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Article: Game Thread: Twins@Mariners 5/25 9:10PM

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Interesting article about Buxton

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:53 AM
I enjoyed the article linked below about Buxton. As you can see, the Twins and lots of other folks seem to think that he could be a hall...
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Article: Twins Daily Roundtable: Top Prospect Timelines

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 09:52 AM
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Hanley Ramirez DFA'd

Other Baseball Today, 09:48 AM
Red Sox DFA'd Hanley, Thoughts?   https://www.mlb.com/...ent/c-278245918
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Article: Did Minnesota Just Summon the Ghost of Christmas...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 09:54 AM
In the Charles Dickens classic, A Christmas Carol, Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by three ghosts.The last of these phantoms, the Ghost of C...
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Twins To Sign Lance Lynn

The Twins offseason puzzle is now complete. Jon Heyman reported that the Twins were closing in on a deal for free agent starting pitcher Lance Lynn. That report was confirmed by Jon Morosi, who added it's a one-year pact worth $12 million. Phil Miller of the Star Tribune was first to report that the Twins have released Anibal Sanchez to make room on the 40-man roster.
Lynn, 30, was considered one of the four best starting pitchers on the free agent market. After missing the 2016 season due to Tommy John surgery, the right-hander bounced back strong in 2017 with the St. Louis Cardinals to post a 3.43 ERA over 186.1 IP. He is considered a reliable middle-of-the-rotation arm, though it’s worth noting that his ERA last year would have ranked second on the Twins staff.

He is part of a trio of free agent starting pitchers that have been victimized by an historically slow free agent market, as estimates last October predicted he would likely get a deal as high as $60M over four years. Just last week it was reported that he turned down a two-year deal from the Twins for $20 million. The one-year, $12 million deal is likely a compromise. It allows Lynn to explore the free agent market next year and gets the Twins a solid starter at a reasonable rate with no long-term commitment.

A lot has changed over the course of this offseason, but you'd still be hard pressed to paint this deal as anything other than an incredible bargain for the Twins. When it was announced Ervin Santana would miss the beginning of the year due to an injured finger, it would have been easy for Derek Falvey and the rest of the front office to panic and overpay the first free agent starting pitcher they could get to sign on the dotted line.

Instead, they signed veteran Anibal Sanchez to a low-risk deal (again, he has now been released) and traded from a position of depth to acquire Jake Odorizzi. Those moves afforded the front office the ability to take a hard stance on the rest of the free agent market, waiting for a good deal to land in their laps.

Lynn is not completely without concerns. His strikeout rate was down (7.4 K/9) and his walk rate up (3.8 K/9). He limped to the finish line last year with a 9.20 ERA over his last four starts. He also had the lowest BABIP among all qualified pitchers at .244, which is a far cry from his career mark of .297. Furthermore, he had by far the worst strikeout-to-walk ratio (1.96) of his career, which has been entirely in the National League.

While there are certainly some red flags, it's important to remember that was Lynn's first season back from Tommy John surgery. Also, among the 144 pitchers who logged at least 500 innings from 2011-16, Lynn ranked 21st in FIP (3.36). That's a great track record upon which to rely when he is completely recovered.

Lynn most likely joins the Twins starting rotation plans immediately. That looks to be Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Lynn, as the tentative plan is for a four-man rotation at the beginning of the season, with a fifth starter only necessary a handful of times before mid-May. The Twins best pitcher last year, Ervin Santana, will likely return late April or early May to take the permanent fifth spot.

It remains to be seen how prepared Lynn will be to join the Twins on Opening Day. He reportedly has been working out in Jupiter, presumably building his pitch count. Most Twins pitchers are at the 60 pitch mark as of today, leaving about three more starts to get them to the 90-100 pitch mark. Depending on where Lynn is in his routine, he could begin the year with a few shorter than usual outings.

Since Lynn had the qualifying offer attached to him, the Twins will forfeit a draft pick. MLB Pipeline is reporting that'll be the No. 95 overall pick in the draft.

The signing puts the Twins payroll near $130 million for the year, up about $25 million from last year and the highest payroll in team history. Here are the details:

Attached Image: Payroll after Lynn.PNG

Here's a live stream on Twitter, if you're interested. I talked for 18 minutes, getting into some details about Lynn's aggressive TJ rehab schedule and usage by the Cardinals in 2017, as well as the rotation and 40-man roster fallout.

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258 Comments

 

I don't know anything, but here is what is likely:

 

ESan is retired in 2 years, or not that good.

Gibson is gone.

About 1/3 of the upper minors' starters turn out to be really good

Odorizzi is gone

Our Yankee pitcher is gone

 

That leaves some holes in the rotation, since a team needs 8-10 starters every year, not five.

 

It's been a very good off season. Other than signing Darvish, it is hard to see how it could be better. But, for years people have told me you can't successfully fill multiple holes in free agency. Now that I'm agreeing, I'm somehow wrong, or hating, or something.

 

I've been 100% clear. It's been a good off season. 

 

I don't think I have said that you are hating. I think you are making an issue out of something that is an inevitable issue for all teams. Almost every team needs to add a starter during two consecutive offseasons. It is far better to have short term contracts for good but not great players and aside from Darvish those were the players available.

 

And the Twins are very much in a position to add a near elite starter if one becomes available because they don't have long term commitments in the rotation and elsewhere. These are good things.

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Nine of twelve
Mar 13 2018 11:15 AM
IP: 1. ERA: 0.00. K/9: 18.
    • GP830 likes this
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ashburyjohn
Mar 13 2018 11:41 AM

IP: 1. ERA: 0.00. K/9: 18.

Now that's a trend!

    • nicksaviking and Nine of twelve like this

Lance Lynn:Greatest Twins pitcher of this decade, or greatest all time?

 

 

 

    • ashburyjohn, wagwan, Twins33 and 3 others like this

Lance Lynn: Greatest Twins pitcher of this decade, or greatest all time?


Yes.
    • ashburyjohn, USAFChief, Twins33 and 2 others like this

He didn't take very long to shake off the rust...Tillman on the other hand...

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mickeymental
Mar 13 2018 12:36 PM

 

Lance Lynn:Greatest Twins pitcher of this decade, or greatest all time?

 


Attached Thumbnails

  • Attached Image: lancelot link.jpg
    • ashburyjohn and USAFChief like this
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ashburyjohn
Mar 13 2018 12:39 PM

Lance Lynn:Greatest Twins pitcher of this decade, or greatest all time?

Greatest pitcher of all time? Or greatest human being of all time?
 

(Yes.)

I said it before and I will say it again ... I think Lynn was probably the best free agent pitcher this year.Sorry, Darvish. If I were in charge, Lynn would have been my #1 target.

 

It's a minor sticking point that he is only signed for one year because if my opinion is proven true, the Twins won't be able to afford him next year. Lynn will go off and be Ervin Santana II elsewhere. But hey, we had Kenny Rogers for one good year too, right?

I said it before and I will say it again ... I think Lynn was probably the best free agent pitcher this year. Sorry, Darvish. If I were in charge, Lynn would have been my #1 target.

It's a minor sticking point that he is only signed for one year because if my opinion is proven true, the Twins won't be able to afford him next year. Lynn will go off and be Ervin Santana II elsewhere. But hey, we had Kenny Rogers for one good year too, right?


The Twins have upwards of $80 million coming off the books after this season.
They can afford Lynn, if he's good enough that they want him back.

 

Greatest pitcher of all time? Or greatest human being of all time?
 

(Yes.)

 

A preemptive Chief-ing of one's own post is poor form, it takes the fun away from the next guy.

    • Carole Keller likes this

A preemptive Chief-ing of one's own post is poor form, it takes the fun away from the next guy.


Concur.
    • snepp likes this
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ashburyjohn
Mar 15 2018 07:24 AM

A preemptive Chief-ing of one's own post is poor form, it takes the fun away from the next guy.

Zero-sum game, then? I win! :)

    • Mike Sixel and snepp like this
Wonder if Lance is pissed now that Cobb signed 4 years 56 million?
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yarnivek1972
Mar 20 2018 06:46 PM

I said it before and I will say it again ... I think Lynn was probably the best free agent pitcher this year. Sorry, Darvish. If I were in charge, Lynn would have been my #1 target.

It's a minor sticking point that he is only signed for one year because if my opinion is proven true, the Twins won't be able to afford him next year. Lynn will go off and be Ervin Santana II elsewhere. But hey, we had Kenny Rogers for one good year too, right?


It’s worth noting that the Twins have an exclusive 7 month or so negotiating period with him.
    • Doomtints likes this

Wonder if Lance is pissed now that Cobb signed 4 years 56 million?


Would you prefer Lynn 4/56 or 1/12?
I bet it’s a mixed bag on here

I think Lynn wanted to bet on himself but I would think two weeks ago 4/56 would’ve been pretty enticing.
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Carole Keller
Mar 20 2018 09:06 PM

Wonder if Lance is pissed now that Cobb signed 4 years 56 million?


If he pitches really well this year, probably not. If he doesn’t, well, yeah maybe. In other words, if he’s pissed now, he may not be next year.
    • HitInAPinch likes this

 

Would you prefer Lynn 4/56 or 1/12?
I bet it’s a mixed bag on here

I think Lynn wanted to bet on himself but I would think two weeks ago 4/56 would’ve been pretty enticing.

Definitely 1/12 for me. 2/30 would have been best but I am not entirely trusting of Lynn and 4/56 can quickly become a Nolasco/Hughes situation. Perhaps it becomes an Ervin situation but 4 years is a risky contract for Lynn.

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diehardtwinsfan
Mar 21 2018 05:58 AM

I'd probably prefer Lynn at 1/12 than 4/56. I know I'd prefer Lynn at 4/56 than Cobb at 4/56... 

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jorgenswest
Mar 21 2018 05:02 PM

Definitely 1/12 for me. 2/30 would have been best but I am not entirely trusting of Lynn and 4/56 can quickly become a Nolasco/Hughes situation. Perhaps it becomes an Ervin situation but 4 years is a risky contract for Lynn.


The Ervin situation is good relative to Nolasco/Hughes but it could turn out to be 2 good years out of 4.
Out of 3.5

We didn’t have to pay him that first half year :)
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yarnivek1972
Mar 21 2018 08:35 PM

Out of 3.5

We didn’t have to pay him that first half year :)


Are you certain that is how that works? I think I heard that fines are given to MLB Charities programs. Could this be the same scenario?

 

Out of 3.5

We didn’t have to pay him that first half year :)

The player doesn't receive the money but I think it is still paid (and donated?).

This certainly could be a 2.5 good years out of 4 situtation. I am not optimistic about Ervin after the surgery combined with his age.

I believe that's how fines work, but not suspensions. 

    • spycake likes this

 

Are you certain that is how that works? I think I heard that fines are given to MLB Charities programs. Could this be the same scenario?

 

SportTrac looks to consider it not part of payroll:

 

http://www.spotrac.c...s/payroll/2015/


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