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Who do we go for next?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:05 PM
Who is the next realistic target we are going to persue?
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Article: Can Aaron Hicks Be Fixed?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 05:45 PM
One of the more critical openings the Minnesota Twins will have this year is in center field. If all goes well, that job will be Aaron Hi...
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Astros & later pick Nix settle -- part of Aiken mess

MLB Baseball Today, 05:12 PM
Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS  · 16m16 minutes ago  astros & draftee nix, whose $1.5M deal was canceled thru no fault of his ow...
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Rumor: Twins to spend over their Int. bonus limit in 2015...

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 04:03 PM
This is completely a rumor, so huge grain of salt, but Kiley McDaniel, who is a legit source, posted it based on "surveying about a dozen...
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Article: Twins Non-Roster Spring Training Invites

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 03:11 PM
On Friday afternoon, the Twins announced that they have invited 18 non-roster players to major league spring training. Among others, top...
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Recent Blogs

The Key for Mike Pelfrey

It’s hard to ignore the numbers. They are pretty glaring. Overall this year, Minnesota Twins starter Mike Pelfrey is 3-6 with a 6.12 ERA in his first 13 starts. He’s allowing over 1.6 base runners per inning. It has been a tough go. In April, he posted a 7.66 ERA. In May, that number dropped to 5.90. Through two Quality Starts in June, he has posted a 4.05 ERA.

The numbers are bad, but it seemed to me from watching that things weren’t quite as bad as they seemed. For instance, in his final two starts in May, he was good through five innings. On May 26, he had given up just two runs through five innings before giving up three in the sixth, giving him a final line of five runs in 5+ innings. On May 31, he threw five shutout innings before giving up three runs in the sixth.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

So, I looked into the Game Log and found that Pelfrey has been victimized by the big inning a lot. So far this season, he has given up five runs in an inning once. He has given up three runs in an inning six times. Five times, he has allowed two runs in an inning (but just once did that happen twice in one game). Combined, that is 33 runs of the 44 earned runs (and 46 unearned runs) he has allowed. 75% of his runs allowed have come during big innings.

Attached Image: Mike Pelfrey 2.jpg

You often hear coaches or announcers say, “The team needs to put up a crooked number.” The goal for a pitcher is to give up no runs in an inning, but it’s not reasonable to expect him to do that all the time. If he can limit a team to just one run, rather than allowing a big inning, it most often won’t hurt too much.

Pelfrey has thrown 64.2 innings this year. He has been removed from the game six times in the middle of an inning. So, he has pitched in a total of 68 innings. In 12 of those innings, he gave up more than one run. He has given up exactly one run 11 other times. That means that he has pitched a scoreless inning 45 times. He has given up zero or one run in 56 of those 68 innings in which he has pitched (82.4% of his innings). His ERA in those 56 innings is 1.76. However, he has given up 33 runs in those 12 multi-run innings and that’s how he still has an ERA over six through 13 starts.

I’m not sitting here pretending that we can just forget about those 12 multi-run innings that Pelfrey (and Twins fans) have endured. He would be the first to tell you that he isn’t happy with his season to this point. (in fact, 1500espn’s Brandon Warne wrote a nice piece with some great quotes from Pelfrey himself on his season) But a deeper look tells us what has been the problem for Pelfrey. When he has given up runs, often, he is unable to stop the proverbial bleeding. More often than not (12 to 11), when he’s given up run, he’s allowed more than that one run.

That, in my mind, has been the key to Pelfrey’s early-season struggles. And, if he is able to limit the damage in those big innings, we should see his ERA (and his pitch counts) drop more quickly.

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