or, with Pedro Florimon as the incumbent, maybe he would have a chance to start at SS at some point during the season if needed. I think having him on the opening day roster was a mistake, but that doesn't make the minor league signing a bad thing.
    7.) As for Guerrier, he's been a solid MLB guy for a decade. No harm in signing him. I guess they could keep Logan Darnell at the back of the bullpen, pitching irregularly, but I would think they (and we) would want him preparing as a starting pitcher for now.
    8.) Hey, that Chris Colabello guy turned out to be a pretty strong minor league signing.

    To summarize, putting together an MLB roster can be done in many ways... Sure would be nice if they were all 1st round picks who turned out, right?
    how do 1 and 4 jive? Raley I get, I see him as more of an upside guy for the future, but he won't help the big league club this year, maybe he would've helped in 2015. Man Hicks needs some AAA time, and have another AAAA stop gap such as Mastroianni or Pressly to Platoon with Fuld and to spell Kubel would allow Hicks to get his head straight and his fielding and swing together, and the roster crunch wouldn't hurt so bad. This would also leave a CF with options at AAA for when the unforeseen happens.

    Of course, Hicks in AAA would also be debated...
  10. SgtSchmidt11's Avatar
    The signings are STILL not bad ideas, it's the use of 40 man and 25 man roster space that is the issue.
  11. Paul Pleiss's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Seth Stohs
    Sure would be nice if they were all 1st round picks who turned out, right?
    Yes, yes it would. I know the draft is a bit of a lottery, and that not everyone works out, but it feels like the Twins either missed badly or allowed their first round picks to leave the organization.

    But I think there is also something more on the topic of letting "stars" get out of the organization, because the team was unwilling to pony up for a large contract, or trading them away to "try to get something." There seems to me to be a large number of former Twins being very successful for other teams in MLB. Have the Twins just given up on some players too soon? Should the Twins should have paid guys to keep them? Clearly letting Johan go worked out in the long run for the Twins as the Mets have largely paid him to rehab from injury. There does though, seem to be a lot of successful former Twins out there, especially starters who found success after leaving MN (and no, this is not my attempt to get a rant going on Rick Anderson, which is someething else I enjoy).

    Also, Torii Hunter, I miss that guy.
  12. jorgenswest's Avatar
    Signing decline phase players in hope that they will return to former success keeps the Twins from seeking other options.

    All of the successful signings listed above were younger than the trio signed this winter. They all came with multiple years of team control. They didn't come with opt out dates that forced the Twins hand with roster decisions.

    Those signings can not be compared to the signings of the former Twins trio in terms of risk or upside.
  13. Seth Stohs's Avatar
    1.) They're not missing anything in Presley,Mastroianni or Raley.
    2.) The Twins have done a great job of adding minor league free agents in recent years. The fact that three of them this year were former Twins doesn't change that.
    3.) Deduno, Burton, Fien have been pretty important pitchers for the Twins, and the Twins have had contributions from many minor league signings going back many years, including '87 and '91.
    4.) Sometimes minor league signings are brought in so as not to rush top prospects and put them in situations that they can stunt their growth.
    5.) Kubel was a given to make the roster, and he's shown that to be a good decision to this point in the season. He's a proven hitter who was hurt last year. He was brought in to DH, but he's been much more.
    6.) I liked the Bartlett signing. He had missed a year and a half, so I thought it would be a great situation to sign him, bring him to camp, and then get him to Rochester to play all over the diamond and see if he could shake off the rust and potentially become a utility type. Or, with Pedro Florimon as the incumbent, maybe he would have a chance to start at SS at some point during the season if needed. I think having him on the opening day roster was a mistake, but that doesn't make the minor league signing a bad thing.
    7.) As for Guerrier, he's been a solid MLB guy for a decade. No harm in signing him. I guess they could keep Logan Darnell at the back of the bullpen, pitching irregularly, but I would think they (and we) would want him preparing as a starting pitcher for now.
    8.) Hey, that Chris Colabello guy turned out to be a pretty strong minor league signing.

    To summarize, putting together an MLB roster can be done in many ways... Sure would be nice if they were all 1st round picks who turned out, right?
  14. Hosken Bombo Disco's Avatar
    Thanks jorgenswest for putting this together.

    Like Sconnie said, a case might be made for any one of those guys in isolation. Now step back and consider that all three of them together were essentially promised a spot on the team, regardless of their spring training performance (or, non performance) or regardless of what if anything they had to contribute.
  15. Sconnie's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by goulik
    None of the losses were part of a future and our present day is an experiment to find the future. We can find more guys like them in the future. I am not concerned that Alex Pressly, Darin Masroianni and Brooks Raley are gone. If I told my wife and friends their responses would be all the same. Who are they? Exactly!
    I have been back and forth on Bartlett [Et Al] throughout the offseason, and I might be one of the quotes. Signing one of Bartlett, Kubel, Guerrier, in isolation isn't the end of the world, but when it's 3 and you owe all three of them roster spots, that's a lot of risk.

    Pressly and Mastro are both sorely missed, and Raley was certainly more a part of the future than Guerrier. This team is doubly worse because of Bartlett and Guerrier's presence and the players lost associated as such.

    if Pressly and Mastro are so easily replaceable, why is Hicks futilely hacking away and losing fly balls with the big league club?
  16. goulik's Avatar
    None of the losses were part of a future and our present day is an experiment to find the future. We can find more guys like them in the future. I am not concerned that Alex Pressly, Darin Masroianni and Brooks Raley are gone. If I told my wife and friends their responses would be all the same. Who are they? Exactly!
  17. Sconnie's Avatar
    Good stuff jorgenwest. I'm very excited for Meyer and May
  18. Sconnie's Avatar
    I agree that Bartlett and Kubel preclude the front office from acquiring young talent for a rebuild, and this is indeed far too old of a team to be considered a youthful rebuild.

    What does AA and AAA look like for major league caliber and ready prospects for each team? I'm not certain, but maybe Chicago had to acquire young players because they had none in their system ready and adequate for the bigs.

    i think this will be a telling season for the Twins front office. By mid season you could see the full rebuild on.
  19. bear333's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell
    Agree, agree, agree! Unless the Twins somehow catch lightning in a bottle and everybody has a peak year and they contend, they must turn over the roster to younger, higher ceilinged players. Every player over thirty not born in Minnesota really should be on the block. I was thinking that success this year would be measured by the progress of the young players and when I mentally went through them, I realized how many over-30s were on the team. I still stand by that definition of success: It will be a good year if Arcia, Gibson, Pinto, and Hicks establish themselves and I'll add Plouffe to that list.

    The Twins will open with only one player born in the '90s (Osvaldo Arcia) and two born in the '70s (Bartlett & Willingham)
    The Twins brain trust have discovered a new way to frustrate the fans and assure another loosing season: They have created the unique situation of having six, that is right, six legitimate starting pitchers who will receive no run support this year. Thanks for creating a whole new reason not to come out to watch a game.
  20. bear333's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by stringer bell
    Agree, agree, agree! Unless the Twins somehow catch lightning in a bottle and everybody has a peak year and they contend, they must turn over the roster to younger, higher ceilinged players. Every player over thirty not born in Minnesota really should be on the block. I was thinking that success this year would be measured by the progress of the young players and when I mentally went through them, I realized how many over-30s were on the team. I still stand by that definition of success: It will be a good year if Arcia, Gibson, Pinto, and Hicks establish themselves and I'll add Plouffe to that list.

    The Twins will open with only one player born in the '90s (Osvaldo Arcia) and two born in the '70s (Bartlett & Willingham)
    I have been pulling my hair out all spring about this. Their only hope was to go young, and they have the players to do it. I think this is about Gardenhire not wanting to deal with young players. Which is why he should have been replaced last year. Gardenhire, Willingham, Kubel and Bartlett should excuse themselves from the Twins and join a seniors softball team.
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