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Keith Law's Top 100

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 12:28 AM
You obviously need an Insider account to view the full list with his scouting notes, but Law put out his Top 100 today:   http://ins...
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Article: The Best 25 GMs in History: #11 Billy Beane

MLB Baseball Yesterday, 10:08 PM
This post is part of a series in which Mark Armour and I count down the 25 best GMs in history, cross-posting from our blog. For an expla...
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Miller: Vargas has everyone with Twins smiling

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 07:52 PM
Phil Miller has a tremendous article on Twins DH Kennys Vargas in the Star Tribune. I know that Miller had a one-on-one interview with Va...
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Article: Sizing Up The Competition: Kansas City Royals

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 07:51 PM
I watched it all unfold, but I still have a hard time comprehending it. It feels weird -- almost oxymoronic -- to utter the phrase "Ameri...
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Article: Twins Bite-Sized History: A Rocky Start

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 07:42 PM
The Minnesota Twins first home baseball game was played on April 21st, 1961, but that 5-3 loss was the tip of a large and rocky iceberg....
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We Lost Jeff Francis! (Yawn.)

I saw several tweets yesterday bemoaning the fact that the Twins didn't get Jeff Francis considering he signed a minor league deal with the Reds. I've certainly cast a skeptical eye towards the Twins aggressive stance early in this offseason, especially in the bullpen. But the Francis signing, IMHO, points out the risk/reward of waiting out the musical chairs game that is the free agent market:

Attached Image: 1804757-bin.jpg Reward - when the music stops, there can be an awful lot of players anxious to take a seat in your remaining chair
Risk - all of those players might kinda suck.

(This is not Jeff Francis. But it might be soon.)==>

When I look at Francis, I wonder why anyone would bemoan missing out on him. MLB GMs seem to agree - he just signed a minor league deal with a team in which there is no guarantee of a rotation spot. All by itself, that's revealing. But there is plenty of other evidence:

1. His fastball lost a couple of mph and tops out at about 84 according to rotowire.com
2. His k rate was down in the mid 4s last year.
3. He was hit like a pinata at a ADHD kids birthday party last year.

I expect that last point is why so many analysts kind of like him - it's almost unfathomable that a guy can give up 220+ hits in 180 innings without some bad luck being involved. That may be true, but there is another explanation - a pitcher can just kinda suck. Those guys get weeded out in a hurry and thus don't impact Voros McCracken's correlation coefficient much, but there is no question they exist. I suspect yesterday's deal reflects MLB's organic weeding process more than it reflects the Twins cluelessness.


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