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Minor Leaguers to get a Raise

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 05:39 PM
https://apnews.com/1...a2641244e0c00fd     Players at rookie and short-season levels will see their minimum weekly pay raised...
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2019 2020 (non-Twins) off season

Other Baseball Today, 05:31 PM
My first prediction is that WA signs their two big possible FAs to extensions.   My next is that Cole goes to LAA.   The White...
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KMSP: From Uber to starting in the playoffs

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 04:27 PM
https://www.fox9.com...f7KmB0wC7co-Q8k   Jim Rich of KMSP got an 'uber' ride from Randy Dobnak and they talked about his remarkable...
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Mookie Betts & David Price on the Move!

Other Baseball Today, 03:28 PM
Holy cow, a blockbuster trade!
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Astros, Bauer, Pohlad's, Twins, Future of MLB

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 02:59 PM
BIG title right? But I think MLB is sitting at a unique precipice right now, and we, as baseball fans, should be concerned about everythi...
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Twins Game Recap (8/8): Gibson Struggles, Late-Inning Rallies Fall Short

The Cleveland Indians defeated the Minnesota Twins 7-5 on Thursday. The win brought Cleveland within one game of the Twins with three games left to play in this series, and a grand total of nine head-to-head matchups to come.
Image courtesy of FanGraphs
Box Score
Gibson: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 6 BB, 2 K, 49% strikes (42 of 85 pitches)
Bullpen: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Home Runs: None
Multi-Hit Games: Luis Arraez (2-for-3, BB)

Bottom 3 WPA: Eddie Rosario -.314, Kyle Gibson -.257, C.J. Cron -.146

Mike Clevinger mostly stymied the best offense in baseball on Thursday, going seven innings and striking out nine en route to his seventh win. Clevinger threw 117 pitches and made them all count, allowing just three hits. Two blemishes came in the fourth, as the Twins struck on RBI singles from Luis Arraez and Marwin Gonzalez.

The Indians offense lifted Clevinger as Yasiel Puig tripled and scored in the second off Kyle Gibson. Gibson pitched 4 1/3 innings and allowed five runs while walking six. Zach Littell relieved Gibson in the fifth and gave up a two-run double to Jose Ramirez. Ramirez continued his smoking hot second half, driving in three runs on the evening.


Adam Cimber pitched the eighth inning for Cleveland and surrendered two hits and a walk as Jorge Polanco doubled in Ehire Adrianza to narrow the deficit to three. Cimber was pulled for left-hander Oscar Perez and Eddie Rosario grounded into a fielder’s choice, scoring Max Kepler to bring the Twins within two.

Miguel Sano doubled in Rosario on a full count to strike to within one. Marwin Gonzalez popped out to center to end the inning.

Tyler Naquin blasted a solo homer off Trevor May in the ninth for an insurance run. In the bottom half, Eddie Rosario popped out to right with bases loaded for the finishing touch. Minnesota native Brad Hand earned his 29th save. Devin Smeltzer and Shane Bieber will face off tomorrow night.

Postgame With Baldelli



Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet
Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.


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99 Comments

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yarnivek1972
Aug 09 2019 09:44 AM
That’s a pretty big gamble. What if he struggles so badly you have to send him down? Then you do burn that option.
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Battle ur tail off
Aug 09 2019 09:51 AM

Honestly, burn it. Who cares. If he is as good as advertised, you won't need all of those option years because he will be up and playing with the big club. 

 

That said, if he comes up and struggles mightily and has to be sent back down, I think you lose a little of his trade value if you are thinking there is any chance you move him this offseason. 

 

There is also the confidence thing. He might not be ready and by exposing him and possibly him failing, you might do more harm than good to the kid's development. 

Honestly, burn it. Who cares. If he is as good as advertised, you won't need all of those option years because he will be up and playing with the big club.

That said, if he comes up and struggles mightily and has to be sent back down, I think you lose a little of his trade value if you are thinking there is any chance you move him this offseason.

There is also the confidence thing. He might not be ready and by exposing him and possibly him failing, you might do more harm than good to the kid's development.


Actually, burning options is a big deal when it comes to prospects you think will be stars. You don't want to be stuck in the future if he's struggling as a 24 year old and unable to send him to AAA.

When it comes to marginal prospects like relievers, then I agree. Burn em...
    • Tom Froemming likes this

 

Really enjoyed the video. A 13th pitcher makes the most practical sense, but I love the idea of a Kirilloff call-up.

 

I think the Twins could reasonably add him to the 25 man roster to avoid burning an option, and make Cave the odd man out. I also think the way Rocco juggles his lineup and provides frequent rest would mean if Kirilloff was on the opening day roster next season he would get frequent at bats.

 

The other reason I would love a Kirilloff call-up would be the energy/excitement he would bring to the club house, especially if he has an immediate impact on the field. The Twins have looked a little lifeless as of late. Call up a big time prospect and inject a little life into everyone!

 

For all the criticism the FO got during the trade deadline, this is an aggressive roster move they could make that could have significant positive impact, with virtually no downside.

Virtually no downside?

 

Alex Kirilloff at AA

Last 7 days: .200/.238/.350, .588 OPS

Last 28 days: .263/.278/.347, .626 OPS

Last 90 days: .268/.320/.395, .715 OPS

 

At Fangraphs, Steamer projects him at 89 wRC+, virtually the same as Cave's 86.

 

And it's not just a matter of potentially burning an option with Kirilloff in 2019 -- he doesn't have to be protected from Rule 5 until after the 2020 season. Obviously if he's ready we will call him up before then -- but he hardly looks ready right now. Taking that gamble now will leave you with one less 40-man roster spot for the rest of this season and offseason. (And even if you can hide him on the expanded September rosters in 2019 to avoid burning an option this year, you'd almost certainly burn an unnecessary option on him for 2020, although his readiness and the 40-man spot are more important considerations.)

    • Tom Froemming likes this

1.73 ERA in 26 innings vs CWS and Baltimore, if the Twins face one of those teams in the playoffs Gibson will be ready to go.

4.88 ERA vs everyone else.


Do Cruz's numbers against bad teams not count too? What do you think the league ERA is if you take out the bad hitting teams from every pitcher?
    • gunnarthor, Hosken Bombo Disco and Minny505 like this

 

Actually, burning options is a big deal when it comes to prospects you think will be stars. You don't want to be stuck in the future if he's struggling as a 24 year old and unable to send him to AAA.

When it comes to marginal prospects like relievers, then I agree. Burn em...

Actually, future stars are less likely to need the option than more marginal guys. Although it's still nice to have, in case you need it.

 

But see my post above -- burning an option isn't even the 1st or 2nd most important consideration with a potential Kirilloff call-up right now.

 

Actually, burning options is a big deal when it comes to prospects you think will be stars. You don't want to be stuck in the future if he's struggling as a 24 year old and unable to send him to AAA.

When it comes to marginal prospects like relievers, then I agree. Burn em...

 

There were a large group of posters who ripped the front office a new one for burning Jorge's option in 2014, and I think I was probably one of them.There were people in 2017 who suggested DFA'ing him because he was struggling and they couldn't send him down.Yes, he turned out fine, but was it worth 20 combined plate appearances he got in the bigs in 2014 and 2015?It's extremely risky, especially for an offense who still has a ton of explosion even without Cruz and Buck in the lineup.  

 

I get the excitement of someone new and fresh and highly regarded, but he's 21 hitting .269/.330/.391 in AA.It just seems like a wasted option, much like they did with Jorge in 2014 if they call him up right now.

Polanco was already required to be on the 40-man roster in 2014 to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, which is why he got called up when we needed an infielder for a few days. He was already burning an option regardless of whether we called him up that year or not.

 

It would make far less sense to add Kirilloff to the 40-man roster now, unnecessarily, even before considering whether he might burn an option.

 

Virtually no downside?

 

Alex Kirilloff at AA

Last 7 days: .200/.238/.350, .588 OPS

Last 28 days: .263/.278/.347, .626 OPS

Last 90 days: .268/.320/.395, .715 OPS

 

At Fangraphs, Steamer projects him at 89 wRC+, virtually the same as Cave's 86.

 

And it's not just a matter of potentially burning an option with Kirilloff in 2019 -- he doesn't have to be protected from Rule 5 until after the 2020 season. Obviously if he's ready we will call him up before then -- but he hardly looks ready right now. Taking that gamble now will leave you with one less 40-man roster spot for the rest of this season and offseason. (And even if you can hide him on the expanded September rosters in 2019 to avoid burning an option this year, you'd almost certainly burn an unnecessary option on him for 2020, although his readiness and the 40-man spot are more important considerations.)

I look at it as him taking Cave's 40-man spot after the season.

 

I am willing to take the risk of burning an option for the potential reward Kirilloff could provide. If he isn't going to be ready to contribute to the Twins prior to next September, they why didn't the Twins shop him more aggressively during the trade deadline?

 

Maybe this is why I don't have a job in the Twins front office, but I would be fairly aggressive moving Kirilloff up and taking the risks involved.

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Tom Froemming
Aug 09 2019 10:10 AM

 

Agree with the boring move of the 13th pitcher for now. Best stretch of offense was back in the late spring when Cruz was out. We have multiple options at DH. Won't happen now, but I look for Graterol soon if he keeps throwing like this. Good on Falvey for trying anyone and everyone. Balazovic can come up right behind him as far as I'm concerned. We have starting pitching problems and we need to solve that one quick. 

It is starting to feel like we're going to see Graterol in some role on this team before the end of the year. He needs to be added to the 40-man at the end of the year anyway. Cody recently wrote about him here, for anybody who may have missed it.

 

I think the jump from High-A to the upper levels of the minors is huge, especially for a pitcher, considering how friendly an environment the Florida State League is. Balazovic is having an excellent year, but I don't think he's a realistic option.

 

If you're looking for new arms to call upon who we haven't seen up with the Twins yet, maybe Edwar Colina could be that guy? Among the guys we have seen, maybe it's time to give Sean Poppen more of a look, as opposed to just using him for bullpen length in the event of an emergency. But that's just my thoughts, I dunno.

    • In My La-Z-boy likes this

 

There were a large group of posters who ripped the front office a new one for burning Jorge's option in 2014, and I think I was probably one of them.

To add to my previous post:

 

The front office did make a roster error with Polanco, but it was back in 2010. They gave him too many active days in rookie league ball so he was Rule 5 eligible a year sooner than he should have been. Thus, he was already taking a 40-man roster spot and burning an option year in 2014, before we even called him up.

    • SwainZag, JW24, Tom Froemming and 1 other like this

 

Polanco was already required to be on the 40-man roster in 2014 to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, which is why he got called up when we needed an infielder for a few days. He was already burning an option regardless of whether we called him up that year or not.

 

It would make far less sense to add Kirilloff to the 40-man roster now, unnecessarily, even before considering whether he might burn an option.

 

That would have been for 2015 right?Didn't they waste a year by calling him up in 2014, one they could have saved or am I off on that?If not that makes sense, but yeah completely on Kirilloff.If he was ripping the cover off the ball it would be a different story.

 

Edit: You answered my question in above post about service time.  

 

1.73 ERA in 26 innings vs CWS and Baltimore, if the Twins face one of those teams in the playoffs Gibson will be ready to go. 

 

4.88 ERA vs everyone else. 

I really hate these type of comparisons. If you're going to discount his best 26 innings, shouldn't you also discount his worst innings? 

    • Mike Sixel likes this

 

I really hate these type of comparisons. If you're going to discount his best 26 innings, shouldn't you also discount his worst innings? 

 

Those were not his 26 best innings

 

And the theme many have picked up on with Gibson this year is when the team needs a big start from him he craps the bed. See both starts vs Cleveland since All Star break

 

Vs Playoff teams (or playoff hopefuls); NYM, NYY, TBR, BOS, OAK, CLE; 

 

10 starts, 53 innings, 39 runs, 31 earned runs.5.07 ERA with a whopping 8 unearned runs. 4 of the 10 games didn't get out of the 5th inning. 

Is that good? Did you compare other starters to those same teams to show where Gibby stands?

 

I look at it as him taking Cave's 40-man spot after the season.

 

I am willing to take the risk of burning an option for the potential reward Kirilloff could provide. If he isn't going to be ready to contribute to the Twins prior to next September, they why didn't the Twins shop him more aggressively during the trade deadline?

 

Maybe this is why I don't have a job in the Twins front office, but I would be fairly aggressive moving Kirilloff up and taking the risks involved.

Again, the risk is NOT just burning an option.

 

If you think that little of Cave, you can give his 40-man spot to Jax, or Blankenhorn, or some other prospect who needs it this offseason. By unnecessarily giving it to Kirilloff, you're risking losing one of those guys, not just Cave. (Or you're risking not having room to take a flier on the next Kirby Yates, etc.)

 

I'm not saying you have to wait until September 2020 to promote Kirilloff -- I could see him coming into camp next spring fully healthy and in 2018 hitting form, and getting promoted after a few weeks (the Bryant rule) or in June after the super-2 date (like Buxton, etc.). But no sense trying to force it in August 2019, and risk losing other prospects (to say nothing of messing up Kirilloff's own development) when he is pretty clearly not ready at the moment.

    • SwainZag, JW24 and Tom Froemming like this
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Tom Froemming
Aug 09 2019 10:20 AM

 

Really enjoyed the video. A 13th pitcher makes the most practical sense, but I love the idea of a Kirilloff call-up.

 

I think the Twins could reasonably add him to the 25 man roster to avoid burning an option, and make Cave the odd man out. I also think the way Rocco juggles his lineup and provides frequent rest would mean if Kirilloff was on the opening day roster next season he would get frequent at bats.

 

The other reason I would love a Kirilloff call-up would be the energy/excitement he would bring to the club house, especially if he has an immediate impact on the field. The Twins have looked a little lifeless as of late. Call up a big time prospect and inject a little life into everyone!

 

For all the criticism the FO got during the trade deadline, this is an aggressive roster move they could make that could have significant positive impact, with virtually no downside.

Others have made good points on the options, which is why in the video I said the way that could make the most sense is if they could find away to carry Alex on the roster through the rest of August. Then rosters expand and you don't have to send him down/burn an option.

 

That seems to me like it'd be tough to pull off, but it's possible. It probably wouldn't be the best thing for Kirilloff's development, but I'm pretty comfortable with who he is, despite some largely uninspiring results this season. Basically, I don't think you would be hindering his development much by having him miss the final few weeks of the minor league season.

 

One last thing I want to add in regard to either a potential Graterol or Kirilloff move is at some point you have to do something. I can get behind the idea of building from within and trusting internal options. That's actually a lot of fun if you follow the minor league system. But if you're not going to be active in free agency, and you're not going to be active on the trade market, you have to do something somewhere.

 

At a certain point it does make some sense to push a prospect or two sooner than maybe you had originally intended to. Could end up being a disaster, but every once in a while you fall into a Luis Arraez situation. 

    • Riverbrian, JW24 and In My La-Z-boy like this

 

Agree with the boring move of the 13th pitcher for now. Best stretch of offense was back in the late spring when Cruz was out. We have multiple options at DH. Won't happen now, but I look for Graterol soon if he keeps throwing like this. Good on Falvey for trying anyone and everyone. Balazovic can come up right behind him as far as I'm concerned. We have starting pitching problems and we need to solve that one quick. 

 

 

If you're looking for new arms to call upon who we haven't seen up with the Twins yet, maybe Edwar Colina could be that guy? Among the guys we have seen, maybe it's time to give Sean Poppen more of a look, as opposed to just using him for bullpen length in the event of an emergency. But that's just my thoughts, I dunno.

 

Duran would be the next most obvious candidate, after Graterol. Both of them have to be added to the 40-man after the season anyway. Alcala is in the same boat, but he's been much, much shakier in performance this season.

 

Colina and Balazovic don't have to be added until after 2020. Obviously if we really think they're ready, we can and should add them sooner. But if we're hoping to get lucky, no sense in adding them quite yet.

    • In My La-Z-boy likes this

 

Again, the risk is NOT just burning an option.

 

If you think that little of Cave, you can give his 40-man spot to Jax, or Blankenhorn, or some other prospect who needs it this offseason. By unnecessarily giving it to Kirilloff, you're risking losing one of those guys, not just Cave. (Or you're risking not having room to take a flier on the next Kirby Yates, etc.)

 

I'm not saying you have to wait until September 2020 to promote Kirilloff -- I could see him coming into camp next spring fully healthy and in 2018 hitting form, and getting promoted after a few weeks (the Bryant rule) or in June after the super-2 date (like Buxton, etc.). But no sense trying to force it in August 2019, and risk losing other prospects (to say nothing of messing up Kirilloff's own development) when he is pretty clearly not ready at the moment.

I agree with everything you have said here, and the fact Kirilloff is not hitting well enough to merit a promotion is very valid.

 

For all the reasons you have listed, I do not think the Twins call him up. I would just rather see Kirilloff in the outfield the rest of this season than Cave as I think Kirilloff gives the Twins a better chance immediately to win the division. Personal preference/opinion.

I would be very happy if they had won the past three games, but I'm not surprised they lost them.

 

They'll try again tomorrow.

For all the criticism the FO got during the trade deadline, this is an aggressive roster move they could make that could have significant positive impact, with virtually no downside.

This would be a desperation move, more than just an aggressive one.

    • spycake and Minny505 like this
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the_brute_squad
Aug 09 2019 10:42 AM

 

This is the version of Gibby we have had of him most of this year, unlike last 1.25 years.  Has to nibble.  Not an extension candidate at 33 next year.

 

I know this is blasphemy but anyone else not understanding Rocco's obsession with protecting the bullpen?  Seems like lately he's leaving pitchers out way too long.  You have to hope your bullpen can help. I know I know bullpen not great, but this is the team we have or chose to have.

 

A little tired of the come from behind dramatics.  Don't mind a close game, just prefer not to be behind a ton and rely on the big bomb to bring us back.

 

let's hope we get it back.  Cleveland now can hit.

I agree with the no extension for Gibby. In my opinion this is a tryout and he's failing in the big games. Too bad big Mike Pineda is on the shelf because I think he'd be the best option right now.

Baldi is showing his trust in the pen as he's had the starters out to hang 3 games in a row. It seems like he's more willing to do that since Odo had his meltdown about getting taken out too early a few weeks ago.

It's obvious this staff doesn't match up against many of the better teams. If we don't get help from the minors - outside of Smeltzer - I don't see how the squad makes it anywhere past the first round of playoffs.

 

This would be a desperation move, more than just an aggressive one.

I think that depends on how well Kirilloff plays if he were to get called up.

 

Is that good? Did you compare other starters to those same teams to show where Gibby stands?

 

No, Gibson has not been good vs good teams. Did you really think 39 runs in 53 innings may have been good?

 

Berrios vs playoff hopefuls; 

 

10 starts, 62.2 innings, 24 earned runs. 3.45 ERA  

 

Odorrizzi vs playoff hopefuls; 

 

13 starts, 65.1 innings, 32 earned runs, 4.41 ERA

 

Pineda vs playoff hopefuls; 

 

9 starts, 47.2 innings, 22 earned runs, 4.15 ERA

 

 

I think that depends on how well Kirilloff plays if he were to get called up.

No, the move itself smacks of desperation. You judge a decision at the time, not after the results come in. Hoping that Kirilloff turns around a month of tepid numbers at AA into good major league numbers would mean our FO is much like a batter who is pressing. Anything can happen, but it doesn't make it a solid move.

    • USAFChief, Danchat, spycake and 1 other like this

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