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The Minnesota Twins are in store for a starting rotation overhaul this offseason with only Jose Berrios and Martin Perez under contract....
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2019/20 Off-season Manager Openings

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With the season winding down, let's talk about what manager spots will be open this winter. Already open: Kansas City - Ned Yost retirin...
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Front Page: Twins Daily 2019 Award: Pitcher of the Year

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 11:03 PM
For most of the past decade, the Minnesota Twins have had one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball. Pick a meaningful statistic for p...
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JOB OPENING: TC Bear

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Which TD member is going to step up and wear the costume? Squirrel? Chief? North?
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Front Page: Twins AFL Report - Week 4: Lewis Named Fall S...

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Week four of the AFL season was likely the most interesting to the casual prospect follower, as it featured the circuit’s all-star showca...
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Twins ALDS Game 3 Recap: Twins Season Ends in Heartbreak

The long awaited postseason return to Target Field was met with some mixed emotions, as the Twins brought a 2-0 series deficit back from New York, and were suddenly on the brink of elimination. The Twins gave themselves plenty of chances to give this crowd a reason to erupt, but time and time again they came up short in the clutch, going a dreadful 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position. In the end, the Twins dropped their 16th consecutive postseason game by a score of 5-1, ending the season for the Bomba Squad.
Image courtesy of © David Berding-USA TODAY Sports
Box Score
Odorizzi: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 65.9% strikes (54 of 82 pitches)
Home Runs: Rosario (1)
Multi-Hit Games: Rosario (3-for-4, 2B, HR), Arraez (2-for-4, 2B)
WPA of +0.1: Rosario .110, Cron .104
WPA of -0.1: Sano -.165, Kepler -.139, Gonzalez -.118, Cruz -.112, Polanco -.108, Garver -.101

Here's A Look At Today's Win Probability Chart
Attached Image: vs Yankees 10-7-2019.PNG
(Chart via Fangraphs)

Despite being down in the series 2-0, Twins were amped at the start of the game, and Jake Odorizzi gave them something to cheer about in the top of the first. After striking out DJ LeMahieu to start the ballgame, Odorizzi appeared to get Aaron Judge to fly out to Eddie Rosario in right for two quick outs. However, Judge was awarded first base after catcher’s interference was called. That was no problem for Odorizzi, as he came back and got Brett Gardner to strike out and Edwin Encarnacion to fly out to end the inning.

Odorizzi wasn’t able to keep the Yankees off the board for long, however, as Gleyber Torres hit a fly ball that just cleared the wall, and Jake Cave’s glove, in left. Rocco Baldelli went out and asked the umpires to review the home run for fan interference, and while a fan did reach over the railing and made contact with the ball, it was clearly already over the fence, along with Cave’s glove, before the fan touched it. Luckily for the Twins, the home run came with nobody on base, which feels like a rare occurrence for the Yankees against the Twins of late.

The Twins gave themselves an excellent opportunity to get on the scoreboard themselves in the bottom of the second. Eddie Rosario drove a pitch about six inches above the zone deep off the top of the right-center field wall for a lead off double, narrowly missing a home run. After a Mitch Garver walk, and a Luis Arraez single, the Twins had the bases loaded and nobody out. However, as was the narrative all season long, the Twins failed to get the job done with the bases loaded, thanks to a Miguel Sano popup, and strikeouts from Marwin Gonzalez and Jake Cave.

Gio Urshela led off the Yankee third with a blopper that dropped in front a Jake Cave, who inexplicably laid out for the baseball, coming up a few feet short, and allowing the ball to get past him, turning a routine single into a lead off double for Urshela. Urshela was able to advance to third on a DJ LeMahieu ground out, and looked like he might be stranded there after Aaron Judge struck out. However, Brett Gardner came through with a two-out single that went right past a shifted Miguel Sano, giving the Yankees a 2-0 lead.

After singles from Jorge Polanco and Eddie Rosario, the Twins had another scoring chance with two on and two out, for Mitch Garver, in the bottom of the third. After getting ahead in the count 3-0, Garver took what was pretty clearly ball four high, however, umpire Gary Cederstrom didn’t see it that way, calling it a strike. After that, Luis Severino was able to battle back and strike out Garver to end the inning.

Jake Odorizzi did his job in the fourth and fifth innings, by keeping the Yankees off the board and working two pretty clean innings. Overall, for the night, Odorizzi earned a tip of the cap for doing his job by limiting the Yankees to just two runs across five innings, keeping the Twins in the game into the later innings.

Luis Arraez got yet another Twins rally attempt going in the bottom of the sixth, when he drilled a one-out double that split the gap in left-center field. Miguel Sano followed that up with good at-bat, working the count full before driving a ball that left the bat at 107.9 MPH, toward the wall in right, but Aaron Judge used all of his 6’8” frame to reach up and snare the ball out of midair. Marwin Gonzalez followed that up by driving a flyball high into the Minnesota sky, but that ball came up just shy of the fence, as Judge made the catch on the warning track to end the Twins sixth.

The Yankees added to their lead in the top of the seventh after yet another clutch hit off the bat of Didi Gregorius. Gleyber Torres started the inning with a ringing double off of Taylor Rogers. Then with one out, Gregorius ripped a single down the first base line, bringing around Torres to extend the Yankee lead to three.

It took a long, and I mean long, time but the Twins were finally able to get on the board thanks to this Eddie Rosario blast to lead off the bottom of the eighth.



The Yankees tacked on a couple more runs in the ninth to extend their lead to four in the top of the ninth. Cameron Maybin took Sergio Romo deep, with what looked like a lazy fly ball that just cleared the wall in left. They tacked on their fifth, and final, run of the game, thanks to, you guessed it, yet another RBI off the bat of Didi Gregorius.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Twins got themselves a little rally going in the bottom of the ninth, getting each of the first two hitters on to lead off the inning. However, the ninth ended in the same way as every other Twins rally of the ballgame. Max Kepler picked up the first out of the inning, by striking out three straight sliders from Aroldis Chapman. Jorge Polanco then lined a ball up the middle that appeared destined for a base hit until Didi Gregorius grabbed the ball, and with it the Twins hopes and dreams. The Twins season came to an end with Nelson Cruz at the plate looking at strike three right down the middle.

The Twins ended the game going just 3-for-9 on balls put in play over 100 MPH. Those nine batted balls had an average expected batting average of .612. Instead, the Twins got just over half of that, and of course all the ones that didn’t drop for a hit were the ones hit in the highest leverage spots, but hey that’s baseball.

Postgame with Baldelli:



Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:

Attached Image: 10-7-2019 vs Yankees.PNG

ALDS Game Recaps:
Twins ALDS Game 2 Recap: Nothing Works, Twins Lose 12th Straight To Yankees
Twins ALDS Game 1 Recap: Bad Defense, Questionable Management Leads to Loss

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110 Comments

 

But you're not playing all teams from the other divisions; you're playing the best. Our winning percentage against "winning" teams was below .500. 

 

And the Red Sox were a good team who are saddeled in a division with two great teams. If you traded the two Sox teams, I would wager that you would have seen more wins by the Red Sox and fewer by the White Sox. 

 

The numbers you've posted are interesting, but for this discussion who we did against divisions writ large is unimportant. How we did against playoff teams is, and the Yankees and Rays did a number on us while we got a series win against the 'Stros. 

 

I think there's a good analog to my college team, Villanova. The Big East is good competition, but it's not the Big 10 or the ACC. And 2016 and 2018 excepted, it shows in the tournament. 

 

And most every college fanbase except probably Duke and Carolina would be overjoyed with that 2016 and 2018 run.But you find a way to crap on it.

Two things that concerned me about this team all the way back in July ended up coming to fruition in the playoffs:

 

--Rocco's lack of being able to manage a pitching staff.The examples have been discussed ad infinitum in this thread already so no sense in repeating them.This is the playoffs and you have to go with your absolute best on the mound, not some silly 'rotation' that worked in the regular season.Stashak had no business being out there in Game 1 and Dobnak should not have started Game 2.I was fine with him starting Game 3 at home but not in that crucible of Yankee Stadium.

 

--Hitting all these home runs is great but it won't win you playoff games.The lack of situational hitting throughout the regular season was annoying (despite the high placement in RISP stats).The at-bats in the playoffs are a lot more pressure-filled.The Twins came up extra tiny when it mattered most time and time and time again.

 

That being said, I hope that this season is one that can be built on rather than a cute one-off.But for that to happen, Falvine is gonna have to pick up at least 1, if not 2, front-line, high-end starters.If the starters can match the quality of hitting, then they'll be built more for a playoff run.But to attract those FA starters, they better make sure that guys like Cruz are back for another bomba run.

Photo
Aerodeliria
Oct 08 2019 07:42 PM

 

Not leaving Berrios in to start the 5th in game 1 (after only 88 pitches and a 1-2-3 4th on 12) with the game tied, and the pitchers he didn't use in a close and tied game, and starting the Uber driver for game 2 instead of a professional like Odorizzi.......... some of the managerial/front office choices I will never forgive or forget. Some process. 

 

Snow forecast for the Twin Cities this weekend? That would have been lovely.

It was like I was in the twilight zone to be honest. The crazy thing is that it seemed like Rocco was trying to mimic Boone and the Yankees' strategy. Pulling a pitcher after five is the Yankees' strategy because they have a very experienced bullpen. This what they do. We don't have to follow suit. Just because Boone pulled Paxton after five, we have to pull Berrios to match this move? Despite having a bit of trouble locating his curve, Berrios' fastball still had plenty of pop. He was still throwing 95+ in his final inning, and he had only give up one earned run and only two balls had been hit hard. Isn't this a case where you apply the vaunted metrics? Berrios is still hitting 95+ and getting swinging strikes; he's only given one earned run, so let's pull him???...I wouldn't have cared if he had thrown 108 pitches if he was still bringing it.

 

My point is this: The Twins are not the Yankees and this notion that we can play like there is a tomorrow in the playoffs reminds me a lot of the mindset brought by Gardenhire. Berrios would not be an ace on many teams, but, for the time-being, he is the Twins' ace, so let him pitch until he starts getting hit. If we think back (way back) to 1987 and 1991, the starters in those games went as long as they could. It's different era, but the general principle should still apply IMHO. We lost the first game (which was sooooo winnable) by horrible game management and this set the tone for the next two games, whereby the process was repeated.

 

Tom Kelly, for all of his weaknesses as a manager, knew how to manage the team in playoff games. Maybe a chat with him is in order? Let's see if we can get this figured out by next year. I love Rocco, but that was indefensible playoff management.

 

OK, my rant is finished, but I'm still frustrated (apparently more than Rocco). Let the poison arrows fall from the skies.

 

    • Kelly Vance likes this
Photo
Michigan Twins Fan
Oct 09 2019 03:29 AM

 

And most every college fanbase except probably Duke and Carolina would be overjoyed with that 2016 and 2018 run.But you find a way to crap on it.

Crap on it? Not so much. We were ecstatic. And if both Omari Spellman hadn't been forced to sit and Phil Booth hadn't gotten injured in 2017, we would have had a legitimate chance at a threepeat. 

 

My point, though, is that one of the criticisms since the BE realignment is that the conference doesn't necessarily test a team. 'Nova had been in the top 10 more than any other team since 2014, had more wins than any other team in NCAA history for a four year span (2014-2018), and yet were bumped out of the tournament in the second round twice. Prior to realignment, when Jay Wright went to the tournament, when the BE included 'Cuse, Beileins's WV, Louisville, and UCONN among others, he made it to the Sweet 16 twice, the Elite twice, and the Final Four once. He didn't make the tournament every year because the conference was so stacked, but when he did he went further than he has every year since realignment, 2016 and 2018 being the (amazing) outliers. MSU, Duke, NC, and KU are primed for the tournament not just because they field great teams every year, but because their conferences are virutal abattoirs. 

Two things that concerned me about this team all the way back in July ended up coming to fruition in the playoffs:

--Rocco's lack of being able to manage a pitching staff. The examples have been discussed ad infinitum in this thread already so no sense in repeating them. This is the playoffs and you have to go with your absolute best on the mound, not some silly 'rotation' that worked in the regular season. Stashak had no business being out there in Game 1 and Dobnak should not have started Game 2. I was fine with him starting Game 3 at home but not in that crucible of Yankee Stadium.

--Hitting all these home runs is great but it won't win you playoff games. The lack of situational hitting throughout the regular season was annoying (despite the high placement in RISP stats). The at-bats in the playoffs are a lot more pressure-filled. The Twins came up extra tiny when it mattered most time and time and time again.

That being said, I hope that this season is one that can be built on rather than a cute one-off. But for that to happen, Falvine is gonna have to pick up at least 1, if not 2, front-line, high-end starters. If the starters can match the quality of hitting, then they'll be built more for a playoff run. But to attract those FA starters, they better make sure that guys like Cruz are back for another bomba run.


The math is pretty clear, because the pitching is better in the playoffs, home runs are better than high batting average in the postseason. You are less likely to string together hits against the better pitching.

 

Crap on it? Not so much. We were ecstatic. And if both Omari Spellman hadn't been forced to sit and Phil Booth hadn't gotten injured in 2017, we would have had a legitimate chance at a threepeat. 

 

My point, though, is that one of the criticisms since the BE realignment is that the conference doesn't necessarily test a team. 'Nova had been in the top 10 more than any other team since 2014, had more wins than any other team in NCAA history for a four year span (2014-2018), and yet were bumped out of the tournament in the second round twice. Prior to realignment, when Jay Wright went to the tournament, when the BE included 'Cuse, Beileins's WV, Louisville, and UCONN among others, he made it to the Sweet 16 twice, the Elite twice, and the Final Four once. He didn't make the tournament every year because the conference was so stacked, but when he did he went further than he has every year since realignment, 2016 and 2018 being the (amazing) outliers. MSU, Duke, NC, and KU are primed for the tournament not just because they field great teams every year, but because their conferences are virutal abattoirs. 

 

Get out and play better teams in the non-con schedule.Wright's smart enough to know that the Tournament breeds a different type of game than they see in conference play.As an example, the Big East doesn't really have a Belmont (maybe Creighton could fit but not really) or a Stephen F. Austin so they should be thinking about playing a team in that same skill level.But big-time teams are so loathe to go on the road to play the mid-majors of the world and in my opinion, that puts them at a disadvantage sometimes when they get to March.The mids aren't afraid to ball out when playing the big boys because they've basically been doing it the whole non-con season since they often have to go into the bigger arenas.This year, Nova's got Ohio State, Kansas, UCONN, and Temple as their biggest non-con games.That's a good start but they're all virtually the same type of team.I'd argue the games against Ohio and Middle Tennessee will be just as important to your March success.

 

Good luck to Nova...but not too much cuz I'm a Temple fan and I'm sick of being on the short end of the rivalry the last few years.

    • Michigan Twins Fan likes this

 

The math is pretty clear, because the pitching is better in the playoffs, home runs are better than high batting average in the postseason. You are less likely to string together hits against the better pitching.

 

Then why'd the Yankees always seem to get the big hit when they needed it and the Twins didn't?

 

Then why'd the Yankees always seem to get the big hit when they needed it and the Twins didn't?

 

Sometimes the hits just don't fall.Look at Game 3.Torres's HR cleared the wall by about 2 feet.Eddie missed a HR by about as much, and Marwin needed the about the same to tie the game.If Sano's line drive blast late is 6 inches higher it gets over Judge's head and Twins score.

 

Game of inches sometimes.

 

The odds of losing 13 postseason games in a row must be astronomical even if 10 are to the Yankees.

Then why'd the Yankees always seem to get the big hit when they needed it and the Twins didn't?


Do you think three games changes years of data?

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