Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

Buxton: "Pissed" at Twins for No Call-Up Decision...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 04:59 AM
According to the Star Tribune, Byron Buxton is displeased with the Twins after not being called up in September of 2018. According to Byr...
Full topic ›

Derek Falvey Interview on 1500 ESPN

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 01:08 AM
Falvey discusses Sano, payroll, etc. http://www.1500espn....an-mackey-judd/
Full topic ›

Twins Minor League Coaches/Coordinators

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 01:01 AM
The Twins made some changes this offseason already in their minor league system. Pitching coaches Ivan Arteaga and Henry Bonilla were let...
Full topic ›

Harold Baines and Lee Smith are Hall of Famers

Other Baseball Yesterday, 11:33 PM
MLB announced tonight that a 16-person committee decided that DH Harold Baines and RP Lee Smith are now Hall of Famers.   Here is th...
Full topic ›

Article: Standing Pat as a Strategy

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 11:24 PM
'As we speak cruel time is fleeing. Seize the day, believing as little as possible in the morrow.' – HoraceBy all appearances, this is go...
Full topic ›

Thought Exercise: What Would You Give For Cano & Diaz?

Today the big news will be a trade between the Mets and Mariners that brings secon baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz to the Mets. While it's fun to speculate, this deal likely could not have involved the Twins. Key to the deal is that Cano has a no-trade clause that he must waive, and doing so probably requires a return to New York City. But last I checked, we're four months from real baseball, so let's speculate anyway....
Image courtesy of © Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
How much fun would it have been to add Cano and Diaz to the Twin roster for next year? Cano gprovides a middle-of-the-order hitter at second base, and still leaves lots of room to add more offense at first base and designated hitter. Diaz is a 24-year-old lights-out closer who is under team control for four more years. Some of the bigger offseason challenges are handled in one early move.

Of course, the reason the Mariners made this deal is because Cano will make $24 million for the next six years. He also lost half of last season to a performance-enhancing drugs suspension. Plus, he's 35 years old. The reason he's available, and indeed the reason he almost has to be traded with Diaz, is because his contract is such a liability. We may find out the deal includes some money to help cover those salaries in 2021-2023, but right now we don't have any details.

But it's also worth noting that the Mets aren't giving up a tremendous amount here. They're giving up "two top prospects" but the three names prominently mentioned include 19-year-old outifleder Jarred Kelenic (a 6th overall draft pick last year), and pitchers Justin Dunn and/or David Peterson. MLB.com's Pipeline lists Kelenic and Dunn as Top 100 guys, but late-Top 100 guys. By comparion, Twins prospects like Royce Lewis and Alex Kiriloff are top 10. Instead, a comparable package might have been Brusdar Graterol and Trevor Larnach (or any of the Twins #4-#9 prospects).

Plus, the Mets are dumping a couple of questionable contracts themselves. Jay Bruce dealt with cascading injuries last year and will cost them $13M over the next two years. Swarzak had shoulder issues, lost his feel for the zone and is due $8M this year. Without including them, the package would've been even less.

Of course, Minneapolis is not New York City, so to really make the deal a reality, they would've also needed to find something to entice Cano to waive his no-trade clause. Throwing additional money at a bad contract that is going to run until a guy is 41 doesn't seem wise. It certainly doesn't seem like The Twins Way®. But if the only thing standing between getting the deal done and it not getting done is a little more cash, maybe a $5M bonus next year sweetens the pot? This is the year that they have the money, right?

It's a moot point, obviously. Mostly this deal intrigued me because I've been advocating a frugal approach on a middle infielder, but immediately pivoted into full-blow "WANT" mode when I saw the players available. But I'd be interested in what the community thinks. What kind of creative would have made sense for the Twins?

  • nclahammer and Aerodeliria like this

  • Share:
  • submit to reddit
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

66 Comments

Photo
mickeymental
Nov 30 2018 10:50 AM

twins would be better off talking joe mauer outa retirement. which isn't a very good idea, either.

Cano? Nothing. Bad seed.

    • Doctor Wu likes this

 

I would take the reliever- but not the Cano baggage. 

Sure, but the reliever on his own probably costs Kirilloff or Lewis. Cano+Diaz costs maybe Nick Gordon.

My two cents about a hypothetical Cano-Diaz trade.

 

Cano+Diaz is roughly value neutral. Diaz's surplus value basically cancels Cano's underwater deal.

I'd ask for $45M from the Mariners to offset some of Cano's salary, but I'd specificly require it to be spread across years 2021-2023. So Cano's contract essentially would become:

2-yr, $48M deal

3-yr, $27M deal

In return, I'd send Nick Gordon and one of Meija, Stewart, Gonsalves, Thorpe.

    • Mike Sixel likes this

 

Sure, but the reliever on his own probably costs Kirilloff or Lewis. Cano+Diaz costs maybe Nick Gordon.

I understand, but I would trade potential before being stuck with obvious and expensive regression in Cano.

I just want to point out that, per Bleacher Report, the Mariners have the worst farm system:

https://bleacherrepo...018-milb-season

So, if their fire sale continues, the Twins would be a good partner.
    • nicksaviking likes this
Photo
ChrisKnutson
Nov 30 2018 03:41 PM
Still have a hard time believing that a 1-2 inning guy like Diaz (and Cano’s contract) is worth any of Kirilloff, Graterol, Lewis, or Romero. Hypothetically, my highest offer to Dipoto would’ve been Gonsalves, Arraez, Celestino, and Duran. And depending on how the talks are progressing, I might make Javier, Gordon, and Enlow available too.
    • mikelink45 likes this

Well, an aging first-baseman/DH who costs 24M and OPS+'s 115 (realistic expectation for Cano in 2019) is better than what we've had. And I'd love to have Diaz...so, I would have liked a shot at doing that deal. I would have given up about what the Mets did. Which is not much. (I assume, once named, the prospects will be of the Thorpe/Gordon/Gonsalves/Stewart/Rooker ilk...if not, I think they gave up more than they needed to.)

 

Coming off an 89-win season, the Mariners part ways with one of their best young players...for the sole purpose of getting out from under a long-term contract.Not a great look for the game.

    • Vanimal46 likes this

Here is the roto projection for Cano in 2019 - and remember he will be going down from here on.  http://rotoprofessor...seball/?p=34410

Not sure what a Twins package would’ve looked like. I do believe they could’ve sent lesser prospects than what the Mets did, with Twins not needing to send back a bad contract like Bruce or Swarzy. But here it goes; Kepler + Reed + Gordon + Stewart.
Cave makes Kepler expendable, Reed = Swarzy , Arraez > Gordon, and Stewart = meh.

 

The Twins absolutely should stay away from players with talent and big salaries and pin their hope on prospects, that way the fans always have hope for future.

Being against silly deals for guys like Cano is as dumb as hoping every prospect pans out.You are playing both ends against the middle.

 

It is stunning how many of these threads have surfaced lately...

Bumgarner, Cano, Grienke???

It almost feels like people want big names just to say we got a big name

Photo
Winston Smith
Nov 30 2018 06:10 PM

 

Being against silly deals for guys like Cano is as dumb as hoping every prospect pans out.You are playing both ends against the middle.

 

It is stunning how many of these threads have surfaced lately...

Bumgarner, Cano, Grienke???

It almost feels like people want big names just to say we got a big name

I'm old enough to remember the Sears Christmas catalog. When it came it was I want that and that and that.... 

Photo
ashburyjohn
Nov 30 2018 06:12 PM

You can never fail when your goal is always three years from today.


You can never fail when your goal is always three years from today.


You said that three years ago, too.

    • USAFChief, Sconnie and tvagle like this

You said that three years ago, too.


To the minute, apparently.

Consistency....the hobgoblin of small minds.
    • ashburyjohn, Puckett34, Sconnie and 1 other like this
Photo
ashburyjohn
Nov 30 2018 07:06 PM

To the minute, apparently.

I worked hard to achieve that.

 

So, yes, about hobgoblins.

    • USAFChief likes this
The fact that the Mets are all hot and heavy for this tells me that it’s a terrible deal so hard pass
Photo
108Stitches
Dec 01 2018 12:51 AM
Cano has always struck me as lazy and non caring; Someone with immense talent but cares no further than his own interests. I’d trade no one for him.
    • djvang likes this

Zero interest in any trade that involves Cano. He's an over-the-hill and overrated "all star," and now one with questionable baggage. I hope the Twins aren't even thinking about trades like that, even if it brings us another phenom closer.

    • djvang likes this
Photo
ashburyjohn
Dec 01 2018 08:17 AM

Cano has always struck me as lazy and non caring; Someone with immense talent but cares no further than his own interests.

He's an above average offensive player and he plays well at an up the middle position on defense. Regardless of talent, how can someone be lazy and do that?

 

The PED suspension gives one pause. But PEDs do little unless the athlete is willing to work hard.

 

Using PEDs could indicate a certain degree of caring, albeit misguided, rather than non-caring.

 

As for his own interests, those coincide with his team's interests where it comes to results - what other interests are you implying? What harm to the team are you implying?

 

Age, and length/magnitude of remaining contract, are the big negatives. Innuendo is not needed.

Photo
Carole Keller
Dec 01 2018 09:33 AM

 

I love how Carole and nick liked my post as I completely changed it......

Thanks for alerting me ... I took my like away.

 

He's an above average offensive player and he plays well at an up the middle position on defense. Regardless of talent, how can someone be lazy and do that?

 

Moreover, how can he be called lazy when he had played in over 150 games per season for 11 straight years up until his suspension last year?

 

That said, a deal for Cano would be utterly insane.If we got him I might stop watching baseball.Can't stand him.

Photo
Aerodeliria
Dec 01 2018 09:47 AM
I wouldn't give up a ballpark frank for Cano. There is a reason to juice at 35. I wonder what their fans think.
I assume all the anti juicers want Polanco gone?
    • Carole Keller, cmoss84 and tvagle like this
Photo
Aerodeliria
Dec 01 2018 10:02 AM
I went over to the Mets blogosphere. The consensus seems to be that they hashed it.

Here is one such post:

Kelenic and Dunn are two top 100 prospects. I think that is roughly what Diaz is worth. Maybe slightly more, but not McNeil more (as I said elsewhere I don’t think I’d do Diaz for McNeil straight up).

I also think Cano would probably get 5 years 50-60 million on the open market (although a lot of reporters have been speculating ~30 million). That is 60-70 million in negative value. I think Bruce and Swarzak are probably ~25 million under water. So, if we get Cano and Diaz for Kelenic, Dunn, Bruce, Swarzak and Gerson (which I think is what is being reported) and they chip in ~40 million I think that is a fair deal.

But, just because it is fair value doesn’t mean it makes sense for the Mets to do. We are giving up a lot of future talent for an elite RP when the market for good RP is flooded and RP are very volatile. We are also buying high on Diaz, he will most likely never put up a season like the one he just did. I think full assessment of the deal needs to wait until we see the $$ and what other moves they make. If they then go out and sigh Miller, Ottavino and Grandal + I can maybe get behind it. Although, I also know some people are very high on Kelenic as a prospect.
    • PseudoSABR likes this
Photo
ashburyjohn
Dec 01 2018 10:19 AM

I assume all the anti juicers want Polanco gone?

Moderator's Note: While I doubt it's your intent, let's (all collectively) not turn this into another "PEDs: Pro Or Con" thread, nor draw lines putting every poster in either one camp or the other. Cano was suspended for violating the league's drug policy*, and that may or may not be a factor in whether one would wish to acquire him. But let's not expand it beyond Cano.

 

* As a point of information, he was suspended for use of a diuretic that is banned because it can mask PED use. He denied PED use, admitting only to the banned diuretic which he ascribed to a misunderstanding. OTOH people in the industry have been quoted as lacking in surprise he ran afoul of the rules.


Similar Articles


by Cody Christie , 05 Mar 2018
Photo


by Seth Stohs , 12 Oct 2017
Photo


by Seth Stohs , 11 Nov 2016
Photo