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Twins Daily Roundtable: Sell, Sell, Sell?

Twins Daily Roundtable is a weekly series. As part of this series, a question will be posed to the site’s writers and they will respond in 200 words or less (Some writers don’t like to stick to this limit). This will give readers an opportunity to see multiple points of view and then add their own point of view in the comments section.

July is only days away. This means the non-waiver trade deadline will quickly be approaching. It’s time to separate the contenders from the pretenders. Unfortunately (or fortunately), the American League Central has been full of poor play this season. The Indians, Twins and Tigers are separated by less than 10 games and there is plenty of baseball left to be played so….

This week’s roundtable discussion question is: “With a little over a month until the trade deadline, should the Twins be buyers or sellers?”
Image courtesy of Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
John Bonnes
Neither. They ARE neither. Because in order to be a buyer or a seller, there needs to be a marketplace. There isn’t.

You’re anxious to turn the page on this season. I get it. Believe me, as someone who follows the team obsessively, runs a Twins web site and talks weekly on a Twins podcast, it’s been a frustrating three months. But declaring the season is over provides no practical value. It just makes us feel a little less personally invested in the year.

Maybe, in three weeks, when the All-Star break is over, a marketplace will exist, and the Twins will need to choose. If their struggles continue, they’ll be sellers. But even then, don’t expect a cornucopia of prospects to be coming their way. They don’t have any of the premier veterans on the market, so they’re likely to get premier prospects in return.

Until then, like it or not, this year is a competitive window for this franchise. I’d encourage you to personally invest another month in this team. I assure you that the management, the coaches and the players certainly are.

Seth Stohs
In my opinion, the Twins need to make all moves that they think will put them into contention by about July 20th. At that point, you evaluate where they are compared to Cleveland.

If they had to make that decision today, and fortunately they don't, they would be sellers. The odds indicate that they will be sellers at the deadline at which point a lot of guys could be on the market.

Nick Nelson
At this rate, they sure look like sellers, although that could potentially change within the next few weeks. The trouble is that the Twins don't have much at this time in terms of appealing assets to move, so it's hard to envision any major haul coming back even if they're willing to unload anyone nonessential to the big picture. Brian Dozier's sluggish first half has torpedoed his trade value. Lance Lynn will have takers but won't net a ton. Fernando Rodney's been great, but non-elite relievers don't bring back top prospects (Matt Capps notwithstanding).

Eduardo Escobar is perhaps the most intriguing candidate, as an All Star candidate on the last year of his deal, but Minnesota is probably best served holding onto him and extending a qualifying offer after the season.

Cody Christie
The AL Central might be the weakest division in baseball so it’s hard to call the Twins out of the race. That being said, Cleveland seems to have started to figure it out after a slow start. Minnesota hasn’t been able run off a long streak of winning baseball. Cleveland should easily win the division but they have flaws and this could make them vulnerable.

If the front office is making the decision today, the club is sellers and the team has a lot of pieces that could be dealt. With many players on one-year deals, Minnesota could reset the roster and restock the farm system for the next decade.

There were high hopes at the beginning of the season, so it’s depressing to think the team could be sellers. Flashback to last year, the Twins were in selling mode as the deadline approached. Then the team found a nice groove and ended up in the playoffs.

Anything is possible but it seems like it’s time to sell.

Ted Schwerzler
I don't think it's fair to answer this question with so much time yet before the trade deadline. Realistically Falvey and Levine set the roster up for success this offseason, and it has underperformed as a whole. With the games remaining prior to the deadline, the Twins need to show some consistent life.

The Indians have real warts, and I don't believe they're going to run away with anything. Given the amount of one year deals, the Twins are well positioned to act either way. They can let their play in the weeks ahead dictate how they should attack the deadline.

Tom Froemming
Right now, you'd have to say sellers. The depressing part is most of their obvious pieces to move are having down years.

You can't expect guys like Brian Dozier, Lance Lynn or Zach Duke to fetch much of a return right now. The same can be said for Logan Morrison and Fernando Rodney, who both have a team option for 2019.

Who does that leave?

Taking emotion out of it, Eduardo Escobar could be a great sell high option, but in my heart I want the team to extend him with a 15-year deal. OK, that's an exaggeration, but from a fan's perspective I'd be really bummed if they sent him packing.

With those being the options, I'm not expecting the front office to make a move one way or another until the week of the trade deadline.

Jeremy Nygaard
I can't imagine the Twins buying at the deadline. What would be the point?

If they decide not to sell, they should stand pat... but not buy.

They should sell. Anyone scheduled to be a free agent should be on the block. Brian Dozier is playing his way out of getting a qualifying offer, so prospect would be better than nothing. Lance Lynn, in my opinion, has to be traded, especially if he continues to work back to his old self. Team needs a lefty reliever? Zach Duke has to be available. I would pay - not personally, but as the Twins - the rest of Joe Mauer's salary to give him a chance to win a title this year (and in return for that money, ask for a decent prospect).

And moving any of those guys only give opportunities to other prospects. Moving Dozier allows at-bats for Nick Gordon. Trading Lynn opens a rotation spot for either of Mejia or Gonsalves. Exit Duke, enter Moya. Or Jay. Mauer's at-bats could be absorbed by many players.

I'd also look at moving Morrison, Rodney and potentially Santana. In addition to those three with options, the team has only three other players (Castro, Reed, Pineda) under contract for next year. Moving guys now would be more of a reload and less of a rebuild; the nucleus of the team would remain under control.

Steve Lein
The Cleveland Indians are finally starting to pull away in the division, a wild card is even further off, and the Twins haven’t sniffed a .500 record in over a month. Unless a drastic turnaround happens, like immediately, they should be sellers.

Unfortunately, the reason they’re in this position now is a direct result of the performances from some of those whom they should sell. Lance Lynn has rebounded nicely and could fetch something decent for a rental but the other guys with only one year on their deals, like Brian Dozier and Logan Morrison, have fallen flat and Ervin Santana has yet to throw a pitch this season. Fernando Rodney might net enough where selling him makes sense too.

If you’re hoping to get anything beyond a B-level prospect though, that’s going to mean selling someone like Eddie Rosario or Eduardo Escobar as part of something bigger. But they’re really the only position players who have earned their money this season and are the types I’d want to keep around.
So, while I think they should sell all those rental type pieces to clear the roster space if anything, I’m not holding my breath on any stellar returns.

If you missed any of the previous roundtable discussions, here are the links:
Fixing the Offense
Romero’s Rotation Spot
Top Prospect Timelines
Minnesota’s All-Star Selection
Extension Candidates

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60 Comments

A loss tonight puts the Twins closer to the White Sox than the Indians.
Are they mathematically eliminated? No, but neither are the Royals. This isn't a contender. We have the 10th worst record in baseball. Being in a terrible division doesn't change that.

After today, the Twins will be 34-42. We are 16-13 in the division.18-29 against the rest.

The real question is - who wants any of these players?Trades need two teams (at least).What is the demand for these bombers?Who among any contention teams needs what we have.Take out the Eddies and we are a AAA team playing in the majors.  

Nice sentiment to give Mauer a shot at a world series, but what world series contenders want a 256 hitter at 1B who does not hit HRs and is still suffering concussion symptoms?  

 

I look at this as past time to move on without giving up.Bring up more young players and give them playing time.Lynn (and I am not convinced he has truly turned it around) and Morrison are not part of next years and the replacements certainly can't help meeting their standards.Start alternating Dozier's replacement into the lineup.  

 

Our young stars with the exception of Rosario have taken a step backward, our veteran signings have helped us be mediocre.Keep moving forward until we have the parts we want in the lineup.

    • Monkeypaws and caninatl04 like this

 

In order to sell, you have to have something someone wants to buy.

 

Sadly, that pretty much sums up where we are at right now.

Sadly, that pretty much sums up where we are at right now.


That's where we've been since 2012.
    • Twins33, mikelink45, wsnydes and 2 others like this

 

At some point, the Twins need to move pieces for anything pissible so they can advance pieces that may reflect the future.

Okay, I realize that was a typo in that sentence ... but somehow that strikes me as a very appropriate comment! Yes, we should unload any deadwood we can and hope if creates opportunities for someone new that might potentially have a positive impact on this team.

    • mikelink45 likes this

Unless something very crazy good happens, they must be sellers.This is not because we have players who will bring back amazing prospects.This is because we need to be sure the correct people are playing.Morrison, Grossman, Dozier, Adrianza, Duke, Lynn and Rogers will not be on our team next year.Unless absolutely necessary, they should not play in the latter part of the season.Give reps to younger people if you can.If some of the above can be moved for even minimal return, it makes that easier to do.  

    • mikelink45 likes this

 

I don't think Gordon, Gonsalves and Kiriloff is even a starting point for Realmuto, let alone enough.

 

It would get it in a heartbeat I think.Does position player who only has 2 more years of control get more than 3 Top 100 prospects? I could defintely be wrong.

    • caninatl04 likes this

Sorry, but if you cannot see that this team isn't any good and that their minor league system isn't any good, then I don't think you have much of an opinion.
Lets look at facts the way they really are rather than the way you want them to be.


Everyone gets an opinion.

Some of us are smart enough to diagnose why we are loosing and figure potential fixes. While they may or may not work being defeated at this point makes me wonder why that person would bother to be a fan at all if they give up at the first sign of struggle to the top. They must be french...
    • 70charger likes this

 

Everyone gets an opinion.

Some of us are smart enough to diagnose why we are loosing and figure potential fixes. While they may or may not work being defeated at this point makes me wonder why that person would bother to be a fan at all if they give up at the first sign of struggle to the top. They must be french...

 

What are you even talking about??????THE FIRST SIGN? You must be joking.Except for two fluke seasons, this team has sucked big time for almost a decade. In the previous 7 seasons this team has lost 92 or more games 5 times.We are playing at a 90 loss level this season. 

 

And, as I have pointed out, the entire roster sucks.We don't even have players that have any value to "Sell, sell, sell". And with all of this flailing, if you look at our farm system, the pantry is virtually bare. We are calling up guys like Bobby Wilson and Taylor Motter (combined .118 batting average).  

 

WHen you go on a streak and lose 99, 96, 96, 92, Fluke, 103, fluke, and 90+ pace the first signs should have been 5 years ago.And, the as I have pointed out, one of the real problems with this situation is that with all of that losing this team dradted at the top of each round in the draft.  

 

Unfortunately, the real prescription is more losing. 

 

Get Nick Gordon up to the big leagues.Let him play some SS and 2B at the MLB level and develop.Get LeMonte Ward up and see if he can bring his professional hitting approach to the big league level and perhaps we will have a true leadoff guy with a bit of pop.Get Willians Astudillo up.I don't know if he can catch, but at least he is not an embarrasement at the plate.Give him a chance.

 

I would even argue that they really need ot look at Brent Rooker and I would strongly consider Luis Arraez all the way from A+ who started slow coming back from a knee injury (.132 in April, .241 in May, and .442 in June) but now is pounding the ball like he did in previous years.

 

Instead of sending Romero down, give him the ball and let him pitch at the MLB level and work on those things he needs to work on. Stephen Gonslaves should be up with the team too.Instead of signing a 38 year old Matt Belisle, give John Curtiss a shot. If he is worse than Belisle's 12.60 ERA then we have a good understanding going forward he really isn't going to be a long term contributor to this team, jsut like how 38 (Belisle), 35 (Duke) and 41 year old(Rodney) pitchers are also not going to be long term contributors.Instead of these guys, get Luke Bard a last shot and let Gaberiel Moya get some experience in the set up role.  

 

If these guys fail, they fail.Big deal.The Belisles and Wilsons are failing too.Losing and failure are information to guide the team forward.If Bard isn't good enough, then you know and can plan going forward with that information.

 

But anyone who wants to go see this team play when JJ Berrios is not pitching must like punishment.

 

 

    • Mike Sixel and mikelink45 like this

What are you even talking about?????? THE FIRST SIGN? You must be joking. Except for two fluke seasons, this team has sucked big time for almost a decade. In the previous 7 seasons this team has lost 92 or more games 5 times. We are playing at a 90 loss level this season.

And, as I have pointed out, the entire roster sucks. We don't even have players that have any value to "Sell, sell, sell". And with all of this flailing, if you look at our farm system, the pantry is virtually bare. We are calling up guys like Bobby Wilson and Taylor Motter (combined .118 batting average).

WHen you go on a streak and lose 99, 96, 96, 92, Fluke, 103, fluke, and 90+ pace the first signs should have been 5 years ago. And, the as I have pointed out, one of the real problems with this situation is that with all of that losing this team dradted at the top of each round in ...


Past performance does not guarantee future results. The pitching is slightly better than league average. Our offense has cratered for all kinds of reasons from injury, suspension, to needing a redo. 2 of our offensive pieces are comming back. We can literally sign a player to push our .190 hitting DH for league minimum. We can aquire a C for a prospect probably a B-\C+prospect. We have lots of those.

If we can turn it around with that, GREAT! It will turn around into a fun season. If not we can sell at the end of July/ August lots of time to give up. Yes our odds arent great, but they are not zero either. But i guess some just like to quit without trying.

 

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The pitching is slightly better than league average. Our offense has cratered for all kinds of reasons from injury, suspension, to needing a redo. 2 of our offensive pieces are comming back. We can literally sign a player to push our .190 hitting DH for league minimum. We can aquire a C for a prospect probably a B-\C+prospect. We have lots of those.

If we can turn it around with that, GREAT! It will turn around into a fun season. If not we can sell at the end of July/ August lots of time to give up. Yes our odds arent great, but they are not zero either. But i guess some just like to quit without trying.

 

 

that last sentence is very unfair.....I'd say that the FO needs to be realistic at this point, and get what they can for guys that won't be here next year or the year after. It's not about not trying, it's about being realistic. Businesses don't run on hope.

    • Sconnie and wsnydes like this

 

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The pitching is slightly better than league average. Our offense has cratered for all kinds of reasons from injury, suspension, to needing a redo. 2 of our offensive pieces are comming back. We can literally sign a player to push our .190 hitting DH for league minimum. We can aquire a C for a prospect probably a B-\C+prospect. We have lots of those.

If we can turn it around with that, GREAT! It will turn around into a fun season. If not we can sell at the end of July/ August lots of time to give up. Yes our odds arent great, but they are not zero either. But i guess some just like to quit without trying.

 

There isn't anything that can be done with this team to make it competitive unless you think last seasons fluke meant we were competitive.  

 

And, as I at least alluded to, if our pitching is slightly better than league average, it is because we have stocked it full of 35+ year old relievers who after thsi season probably will not be available. I get that we can keep up the mediocrity by stocking it back up with 35+ year old arms to limp through another season.But, this gets us no where.This team is not going to "FREE AGENT" itself to success.

The same holds for the .190 hitting DH who was just that kind of signing to begin with and finding a catcher that can actually hit.  

 

Following YOUR ideas (and the FO's too) is what is really quitting.Just plugging mediocrity after mediocrity in the lineup and hope your fans don't notice.The NON QUITTING option is to get the prospects up in place of these short term veterans.Take the lumps now.Find out who can play and who cannot.Keep the guys who can and fill in the holes.Maybe Buxton and Sano are guys who can.SO get them back up and if Sano still demonstrates he doesn't care, move on.

 

It worked in 1982 and this is the approach this team needs to take now.  

    • Mike Sixel likes this

 

Past performance does not guarantee future results. The pitching is slightly better than league average. Our offense has cratered for all kinds of reasons from injury, suspension, to needing a redo. 2 of our offensive pieces are comming back. We can literally sign a player to push our .190 hitting DH for league minimum. We can aquire a C for a prospect probably a B-\C+prospect. We have lots of those.

If we can turn it around with that, GREAT! It will turn around into a fun season. If not we can sell at the end of July/ August lots of time to give up. Yes our odds arent great, but they are not zero either. But i guess some just like to quit without trying.

I appreciate the optimism, but in order to turn things around for this season they've got to play as well collectively as they have played poorly collectively thus far.Sano isn't coming back up anytime soon.Buxton isn't hitting AAA pitching.Dozier, Morrison and Kepler have been ice cold.We still don't know what we're going to see from Mauer the rest of the season.All of those things will need to turn a complete 180 in order to make this team a legitimate threat.One or two of those guys might come around, but they need all of to do it.And they'll need to do it at the same time, and then sustain it for the rest of the season.I don't want to speak for anyone else, but I see that as pretty unlikely.  

 

Of course, all of that assumes that the pitching holds true and Rosario and Escobar continue their level of play.That's a lot to ask.

    • Mike Sixel likes this

 

I appreciate the optimism, but in order to turn things around for this season they've got to play as well collectively as they have played poorly collectively.Sano isn't coming back up anytime soon.Buxton isn't hitting AAA pitching.Dozier, Morrison and Kepler have been ice cold.We still don't know what we're going to see from Mauer the rest of the season.All of those things will need to turn a complete 180 in order to make this team a legitimate threat.One or two of those guys might come around, but they need all of to do it.And they'll need to do it at the same time, and then sustain it for the rest of the season.I don't want to speak for anyone else, but I see that as pretty unlikely.  

 

Of course, all of that assumes that the pitching holds true and Rosario and Escobar continue their level of play.That's a lot to ask.

 

And Cleveland has to play something like 5-7 games under the rest of the way.....Or the West Coast teams fighting for the WC need to all three collapse.

    • wsnydes likes this

Two comments;

 

First, trading Joe Mauer does no preclude resigning him in the off-season.Some teams would value a high OBP left handed bat.

 

Second, and this is consistent with the what-if-we're-selling-what-no-one-wants-to-buy crowd, what might be plausible returns (and from whom) for some of the names oft-mentioned above? 

 

Who are potential buyers?

I see zero chance Mauer is dealt.

 

And, I don't think many people here will be excited about the trade returns they do get, if any, from trades. Unless they bundle a couple players together, I see ok prospects coming back.

    • Dman and Doctor Wu like this

It would get it in a heartbeat I think. Does position player who only has 2 more years of control get more than 3 Top 100 prospects? I could defintely be wrong.


But they aren't all consensus top 100 prospects. All 3 get on some, don't make the cut on others. And they are all towards the bottom of the top 100 when they do.
Miami will want at least one top 30'ish prospect to start, then negotiate the remaining pieces from there.
I doubt there is any dialogue that doesn't include Royce Lewis.
Lucroy brought 2 top 50 prospects, with 1 less year of team control, I believe.

 

I see zero chance Mauer is dealt.

 

And, I don't think many people here will be excited about the trade returns they do get, if any, from trades. Unless they bundle a couple players together, I see ok prospects coming back.

 

If we are not going to get a good return on trades for prospects, why sell?are you wanting to gun for draft position?is that a fun way to go for the summer when we should have a competitive team day in and day out?(that is when Buxton and Polanco returns, we find a hitting C and Morrison picks up or we replace him with someone who does.

 

If we are not going to get a good return on trades for prospects, why sell?are you wanting to gun for draft position?is that a fun way to go for the summer when we should have a competitive team day in and day out?(that is when Buxton and Polanco returns, we find a hitting C and Morrison picks up or we replace him with someone who does.

 

because getting something for Dozier, or Rodney or Escobar or any other FA is better than nothing, and you can get lucky. Or, they can be used as part of packages. 

 

I'm not trading anyone under control past 2019, and probably not anyone not a FA this year, but I'd listen on Reed (not sure who else is a FA after 19 other than Castro).

 

they don't have a competitive team, imo. 

 

Not tearing down when they could have was a mistake. Standing pat for a few extra moments of fun this summer doesn't help this team in 19 or beyond, and, imo, 18 is gone.

    • Danchat, Sconnie, Dman and 2 others like this

I see zero chance Mauer is dealt.

And, I don't think many people here will be excited about the trade returns they do get, if any, from trades. Unless they bundle a couple players together, I see ok prospects coming back.

I'll take that for the guys that will be free agents after the season though. May as well get something for them.
    • Mike Sixel and clone52 like this

If the Twins go full sell mode, I'll be looking forward to my $5 stub hub seats right behind home plate :)

    • Danchat and spycake like this

 

But they aren't all consensus top 100 prospects. All 3 get on some, don't make the cut on others. And they are all towards the bottom of the top 100 when they do.
Miami will want at least one top 30'ish prospect to start, then negotiate the remaining pieces from there.
I doubt there is any dialogue that doesn't include Royce Lewis.
Lucroy brought 2 top 50 prospects, with 1 less year of team control, I believe.

 

Good point, they'd probably demand Lewis.Hell, I might even do that.

 

The LuCroy trade was basically for a package like Lewis, Gonsalves and and a slightly less prospecty Alex Kiriloff for him.Texas also got the Brewers starting closer back in the deal, so its not quite an even comparison.

 

If we are not going to get a good return on trades for prospects, why sell?are you wanting to gun for draft position?is that a fun way to go for the summer when we should have a competitive team day in and day out?(that is when Buxton and Polanco returns, we find a hitting C and Morrison picks up or we replace him with someone who does.

 

If you aren't going to resign Brian Dozier, Lance Lynn, Zach Duke, Logan Morison or Fernando Rodney after the season, why wouldn't you sell?

    • Mike Sixel, Twins33, Monkeypaws and 3 others like this
Well, I sure don't think they are buyers at this point. Not unless you are hedging bets against Garver and a full return of Castro next season and acquire a catcher. Said move wouldn't recesitate the team this year, but could be part of 2019 and beyond.

If we just control angst for a moment born of frustration and disappointment, 2017 was not an aberration. Nor was this current team assembled poorly. Not everyone has a great year every season. Not every young player is a Trout, Harper, etc, who seems to blossom right out of the gate. With everything from talent, milb production, prospect lists, national write ups and rankings to what we have seen with out or own eyes as well as past performance, NOBODY would state that a team built on Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Sano, Escobar, Dozier, Castro, Morrison and a re-surgant Mauer with an improved pitching staff would play and produce this poorly. NOBODY!

But from ridiculous weather, games wiped out, injuries, suspension, weight gain, rehab, sudden regression, etc, this season has turned in to an almost laughable "what happens next" scenario.

I absolutely agree, after the next 20-30 days, the Twins should be sellers if things don't start to fall in place better and we don't see some sort of surge. And I'm not just talking overtaking Cleveland. I'm talking about good ball, winning ball, and finishing strong. And I agree that anyone not signed beyond this season is fair game for trade, with the exception of Escobar. But to suggest the team should be blown up is kind of ridiculous to me.

Not going to get overly long, or get in to a debate for each and every player, but there could be real arguments...if this team plays better going forward...to keep guys like Rodney and Duke. That doesn't mean you can't make or field calls to see what they would bring, however. Mauer isn't going anywhere, except to retirement if his latest episode can't be overcome. Reed has been an outstanding performer, but has been down lately. Bad season or over used? He has value in trade or to keep. What they need to do is move on from those they truly don't expect to be part of next season and get what they can.

This includes Morrison, most likely, and Dozier, though I hate to see him go, Grossman, Santana and Lynn. Stay away from dumpster diving to finish the season and just cut bait on Belisle.

The team doesn't have to be blown up. But win or lose, there are opportunities to do some selling and build toward 2019 by loading up the Rochester shuttle and take a real look at some guys.

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