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Front Page: Who is the Twins Team MVP?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 02:04 AM
2019 has been a bit of a Hollywood season for the Minnesota Twins. After finishing 2018 with a record below .500, and losing a player who...
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VOTE NOW: Team captain nominations

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 02:04 AM
Surprised to discover that the Twins have not had a team captain since Harmon Killebrew. Leadership counts when a club is playing for the...
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Front Page: Twins Game Recap (9/15): Bad Defense Costs Tw...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 02:04 AM
The Twins lost the series finale to the Indians 7-5 after taking both games of the doubleheader the day before. Leaving Cleveland with a...
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Front Page: Will Minnesota Get Raided This Off-Season?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:39 AM
It can’t be argued that Minnesota is having one of their best seasons in the Target Field era. Rocco Baldelli and his coaching staff have...
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Are we done with Gibson? Once and for all

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 11:55 PM
I'm hoping this is one of last times we see Gibson. He has had one good year and every other year has been above 4 ERA. He actually broke...
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Twins Game Recap (8/16): Twins Prevail Behind Clutch Schoop HR, Great Bullpen Performance

It wasn’t an easy one, but the Twins managed to defeat All-Star lefty Mike Minor and the Rangers in the second game of the series in Arlington, 4-3. Jonathan Schoop hit a clutch game-winning two-run dinger and the bullpen combined to throw 3 1/3 innings of shutout ball.
Image courtesy of FanGraphs
Box Score
Odorizzi: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 59.6% strikes (59 of 99 pitches)
Bullpen: 3.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Home Runs: Kepler (33), Schoop (17)
Multi-Hit Games: Gonzalez (3-for-4), Adrianza (2-for-4)

Top 3 WPA: Schoop .288, Romo .230, Rogers .155
Bottom 3 WPA: Cron -.115, Polanco -.113, Garver -.098

Cleveland dropped the second game of their series against the Yankees in New York, which brings the Twins lead to a game and a half atop of the AL Central. That’s the highest advantage the Twins have since Aug. 7, as they now own a 74-48 record, still the fourth best in baseball.

Unlike the series opener, it took Minnesota a bit longer to get on the board. After throwing a 26-pitch, but scoreless, first inning, Mike Minor managed to keep the Twins scoreless until the fourth, but they took advantage of a Rougned Odor error, who dropped a Miguel Sanó routine pop-up. Right on the first pitch after that, Max Kepler homered to right field, to give Minnesota a two-run lead.

Wunderboy keeps adding accomplishments to his career year. This was his 33rd home run of the season, which moved him closer to the single season record for a Twins outfielder, as informed by our Twins Daily own Ted Schwerzler. He also moved the Twins a bit closer to the all-time single season home run record. All with this bomb:



Odorizzi continues to bounce back
After the worst month of his career after his rookie season (7.43 ERA this July), Jake Odorizzi continues to show signs of recovery. He couldn’t hold on to the one-run lead he took into the sixth, but he was one out short of a quality start. After tonight, he is now posting a 2.07 ERA in three August starts and 1.95 if you count his last July start, against the Marlins. His improvement brings Twins fans a little more optimism for a playoff run, since he’s starting to look much more like the All-Star he was during the first half of the season--in a much needed time.

Other than a rare wild pitch during the fourth inning (only his second as a Twin), he basically didn’t have big problems in his first five innings of the game, allowing the Rangers to score only one run on three hits. But Texas got to him during the sixth and made him pay after he allowed a leadoff double and a two-out walk. Nomar Mazara became the last batter he faced, as he hit a two-out double to deep center field, giving the home team its first lead in the series. But that wouldn’t last very long.

The unlikely hero
Batting only .217 in his previous 15 games coming into tonight and having hit his last homer in Jul. 28,, I guess it’s hard to say many people envisioned Jonathan Schoop being the one to push Minnesota toward the win. But that’s the magic with this year’s Twins. The Bombas simply won’t stop. He crushed a 2-2 changeup over the plate, following a Marwin Gonzalez single and the Twins retook the lead.



Other than hopefully providing Schoop’s season with a sparkle he’s been looking for in the past two months, that home run was the 238th for the Twins this year and they now need 30 to break the Yankees single-season record established last year. Minnesota is on pace to hit 316 this year.

The bullpen takes care of business
When Odorizzi gave up that lead-blowing double in the sixth, Tyler Duffey was called to put out the fire. He struck out Odor to end the inning and started a very efficient night for the Twins ‘pen. Sam Dyson recorded his third consecutive scoreless outing for Minnesota. He did get some help from the defense, which turned an inning- ending double play after he allowed two runners to reach.

In his first appearance since giving up a tenth inning grand slam on Sunday, Taylor Rogers came into the game in the eighth and also held the Rangers scoreless. When most people thought he would come back to record another six-out save, Baldelli decided to bring in Sergio Romo and he also got the job done, earning his 20th save of the year.

Hats off to Margo
Despite the colder than usual night from the offense, Marwin Gonzalez simply refuses to cool down. After a four-hit night on Thursday, Margo led Minnesota with three hits on the night and he’s now batting .404 since the start of the Atlanta series.

Postgame With Baldelli


Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet
Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

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39 Comments

Good game ... good win!

    • MN_ExPat and Original Whizzinator like this

This looks like our playoff bullpen rotation, probably in different orders depending on teams and in game batter match ups. If it holds (pun intended) that would be great.

 

I just really, really, really wanted Minor at the trade deadline and I still really really really want Minor in our rotation now. He would have been huge for us.

 

Would like to know the details of that specific discussion. I think there were intense talks and I suspect they may have held on to their prospects too tight....but we'll never know....

    • howeda7, Original Whizzinator, Battle ur tail off and 1 other like this
Didn't think Romo was gonna get it done, and Schoop the hero, who knew?
    • Original Whizzinator likes this

Best thing of the game: Tie between Dyson and Schoop. Twins desperately need Dyson to be what he was for the Giants, and today he got close. Schoop meanwhile has been riding the bench a lot lately as Sweet Luis wows the league with his rookie debut. Schoop looked very...well rested, and he played with happy enthusiasm. 

 

Adrianza and Sano also were good things, but not so surprising. Kepler...well, he's just looking like a core player for this talented wave of Twins squads. Each new season he appears to get noticeably better. 

    • Madisonsdad, CUtomorrownight, Original Whizzinator and 2 others like this

 

Best thing of the game: Tie between Dyson and Schoop. Twins desperately need Dyson to be what he was for the Giants, and today he got close. Schoop meanwhile has been riding the bench a lot lately as Sweet Luis wows the league with his rookie debut. Schoop looked very...well rested, and he played with happy enthusiasm. 

 

Adrianza and Sano also were good things, but not so surprising. Kepler...well, he's just looking like a core player for this talented wave of Twins squads. Each new season he appears to get noticeably better. 

I predict that next year Kepler explodes and ends up entrenched as our #3 hitter

    • twinsnorth49 likes this
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Only Here in Negative
Aug 16 2019 10:09 PM
Adrianza over the last 50 games has an ops of close to 1.000
    • Dman, Battle ur tail off and jz7233 like this

1. Arraez

2. Polanco

3. Kepler

4. Cruz

5. Sano (1B)

6. Rosario

7. Garver

8. Gonzalez (3b)

9. Buxton

 

Good God will that line up rake

    • glunn, Jerr, twinsnorth49 and 2 others like this

 

I predict that next year Kepler explodes and ends up entrenched as our #3 hitter

On pace for 44 homers. Could make a fair case for team MVP.Kind of interested to hear what you think exploding would look like.

    • Jerr, SwainZag, Sconnie and 3 others like this

 

This looks like our playoff bullpen rotation, probably in different orders depending on teams and in game batter match ups. If it holds (pun intended) that would be great.

 

I just really, really, really wanted Minor at the trade deadline and I still really really really want Minor in our rotation now. He would have been huge for us.

 

Would like to know the details of that specific discussion. I think there were intense talks and I suspect they may have held on to their prospects too tight....but we'll never know....

Same here. I really liked Minor. He is a gamer. He is exactly the pitcher Twins need in the post season.

    • glunn and David HK like this

I told my wife in the 6th that Rogers needed to come in to face Mazara. Partly cuz Odorizzi was at the end of his usual stint and also because Smalley said Odorizzi's outing was fantastic only allowing 1 run in 6 innings.Havven't he and Dick every heard of jinxes. Or about counting chickens before they hatch?Really glad we came back to win that one.

 

I predict that next year Kepler explodes and ends up entrenched as our #3 hitter

Kepler needs to raise his average quite a bit to be #3 hitter though, he is a legit #4 hitter behind Cruz though. Sano #5 Rosario #6

 

1. Arraez

2. Polanco

3. Kepler

4. Cruz

5. Sano (1B)

6. Rosario

7. Garver

8. Gonzalez (3b)

9. Buxton

 

Good God will that line up rake

Polanco

Arraez

Cruz

Kepler

Garver

Rosario

Sano

Gonzalez

Buxton

    • LA VIkes Fan likes this
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stringer bell
Aug 17 2019 03:59 AM
Small nit to pick, Dyson is the winning pitcher? I thought Duffey was the pitcher of record.
Photo
Original Whizzinator
Aug 17 2019 06:13 AM
Very nice win. A depth win. What I want to see is Rocco getting a win today without using Rogers, Dyson or Romo.
Photo
Richard Swerdlick
Aug 17 2019 06:14 AM

Nice to see Jonathan Schoop get a clutch hit. Also, I wonder what Odo's ERA is for just the 6th inning of each game. I bet it isn't pretty. He reminds me of the Big Red Machine's Don Gullett who was a great pitcher but a 5 inning pitcher.

    • David HK likes this

Nice to see Jonathan Schoop get a clutch hit. Also, I wonder what Odo's ERA is for just the 6th inning of each game. I bet it isn't pretty. He reminds me of the Big Red Machine's Don Gullett who was a great pitcher but a 5 inning pitcher.


His 6th inning ERA this year is 3.00 (4 ER/12IP).

His worst inning is actually the 1st inning, and by a lot. (5.16)
    • Danchat and Only Here in Negative like this

Between a fine play at 2B and the two-run homer, a really, really nice game for Jonathan.

    • Dantes929, adorduan and MN_ExPat like this
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terrydactyls1947
Aug 17 2019 06:40 AM

Yesterday was Friday, August 16.It was the 122nd game of the year putting the Twins 75% of the way through the season.The Twins hit 2 home runs upping their record-breaking season total to 238 home runs.They are now only 29 home runs behind the single-season MLB record.

    • Jerr and JDubs like this

 

 

I just really, really, really wanted Minor at the trade deadline and I still really really really want Minor in our rotation now. He would have been huge for us.

 

Would like to know the details of that specific discussion. I think there were intense talks and I suspect they may have held on to their prospects too tight....but we'll never know....

+1. Especially since he is under contract for ~9 million next season. 

Since Rogers has been awful in back-to-backs, why not use him for the 2 inning save and have Romo pitch the 9th tomorrow if needed?

    • Original Whizzinator likes this

 

Yesterday was Friday, August 16.It was the 122nd game of the year putting the Twins 75% of the way through the season.The Twins hit 2 home runs upping their record-breaking season total to 238 home runs.They are now only 29 home runs behind the single-season MLB record.

When will the Twins hit #267?

Isn't Duffey settling into his role nicely?Has been great coming out of the pen with men on base and keeping there on most days.

    • Sconnie and Original Whizzinator like this

 

His 6th inning ERA this year is 3.00 (4 ER/12IP).

His worst inning is actually the 1st inning, and by a lot. (5.16)

According to baseball reference his 1st inning ERA is 4.94. 13 earned runs in almost 24 innings.Powered largely by giving up 5 runs in the 1st inning in his 2nd start of the year. His 6th inning ERA is 4.26.Pretty sure your stat didn't include last night's game.In his career the 6th and 7th innings haven't been very good.Of course in last night's game I thought he should have been pulled a batter sooner and might have avoided those two runs.Not just hindsight. I thought it was a key moment in the game and that Rogers could have gotten him and then pitch one more inning.Thanks to Schoop it wasn't disastrous.

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jorgenswest
Aug 17 2019 07:55 AM

Isn't Duffey settling into his role nicely?Has been great coming out of the pen with men on base and keeping there on most days.


I sorted him with relievers that have thrown at least 30 innings. In that group of over 200 pitchers he is 50th in ERA. That gives you an idea of how he has performed but not a reliable projector.

At the sample better indicators include his SIERA, XFIP and K%-BB% which rank in the 30s (32-39). All solid rankings in a group of 200.

He belongs as a middle reliever on a playoff team.
    • Sconnie, DocBauer, MN_ExPat and 1 other like this
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jorgenswest
Aug 17 2019 08:04 AM

His 6th inning ERA this year is 3.00 (4 ER/12IP).
His worst inning is actually the 1st inning, and by a lot. (5.16)


Overall starting pitchers have their highest ERA in the first inning.

There is bias in the sample. The group of batters they will have faced in the first inning are better than the group they will have faced in any other inning. They are guaranteed to see the best hitters of the opposing team.

That same bias can be found when looking data in the number of times a pitcher faces a batter. The third time through will be worse for pitchers overall. A big factor is that same bias due to sample. Most pitchers will hit their pitch count somewhere around 22-24 batters. The group of batters in that third time through is heavily biased toward the top of the line up and the opposing team’s best hitters.
    • SwainZag, Dman and Original Whizzinator like this

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