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Mid season update from Sickelshttps://www.minorlea...d-season-review
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2018 Futures game

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Anywhere to see/find a box score?
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Article: First Half Review: Injuries And Frustration

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Article: Dozier’s Days Numbered, Then What?

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Bryce Harper and Manny Machado

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Harper is on pace for 1 bWAR this year. (WAR doesn't like his defense). Going into the season, he and Machado were going to be the darlin...
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The Lost Ones

Trying to pretend like your word is your bond
But until you do right, all you do will go wrong
Now some might mistake this just for simple song
And some don't know what they have 'til it's gone


Incredibly, we are coming up on the 20-year anniversary of 1998's classic 'The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill.' The song quoted above, titled Lost Ones, was named by Rolling Stone as one of the 50 greatest hip-hop tracks of all time – justifiably so.

It's a scornful blast on someone who left her behind (Wyclef Jean, probs). It'd be no surprise if that song, still relatively fresh back in the winter of 2002/03, was banging in the headphones of David Ortiz while he steamed about his release from Minnesota.

He'd go on to make his former team pay for its mistake, and as we all know, he hardly suppressed his frustration with the way things went down over the years.
Releasing Ortiz sticks out as the singular worst decision in an overall highly respectable career for Terry Ryan as Twins GM. At the time, he was maneuvering to make room on the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft. He ended up giving away a Hall of Fame player for nothing.

Now, this is NOT meant to be yet another lamentation of a move we've all heard more than enough about. But the point is this: Oftentimes, front office execs will be judged more by the great players they let get away than the good ones they bring aboard.

Entering their first full offseason at the helm, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have been doing some 40-man shuffling of their own, parting ways with several players (some of them long-tenured members of the organization) in order to free up room for the Hot Stove Season ahead.

Ortiz's still ghost lingers subtly, taking forms like Aaron Hicks and Anthony Swarzak. Will any of these new Lost Ones haunt the organization going forward? Let's examine each player who's been sent out, with a 1-5 score on the O.R.T.I.Z. (Odds of Regret due to Turnaround or Improvement... Zone) Scale, with Big Papi himself of course being an off-the-charts, beyond-a-5 case.

Chris Gimenez (outrighted)
To be honest, I thought there was a good chance Gimenez would be retained. He still might, I guess, but the Twins are letting him hit the market rather than bringing him back cheaply through arbitration. The 34-year-old was productive enough and genuinely seemed like an all-around asset – beloved in the clubhouse, sharer of knowledge, able to take the mound in a pinch.

I wondered if the Twins trusted Mitch Garver's glove enough to give him the sole backup job, and that still remains to be seen, but with John Ryan Murphy gone they'll certainly be casting a net for other high-level options. As for Gimenez, what we saw was his ceiling.

O.R.T.I.Z. Score: 1

Randy Rosario (claimed by Cubs)
Rosario is one of those cases where the international development timelines can sting you. The Twins signed him young, at 16, all the way back in 2010 and consequently had to add him to the 40-man roster young. Circumstances dictated that the Twins basically needed to make a decision on him already at 23, and with so little experience above the high minors, they couldn't afford to wait him out anymore.

The talent is there, and not hard to see, but he's too raw and uncertain to hold off a more usable piece. It wouldn't be surprising if he eventually became a late-inning weapon for Chicago.

O.R.T.I.Z. Score: 3

Michael Tonkin (signed with Nippon Ham Fighters of NPB)
The big flame-thrower got his chances in Minnesota. No one can deny him that. He made 141 appearances over three seasons and just never came close to replicating his mastery of Triple-A. Tonkin's two-year, $2.1 million deal in Japan is a wise move, and not just because he'll be earning twice what he'd expect here (and that's IF he made a 25-man roster).

A guy with 97-MPH heat to go along with a 9.2 K/9 rate in the majors and decent enough control is going to flat-out dominate as a closer in that league. We've seen plenty of embattled big-leaguers raise their stock overseas and that could very well happen here. Maybe he'll even come back to Minnesota in a couple of years, though I suspect that bridge is burned.

O.R.T.I.Z. Score: 2

Niko Goodrum (outrighted, signed with Tigers)
Gardy influence? Goodrum was snapped up quickly by Detroit after the Twins dropped him, and there is zero doubt that the new Tigers manager (along with his partially reassembled staff from Minnesota) had a say in it. Ron Gardenhire saw him plenty as a youngster around camp prior to departing, and his new QA coach Joe Vavra has more recent experience. But the upside here is extremely minimal; Goodrum has a .712 career OPS in the minors and struck out in 10 of 18 appearances with the Twins. The good-not-great versatile glove doesn't make up for the 25-year-old's shortcomings at the plate.

O.R.T.I.Z. Score: 1

Ryan O'Rourke (outrighted, signed with Orioles)
I have little doubt that O'Rourke has a future as a quality MLB reliever. He has reliably decimated left-handed hitters everywhere he's pitched, including the majors, and there's no reason to think he won't continue doing so after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the end of April.

He'll probably turn 30 (April 30th next year) before he pitches in the majors again, but likely has a lengthy career ahead of him in a game of increasingly specialized bullpens. One can argue that O'Rourke was worth keeping ahead of Buddy Boshers, but both are well behind the likes of Taylor Rogers and Gabriel Moya, and only one's healthy.

O.R.T.I.Z. Score: 2

Nik Turley (claimed by Pirates)
There's an enticing aura around Turley so it's not hard to see why the Pirates are taking a look at him. He last pitched with the Red Sox in 2016 before taking a detour through independent ball and then catching on with the Twins. During his time with Boston's Double-A affiliate, the big southpaw showed crazy stuff but was all over the place (48 K and 28 BB in 35 IP).

Turley's mind-bending curveball was back on display during his time in Chattanooga and Rochester this summer, helping him procure a 2.05 ERA and 124-to-29 K/BB in 92 innings, but he looked utterly overmatched in 10 appearances with the Twins.

I can see why they ran out of patience, but I do think there's something there. In an era where the curveball is becoming king, the 28-year-old has a future. I'm not going to say he's the best player on this list, but to me, he has the most O.R.T.I.Z. pain potential.

O.R.T.I.Z. Score: 4

Daniel Palka (claimed by White Sox)
In some ways, Palka resembles a young David Ortiz. He's a lefty slugger with immense power anyone can see, but he lacks a defensive position. Here's the thing, though: When the Twins released Ortiz at age 26 he had 58 homers and an .800 OPS in the big leagues. Palka, now 26, has yet to dominate Triple-A pitching.

In today's MLB, Palka's profile is simply not a commodity – evidenced enough by Oswaldo Arcia (ALSO 26) posting a 1.000 OPS in 100 games for Arizona's Class-AAA affiliate without ever getting a call-up. To become a long-term asset out of this mold, you've got to basically hit at an Ortiz-like level (or close to it) and well, that just doesn't happen.

The nothing-to-lose White Sox can afford to gamble on Palka figuring it out at the plate enough to harness his high-end pop, but the Twins have many more promising bats to vie for his vacant spot.

O.R.T.I.Z. Score: 2

To summarize, none of these Lost Ones seem likely to be Superstars. But we haven't heard the last of any of them.

  • Cory Engelhardt, h2oface, tarheeltwinsfan and 1 other like this

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33 Comments

Can we put a pink line through Phil Hughes' name, yet?

    • dgwills, Sconnie and sploorp like this
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walt-o-meal
Nov 17 2017 12:26 AM

I give this article a S.T.R.E.R.O.I.D.S. score of 5.(Stategically Turning Erroneous Roster Outliers Into DavidOrtiz Syndrome)

    • Han Joelo, DJSim22, ThejacKmp and 15 others like this

 

Can we put a pink line through Phil Hughes' name, yet?

Probably. But in all fairness, Hughes is more of an injury problem than a lack of ability.

 

 

    • Oldgoat_MN likes this

It is good that they move on early for the benefit of the players released.None of these players looked to be key pieces moving on, even if they do find some success.I went down the list anticipating Kennys Vargas, but luckily he is still there (I like him) and if he is going to move it if more likely that it is a trade (my preference).I was surprised by Bosher remaining and I am curious how much of a chance Slegers has.

 

Thanks for the report - the way you presenting the list was brilliant (as the English group I am currently guiding would say). 

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Deduno Abides
Nov 17 2017 09:12 AM
Slightly off topic, but I’m wondering when Danny Santana will join Gardy in Detroit.
    • James, Danchat, blindeke and 4 others like this

Am I wrong that players cannot be on the 60 day DL now they need to be added to 40 man roster? It's a little early and my brain has not quite started up yet. Pretty sure they need to be added and cannot be put on 60 day DL until first day of season.

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ashburyjohn
Nov 17 2017 09:44 AM

Am I wrong that players cannot be on the 60 day DL now they need to be added to 40 man roster? It's a little early and my brain has not quite started up yet. Pretty sure they need to be added and cannot be put on 60 day DL until first day of season.

There is no disabled list in the off-season. Anyone with a guaranteed major league contract must be on the 40-man (looking at you, Phil Hughes); apart from that, it's up to the team to decide whom to protect from the upcoming draft.

 

According to this site, the 60-day DL starts up again well before Opening Day: "9. A player cannot be placed on the MLB Emergency Disabled List (60-day DL) after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, and during the post-season and off-season, up until the start of Spring Training (beginning on the date that pitchers & catchers are scheduled to report)."

    • glunn likes this
If Turley has the highest O.R.T.I.Z. score then the front office has done its job well.
    • ashburyjohn, nicksaviking, 70charger and 9 others like this

Was there a transaction with Santiago?

    • ashburyjohn likes this
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Halsey Hall
Nov 17 2017 10:19 AM

I didn't care to lose Randy Rosario, he seems to be the best on the list to me.I really liked his stuff. 

    • 70charger likes this

I agree that Turley has the most potential for pain and heartbreak in the future. He should find a nice home in Pittsburgh's bullpen. 

 

Hopefully Rogers, Moya, or someone else makes up for the loss. 

    • nicksaviking likes this
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puckstopper1
Nov 17 2017 11:01 AM

 

Was there a transaction with Santiago?

According to the Twins web site, Santiago elected free agency, similar to Gee, Colon and others.

    • glunn and Shaitan like this

I'd probably put both Turley and Rosario at 2. Rosario is not someone who is missing bats and Turley a.has had 10 seasons to find his control and it is still lost, and b. his K% did not translate in the majors. 

 

Still, I'd given up on Boshers and Slegers as well.They are both replacement level and I hope that someone worthwhile does not leave the organization because they occupy spots on the 40-man roster.

 

Need to add Liam Hendricks to the list with Hicks and Swarzak. 

    • Oldgoat_MN likes this
I have never once lamented the loss of Swarzak or Hendricks.
    • blindeke, Vanimal46, RaymondLuxuryYacht and 3 others like this
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Nick Nelson
Nov 17 2017 12:06 PM

 

According to the Twins web site, Santiago elected free agency, similar to Gee, Colon and others.

Yeah, the Twins didn't really make an active decision to let those guys go so they weren't included on this list. 

    • Shaitan likes this

I have never lamented over the "loss" of Ortiz. Nice guy, but he never would have done here, what he did in Boston. And correct me if, I'm wrong..all the teams passed on him when released.

 

    • DJSim22 and RaymondLuxuryYacht like this
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Winston Smith
Nov 17 2017 02:07 PM

 

I give this article a S.T.R.E.R.O.I.D.S. score of 5.(Stategically Turning Erroneous Roster Outliers Into DavidOrtiz Syndrome)

Any proof that he took roids?

 

Wonder why they haven't dropped Hughes from the 40 man, could only hope somebody claimed him.

 

Any proof that he took roids?

 

Wonder why they haven't dropped Hughes from the 40 man, could only hope somebody claimed him.

 

Same reason they did not drop Perkins the last couple seasons: insurance reasons. 

 

    • glunn likes this
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theBOMisthebomb
Nov 17 2017 05:17 PM

Slightly off topic, but I’m wondering when Danny Santana will join Gardy in Detroit.

Why not Little Nicky Punto (LNP)?
    • Broker likes this

Rosario could work out for the Cubs if they have the patience. He is still another year out at best, in my opinion.

If a 4 means better than a marginal major leaguer, I'll take the under on Turley.He's going to be in ML bullpens, I bet, but I don't think he's going to be a major part of a good one.I was a little sorry to see him go, though, but of course I'm interested to see what happens with the new additions.

 

After being worse with the Yankees for a year than he was with the Twins, Aaron Hicks had a great half-season this year, then fought injuries.I hope he has a good career, but he's not exactly David Ortiz yet. 

 

Swarzak's had a good year, a bad one, and a very good one since he left.Swarzak's 32 already- how did that happen?

 

 

 

    • 70charger and Original Whizzinator like this

A question to ask before evaluating "the Ortiz Scale" is: "would this man have succeeded with the Twins, and to the same level?"

Well, we know Bartolo COlon won't have the staying power of Ortiz. Belisle is old, too. Will Drew Rucinski and Ryan O'Rourke put together years similar to, say, Swarzak, Duensing and Nesxhek? Before we reclaim Tonkin, we might want to get back Kris Johnson. So often a player prices themselves out of the contracted usefulness (you can only cut them 20% or so) or you flat out don't want to pay them (which happened to Ortiz) compared to other healthy guys you have on roster.

 

Could the Twins have flipped Belisle or Gimenez during the trading period? Santiago WAS a tradechip until he came up lame. Colon got a lot more chances than he really deserved. I think that like Adam Walker the year before, the Twins should've at least had a major league looksee at Palka. 

 

Heston had one inning with the Twins. Wimmers signed abck last year hoping to catch on, which he did. Be interesting to see where he lands. 

 

I would like to see DIllon Gee return as the longman, possible spot starter.

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The Wise One
Nov 17 2017 11:16 PM

 

Well, we know Bartolo COlon won't have the staying power of Ortiz. Belisle is old, too. Will Drew Rucinski and Ryan O'Rourke put together years similar to, say, Swarzak, Duensing and Nesxhek? Before we reclaim Tonkin, we might want to get back Kris Johnson. So often a player prices themselves out of the contracted usefulness (you can only cut them 20% or so) or you flat out don't want to pay them (which happened to Ortiz) compared to other healthy guys you have on roster.

 

Could the Twins have flipped Belisle or Gimenez during the trading period? Santiago WAS a tradechip until he came up lame. Colon got a lot more chances than he really deserved. I think that like Adam Walker the year before, the Twins should've at least had a major league looksee at Palka. 

 

Heston had one inning with the Twins. Wimmers signed abck last year hoping to catch on, which he did. Be interesting to see where he lands. 

 

I would like to see DIllon Gee return as the longman, possible spot starter.

Atlanta, Baltimore and the Reds confirmed what the Twins did was correct. , The arrogance of front offices to waste such talents.

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The Wise One
Nov 17 2017 11:25 PM

 

I'd probably put both Turley and Rosario at 2. Rosario is not someone who is missing bats and Turley a.has had 10 seasons to find his control and it is still lost, and b. his K% did not translate in the majors. 

 

Still, I'd given up on Boshers and Slegers as well.They are both replacement level and I hope that someone worthwhile does not leave the organization because they occupy spots on the 40-man roster.

 

Need to add Liam Hendricks to the list with Hicks and Swarzak. 

How many bad seasons did Swarzak have? How many good pitching/bullpen coaches did he have along the way? One good year out of how many bad ones?When Swarzak puts up a couple years of elite pitching people can be critical of his being released. Same for Hendriks. He has been decent, but not great

    • Original Whizzinator likes this