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The #5 pitcher on the 1965 Twins

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 11:27 PM
Tim Flattery had a conversation with Dwight Siebler, who was the 5th start on the 1965 Twins World Series team (the Sandy Koufax series)....
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Take Landis Name off the MVP Award

Other Baseball Today, 08:31 PM
Barry Larkin, former MVP, has been calling for removing the Kenesaw Mountain Landis name from MVP awards.Personally, until I read the art...
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Twins Take to Target Field's Concourses

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:32 PM
Dan Hayes of The Athletic wrote an article about and included some pictures of how the Twins are trying to take advantage of Target Field...
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And then there is the case of the Blue Jays to consider

Other Baseball Today, 06:20 PM
https://www.sportsne...measures-place/ Here we are, theoretically two weeks away from Opening Day. The Blue Jays aren’t yet certain where...
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LG Twins Thread

Other Baseball Today, 06:32 PM
Baseball is coming back to ESPN. Tonight. Come tomorrow, there will be Twins baseball. Live and on the air. Since we are all, by some tra...
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Twins Game Recap (8/20): Cruz Leads Twins Offensive Explosion

Monday night was a bit of a come down to earth for the Minnesota Twins, who cruised their way to a four-game sweep against the Texas Rangers over the weekend. However, the Twins jumped right back on the gas pedal last night again, putting up 14 runs on 10 extra-base hits against the Chicago White Sox. In New York, the Mets took care of business, beating the Cleveland Indians by a score of 9 to 2, which helped the Twins extend their lead in the division back up to three games.
Image courtesy of FanGraphs
Box Score
Pineda: 7 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 79.5% strikes (70 of 88 pitches)
Home Runs: Kepler (34), Cruz (33), Polanco (19)
Multi-Hit Games: Kepler (2 for 5, 2B, HR), Cruz (4 for 5, 3 2B, HR), Rosario (2 for 5)
WPA of +0.1: Cruz .347, Kepler .176
WPA of -0.1: None

The pitchers were in control of this game in its early stages, as they both breezed through the first couple of innings, facing just one more batter than the minimum between the two pitchers. However, that narrative took a 180 in the third inning, when both teams found their bats. In the top of the third, Michael Pineda was one out away from another quick inning, leaving just a runner on first. That all changed when Tim Anderson roped a double down the first-base line that ricocheted off the side wall, and away from Jake Cave, allowing Yolmer Sanchez to score from first. Jose Abreu followed that up with another third-inning home run, putting the White Sox 3-0.

Mitch Garver led off the bottom of the third with a double into the right-center field gap, for the Twins first baserunner of the game. Garver advanced to third on a Marwin Gonzalez groundout, but was still standing there with two outs, after Jake Cave struck out. No worries though, as Max Kepler, who was back in the lineup after missing last night’s game as a result of the heat exhaustion he suffered over the weekend in Texas, came through with a two-out, two-run home run to cut the White Sox lead down to one.



After a strong showing in his return from the injured list last night, Nelson Cruz showed everyone that the ruptured tendon in his left wrist wasn’t going to slow him down, as he took Reynaldo Lopez deep to left field, to tie the game at three.



After tying the game up in the bottom of the fourth, Nelson Cruz gave the Twins their first lead of the game, just an inning later. A lead they would not look back from. The inning didn’t look like it was going to be anything much after Mitch Garver and Marwin Gonzalez both grounded out to leadoff the inning. Jake Cave then followed that up with an opposite field single, extending his modest hit streak to eight games. Max Kepler then nubbed the ball two feet in front of home plate, but the inning was kept alive when Jose Abreu inexplicably missed the catch on the throw to first. Jorge Polanco kept the inning going when he was hit by a pitch to load the bases for Nelson Cruz, who promptly delivered with a two-run double off the wall in right. On the very next pitch, Eddie Rosario followed that up with a base hit, bringing in both Polanco and Cruz to extend the Twins lead to four.

Tim Anderson led off the top of the sixth inning with a home run, which was the fourth earned run allowed by Michael Pineda on the night. That marks just the second start for Pineda since the beginning of May, when he has allowed more than three earned runs.

The Twins busted the game wide open with a seven-run inning in the bottom of the eighth. The inning was highlighted by two doubles from Nelson Cruz, a bases clearing double from C.J. Cron, RBI-doubles from both Miguel Sano and Max Kepler, and a two-run home run by Jorge Polanco.





Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Next Three Games
Wed vs CHW, 12:10 pm CT (Giolito-Odorizzi)
Fri vs DET, 7:10 pm CT (TBD-TBD)
Sat vs DET, 6:10 pm CT (TBD-TBD)

Last Game
Twins Game Recap (8/19): Twins Unable to Mount Comeback, Drop Series Opener 6-4

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87 Comments

Great job Tom.I think you're on to something there with the new content and leverage index.Appreciate all the hard work and time you bestow upon TD.   

    • Tom Froemming and Aerodeliria like this
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Cap'n Piranha
Aug 21 2019 10:30 AM

 

MVP is not about the future... We are talking about the MVP vote ...

 

If the MVP vote is based solely on current year production, Mike Trout is the clear and only choice.If he doesn't win it unanimously, people should have their voting privileges taken away.If it's based on current year value, which would include salary, arguments can be made Trout shouldn't be in the top 5.To illustrate this, think about if the Twins had signed Berrios to a 6 year, $150M deal before the season started, but Berrios had the exact same season.He's clearly less valuable in that scenario than in one where he's not extended, despite identical production.

 

If we're talking organizational value, Trout shouldn't even be on the ballot.Anthony Rendon has put up 5.2 WAR this year so far (8th among hitters).However, since he cost $18M this year, and is a free agent after this year, Juan Soto, Trea Turner, and Victor Robles all have far more value.

 

Think of it this way; who do you think would require more in prospect capital to acquire; Mike Trout or Ronald Acuna?If the answer is Acuna, that would seem to make it pretty obvious that Acuna is more valuable.

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yarnivek1972
Aug 21 2019 10:41 AM
Part of the rationale for not voting for players on non contending teams is that they get pitched to differently.

If the Angels are contending and another contender is playing them, they aren’t going to let Trout beat them, period. Pujols doesn’t offer sufficient protection anymore. Nor does Ohtani. So Trout would have a more difficult time putting up numbers than he is. As it is now, most teams would be of the opinion that they can beat the Angels no matter what Trout does because the rest of the team has been so bad. Their high water mark was 54-49, after taking two from the Dodgers in mid July. At that point they were still 12 games back and since then have been an abysmal 9-16. And that’s probably what the rest of their season looks like.
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puckstopper1
Aug 21 2019 10:53 AM

 

Yesterday was Tuesday, August 20.It was the 126th game of the year putting the Twins 78% of the way through the season.The Twins hit 3 home runs upping their record-breaking season total to 244 home runs.They are now only 24 home runs short of setting a new single-season MLB record.

 

The 2019 Twins are now 11th on the all-time "most home runs in a season for team" list.

 

Next on the list are the 1996 Mariners and the 2012 Yankees, both who hit 245.

    • MN_ExPat likes this
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MVP Nick Punto
Aug 21 2019 11:11 AM

I choose Nick Punto. Now just give me a few minutes while I frame the question.

Good. Choice. +67
    • USAFChief and 70charger like this

Jorge is so HUGE for this team when he is hitting. He went into a prolonged slump for most of the summer and in the last 11 games or so it finally, hopefully, looks like he has snapped out of it and is hitting like he was at the beginning of the season. More impressively, he hi that HR as a right handed hitter last night.


I think his last 2 HRs have been as a righty. Very good to see!
    • wabene likes this

Cruz is looking very much like David Ortiz did at age 39, let's hope he follows through with a similar age-40 season!

Ortiz put up .273/.360/.913 as a 39 year old with 37 doubles and 37 HR, and he followed that up with .315/.401/1.021 with a league-leading 48 doubles and 38 HR at age 40!

Cruz is currently at .296/.385/1.031 with 19 doubles and 32 HR...


He’s actually at .303/.390/1.057 with 22 2b and 33 HRs in 89 games/333 ABs.

Ortiz in his age 39/40 seasons was at 146/151 games and 528/537 ABs respectively. Now with that being said, health is a skill especially at older ages.

To put in perspective Cruz’s numbers with that many ABs are as follows:

.303/.390/1.057

99 runs -35 2B - 52 HRs - 127 RBI


Your point does stand. Very similar. Cruz has actually been better, especially during his age 39 season. I hope he makes a similar age 40 jump ;)
    • Jacks02 likes this

 

Part of the rationale for not voting for players on non contending teams is that they get pitched to differently.

If the Angels are contending and another contender is playing them, they aren’t going to let Trout beat them, period. Pujols doesn’t offer sufficient protection anymore. Nor does Ohtani. So Trout would have a more difficult time putting up numbers than he is. As it is now, most teams would be of the opinion that they can beat the Angels no matter what Trout does because the rest of the team has been so bad. Their high water mark was 54-49, after taking two from the Dodgers in mid July. At that point they were still 12 games back and since then have been an abysmal 9-16. And that’s probably what the rest of their season looks like.

Sorry.Not buying it.No team is going to say we can beat the Angels no matter what Trout does. They are going to say our odds of beating the Angels go up significantly if we pitch around Trout and make the others beat us.. At least the smart ones do.Twins should have pitched around Abreu this series. If they had they might have won 2 of 3 instead of losing. On the other hand, teams would have a tougher time pitching around Trout if he was surrounded by guys that can hit.He leads the major leagues in walks.That doesn't tell me they are going after him. The only reason to pitch to him ever is that when they don't walk him he makes outs 70% of the time.

 

You could argue that in a macro sense, Mike Trout is the least valuable player in baseball.The Angels are currently 63-66; subtract Trout's 8.4 WAR, and that drops to 55-74.In other words, Mike Trout single-handedly drags the Angels to mediocrity, ensuring they don't get access to the premier talent at the top of the draft, or the larger bonus pool needed to get talent in the second and third round.The Angels can't enter a full-scale rebuild, dumping veterans to buttress the farm system, and throwing their own prospects out to see who sticks.

 

Over the past 7 full seasons, the Angels are 584-550 (average of 83-79).Take out Mike Trout's 64.2 WAR, and they're now 520-614 (average of 74-88); to put that in perspective, over the same timeframe, the Twins have been 507-627 (average of 72-90).

 

Further, while there is no other player the Angels could get to replace Mike Trout, his large salary (along with Pujols and Upton), prevent the Angels from getting immediate help.Put another way, Kepler and Polanco have combined for 7.4 WAR this year (88% of Trout), but at 25% of the cost, leaving the Twins $26M free to play with.

 

Is Mike Trout the best player in baseball?Currently there is no doubt that he is, and perhaps the best ever.Is he the most valuable?At least in my opinion, no.

Ok, I concede. Lets call it the NIAMSOWRTTPCOEHHODOBRHVHIITCSOTAPFWTMRTTTSHNot In A Macro Economic Sense Or With Regard To The Player's Contract Or Effect He Has on Draft Order But Rather How Valuable He Is In The Current Season On The Actual Playing Field Without Too Much Regard To The Talent Surrounding Him awardOr MVP for short.

    • Brock Beauchamp and MN_ExPat like this
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Brock Beauchamp
Aug 21 2019 06:44 PM

 

Sorry.Not buying it.No team is going to say we can beat the Angels no matter what Trout does. They are going to say our odds of beating the Angels go up significantly if we pitch around Trout and make the others beat us.. At least the smart ones do.Twins should have pitched around Abreu this series. If they had they might have won 2 of 3 instead of losing. On the other hand, teams would have a tougher time pitching around Trout if he was surrounded by guys that can hit.He leads the major leagues in walks.That doesn't tell me they are going after him. The only reason to pitch to him ever is that when they don't walk him he makes outs 70% of the time.

Yep, look at Abreu. It's easier to pitch around a mediocre lineup with one superstar "greatest of all time" type of player in it than it is to pitch around a good lineup with that same amazing player anchoring it.

 

Imagine putting Trout between Kepler and Cruz or Gregorius and Judge.

 

The dude might OPS 1.400 on the year.

 

A sample photo of Mike Trout hitting second in the Twins lineup:

 

giphy.gif

    • MN_ExPat likes this
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Cap'n Piranha
Aug 22 2019 09:14 AM

 

Ok, I concede. Lets call it the NIAMSOWRTTPCOEHHODOBRHVHIITCSOTAPFWTMRTTTSHNot In A Macro Economic Sense Or With Regard To The Player's Contract Or Effect He Has on Draft Order But Rather How Valuable He Is In The Current Season On The Actual Playing Field Without Too Much Regard To The Talent Surrounding Him awardOr MVP for short.

 

Dude, we can debate multiple definitions at the same time.I've stated, explicitly and multiple times, that based solely on on-field production (which is the current criteria), Trout is the MVP, it's not close, and it should be unanimous.

 

If the MVP is restricted to the current year (which it should be), but pay is included (which it also should be), Trout is much less valuable, due to the fact that each point of WAR costs $4.2M (Kepler is $1.7M, Acuna is $196k, Bellinger is $88k).Those 3 players cost less than half of Trout this year, but have combined for almost twice the WAR.

 

Here's an example for you; say you are told you can have one bowl of ice cream, and you get a choice between two bowls.One has 3 scoops, and costs $5, while the other costs $2 for 2 scoops.If all you care about is maximizing your ice cream, you'll get the 3 scoop bowl.However, if you get the 2 scoop bowl, you can use your extra 3 dollars to buy a brownie, some hot fudge, whipped cream, and a cherry.The latter option clearly has more value, which should perhaps be taken into account when conferring an award that has the word Valuable right in it.

 

Dude, we can debate multiple definitions at the same time.I've stated, explicitly and multiple times, that based solely on on-field production (which is the current criteria), Trout is the MVP, it's not close, and it should be unanimous.

 

If the MVP is restricted to the current year (which it should be), but pay is included (which it also should be), Trout is much less valuable, due to the fact that each point of WAR costs $4.2M (Kepler is $1.7M, Acuna is $196k, Bellinger is $88k).Those 3 players cost less than half of Trout this year, but have combined for almost twice the WAR.

 

Here's an example for you; say you are told you can have one bowl of ice cream, and you get a choice between two bowls.One has 3 scoops, and costs $5, while the other costs $2 for 2 scoops.If all you care about is maximizing your ice cream, you'll get the 3 scoop bowl.However, if you get the 2 scoop bowl, you can use your extra 3 dollars to buy a brownie, some hot fudge, whipped cream, and a cherry.The latter option clearly has more value, which should perhaps be taken into account when conferring an award that has the word Valuable right in it.

I was mostly trying to be funny.I disagree that pay should be included in any calculation.I don;t care how much they make. If price per WAR were a factor you might as well just eliminate any veteran over 6 years from consideration.Closest I can come withyour ice cream example is would you rather have Kemps, Edie's, Haagen Daaz, etc. Period. Most valuable asset would be a different discussion and would maybe bring Aj for Nathan, Liriano and Boof or Viola for Aguillera, Tapani into play. A different award could be most best return of WAR for the money. MVP should just be whose production for the current year would you most like to have on your team.If its close then players on competitive teams should be considered.If a guy has 20 homers and 6 of them are walk off that should be considered.If another guy has 20 homers and they all came with plus or minus 5 runs that could be considered also. In other words mostly stat driven but situational consideration. Situational meaning on the field situations not compensation or draft considerations.Thats just IMO.


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