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Twins Daily Roundtable: Grading Molitor

Twins Daily Roundtable is a weekly series. As part of this series, a question will be posed to the site’s writers and they will respond in 200 words or less (Some writers don’t like to stick to this limit). This will give readers an opportunity to see multiple points of view and then add their own point of view in the comments section.

Paul Molitor is nearing the end of his fourth season as the Minnesota Twins manager. During his first season, the Twins pushed for a playoff spot into the season’s last weeks. There were over 100 losses in 2016. He won AL Manager of the year in 2017 after the Twins bounced back to earn a Wild Card spot. Now in his fourth season, the club is sitting below the .500 mark.

This week’s roundtable discussion question is: “How would you rank Paul Molitor’s managerial performance? Why?”
Image courtesy of Marilyn Indahl-USA TODAY Sports
Seth Stohs
I think he's doing fine. A manager's role in wins and losses is vastly overstated (wins or losses). As for the lineup, I'd say he does just fine. He mixes it up pretty well and isn't married to certain hitters in certain spots. Bullpen usage is where most find fault. I definitely think he has a tendency to overwork the reliable relievers which, practically, is understandable. But he will need to find a way to trust others to try to keep those top guys from wearing down. He's obviously well respected in the clubhouse, but I don't know what we can really comment on his role in there. We just don't know. A manager can't be at all places. In terms of analytics, he certainly has the people around him that will encourage it.

This is an impossible question to answer with any certainty. Managers usually get too much credit when the team wins, and they get too much of the blame when things go bad.

Tom Froemming
I'd give him a D. We're not at the point where I'm demanding he be fired, but I definitely think the team would be better off with someone else running the show.

I'm happy to see the Twins are bunting much less frequently this year, but I'm still depressed at how inefficiently the bullpen has been managed. There's also no shortage of strange lineup decisions. He seems to have no interest in providing opportunities for younger players and caters to the veterans far too often.

I have a lot of respect for Paul Molitor. He's certainly knows more about baseball than I do, but expertise doesn't always translate to management.

Cody Christie
Expectations were high for the Twins heading into the 2018 season and things haven’t exactly gone as planned. Falvey and Levine seemed to have put together some strong pieces to build off of last season’s playoff run. However, no one could have predicted the lack of production from Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Brian Dozier. There’s little a manager can do if the team’s best players aren’t performing or aren’t even on the roster.

I honestly think the front office will decided to go in a different direction this off-season. I believe Falvey and Levine are going to want to bring in someone younger that fits the mold of “being their guy.” They could give Molitor one more chance to see what he does with the club next year but Minnesota won’t have the likes of Sano and Buxton around forever.

If the time isn’t now, when will it be? Overall grade, C- but he moves to a C+ with extra credit for AL Manager of the Year.

Ted Schwerzler
Molitor was put in a difficult position, but he also hasn’t done himself any favors. This front office likely would’ve hired their own guy had they not been mandated to do otherwise. He saved his skin by winning Manager of the Year in 2017, but he’s continued many of his poor habits this season. Bullpen usage has been questionable, in-game strategy leaves something to be desired, and lineup configuration has been head-scratching at times.

Nothing he’s done has been egregious, but the sum of all parts seems average at best. It’s hard to gauge his relatability to this roster without being in the clubhouse, but I tend to believe there’re better options in that department. On a grading scale, I’d tag him with a C-. Regardless of his three-year deal, which did seem odd, I don’t know that Falvey and Levine won’t move on this winter anyways.

Steve Lein
I'll begin this one by pointing out the cliche that managers get too much of the credit for winning and too much of the blame for losing. The players hit, pitch, and play defense while managers really can only make personnel decisions and have situational influence. But that is where good managers can make their mark.

As far as personnel decisions go, Molitor doesn’t get a passing grade from me. Overuse of bullpen pitchers has quite clearly affected their performance. Platoon advantages have not been utilized enough. At times I've thought it was like he's spinning a roulette wheel with players names on it to figure out the lineup order he'd throw out. The up and down records of his his teams during his tenure also tells me he may not have that special sauce that extracts the best out of most of his players consistently. That's one idea I do think the great managers accomplish.

When it comes to the situational side during a game, outside of his use of the bullpen, I do think Molitor does well. He's embraced shifting on defense, I don't think they've done much bunting, and based on his Hall Of Fame playing career I know he’s seen it all. I trust him to make the correct decisions in that sense.

Overall, I’d rank him around the middle of MLB managers, but his time is running out.

SD Buhr
This is really a tough question.

Obviously, you can’t say Paul Molitor has been an incredibly good manager at this point, based on the results on the field, even though last season’s second half was certainly encouraging.

But I’m not really sure you can lay the lack of success this season purely at his feet, either. While most of us were looking for a strong year as they prepared for spring training, I think if you’d have told us then that Polanco and Santana would each miss the entire first half of the season and Sano and Buxton would spend so little time on the active roster, our expectations might have been more muted. I’m not sure you can blame the manager for not winning more games when those major pieces were absent.

Personally, I’d probably give him an overall grade of C+ and, based on that, I won’t really have any objection whether the front office decides to keep him around or bring in someone new.

If you missed any of the most recent roundtable discussions, here are the links:
Closing Time
Prospect Promotions
Hall of Fame Impact
Baseball in 2028
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296 Comments

As for JP naming the manager? There's an old saying that a lawyer who represents himself has a fool for a client. An owner who is his own GM has a fool for a GM. I would think Falvey would be sending out his resume if he would want to remove Molitor and couldn't. If I was gonna sink or swim in a job, I would want my own guy.
    • ken likes this
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yarnivek1972
Aug 22 2018 07:47 PM

For those posting the players are making dumb plays, what is the Manager to do. Well, I remember Reggie Jackson not chasing down a ball he misplayed. What did Billy Martin do? He ran in a new outfielder and jerked Jackson out of the game in the middle of the inning. That ended up in a fight between the two. Now, I'm not saying that's the thing to do, but a little discipline is needed. Small fines by the players could go on to without us knowing. In the end the Manager puts together the Line-up and handles pitching changes, with a little strategy mixed in.


That works when you have probably a 9 or 10 man pitching staff and therefore 6 or 7 bench players. That becomes extremely difficult to do with a 3 man bench.
    • mikelink45 likes this
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yarnivek1972
Aug 22 2018 07:49 PM

A total system failure will do that to your overall record.

83 wins in 2015
Total System Failure
85 wins last year
?? this year

Shouldn’t Molitor shoulder some of the responsibility for that total system failure?

Were it not for Jim Pohlad publicly saying Molitor was safe, he probably would have been fired two years ago.

More to the point, if it had been Derek Falvey’s decision, he probably would have been fired two years ago.
    • Danchat likes this

As for JP naming the manager? There's an old saying that a lawyer who represents himself has a fool for a client. An owner who is his own GM has a fool for a GM. I would think Falvey would be sending out his resume if he would want to remove Molitor and couldn't. If I was gonna sink or swim in a job, I would want my own guy.


Only 30 GM jobs in the league, and every organization has their quirks. The owner having a close, personal friend as his preference for manager isn't all that bad... You could be reporting into Stuart Sternberg, owner of the Rays!
    • TheLeviathan likes this
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TheLeviathan
Aug 22 2018 08:07 PM

I think it's worth pointing out that the Twins last year over-achieved, made the playoffs, and did a number of things very well after an awful season and the general consensus on this board was to give him little or no credit for that.  Molitor could lead them to a 40-0 record the rest of the way, nearly win the World Series, and there would be many here who would still denigrate him.

 

Perhaps we've lost the ability to be objective and should leave it to the people who actually see what he does day to day. We see a tiny fraction of what a manager does in today's game.

    • Riverbrian, SwainZag, LA VIkes Fan and 2 others like this
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yarnivek1972
Aug 22 2018 08:13 PM

As for JP naming the manager? There's an old saying that a lawyer who represents himself has a fool for a client. An owner who is his own GM has a fool for a GM. I would think Falvey would be sending out his resume if he would want to remove Molitor and couldn't. If I was gonna sink or swim in a job, I would want my own guy.


I would be surprised, no stunned, if 90% of pro team owners didn’t have final say over head coach/manager. That’s literally the public face of the team. He’s the guy in front of the camera before and after almost every game. He is on the sidelines for every game.

Do I have inside info that this is the case? Of course not. And I’ll bet you don’t either. But ask yourself which makes more sense and which is their greater evidence of?

I love this team's fight. They seem to never give up. I'm not sure if that's on Molitor.

 

Naming specific things he does well that I can see on my end of things? I'm not sure of any. Fundamentals are a mess, the lineups are often bizarre (but they've grown on me this year), and his overworking the bullpen is obvious to everyone but him. While it's possible that Hildenberger and Rogers, for example, are streaky, I think their inconsistencies are more likely because of how often he uses them.

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yarnivek1972
Aug 22 2018 08:21 PM
When I am asked how a manager impacts the game, I like to say that a GOOD manager puts his players in position to succeed. He doesn’t, for example, continually use Taylor Rogers against RHB in winnable games.

He also doesn’t do this:


http://www.espn.com/...ameId=380714109
    • wsnydes likes this

 

Here is my beef with Molitor:

 

- He lost the clubhouse.This has been a very unmotivated team.

 

Really? They're playing close games and have won more games than they've lost since the trade deadline. I'd say they're pretty motivated. Last year too. They could simply give up and lose every game after the deadline.

 

Admittedly, it seems to be much moreso in the second half of the season after the front office lights a fire under them. That could be on Molitor. 

    • Dozier's Glorious Hair likes this

Really? They're playing close games and have won more games than they've lost since the trade deadline. I'd say they're pretty motivated. Last year too. They could simply give up and lose every game after the deadline.

Admittedly, it seems to be much moreso in the second half of the season after the front office lights a fire under them. That could be on Molitor.



I think the Playing better as of late is two things. The first is that that new guys and guys up from AAA are playing to stay on the 20 man roster and for starting possitions. Self preservation! The second is Sano and Polanco are back. Your 3 and 4 Hitter in the lineup. That's kind of important. If we had a team full of Vets, I think they would be giving up to a degree, but we have a young team Now!
I am NOT going to grade Molitor. That's not a cop out. It's just being realistic at this point because his actual resume is somewhat incomplete as this season is not done yet, and he has managed 2 largely successful years where the Twins weren't really expected to compete. And we simply don't know how the clubhouse works, or if the FO and Molitor are on the same page, or if there is a disconnect anywhere.

NOT BLAMING MOLITOR:

I am NOT putting blame for Sano or Buxton or Polanco or Santana. There are so many overriding factors involved here, how is he responsible?

I am NOT putting blame on him for Lynn's bad start or Morrison's hip and far below any career numbers.

I get arguments about other teams having issues and injuries. But to me, it's a bit of a straw-man argument because not every team is built the same, or has a AAA brimming with a couple prospects ready to step up and fill in. It's very hard to compare situations. Further, on paper, the moves the FO made were largely lauded, even if an almost comedic amount of issues and poor performance ensued. (Nor am I blaming the FO for those).

WHAT I DO BLAME MOLITOR FOR:

He flatly has over-used various relievers. Maybe some of this rests on the FO. Personally, I thought the Rochester shuttle system worked better last season. Is the pkayers or moves made? But in a long season, you have to trust what you have and look for matchup and opportunities. Once in a while, you may have just let a game go so you can win the next 2. Additionally, I'm not sure he has a natural "feel" for when to pull or insert or stick with a pitcher. I have lauded him at times for sending the SP back out for the next inning. But at times if felt obvious, IMHO, that he shouldn't or should have been pulled more quickly. I also feel he's a bit stubborn about relievers pitching to anyone vs matchups.

I also blame Molitor for lineup construction. To be fair, guys have to produce. And guys can't play ever day, and guys get hit and cold. But why did it take so long for Mauer to supplant Dozier in the #1 spot? If the ONE THING Grossman could do was work a count and get OB, then why wasn't he used at the top of the lineup more often to at least help set the table?

Kelly's teams, and I feel most of Gardenhire's teams, were more fundamentally sound on some of the basics. Even in losing season's. Though, to be honest, I felt this much better in 2017 than 2018. What changed? Most of the same guys were back.

Overall? I don't think Molitor has done that bad of a job. With no previous managing experience, he has lead a rebuilding team to a couple competitive seasons. We've seen some good and entertaining baseball. And yes, his 5th team could even crack .500.

But sometimes, a fit just isn't right. Sometimes, you honestly need change for change sake. You need that so the entire organization, from the FO on down, and the talented guys on the current roster, and those coming up, are hearing a more collective voice and seeing a collective vision.

I won't be angry or upset if Molitor is back. Health, some smart moves, a ton of talent knocking at or approaching the door, and a couple smart moves could have this team well above .500 next season. I just think it might be time for a different voice and approach.
    • Riverbrian, SwainZag and LA VIkes Fan like this

I'm lumping Molitor in with the old school managers.

 

He goes in the same bucket as Mattingly, Baker, Hurdle, Bochy, Showalter, Gibbons, Gardenhire, Renteria and Scioscia. 

 

That may be an impressive group of managers with a lot of major league experience but, those guys aren't the ones I would choose to lead my team. 

 

Give me a Maddon, Roberts, Counsell, Martinez, Cash, Hinch, Bannister or Kapler new school type. 

 

 

 

 

    • nicksaviking, ChrisKnutson and wsnydes like this
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The Wise One
Aug 23 2018 03:55 AM

 

I'm lumping Molitor in with the old school managers.

 

He goes in the same bucket as Mattingly, Baker, Hurdle, Bochy, Showalter, Gibbons, Gardenhire, Renteria and Scioscia. 

 

That may be an impressive group of managers with a lot of major league experience but, those guys aren't the ones I would choose to lead my team. 

 

Give me a Maddon, Roberts, Counsell, Martinez, Cash, Hinch, Bannister or Kapler new school type. 

Martinez has the same team old school Dusty Baker had, the difference he has made is not a good oneMaddon managed a 100 loss team. Additions of talent make you look so much smarter.Just ask Craig Counsel

    • SwainZag, Rigby, Vanimal46 and 1 other like this

I've been on record too many times on these boards railing on the guy. I give him at best a D. Loved Molly as a player, former Gopher, and well-deserved Hall Of Famer. But as a manager of my home team, nope. While it's true, issues like Morrison, Sano, Buxton, Dozier and others woefully under-performing are beyond his purview, the measure of a mgr is putting his team in the best position to compete, despite these challenges. That means not putting slumping players in the middle or top of the order and just leaving them there. 

 

Bullpen, lineups, in-game decisions, lack of fundamentals, all of those issues and more have been debated to death here, and all of them show the mgr lacking. My latest case in point-a conversation related on-air by Dick recently, in which he queried Molly about which players on the roster he trusted to get a bunt down. His answer: Two. My question: WHY ONLY TWO?!? My God, if you have a fundamental problem on your team, get those coaches and players moving in the direction to fix it! The baserunning lately? The brain-farts in the field? Why is this stuff not being addressed?!?

 

And here's the kicker-- it's not a season in which we're going to be catching Cleveland. That has been apparent for weeks now, if not months. Molly's complete lack of faith in younger players, and unwillingness to give them a decent shot when called up is not the way to move forward. I'm sick of seeing quick hooks, sick of seeing young guys called up and then sitting on their butts for days on end, sick of seeing guys, when they do get a chance to play, wildly out of position! (Astudillo, anyone?)

 

Lastly, where is the fire? No, not everybody needs to be a rah-rah cheerleader, but during a game, that dugout looks like a morgue, and Molly looks like a disinterested spectator. I want to see someone in that dugout next season, encouraging some emotion and passion in there. Heck, even if you have to fake it, at least the team can LOOK like they care.

 

I wanna see someone like Ozzie in there next year. 

 

It shouldn't be the goal, but it's realistic. Do you honestly think Molitor is getting fired this season if the team finishes around .500?

The 'hands-off' owner will most likely view that as a success after years of terrible baseball.

Regardless how we personally feel about this team's performance, Molitor could finish with a .500 or better record 3 out of 4 seasons.

That's just it. He perhaps should be fired, but I don't see it happening either. The worst part of that is that it wasted 4+ years of what was supposed to be the young, up and coming core of the future of this franchise.

 

Two things about his bullpen management.

First, fans from every team rag on how thier managers utilize the pen. Just need to spend some time on other boards to see that.

Second, we shouldn't pretend he was given a lot of talent in the bullpen to begin with.

I agree with both of these things. My issue with the usage revolves more around how often guys are used (and not used) than which pitcher he uses in a given situation. He tends to run his best pieces into the ground to the point where they're no longer effective. At that point, I don't really care what other managers do, it's on him to figure out a way to keep his players effective.

    • Mike Sixel, Twins33 and Shaitan like this

 

Martinez has the same team old school Dusty Baker had, the difference he has made is not a good oneMaddon managed a 100 loss team. Additions of talent make you look so much smarter.Just ask Craig Counsel

 

I like to think of myself as somewhat reasonable and I really try not to talk in absolutes when I'm standing hip deep in nuance, so I'm hoping that I'm not giving the impression that I think new school managers are guaranteed playoff teams every year. :)

 

Maddon's 100 loss year aside... I prefer the new school manager over the old school manager every day of the week and twice on Sunday. 

 

There is no doubt that Baker had a much better year in 2017 than Martinez had this year. I still prefer the Martinez style or what I assume is the Martinez style because of his place in the Maddon tree. 

 

I did ask Counsell... BTW... He told me to let you know that you spelled his name wrong.:)

 

He also said that you are right, Managers are always happy with talent infusions but he also thinks it is important to not go down with the ship when the talent isn't performing, he says it is ok to play Ryan Braun less when players pulled off the waiver wire like Jesus Aguilar are playing better. He says it is OK to play Jonathan Schoop less, if it isn't working out.:)

 

I was also amazed that my call went straight through to him at 5 in the morning.:)

 

 

    • jimmer likes this

 

Shouldn’t Molitor shoulder some of the responsibility for that total system failure?

Were it not for Jim Pohlad publicly saying Molitor was safe, he probably would have been fired two years ago.

More to the point, if it had been Derek Falvey’s decision, he probably would have been fired two years ago.

It was Falvey's decision last off season and he gave him a 3 year extension.If the Pohlad's made him give him the extension, then it's shows he not a strong GM.

 

Molitor is an okay manager, but he doesn't pick the players on the roster or is in charge of player development.

    • jimmer likes this

Rating managers is such an inexact science. As others have noted, it's nearly impossible to measure with any sort of accuracy. I was also a huge Atlanta Braves fan a few decades back and watching Bobby Cox manage games used to drive me nuts. Most people thought he was some sort of genius, but I always thought his decisions were very puzzling if not maddening. If he hadn't have had so many teams loaded with talent I don't think he would be the great manager that people seem to think he was.

 

I'm sort of in the middle of the pack regarding Molitor's managing ability. Don't hate, don't love him. I thinkhe does a good enough job but has a few weak points too. That said, I don't think any manager could have done much better with this year's raggedy team and the variety of injuries and woeful performances that have occurred.

I don't see how anyone can describe Molitor as anything but a disaster and if he's back next year I'll start calling for Levine and Falvey's heads. 

 

Molitor has been given strong talent and in two of the last three years, his teams have been dumpster fires. If you don't think a manager should be blamed for that, then there's nothing a manager can be blamed for. His players - rookies, vets, starters, relievers, position players - have all looked lost or unprepared. He has not demonstrated any ability to manage and develop young players and likely slowed their development. He's thrown young guys under the bus, overused bullpen arms, refuses to defend his players. I have no idea why anyone would think he should still be managing this team. 

"I don't see how anyone can describe Molitor as anything but a disaster and if he's back next year I'll start calling for Levine and Falvey's heads.I don't see how anyone can describe Molitor as anything but a disaster and if he's back next year I'll start calling for Levine and Falvey's heads."

 

I would go one notch higher than "disaster" but I totally agree, and always have, that Molitor is not a good manager, especially for a perpetual work in progress like the Twins.

Hall of Fame players don't make good managers for multiple reasons.

Managers of marginal teams especially need to project a winning mind set from the dugout and be the face of the team's spirit. They need to be animated and demonstrate that they are in every game and in it to win. Molitor could be a mannequin in the dugout and no one would notice the difference.

Twins under current regime seem to want managers who simply don't make waves. Just be quiet, take your $2mil salary, and go home at the end of the season.

I like the "special sauce" comment. It's not the most analytical of terms, but I get what it means. Think of a coach like Bill Belichick. Like him or hate him, there is no denying that he is a very effective coach. After all, he was able to get Randy Moss to behave. Coaches like that can get consistently high-level production from less-talented players (and of course, having Tom Brady running the show makes a difference too!)

 

Paul Molitor's career as a manager has been saved by two really good months, May 2015 and August 2017. May 2015 was the only springboard back to "perceived" relevance that year, while August 2017 was really what propelled the team back to the postseason (albeit for just one day.)

 

I have long felt, though I know my opinion means nothing, that Molitor has never really been Falvine's "guy." I believe they would like to be a more analytically-driven organization, yet Paul Molitor is still has some roots in old-school thinking. Molitor has shown the ability to overcome some of that, but it is difficult to ask a Hall-of-Famer in his sixties to change his ways.

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Tom Froemming
Aug 23 2018 08:32 AM

 

I would be surprised, no stunned, if 90% of pro team owners didn’t have final say over head coach/manager. That’s literally the public face of the team. He’s the guy in front of the camera before and after almost every game. He is on the sidelines for every game.

I think this point is something that gets overlooked a lot from a fan's perspective, but I'm sure this is a huge factor in who an organization chooses to manage. And to that point, I think Paul Molitor is very good. Also, if anything, the Twins' "brand" is elevated by being connected to a Hall of Fame player from Minnesota. I don't think you could say the same kind of thing about, say, Derek Shelton or a lot of other potential replacements.

    • Riverbrian likes this
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diehardtwinsfan
Aug 23 2018 08:50 AM

 

I think this point is something that gets overlooked a lot from a fan's perspective, but I'm sure this is a huge factor in who an organization chooses to manage. And to that point, I think Paul Molitor is very good. Also, if anything, the Twins' "brand" is elevated by being connected to a Hall of Fame player from Minnesota. I don't think you could say the same kind of thing about, say, Derek Shelton or a lot of other potential replacements.

I don't think it's Paul's job to increase the brand, and I'd argue that managing well will do more the Twins brand than a great interview. I don't doubt his baseball savvy, so to speak. He's forgotten more about the sport than most of us will ever learn.

 

That said, I don't think he's above criticism. Yeah, every manager probably gets criticized to some extent by their team's local TwinsDaily, but I do think his criticism is warranted right now. He isn't consistently putting his team in the best place to win, and he poorly manages his pen. Hildy and Reed were being overused in the spring and are paying for it right now.... and I don't think his impact in terms of wins/losses is overrated. 

 

I think this point is something that gets overlooked a lot from a fan's perspective, but I'm sure this is a huge factor in who an organization chooses to manage. And to that point, I think Paul Molitor is very good. Also, if anything, the Twins' "brand" is elevated by being connected to a Hall of Fame player from Minnesota. I don't think you could say the same kind of thing about, say, Derek Shelton or a lot of other potential replacements.

 

If Derek Shelton helps the Twins win a World Series or two, that will elevate the Twins' brand much more than having a Minnesotan Hall of Famer as their manager


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