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Zulgad: Is MLB really making return about dollars and cents?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 08:45 AM
https://www.skornort...lars-and-cents/   The owners have made their proposal to the players. The players association will now have t...
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2020 MINOR LEAGUE SEASON

Twins Minor League Talk Yesterday, 04:03 PM
Baseball America takes a look at what is happening in the minors, a season that would now have been a couple of weeks old.   https:/...
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Virtual Twins Baseball Megathread

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 04:03 PM
Moving forward this will house every game-thread in the comments below until real baseball hopefully comes back. I should have done this...
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Recent Proposal

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:29 AM
https://theathletic....=freedailyemail   The players have rejected the owners last proposal, the players have proposed a longer seas...
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Too Far From Town: Elizabethton Twins

Twins Minor League Talk 28 May 2020
This seems to be a free article in the Baseball Prospectus series on minor league teams in danger of elimination.   https://www.base...
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Recent Blogs


Twins Front Office Testing Fate in Waiting

Make no mistake, as good as the Twins front office has been, they are absolute wordsmiths. Having walked back their original plan this offseason, they are now facing a situation where they could be shut out of necessary roster additions. With only final touches remaining, it’s time to get serious about stepping up.
Image courtesy of © Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Dan Hayes wrote a story on Tuesday at The Athletic that focused on the acquisitions of Rich Hill and Homer Bailey. The former is a top-notch arm that struggles to stay healthy, and the latter represents a solid addition to the floor of the starting rotation. What neither of them accomplish is the impact pitching that Minnesota suggested they were targeting. Thad Levine told Hayes, “The one thing we’ve learned over the years is that you can’t just have a Plan A. Tomorrow’s Plan B becomes the next day’s Plan A.” Derek Falvey went on to suggest he “may rue the day I ever mentioned that (impact) as a singular word.”

More swiftly than a dancing Michael Jackson, Minnesota’s top duo is moonwalking their opening comments backwards.

There is truth to Falvey’s suggestion that the current Twins roster has impact all over it. They won 101 games, returned a significant amount of talent, and have added to the point where they are better now than when the season ended. All of that is true, but the goal this winter should be to expand upon the opportunity currently in front of them.

You can’t fault the Twins for being shut out by uninterested free agents. Gerrit Cole wasn’t coming here, and Stephen Strasburg wanted a Washington reunion. Madison Bumgarner told everyone "No" because he loves his horses, and Zack Wheeler preferred family ties (although the Twins offer being $18MM short probably made that decision easier). Where blame can start to be placed is when obvious opportunity is met with only moderate execution.

Enter Josh Donaldson.

As Levine suggested, the Twins plans have now shifted. The starting pitching market is largely bare, and unless they’re going to swing a trade (they still should), Hill and Bailey represent the lone new additions. Upgrading elsewhere makes sense, and the former Braves third basemen is an ideal fit for the Bomba Squad.

With C.J. Cron onto Detroit, Rocco Baldelli is tasked with designating a new first basemen. Miguel Sano has proven limited, especial going to his left at third base, and would be an ideal candidate to make the switch. Generating 15 DRS a year ago, Donaldson would provide a defensive boon in the infield, and it’s a unit that needs to take a significant step forward. Throw in his .900 OPS from 2019 and you’ve got the makings of a superstar.

Reports suggest that Donaldson has at least three four-year offers, coming from Minnesota, Washington, and Atlanta. He’s had the Twins ask for over two weeks though, and that’s where my problem lies. The Nationals are synonymous for deferrals, so it’s fair to assume that could be prohibiting them from being in contention. Atlanta is best positioned geographically, and it was said the third basemen was simply waiting on a guaranteed fourth year from his hometown club. Dangling in front of him is the Twins payday that’s not quite good enough to make a decision.

Ken Rosenthal reported on Friday night that Donaldson is waiting for a team to hit his number, believed to be near $110 million. There's possibility Donaldson is angling for Atlanta to be his destination while increasing the take; after all suggestions indicate the Braves will get an opportunity to match before this is done. What also is apparent through Ronsethal's report is that Minnesota isn't there. Expected to be around the 4yr/$100MM range, the Twins leave it to chance to dictate an outcome. Derek Falvey should be on the phone with MVP Sports Group offering up $120 million over four and calling it a day.

We can discuss value forever, and there's inherent risk any time you sign a big-dollar free agent. The reality though, is that injury concerns don't subside simply because you end negotiations at $100 million. Also, after pivoting to this plan, are you really interested in going to Plan C because the cost of what amounts to a relief arm ($5 million AAV over the four years) is too much?
It’s probably unfair to be frustrated about simply being "in" on free agents. That’s going to happen, and you’re not completely interested in every player you’ve been tied to. Minnesota has been set on two players this offseason however, and they’re now in jeopardy of losing the second because of playing the value game. At some point need and opportunity should factor into the discussion, and by the time Falvey and Levine get there this time around, it may be too late.

This offseason would presently be graded as a “C” which is fine if you’re ok with status quo. Looking to take the next step, and truly capitalize on your opportunity, pushing for an “A” is a must. There’s one bullet left, but you actually have to take the shot.

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87 Comments

Well falvine have had 2 playoff teams that completely surprised them both times

the first one, sure.

Not the second.

 

the first one, sure.

Not the second.

101 wins.You saw that all the way?

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Ted Schwerzler
Jan 04 2020 07:38 PM

 

Romo was on the team at the end of the year. Just as with signing Pineda and Odo, that's simply staying even. Clippard remains our only improvement. 

I'm of the opinion that Hill a very good pitcher still, and that Bailey is Kyle Gibson with just as much upside.

    • tarheeltwinsfan likes this
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Ted Schwerzler
Jan 04 2020 07:40 PM

 

Respectfully Ted and the rest of you negative nellies your glass is CLEARLY half empty. 

To be fair, I've been the "wait and see" guy all winter. I think the way they've handled Donaldson isn't a great look, but have continued to suggest there's a month and a half to turn around an offseason of misses. This team isn't going to be bad. The offseason hasn't been good though, and that's less than ideal with as much opportunity as is in front of them.

    • SQUIRREL and tarheeltwinsfan like this
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Ted Schwerzler
Jan 04 2020 07:43 PM

 

101 wins.You saw that all the way?

101 wins is a microcosm of the division, but winning the Central shouldn't have been a shock.

    • Sconnie and ChiefsKid like this

 

I honestly do not know much about the 2 new pitchers and have heard Donaldson's name over the years but is this just like the dumpster diving we are used to?Is the new front office better at dumpster diving?Seems like we are just getting older players near the end of their careers.  

 

Oh....You must not remember the days when the Front Office decided to garbage pick people like Tony Batista, a guy who was not playing particularly well in Japan when the Twins decided to make him their every day 3rd baseman in 2006.  

That was surreal.  

 

 

    • tarheeltwinsfan likes this
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tarheeltwinsfan
Jan 04 2020 07:57 PM

 

I honestly do not know much about the 2 new pitchers and have heard Donaldson's name over the years but is this just like the dumpster diving we are used to?Is the new front office better at dumpster diving?Seems like we are just getting older players near the end of their careers.  

Like Cruz ?

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tarheeltwinsfan
Jan 04 2020 08:00 PM

 

I hope this extended failure results in another 100 win season.

LOL

You really expected something other than what we're seeing this offseason?

 

Charlie-Brown-Lucy-Football.png

    • Steve Lein, Lunger, Sconnie and 3 others like this

 

 

Not sure what the long term plan is here. 

Probably to commit to short term plans.In that list you have, I don't see anyone worth tying our boat to except for maybe Odorizzi. 

 

101 wins. You saw that all the way?

way more than half of TD predictors had the Twins in contention last March. I'm pretty confident the FO wasnt surprised to contend either.

Nobody saw 101, but plenty had them as 90-ish.
    • DocBauer, Wizard11, ewen21 and 1 other like this
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Nine of twelve
Jan 04 2020 09:06 PM

 

The Twins don't have any more chance to land Donaldson than they did Strasburg, Wheeler, Ryu, or Rendon. This team is the Pittsburgh Pirates of the AL. Nobody wants to sign here, despite the nice park.

That's the thing about the free agent market. It's the anti-draft. Instead of the team choosing a player the player chooses a team. If a player doesn't want to play for a team it doesn't matter how much he's offered.

In spite of 101 wins I would guess that many players still view the Twins as perennial non-contenders. I think we're going to have to prove ourselves by putting together a few more years of high-level performance before players consider Minneapolis to be a worthwhile destination.

If the Twins want Donaldson why don't they just give him what he wants? Why make it into a bidding game for dollars or seasons? If they were really serious it should be done already. If the offer of 4 years and $100M is what he wants and he isn't signing then he is basically telling them no, I don't want to play for you. It's not rocket science. Move on, tell him the offer is good until such and such a day and if you don't accept what we are offering you by then, which is what you want, then don't let the door hit you in the A$$. 

They have failed at adding impact pitching so what's one more failure...... piece of cake. Move on, get a 1st baseman and let Sano play 3rd another year. Big deal. Without the Ace pitcher we had hoped for it'll be an early exit in the playoffs again anyway. There's always next year... Twins fans have gotten use to it.... 

    • sweetmusicviola16 likes this

I don't know what to make of the high priced free agents this year. It seems like they are using the Twins' interest and offers to drive up other teams' offers. If you listen to Ray Manzarek's comments, that is the impression I am getting from all this. Please note, I don't think I could post the response so listen at your own risk

 

They could easily have signed Ryu or Kuchel. Instead we're going into the season with a joke of a rotation and a payroll of $110 million, $20 million less than two years ago and the same as it was 10 freaking years ago. It's embarrassing and unacceptable. Huge failure by Falvey and Levine. Fresh off their huge failure at the trade deadline.

    • Battle ur tail off and HawksNest like this

 

They could easily have signed Ryu or Kuchel. Instead we're going into the season with a joke of a rotation and a payroll of $110 million, $20 million less than two years ago and the same as it was 10 freaking years ago. It's embarrassing and unacceptable. Huge failure by Falvey and Levine. Fresh off their huge failure at the trade deadline.

 

Don't forget trading away arguably 2 of the very best right handed relievers in the MLB and a guy that would slot in pretty well at 3B right now that hit 35 HRs last season (Eduardo Escobar)....

 

Point being, outside of Cruz and Odo, player acquisitions by this FO have not been their strong suit

    • ken and mshnd06 like this

way more than half of TD predictors had the Twins in contention last March. I'm pretty confident the FO wasnt surprised to contend either.

Nobody saw 101, but plenty had them as 90-ish.


Right. My thoughts going into last year were that they could win as few as 70 and as many as 95, depending on how the young players performed. 101 was a bonus, but not totally out of the blue. As things stand, I don’t think it’s at all inappropriate to expect more than 90 in 2020. It’s easy to lose sight of all the good things about this team when the off-season is quieter than it should be, but I think it would benefit everyone to remember that we’ve got a really good ball club to root for.
    • DocBauer likes this

They could easily have signed Ryu or Kuchel. Instead we're going into the season with a joke of a rotation and a payroll of $110 million, $20 million less than two years ago and the same as it was 10 freaking years ago. It's embarrassing and unacceptable. Huge failure by Falvey and Levine. Fresh off their huge failure at the trade deadline.

This is not a joke of a rotation.

It’s very easy (and therapeutic) to forget about the days when Scott Diamond and Sam Deduno were our aces.
    • scottz, DocBauer and ewen21 like this

 

We are fine ... the sky is not falling folks. 

No, the sky isn't falling .. but it's awful cloudy outside. Too many "ifs" and "maybes" and expecting some of the breakout players from last year to play as well again this coming season as they did last year. Doubtful that will happen again. Sure, we could win the division again with the current roster, but we still don't have the arms in the starting rotation that will take us past the first round. And who's on first?

Wasn't that last year?I guess extending would count. I have to believe they know what they are doing butI am afraid last year was our year and we didn't have the pitching to go all the way.I

101 wins was great! Not winning a game in the playoffs not so great. 

You cannot force a player to sign where he doesn't want to play. Donaldson seems to be using the Twins interest to jack up the $$ of the offer from the team he really wants to play for. That is his (agents) right to do. Too bad the Twins fell into the trap and we, the fans got excited about the possibility of him playing here (like the other players, I don't think there was ever a chance of him signing here). Time to move on.
    • ewen21 likes this

 

They could easily have signed Ryu or Kuchel. Instead we're going into the season with a joke of a rotation and a payroll of $110 million, $20 million less than two years ago and the same as it was 10 freaking years ago. It's embarrassing and unacceptable. Huge failure by Falvey and Levine. Fresh off their huge failure at the trade deadline.

Toronto has a HUGE Asian community so that likely helped them in signing Ryu.We have no idea how much of an influence that had on him, but they are excited to have him:

https://toronto.ctvn...1?clipId=104070

 

You seem to be hung up on WE DIDN'T OFFER HIM ENOUGH MONEY.What do you think it would have taken?Also, do you understand he has pitched more than 90 innings twice in the last five seasons?I am kind of mystified as to how you or anyone could be so up in arms about not giving a pitcher like this 100 million dollars.Please explain that one.

    • DocBauer likes this
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FormerMinnasotan
Jan 05 2020 10:55 AM
Waiting won’t sign José Berríos to the type of contract extension he will be seeking. If the FO is going to play this “wait and see” game with Berríos pretty soon he’ll end being too expensive to extend anyway. There’s also the possibility given the tepid nature of the FO that Berríos doesn’t want to sign an extension anyways. If that’s true that would show the FO in a negative light.

Things will be fine when they do not get Donaldson. Falveyand Co. still have options and plans that we are not privy to. Plenty of bullets to trade if and when they see a need, and plenty of cash. And it will not be a stretch to say that one of our own prospects will turn up HUGH this year.And if two of them, deeper in the playoffs we go.


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