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The Future Value of Luis Arraez

Major League Baseball has rookies every season that are deemed as the next wave of stars. However, this rarely comes to fruition as plenty of players can have success over a small sample size and then fade after repeat exposure at the big-league level. Luis Arraez might be the exception to the rule. He has hit at every level throughout his professional career and he looks like he might have more big-league value than originally thought.
Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Prospects break into the big leagues every season and there was no shortage of big names on this year’s list of breakthrough prospects. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Yordan Alvarez and Eloy Jimenez are just a few of the players from the current rookie class to find early success. Guerrero and Tatis were two of the top prospects in the game and they didn’t slow down after their call-ups.

MLB.com released their list of rookies with the most potential value moving forward. After the breakout season from Arraez, it seemed like a no-brainer to have him high on the list. According to FanGraphs, Arraez has been the been the ninth most valuable rookie in all of baseball. However, MLB.com doesn’t see his future value as being so high. As a 22-year old, he barely cracks the top-30.

There isn’t exactly a cornucopia of well-known players ahead of Arraez on MLB’s list. Other second baseman on the list near him include Tampa’s Brandon Lowe, Miami’s Isan Diaz and Pittsburgh’s Kevin Newman. All these players could have great careers ahead of them, but Arraez might have a little something more to add to the equation.

Few MLB players have been able to do what Arraez has done in his first 300 plate appearances. Only three players rank better than him in batting average among 22-year-olds in the past 100 years Among the other players on the list include Ted Williams, Stan Musial, and Joe DiMaggio. This isn’t exactly a random list of players that had good seasons as a young player. All three of these names are inner circle Hall-of-Fame members that are among some of the best all-time hitters.

Value can come on both sides of the ball for a player. In the case of Arraez, his defensive value seems limited, but he has shown the ability to play multiple positions. He seems destined to be Minnesota’s second baseman. That doesn’t mean he can't play left field, with over 130 innings out there and over 120 innings at third base. His bat will play no matter what position he is playing in the field.

Arraez may never reach the level of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Fernando Tatis Jr. This still doesn’t take anything away from what he has been able to do at the big-league level. There aren’t 28 rookies better than Arraez this season and he will prove his value in the years ahead.

How valuable do you think Arraez can be in the years to come? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

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119 Comments

 

Picturing Les Nessman pronouncing “Chi Chi Rodriguez”...

LOL! That's my all-time favorite.

What sets Arraez apart is his hand eye coordination. Fantastically quick. This let's him fight off 2 strike pitches and a extremely tough out. This annoys the hooves off of pitches and drives up pitch counts. High pitch counts brings the bullpens into play sooner wrecking rotations and pens alike.
    • birdwatcher likes this

It's impossible for him to be a super 2 after next year, as he'll only have 1.X years of service time. It will be a close call as to whether he achieves super 2 status after 2021, when he'll have 2.X years of service time, which is what super 2 consideration requires.


Correct. I think he's seen his last days in the minors and should achieve super 2 status. Point being, he's likely to hit arbitration early which is potentially means 8 figures over his arb years. It's a consideration for sure, imo.
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twinstalker
Sep 18 2019 08:05 PM

 

Max Kepler, as a 22 year old, hit 9 homers in 500+ PA's at A+ and AA (almost entirely AA)

 

Nelson Cruz, as a 22 year old, hit 4 homers 220+ AB's at Short A

 

Power can develop as players get older--I'm not saying it will for Arraez, and even if it does, it's a gigantic long shot that it would become 30 homer power, but I don't think we should assume Arraez is a slower Ben Revere; after all, Revere, had 15 XBH across 390 AB's (mostly AA, cup of coffee in MLB) at age 22.Arraez has 34 across 503 AB's (SLG of .350 for Revere, .433 for Arraez).

 

Perhaps a better way to look at it would be this--below are three age 22 seasons;

 

Player A--.290/.340/.399/.739 in 630 PA's, 34 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 7.1% XBH Rate, 40 BB, 74 K, .54 BB/K

Player B--.302/.393/.392/.785 in 476 PA's, 23 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 5.9% XBH Rate, 65 BB, 42 K, 1.55 BB/K

Player C--.350/.416/.433/.849 in 566 PA's, 29 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 6.0% XBH Rate, 59 BB, 43 K, 1.37 BB/K

 

Player C is Luis Arraez (with 58% of his PA's in MLB), Player A is Jose Altuve (100% at MLB), Player B is Joe Mauer (100% at Low A).Given that Arraez appears to have plate discipline at least as good as Mauer, if not better, and far better than Altuve, I see no reason to think his ability to put the ball in play will suffer.As he continues to develop power, I suspect he'll settle into a yearly average of 35-40 doubles, and 10-15 homers; more than enough to keep pitchers honest.

 

In short, I would absolutely offer Arraez a 7 year, $35M contract this offseason, and be willing to go up to 7 and 50 if that's what it takes (although in that scenario I'd tack on a team option for $10M for year 8).

I don't know much, but I do know Joe Mauer wasn't hitting in low A ball when he was 22.He was 19 his low A season of 2002.  

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twinstalker
Sep 18 2019 08:20 PM

 

I'm very surprised to learn that the mlb writer holds Arraez in such low esteem. I think he's much better than ranking 29th rookie with the best future. I guess singles hitting, high OBP players are just out of fashion.

 

On the other hand, I do secretly worry about his legs (knee?). He's simply not fast, and maybe his legs aren't up to par. Or maybe he's just quirky and it doesn't mean anything.

In all fairness, the names ahead of Arraez are for the most part incredible.I had to get to #11 Senzel before I could make an argument, and then to the Padres at 15 and 16 who are likely limited by their ballpark.After that I had to go all the way down to 25 Isan Diaz to really argue again, and then 26 Cole Tucker might be worse in the long run.

 

There are very good players who debuted this year, and Arraez is not being pissed on because he's #29.That might even be code for what they really think of him!If you think you've got a right to complain, how about #22 Bryan Reynolds?His line this year:466 ABs.322/.385/.517

    • birdwatcher likes this

Curious why you would do that with so much team control left? It'd be extremely foolish IMO to offer him a long term deal right now. Let it play out. No sense in paying him tons when we can use him up for cheap for quite some time yet.

He will command a Bigger salary in the next years....
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Brock Beauchamp
Sep 18 2019 09:09 PM

 

He will command a Bigger salary in the next years....

So will everyone else.

 

After the completion of the 2019 season, the Twins will control Arraez through the 2025 season if my math is right, and it might not be, because I just watched a terrible game at Target Field and am kinda drunk.

 

But still, that's a hell of a long time to control a player who came out of nowhere and one that has pretty questionable defensive ability and a high (but not outrageous given his skillset) BABIP.

 

Wait it out. See what Arraez does in 2020 as his BABIP levels out to something normal and see how he does in the field and how pitchers adjust to him. There's no reason to jump out in front of this and sign him now.

    • LA VIkes Fan and Tomj14 like this

 

In all fairness, the names ahead of Arraez are for the most part incredible.I had to get to #11 Senzel before I could make an argument, and then to the Padres at 15 and 16 who are likely limited by their ballpark.After that I had to go all the way down to 25 Isan Diaz to really argue again, and then 26 Cole Tucker might be worse in the long run.

 

There are very good players who debuted this year, and Arraez is not being pissed on because he's #29.That might even be code for what they really think of him!If you think you've got a right to complain, how about #22 Bryan Reynolds?His line this year:466 ABs.322/.385/.517

 

When I read the list with Arraez at #29... I couldn't help thinking that the list was just some guy who couldn't let go of previous minor league projections no matter how they performed in the big leagues. 

 

I'm sure there were some adjustments and some trading of spots but... 

 

I don't know... Who knows what the future holds but Arraez at #29 and Urias at #15 after you look at the MLB production tells me that in the eyes of Jim Callis... what they did this year, doesn't matter to Jim Callis. 

 

I also think that Jordan Alveraz and Tatis have earned the right to leap frog past Vlad.Vlad might be a once in a generation type player but Alveraz and Tatis looks once in a generational to. Tatis is 5 (top of the pile) tools and they were all on display at the MLB level at age 20 while Vlad looks like he needs a little more cooking. 

 

I agree that Reynolds wan't respected... and where is Aquino on the list? Yaz should be a consideration. 

 

 

 

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twinstalker
Sep 18 2019 09:36 PM

 

He will command a Bigger salary in the next years....

So what you're saying is that it's impossible for Arraez to be anything but great going forward? First of all, he could be very average next year, let's say .290/.330/.370. Wouldn't that be a better time, $$$-wise, to extend him? In fact, it would be foolish to offer that kind of production a long-term contract.

 

Do you agree with the point there, that paying him after that kind of season would not be smart? Now, instead, let's say he puts up exactly the number in 2020 that he puts up in 2019 (which is super unlikely because of regression to the mean, a concept that mean mathematically that if the reason you notice someone is because he's an extreme case, a projection of his his future output will have an expected value that is closer to the center of the distribution of which he stands out--that is, you never pay someone long-term for an outstanding season when you don't have to necessarily lock him up).

 

But if in fact he defies all odds and repeats this season, what does that tell you? For one, you are a ton more comfortable that he is close to his average production at that time and have much more of a basis for signing him. It may cost you a few million more, but would you rather pay a few million more or give a huge contract to a mediocre to average player?

 

Using this logic, it might even be better to wait until the third year is over with 2.x years of service time.Then you really have an idea what he's worth, and it's unlikely you're going to make a mistake. Somewhere in this logic, there is an optimal point to pay someone long-term who keeps repeating great stats.

 

At that point, if he hasn't gone south or gotten injured, you pay him, but what we know for sure, absolute sure, is that now, after one partial season, is nowhere near that time. There is far too much for Arraez to lose by not signing what we'll think is a team-friendly contract over the next two years.By refusing he takes the chance of dipping production and injury over four more years of team control without having the security of a long-term contract.

 

That's where the current CBA is friendly toward smart front offices. Hardly anybody makes the big money by waiting anymore. You have to be a Harper or Machado and have stupid teams left to give you a big contract. And stupid teams are going away. So better get the security of a long-term contract while you can get it. That's why Polanco and Kepler took the money, and why Rosario (already) and Buxton (maybe) are making mistakes by not signing.

 

I would be surprised if the Twin even want to talk to Rosario anymore. They'll likely trade him this offseason if they can get something good, or they'll just go through arb the next two years and switch to the next guy up.Meanwhile Eddie loses his chance to play almost all his career with what will be a winning franchise...and lose his chance maybe to latch onto this franchise for life. All for what will likely amount to about the same money or less than the Twins would have been willing to give him.

 

 

    • birdwatcher, Dman and Tomj14 like this

There is an intimidating, and more importantly, impressive command of advanced analytics provided/debated on Twins Daily. I have loved it for years. (thank you!).

 

That said - there's something special about watching Luis play that 'looks' like he can be so great and incredibly valuable to a team that wants to win games.

 

I wish I would have played with many more people with his penchant for (is there a stat for penchant?) doing the right thing at the right point in a game to increase your chances of winning games.

 

Not to mention - is there a stat for "FUN TO WATCH"? I call him Suparraez! and hope he's a Twin for a long time!

    • birdwatcher and highlander like this
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Cap'n Piranha
Sep 19 2019 12:12 PM

 

Not sure I agree that those aren’t unreasonable numbers. Obviously, it’s not apples to apples because Altuve signed a contract as opposed to going to arbitration. But in what would have been his first arb year, he made $1.25 mil. He had already been an all star at that point. But that figure does matter, because salaries of similar players are part of the arbitration equation.

 

Altuve won't be a comp for arbitration because he didn't go to arbitration.Luis' first arbitration year (either 2022 or 2023) will be nearly a decade after Altuve signed that contract.Just a few things have/will have changed in terms of MLB compensation in that span.

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Cap'n Piranha
Sep 19 2019 12:13 PM

 

Because he didn't get a full year of service time this season, there is no possible scenario in which the Twins DON'T have team control for an additional 6 seasons after this season.

 

Super 2.I don't know if Luis will attain Super 2 status, but it's certainly possible, which would give the Twins 5 years of control, barring significant injuries that allow the Twins to gain a fourth year of arbitration.

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Cap'n Piranha
Sep 19 2019 12:36 PM

 

So what you're saying is that it's impossible for Arraez to be anything but great going forward? First of all, he could be very average next year, let's say .290/.330/.370. Wouldn't that be a better time, $$$-wise, to extend him? In fact, it would be foolish to offer that kind of production a long-term contract.

 

Do you agree with the point there, that paying him after that kind of season would not be smart? Now, instead, let's say he puts up exactly the number in 2020 that he puts up in 2019 (which is super unlikely because of regression to the mean, a concept that mean mathematically that if the reason you notice someone is because he's an extreme case, a projection of his his future output will have an expected value that is closer to the center of the distribution of which he stands out--that is, you never pay someone long-term for an outstanding season when you don't have to necessarily lock him up).

 

But if in fact he defies all odds and repeats this season, what does that tell you? For one, you are a ton more comfortable that he is close to his average production at that time and have much more of a basis for signing him. It may cost you a few million more, but would you rather pay a few million more or give a huge contract to a mediocre to average player?

 

Using this logic, it might even be better to wait until the third year is over with 2.x years of service time.Then you really have an idea what he's worth, and it's unlikely you're going to make a mistake. Somewhere in this logic, there is an optimal point to pay someone long-term who keeps repeating great stats.

 

At that point, if he hasn't gone south or gotten injured, you pay him, but what we know for sure, absolute sure, is that now, after one partial season, is nowhere near that time. There is far too much for Arraez to lose by not signing what we'll think is a team-friendly contract over the next two years.By refusing he takes the chance of dipping production and injury over four more years of team control without having the security of a long-term contract.

 

That's where the current CBA is friendly toward smart front offices. Hardly anybody makes the big money by waiting anymore. You have to be a Harper or Machado and have stupid teams left to give you a big contract. And stupid teams are going away. So better get the security of a long-term contract while you can get it. That's why Polanco and Kepler took the money, and why Rosario (already) and Buxton (maybe) are making mistakes by not signing.

 

I would be surprised if the Twin even want to talk to Rosario anymore. They'll likely trade him this offseason if they can get something good, or they'll just go through arb the next two years and switch to the next guy up.Meanwhile Eddie loses his chance to play almost all his career with what will be a winning franchise...and lose his chance maybe to latch onto this franchise for life. All for what will likely amount to about the same money or less than the Twins would have been willing to give him.

 

You seem to be assuming that Luis almost must regress, and simply repeating this year's numbers is the absolute best case scenario.This suggests you think it's impossible that he adds more muscle, turning singles into doubles and some doubles into homers.Or that with an entire offseason as the presumptive starting second baseman, he'll be able to more thoroughly study opposing AL pitchers, as opposed to this year where he spent the offseason worrying about AA pitchers.

 

Arraez is a decent candidate to not regress, given his understanding of the strike zone (26.7% chase rate, 52nd out of 268 batters with 300+ PA's), his consistent use of all fields (all between 27.9% and 37%), his elite contact ability (3.0% swinging strike rate, 2nd of 268; 92.7% contact rate, 1st), his subsequent ability to avoid soft contact (11.1%, 16th), and his competence against all pitch types (only negative against cutters, and that's only -0.1).It seems highly unlikely that these skills will suddenly dissipate at the age of 23.

 

Furthermore, stating that giving out a contract now is silly because Arraez might regress next year ignores the possibility that not giving out a contract now is silly because Arraez might progress next year.What if next year he flirts with .400 into August, before settling with a .370 average and winning the batting title by 40 points?What if the OBP hangs around .430 the entire year, but he also hits 40 doubles, and even 10 homers, leading to him OPS'ing above .900?What if his conditioning, and therefore defense and speed improve because he spends the entire offseason training in Fort Myers, as opposed to in Venezuela, where there's an actual famine going on?I don't think all, or perhaps even any of that happens, but none of that is out of the question, and if it does happen, will make him much more expensive than $5M-$7M a year.

 

Finally, if Arraez does have 2 more years like this one (which would put him at about 10-12 career WAR before the age of 25), you probably won't be able to get him to sign a team friendly contract, as he might very will be in arbitration at that point, and looking at a $4M to $6M first year salary anyways.Team friendly deals happen because you're giving players giant raises in years you don't have to, in return for not having to give them huge raises in years you do.I posed this question already, but I'll ask again;what's worse--paying Arraez $35M over the next 7 years while he slashes .290/.330/.380, or saving at most $15M over the next 5-6 years, then watching Luis leave in free agency and win a couple batting titles?

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LA VIkes Fan
Sep 19 2019 01:01 PM

 

So will everyone else.

 

After the completion of the 2019 season, the Twins will control Arraez through the 2025 season if my math is right, and it might not be, because I just watched a terrible game at Target Field and am kinda drunk.

 

But still, that's a hell of a long time to control a player who came out of nowhere and one that has pretty questionable defensive ability and a high (but not outrageous given his skillset) BABIP.

 

Wait it out. See what Arraez does in 2020 as his BABIP levels out to something normal and see how he does in the field and how pitchers adjust to him. There's no reason to jump out in front of this and sign him now.

The "let's not jump him to the front of the line" comment is right on. You risk a significant hit team chemistry if you extend Arraez without at least making a competitive attempt attempt to extend Berrios, Rosario and Buxton first.Start with the guys who have contributed over more than one year (might leave Buxton out) before yo move on to the latest and greatest shiny object. 

    • birdwatcher likes this
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birdwatcher
Sep 19 2019 01:20 PM

 

My advice for any and all people, is JUST ENJOY IT!!!What we're seeing with Arraez is simply amazing.Don't let stats that support his faults cause you to think he's insufficient at 2B.He's fearless.There's no stat for that.He's unorthodox.No stat for that.He's who I want to see up when we have runners on second and third.No stat for that.He's who I want up to start an inning when we need a runner on in the 9th.No stat for that.Has he failed?Yes, but far less than many.He gets the job and excels at it.Throw your numbers that oppose him out the window, and just let this kid play.

 

 

Great post.

 

While I share the skepticism of a few others about how sustainable his production will be, I know that if I'm the GM, I place a 20% premium above what the metrics say his value to the team is. Why?

 

One, because I'm convinced he demoralizes the heck out of the other team, especially the pitchers, with his perfectly placed soft liners and instincts for making the right plays. I believe he makes intangible W-L contributions beyond what his incredible numbers show.

 

Two, because I can see that he's an absolute joy for the fans. They love him.

 

And three, is teammates seem to love him too, as do his coaches. I want him in my clubhouse.

    • jrod23 likes this

Remember this guy wasn't even penciled in to play at AAA this season. He came up to Rochester because of the chain of injuries in Minnesota and Rochester. He then advanced to the Twins because of those injuries. No way was he going to stay long. His play did not allow Twins to send him back down.

What a story! From injury sub to everyday player.

 

Yeah, we can pick him apart until all the cows have come home. but in the meantime, enjoy watching this guy do what he does and be glad he's on our side.

He's a threat to get a hit every AB.

    • birdwatcher and Riverbrian like this

 

You seem to be assuming that Luis almost must regress, and simply repeating this year's numbers is the absolute best case scenario.This suggests you think it's impossible that he adds more muscle, turning singles into doubles and some doubles into homers.Or that with an entire offseason as the presumptive starting second baseman, he'll be able to more thoroughly study opposing AL pitchers, as opposed to this year where he spent the offseason worrying about AA pitchers.

 

Arraez is a decent candidate to not regress, given his understanding of the strike zone (26.7% chase rate, 52nd out of 268 batters with 300+ PA's), his consistent use of all fields (all between 27.9% and 37%), his elite contact ability (3.0% swinging strike rate, 2nd of 268; 92.7% contact rate, 1st), his subsequent ability to avoid soft contact (11.1%, 16th), and his competence against all pitch types (only negative against cutters, and that's only -0.1).It seems highly unlikely that these skills will suddenly dissipate at the age of 23.

 

Furthermore, stating that giving out a contract now is silly because Arraez might regress next year ignores the possibility that not giving out a contract now is silly because Arraez might progress next year.What if next year he flirts with .400 into August, before settling with a .370 average and winning the batting title by 40 points?What if the OBP hangs around .430 the entire year, but he also hits 40 doubles, and even 10 homers, leading to him OPS'ing above .900?What if his conditioning, and therefore defense and speed improve because he spends the entire offseason training in Fort Myers, as opposed to in Venezuela, where there's an actual famine going on?I don't think all, or perhaps even any of that happens, but none of that is out of the question, and if it does happen, will make him much more expensive than $5M-$7M a year.

 

Finally, if Arraez does have 2 more years like this one (which would put him at about 10-12 career WAR before the age of 25), you probably won't be able to get him to sign a team friendly contract, as he might very will be in arbitration at that point, and looking at a $4M to $6M first year salary anyways.Team friendly deals happen because you're giving players giant raises in years you don't have to, in return for not having to give them huge raises in years you do.I posed this question already, but I'll ask again;what's worse--paying Arraez $35M over the next 7 years while he slashes .290/.330/.380, or saving at most $15M over the next 5-6 years, then watching Luis leave in free agency and win a couple batting titles?

 

While I agree with you that he has as much or more potential to improve than regress I still don't buy the sign right now scenario.So many things can go wrong it doesn't make much sense to sign him long term this early.What if he blows out his knee again and is never the same player again?What if he gets concussed and isn't the same player again?What if he does regress?What if he never develops much power?Then you are stuck paying for a guy you may not even want on your 40 man.There is a reason teams typically don't extend players this early and that is they don't want to take on that kind of risk.Give him a full year and see what things look like. There really is no hurry to make these deals until players are close to arbitration.Most deals are only adding a year or two tops anyway.Under the current rules If I was in the FO I would wait even for a sure thing I would wait.

 

I will say that I agree that barring injury I think Arraez will get better as he ages.I think he will selectively add power to his game in the next couple of years and with his great eye at the plate I don't think there will be much regression because he will force pitchers to pitch in the zone and that should allow for better outcomes.If he stays healthy I believe this guy is the real deal and a big asset to this team now and moving forward.

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birdwatcher
Sep 19 2019 01:51 PM

 

In all fairness, the names ahead of Arraez are for the most part incredible.I had to get to #11 Senzel before I could make an argument, and then to the Padres at 15 and 16 who are likely limited by their ballpark.After that I had to go all the way down to 25 Isan Diaz to really argue again, and then 26 Cole Tucker might be worse in the long run.

 

There are very good players who debuted this year, and Arraez is not being pissed on because he's #29.That might even be code for what they really think of him!If you think you've got a right to complain, how about #22 Bryan Reynolds?His line this year:466 ABs.322/.385/.517

 

 

Nice observation. I'd say every GM in baseball would trade Arraez for a vast majority of the rookies ranked ahead of him. It's a bumper crop.

    • Tomj14 likes this

Super 2. I don't know if Luis will attain Super 2 status, but it's certainly possible, which would give the Twins 5 years of control, barring significant injuries that allow the Twins to gain a fourth year of arbitration.


Nope. Super 2 does not allow the player to achieve free agency sooner. It allows them to begin their arbitration years sooner, effectively giving them a fourth year of arbitration.
There is no possible scenario where he'll have enough service time to become a free agent any sooner than following the 2025 season.
    • USAFChief and Jham like this

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