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  1. jay's Avatar
    mike, which tier begins to qualify as "good to great"? Tier 5? 6?
  2. mike wants wins's Avatar
    some teams accept that the last 2-3 years are the price you pay for the first few years, and are probably not counting on value in those last few years. You can decide to be fine with that or not.

    $/WAR is a great measure, if you are willing to live with low WAR, you can have a low budget, but then, you'll lose more, right? If it costs $6MM for 1 WAR, and you only spend $12MM, you get 2 wins.....or, if you pay more, you get more wins. If you pay for bad pitchers, you will generally get bad pitchers. Me? I'd rather pay for good to great pitchers, and not waste money on 1-2 WAR pitchers.
  3. Sconnie's Avatar
    Fantastic work. Great indicator of value in risk/reward, especially the tiered data sets.
  4. jay's Avatar
    Thanks. I'd have to agree with every bit of both your comments. If anything, the data here shows how rarely you can rely on these guys over the length of the contract. To see such a wide range in current results from our four free agents really shouldn't be all that surprising.

    I've made a few edits: changed the table to show seasons of the contract instead of date signed, corrected Lackey's contract info and updated the conclusion. I'm happy to upload the data to a public Google doc if anyone wants it.
    Updated 07-08-2014 at 09:29 PM by jay
  5. jorgenswest's Avatar
    Thanks for the good work.

    I hoping the a Twins stay away from decline phase pitchers until they have a foundation. There aren't many guys like a Hughes that hit free agency so young, but having the upside of age is critical to a team that needs to tear down and rebuild.
  6. Seth Stohs's Avatar
    Tremendous study. I'll likely have to spend some more time on it.

    But to answer the blog's question... I honestly don't expect a lot out of free agents. My belief, and I've stated this before, is that the biggest free agents rarely are worth the money, especially pitchers. The reality is players' primes are generally through age 31, maybe 32... and that's generally when they become free agents. So, in theory, most are beyond their best years.
  7. howieramone's Avatar
    Jay, thanks for your response. I would have thought differently.:)
  8. jay's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by Willihammer
    How does that chart look for guys tied to a draft pick? Those are guys who sign late and the Twins aren't interested in them, reportedly.
    If the Twins aren't interested in them, I think we'd want to exclude those data points so that we can see when pitchers who aren't attached to a qualifying offer actually sign.

    Since last year was the first offseason with the new qualifying offer rules and loss of draft pick (more importantly, bonus pool), it's easy to pick out who that was -- there were only two of them. Lohse is obviously the one data point way out in March. We could just cut off the chart February 8th without him. The other is Kuroda, who re-signed with the Yanks on November 20th. Without him, the chart would be slightly more steep from the left.
  9. jay's Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by howieramone
    Good job! The only thing I would add is, how the Tanaka deal plays out complicates this free agency period. No way the top tier starting pitchers will sign until that is resolved.
    Thanks!

    I left out int'l FAs since the posting fee complicates things. I think the closest example to what you're mentioning would be Darvish and the narrative that other top pitchers will wait didn't actually happen. Buerhle and CJ Wilson were the other two big SP contracts that offseason (2011/12). They both signed right around the Winter Meetings while the posting deadline for Darvish was still a week away.

    Tanaka could certainly influence this offseason. I'm just not so certain what kind of influence it will be.
  10. Willihammer's Avatar
    How does that chart look for guys tied to a draft pick? Those are guys who sign late and the Twins aren't interested in them, reportedly.
  11. howieramone's Avatar
    Good job! The only thing I would add is, how the Tanaka deal plays out complicates this free agency period. No way the top tier starting pitchers will sign until that is resolved.
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