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The #5 pitcher on the 1965 Twins

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 11:27 PM
Tim Flattery had a conversation with Dwight Siebler, who was the 5th start on the 1965 Twins World Series team (the Sandy Koufax series)....
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Take Landis Name off the MVP Award

Other Baseball Today, 08:31 PM
Barry Larkin, former MVP, has been calling for removing the Kenesaw Mountain Landis name from MVP awards.Personally, until I read the art...
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Twins Take to Target Field's Concourses

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:32 PM
Dan Hayes of The Athletic wrote an article about and included some pictures of how the Twins are trying to take advantage of Target Field...
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And then there is the case of the Blue Jays to consider

Other Baseball Today, 06:20 PM
https://www.sportsne...measures-place/ Here we are, theoretically two weeks away from Opening Day. The Blue Jays aren’t yet certain where...
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LG Twins Thread

Other Baseball Today, 06:32 PM
Baseball is coming back to ESPN. Tonight. Come tomorrow, there will be Twins baseball. Live and on the air. Since we are all, by some tra...
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Twins Game Recap (8/20): Cruz Leads Twins Offensive Explosion

Monday night was a bit of a come down to earth for the Minnesota Twins, who cruised their way to a four-game sweep against the Texas Rangers over the weekend. However, the Twins jumped right back on the gas pedal last night again, putting up 14 runs on 10 extra-base hits against the Chicago White Sox. In New York, the Mets took care of business, beating the Cleveland Indians by a score of 9 to 2, which helped the Twins extend their lead in the division back up to three games.
Image courtesy of FanGraphs
Box Score
Pineda: 7 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 4 K, 79.5% strikes (70 of 88 pitches)
Home Runs: Kepler (34), Cruz (33), Polanco (19)
Multi-Hit Games: Kepler (2 for 5, 2B, HR), Cruz (4 for 5, 3 2B, HR), Rosario (2 for 5)
WPA of +0.1: Cruz .347, Kepler .176
WPA of -0.1: None

The pitchers were in control of this game in its early stages, as they both breezed through the first couple of innings, facing just one more batter than the minimum between the two pitchers. However, that narrative took a 180 in the third inning, when both teams found their bats. In the top of the third, Michael Pineda was one out away from another quick inning, leaving just a runner on first. That all changed when Tim Anderson roped a double down the first-base line that ricocheted off the side wall, and away from Jake Cave, allowing Yolmer Sanchez to score from first. Jose Abreu followed that up with another third-inning home run, putting the White Sox 3-0.

Mitch Garver led off the bottom of the third with a double into the right-center field gap, for the Twins first baserunner of the game. Garver advanced to third on a Marwin Gonzalez groundout, but was still standing there with two outs, after Jake Cave struck out. No worries though, as Max Kepler, who was back in the lineup after missing last night’s game as a result of the heat exhaustion he suffered over the weekend in Texas, came through with a two-out, two-run home run to cut the White Sox lead down to one.



After a strong showing in his return from the injured list last night, Nelson Cruz showed everyone that the ruptured tendon in his left wrist wasn’t going to slow him down, as he took Reynaldo Lopez deep to left field, to tie the game at three.



After tying the game up in the bottom of the fourth, Nelson Cruz gave the Twins their first lead of the game, just an inning later. A lead they would not look back from. The inning didn’t look like it was going to be anything much after Mitch Garver and Marwin Gonzalez both grounded out to leadoff the inning. Jake Cave then followed that up with an opposite field single, extending his modest hit streak to eight games. Max Kepler then nubbed the ball two feet in front of home plate, but the inning was kept alive when Jose Abreu inexplicably missed the catch on the throw to first. Jorge Polanco kept the inning going when he was hit by a pitch to load the bases for Nelson Cruz, who promptly delivered with a two-run double off the wall in right. On the very next pitch, Eddie Rosario followed that up with a base hit, bringing in both Polanco and Cruz to extend the Twins lead to four.

Tim Anderson led off the top of the sixth inning with a home run, which was the fourth earned run allowed by Michael Pineda on the night. That marks just the second start for Pineda since the beginning of May, when he has allowed more than three earned runs.

The Twins busted the game wide open with a seven-run inning in the bottom of the eighth. The inning was highlighted by two doubles from Nelson Cruz, a bases clearing double from C.J. Cron, RBI-doubles from both Miguel Sano and Max Kepler, and a two-run home run by Jorge Polanco.





Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Next Three Games
Wed vs CHW, 12:10 pm CT (Giolito-Odorizzi)
Fri vs DET, 7:10 pm CT (TBD-TBD)
Sat vs DET, 6:10 pm CT (TBD-TBD)

Last Game
Twins Game Recap (8/19): Twins Unable to Mount Comeback, Drop Series Opener 6-4

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87 Comments

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Florida Loggerman
Aug 20 2019 11:43 PM

I'm really surprised how the big man Michael Pineda has recovered from almost what, 1 1/2 years from major arm surgery, and has really pitched very well since I think some time in May?It's been a huge difference from the other starters who have really struggled especially since the all star break.with out Pineda coming off his last IL stinit, and again doing really descent again this evening, he got into the 7th I think, which is really what we hope and need from all the Twins starters, now if Jake can put toghether a gem tomorrow afternoon, to get us ready for the mid week match up with the Tigers, let's get er done Jake, spin us win tomorrow, let the Twins get out front with the lead early, and get into the 6-7th innng and hope the combo of Dyson-=Romo-May-& Rogers can continue to close the games out for a much needed win. 

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Brock Beauchamp
Aug 20 2019 11:51 PM

 

I'm really surprised how the big man Michael Pineda has recovered from almost what, 1 1/2 years from major arm surgery, and has really pitched very well since I think some time in May?It's been a huge difference from the other starters who have really struggled especially since the all star break.with out Pineda coming off his last IL stinit, and again doing really descent again this evening, he got into the 7th I think, which is really what we hope and need from all the Twins starters, now if Jake can put toghether a gem tomorrow afternoon, to get us ready for the mid week match up with the Tigers, let's get er done Jake, spin us win tomorrow, let the Twins get out front with the lead early, and get into the 6-7th innng and hope the combo of Dyson-=Romo-May-& Rogers can continue to close the games out for a much needed win. 

We're all impressed with Pineda, right? His ERA since the AS break is 3.07. Very good. 

 

But that's just five starts.

 

Odorizzi has posted a 1.96 ERA over his past four starts since that Yankee implosion.

 

I'm not knocking Pineda, thank god he's been good lately, but people are also bashing Odorizzi at the same time.

 

I still want Odorizzi starting a game more than I want any other Twins starter not named Berrios (and he's on thin ice right now).

    • Dantes929, SwainZag and MN_ExPat like this
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Patrick Wozniak
Aug 21 2019 01:01 AM

 

I came up with a potential long-term feature to add to these things, and the only way to find out if it works was to just start doing them. Here's a pitching-focused review of tonight's game. Still very much working on both the idea and execution.

That was great Tom! Loved the video of Alcala at the end as well...he sure can field the position well! 

    • Tom Froemming, MN_ExPat and wabene like this

 

Holy flying squirrels, Batman!Nelson Cruz doubles twice in bottom of the eighth!

Cruz was amazing. But I have to say, why was he still in for that second at bat? He reached 3rd with one out in the 8th. He should have been pinch run for then, and he certainly didn't need to bat up 8. He's 39 and coming off an injury Rocco. And this is MN sports. 

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yarnivek1972
Aug 21 2019 03:30 AM

Oy. Mauer was close to the leader in WAR that season and probably got a bump because he's a catcher and catchers aren't supposed to do what he did that season. Joe was within a single win of being the league leader, while also catching most of his games (pretty hard to complain about a catcher worth eight wins taking the MVP award).

Meanwhile, Trout is on his merry way to a 10 win season (again) and we're talking about Cruz maybe crossing four wins.

Totally the same argument.

I do not understand why people refuse to accept that Mike Trout should win every MVP award until he stops being Mike Trout at the plate and on the field. He's literally the best baseball player that has ever stepped onto a diamond.

Appreciate greatness when you see it, folks. It doesn't come along that often.


The people that vote have a tendency to give the nod to players from contending teams, which probably eliminates Trout. They also don’t like giving it to a DH, but have occasionally done so.

I would say Bregman is the front runner right now.
Eh who cares about a regular MVP award anyhow. World Series MVP is what Cruz wants.
    • SQUIRREL, USNMCPO, SwainZag and 5 others like this

Random observation. The Twins have 7 guys with OPS above .800. The next highest 3 guys Cron (.790), Schoop (.757) and Gonzalez (.752) have combined for 51 homers and 156 RBI. That is a deep lineup.

    • SwainZag, big dog, bighat and 4 others like this
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diehardtwinsfan
Aug 21 2019 05:22 AM

 

Oy. Mauer was close to the leader in WAR that season and probably got a bump because he's a catcher and catchers aren't supposed to do what he did that season. Joe was within a single win of being the league leader, while also catching most of his games (pretty hard to complain about a catcher worth eight wins taking the MVP award).

 

Meanwhile, Trout is on his merry way to a 10 win season (again) and we're talking about Cruz maybe crossing four wins.

 

Totally the same argument.

 

I do not understand why people refuse to accept that Mike Trout should win every MVP award until he stops being Mike Trout at the plate and on the field. He's literally the best baseball player that has ever stepped onto a diamond.

 

Appreciate greatness when you see it, folks. It doesn't come along that often.

 

yeah, and it's not like Trout plays 1B or something either. He's doing this at a defensive position. Trout deserves it until Trout stops being Trout. 

    • Dantes929 and MN_ExPat like this
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IndianaTwin
Aug 21 2019 05:26 AM

This post piqued my interest and I went searching. The Bash Brothers never clubbed 40 home runs in any one year that I could find. The Colorado Rockies in 1997 had three players reach 40 home runs in one season (the only time it's been done??).
 
Walker 49 (130 RBIs)
Galarraga 41 (140 RBIs)
Castilla 40 (113 RBIs)
 
Interestingly, that team also included Dante Bichette who hit only 26 home runs but drove in 118 runs as well as Ellis Burks who clubbed 32 (82 RBIs).
 
The other weird discovery was that in 1920 Babe Ruth hit 54 home runs, but his total was more than the total home runs for every other team in the league (maybe I rediscovered this...I think I had read it once before).


1973 Braves — Dave Johnson (43), Darrell Evans (41), Hank Aaron (40)
    • PDX Twin, MN_ExPat and Aerodeliria like this
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Nine of twelve
Aug 21 2019 05:59 AM

 

It's most valuable, not best player. Clearly Trout is the best player in the game, but is he the most valuable to his team? Morneau wasn't the best player in the league, nor was Mauer.

You may be right about Morneau, but I'll disagree about Mauer. He was the best baseball player in the world that year.

    • SwainZag and wabene like this

...and the Twins squirrel away another victory...

    • PDX Twin likes this

Polanco quietly coming out of his....well, I won't call it a "slump", but you know what I mean. Smalley remarked that he had shortened up his swing a bit over the past week. Looks very quick.

 

We are pretty spoiled seeing games like this frequently over the season. Just a drubbing, once again in double-digits. Absolutely need to take this series with a win today (Wednesday) and it was nice to see the bats warm up. Giolito has had a good year, should be an interesting game.

    • SwainZag, Danchat and wabene like this

 

If you had told me Kep was going to hit 34HR this year I’d have shat myself.

If you’d have followed it up by saying “with 6 weeks left in the season” I would have flung my poo at you, figuring we were all just in the looney bin so might as well act the part.

Hey Scooter, that party at my house- we decided to move it.I'll let you know where it's going to be, unless I lost your phone number.

    • ScooterDance, wabene and EPEZRider like this

 

Bravo. Trout is the best player most of us will EVER see. I live in LA and I go to the Angels 2-3 times a year just to see him play. I just hope the Angels someday build a real team around him. When the Twins are having a down year anyway, of course.

I think the voters get to put ten players on the ballot, right?You can believe Mike Trout is the MVP and still give Cruz and eight other players some consideration.  

 

If he means he gets votes in the bottom half the of the top I could see that.

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Don Walcott
Aug 21 2019 06:32 AM
I’m really proud that our boys scored so many runs in the bottom of the eighth without swinging at any 3-0 pitches.
    • Dantes929, SwainZag, big dog and 3 others like this

I came up with a potential long-term feature to add to these things, and the only way to find out if it works was to just start doing them. Here's a pitching-focused review of tonight's game. Still very much working on both the idea and execution.


I like what you’re doing. I’m interested in thinking about different ways to track, chart, and think about relief pitchers.

Sam Dyson, Sergio Romo, and Trevor May all have an ERA of between 3.40-3.42, but have seemingly had very different seasons. That is, due to relievers only pitching a few innings a season, and a few bad outings really skewing aggregate numbers... ERA is probably not the best way to think about how successful a reliever is. There definitely is a leverage component you’d have to build out and I think you’ve started it, but I was thinking about trying to track relievers in 2 ways:

1) Create a blow-up metric. My first thought was any outing where a reliever gives up 2 or more runs is a “blow-up”. Blow-ups are really bad for relievers and will more often not lead directly or almost directly to a loss. I don’t think the numbers in a blow-up matter as much as HOW OFTEN a blow-up happens (this especially rings true for high-leverage relievers who normally pitch late in the game and with small leads).

A successful reliever will be one who blows up the most infrequently i.e. if Dyson blows up 15% of the time and Romo blows up 10% of the time that means Dyson will lose you a game 3 out of every 20 outings versus 2 for Romo (hypothetical).

From there, after isolating the blow-up sample I’d like to take a look at reliever ERA/WHIP/K/BB/etc numbers from their non-blow-up sample. Basically, who is the best outside of the odd outing where they blow-up?

This would show you the true talent of a reliever over the majority of their games. Relievers who’s majority of good or non-blow up games are a really high percentage with better ERA/WHIP/etc numbers would be considered the best.

My hypothesis is that you’d see that most relievers have pretty good numbers but the key would be how reliable are they to not blow up? I think you’d see a difference between elite relievers and the Trevor May’s of the world in terms of blow up percentage. Thus, a Trevor May is harder to trust and should be a 6th/7th inning guy versus an 8th/9th inning guy.

Might put something together with Twins relievers if I get some free time.
    • 70charger, Dman, Tom Froemming and 2 others like this

I like what you’re doing. I’m interested in thinking about different ways to track, chart, and think about relief pitchers.

Sam Dyson, Sergio Romo, and Trevor May all have an ERA of between 3.40-3.42, but have seemingly had very different seasons. That is, due to relievers only pitching a few innings a season, and a few bad outings really skewing aggregate numbers... ERA is probably not the best way to think about how successful a reliever is. There definitely is a leverage component you’d have to build out and I think you’ve started it, but I was thinking about trying to track relievers in 2 ways:

1) Create a blow-up metric. My first thought was any outing where a reliever gives up 2 or more runs is a “blow-up”. Blow-ups are really bad for relievers and will more often not lead directly or almost directly to a loss. I don’t think the numbers in a blow-up matter as much as HOW OFTEN a blow-up happens (this especially rings true for high-leverage relievers who normally pitch late in the game and with small leads).

A successful reliever will be one who blows up the most infrequently i.e. if Dyson blows up 15% of the time and Romo blows up 10% of the time that means Dyson will lose you a game 3 out of every 20 outings versus 2 for Romo (hypothetical).

From there, after isolating the blow-up sample I’d like to take a look at reliever ERA/WHIP/K/BB/etc numbers from their non-blow-up sample. Basically, who is the best outside of the odd outing where they blow-up?

This would show you the true talent of a reliever over the majority of their games. Relievers who’s majority of good or non-blow up games are a really high percentage with better ERA/WHIP/etc numbers would be considered the best.

My hypothesis is that you’d see that most relievers have pretty good numbers but the key would be how reliable are they to not blow up? I think you’d see a difference between elite relievers and the Trevor May’s of the world in terms of blow up percentage. Thus, a Trevor May is harder to trust and should be a 6th/7th inning guy versus an 8th/9th inning guy.

Might put something together with Twins relievers if I get some free time.


I would guess that the pitchers worth lower whip/bb/oslg higher ks, would also blow up less and not have to deal with inherited runners coming into middle off innings, etc. I guess you don't know unless you calculate it out.
    • twins1095 likes this

 

While I appreciate the very well thought out and intelligent post, your point basically boils down to:

Nelson Cruz has a lower wRC+ than Mike Trout, except Trout also plays one of the most important positions on the diamond very well.

 

Don't forget, Trout has also provided that wRC+ in 31 more games played... 

 

This post piqued my interest and I went searching. The Bash Brothers never clubbed 40 home runs in any one year that I could find. The Colorado Rockies in 1997 had three players reach 40 home runs in one season (the only time it's been done??).

 

Walker 49 (130 RBIs)

Galarraga 41 (140 RBIs)

Castilla 40 (113 RBIs)

 

Interestingly, that team also included Dante Bichette who hit only 26 home runs but drove in 118 runs as well as Ellis Burks who clubbed 32 (82 RBIs).

 

The other weird discovery was that in 1920 Babe Ruth hit 54 home runs, but his total was more than the total home runs for every other team in the league (maybe I rediscovered this...I think I had read it once before).

The 1973 Braves had Hank Aaron, Darrell Evans and Davey Johnson at 40, 41, and 43 homers respectfully. They also finished 5th at 76-85. Homers good, pitching not so much.

    • SwainZag and Eephus like this

 

You may be right about Morneau, but I'll disagree about Mauer. He was the best baseball player in the world that year.

.321 avg.34 homers and 130 RBI. Morneau was the best player in the league that year.

    • wabene likes this

Making an argument for anyone but Trout is like giving MVP awards to anyone but Jordan in his prime.Was Malone best player or most valuable?No, regardless of which team he was on.  

    • alarp33 likes this
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Tom Froemming
Aug 21 2019 07:22 AM

 

I like what you’re doing. I’m interested in thinking about different ways to track, chart, and think about relief pitchers.
 ...
1) Create a blow-up metric. 

Your post highlights some really fun possibilities I see in this project. Putting such a microscope on the pitching and tracking things day-to-day could sprout some really fun, different ways of looking at things.

 

I definitely agree with you that ERA isn't a very good metric to value relievers by. I think FIP/xFIP/SIERA do a much better job. Here's where Taylor Rogers ranks among relievers in all those metrics, for example:

 

ERA 22nd | FIP 12th | xFIP 14th | SIERA 12th

 

But, I also feel the same way as you about there being a problem with full-season stats for relief pitchers in general. I love WPA, but even that has it's blind spots. The other day I was trying to drum up a sort of game score metric that could be used for relievers, but couldn't come up with anything that was satisfying.

 

Worth mentioning: There already is a Shutdowns and Meltdowns metric that's based on WPA. You can read about it here and see how the Twins rank here (last two columns SD & MD). Even though that's some great stuff from FanGraphs, it would be nice if those were available as percentage of outings. 

    • MN_ExPat and twins1095 like this
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goatsandstuff
Aug 21 2019 07:34 AM

 

I came up with a potential long-term feature to add to these things, and the only way to find out if it works was to just start doing them. Here's a pitching-focused review of tonight's game. Still very much working on both the idea and execution.

I like the format, the stat stack is a really nice overview of how the pitchers look

    • twins1095 likes this

 

Oy. Mauer was close to the leader in WAR that season and probably got a bump because he's a catcher and catchers aren't supposed to do what he did that season. Joe was within a single win of being the league leader, while also catching most of his games (pretty hard to complain about a catcher worth eight wins taking the MVP award).

 

Meanwhile, Trout is on his merry way to a 10 win season (again) and we're talking about Cruz maybe crossing four wins.

 

Totally the same argument.

 

I do not understand why people refuse to accept that Mike Trout should win every MVP award until he stops being Mike Trout at the plate and on the field. He's literally the best baseball player that has ever stepped onto a diamond.

 

Appreciate greatness when you see it, folks. It doesn't come along that often.

To be honest? Kind of sick of hearing about him. Year after year. 


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