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jorgenswest

  1. International Signings: How many of the top signings make it?

    The Yankees have poured millions into international signings this summer. In doing so they will give up the right to sign players to more than $300,000 over the next two years and pay a large tax. Is it worth it? How easy is it to determine the best players to sign at age 16?

    In order to help answer that question I went to look at the top signings of the 2007 and 2006 seasons. Players signed in those seasons have now had 7 or 8 years to develop. They needed to be put on 40 man rosters
    ...

    Updated 07-05-2014 at 08:17 AM by jorgenswest

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  2. Twins and Catcher Framing

    Glen Perkins talked about Josmil Pinto and his ability to frame pitches. He didn't mention Kurt Suzuki. I guess he wasn't asked. Nor was he asked about Ryan Doumit in previous years.

    Since 2011 it has been debated about the Twins decision making on catcher and defense. At best, they are waiting to see if the data that has been available for many season has validity. At worst, they are ignorant and that ignorance shows in their roster decisions as well as their development of catchers ...
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  3. Maybe there was some risk...

    With the signings of Kubel, Bartlett and Guerrier, comments overwhelmingly went like these below.

    This isn't low risk..... it's NO risk
    Minor league deals don't cost anything.
    What's the negative??
    Minor league contracts have zero downside.
    Great move to give the Twins one more option without any risk whatsoever.
    It's nothing more than looking at every possible way to improve your team, with virtually zero cost and no
    ...
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  4. Some Samples No Longer Small: Pitchers

    Sample sizes for a few ratios are becoming large enough to consider. For pitchers, strike out rate stabilizes at 70 batters faced and ground ball and fly ball rate stabilizes at 70 balls in play. By stabilizing, that doesn’t necessarily mean it is the new expected rate. It does mean that any significant changes from previous year cannot be written off to small sample size. For minor leaguers a drop or change likely coincides with a step up in classification and the necessary adjustment. It is also ...

    Updated 05-03-2014 at 02:16 PM by jorgenswest

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  5. White Sox and Twins: Rebuilding

    The contrast in rebuild between the a White a Sox and Twins is shown in the acquisition of 27 and under players since last opening day.


    White Sox


    Adam Eaton
    Adrian Nieto
    Avisail Garcia
    Jose Abreau
    Leary Garcia
    Maikel Clato
    Conor Gilaspie almost makes the list. He was acquired last spring training.


    Twins


    Phil Hughes (actually it is his age 28 season and he is older than any of the White ...
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  6. Waiting to Rebuild

    I thought and hoped this would be the year where the Twins would go with youth. I should have known better. The direction for the winter roster construction was made clear when they retained Josh Willingham last August.

    Earl Battey was the catcher when I first became a young Twin fan. I recall his western oil 8x10 card hanging my wall among other Twin heroes. Those years were great. I didn't know how lucky I was to follow a team that was competitive or at least entertaining every year. ...

    Updated 03-27-2014 at 11:52 PM by jorgenswest

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  7. The Grapefruit Kings

    There are two teams with winning records the last three seasons in the Grapefruit League. The Twins and Tigers. In fact, the Twins have the longest string of winning records and haven't had a losing season since 2007 thanks to the performance of players like Aaron Hicks, Luke Hughes, Cole DeVries and Matt Maloney.


    ... and it means nothing.


    Spring training records and individual stat lines have no meaning. They shouldn't be used to argue that one player or ...
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  8. Kurt Suzuki - Signed to be the starter?

    Mike Berardino reported yesterday that Terry Ryan expected Kurt Suzuki to start at catcher. At the time of the signing, it appeared that Suzuki was signed to gibe the Twins a veteran backup. On this site, there were certainly questions about his defense and concern about the workload he carried early in his career. At the time, the best available options other than Suzuki were John Buck or retaining Doumit. While Suzuki has shown to be a poor pitch framer, Doumit and Buck are at the bottom. ...
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  9. FIP. Fielding Independent. Really?

    Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average. Fangraphs relies on FIP to calculate WAR for pitchers.

    Is FIP independent of the catcher?

    The following table shows pitching performance by catcher over the last two seasons.

    ...
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  10. Platoon Advantage

    Two topics that appeared in the forums led me to wonder which teams are getting the platoon advantage.

    How did the Indians do it? I look at their numbers and see a combined 6.1 WAR from Jan Gomes and Ryan Raburn. Those cheap additions will be the difference between contending for the wild card and being on the fringe. Francona has found a role for them to put up fantastic numbers.

    We also debated about how platooning might help the Twins.

    I wondered how often ...
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  11. Revisiting Catching and Defense

    My last blog topic on catcher defense was last November. The trade of Butera has prompted a revisit.

    Through July 26 while Ryan Doumit was catching, 46 out of zone balls were called strikes and 205 in zone strikes were called balls. They convert it to a ratio which for Doumit would be 0.22 extra strikes/lost strikes. That ratio is the worst in baseball and the next for a current catcher is twice the ratio at 0.44. The data is from Baseball Prospectus.


    How much difference ...

    Updated 07-31-2013 at 08:03 PM by jorgenswest

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  12. Trade Talk: Glen Perkins

    I have a little different format for this one as much has been written about Perkins. Dave Schoenfield's article recommending the Twins trade Glen Perkins in "Another Reason Closers are Overated".

    As I read his article is whether he was asking the right questions. The question should really be what happens to closers the following year. It should be how many teams have the same closer. How effective can we expect Perkins to remain in the next 2-3 years?

    As the ...

    Updated 07-12-2013 at 03:50 PM by jorgenswest

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  13. Trade Talk: Correia and Pelfrey

    The Twins signed to veteran back of the rotation starters last winter. Is it possible they might flip them in a midseason trade?

    Kevin Correia whose best skill might be his reliable health has performed at an ERA+ of 99 (essentially league average) this year. Mike Pelfrey is coming off injury and started poorly. He needs to put up a string of good starts in order to show that he is healthy. Neither player has a contract that is going to scare off a team.

    Earlier I look ...

    Updated 07-10-2013 at 04:03 PM by jorgenswest

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  14. Trade Talk: Brian Duensing

    One of the players this board has discussed trading is Brian Duensing. The thought is other teams might look to him as a left handed LOOGY.

    His line 5.06 ERA, 41g, 32in, 29k, 14bb (over his career left handed hitters have a .580 OPS)

    Why trade him?
    Brian is 30. He will be eligible for arbitration next year. He would likely be non-tendered. Caleb Thielbar appears to be the better option with Pedro Hernandez providing depth.

    Why keep him?
    He certainly
    ...
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