Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
The same great Twins Daily coverage, now for the Vikings.

The Forums

FA Pitching Targets

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 01:24 AM
I was thinking about the discussion on:   http://twinsdaily.co...on-opening-day/   That thread seems to have stalled, so I'd li...
Full topic ›

Game Thread: Twins v Tigers, 9/15 @ 7:10pm CT

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:34 AM
Game-time forecast: Clear. Winds blowing out to center field at 5-10 m.p.h. Temperature around 55.   TIGERS: SP, Scherzer...
Full topic ›

Pitching contracts

More Baseball Yesterday, 11:52 PM
Not to distract from the in depth thread on the Twins forum, but a point raised there has piqued my research interest.  Many seem to...
Full topic ›

Bye Bye New Britain?

Twins Minor League Talk Yesterday, 11:52 PM
I just noticed in LEN III's Saturday insider that as of tomorrow, the Twins will be AA free agents looking for a new location for their m...
Full topic ›

Article: Harmon Killebrew Award for Community Service 2014

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 11:34 PM
A discussion of the greatest players in Minnesota Twins history is certain to include Harmon Killebrew’s name prominently. In the batter’...
Full topic ›

The Store


Seth's 2013 Twins Hitting Projections

Since completing the Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook a month ago, I have managed to find a little extra time in my life. So, what did I do? I am so cool that I started making my Minnesota Twins Roster Projections (which can be found hereand here). Today, another piece to that fun, preseason puzzle is presented for you today. It is my attempt to predict how the Twins hitters will fare in 2013.

I'm sure you've reviewed several such projections, such as Bill James and PECOTA and others. However, those are all just done with a computer and with stats and all those things that seem to make a lot of sense based on several factors like the players' history, age and more. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]

My projections are fairly similar, in nature, yet likely different in results. I admit that I used my computer and I looked at players' stats from previous seasons. I considered the players' ages and career trajectories. I also made some assumptions based on intangibles, either previously chronicled or developed on my own. In other words, I look at the numbers and then use my gut to determine what the player will do in 2013.

Attached Image: Joe Mauer.jpg

You're certainly free to disagree with them, if you like. Frankly, I just enjoy doing it because it helps me get ready for the upcoming season. I'm not going to claim that my projections are in any way better than the others you've read (even those other ones will be pretty close on some and not even a little close on others), but I am certainly willing to stand behind them. And, hopefully someone will remind me at the end of the season to look at them and see how close I was.

I encourage all of you to do something similar and/or post your projections for the players below as well. Obviously we can't predict injury or trades and easier than we can predict who will break out and who will bust. But again, these are solely my projections for the 2012 seasons for the Twins hitters. It is not meant to be used in your fantasy league drafts or anything. If you do so, do so at your own risk.

Please note that I projected player by player, and at the end, I compared my projected 2013 numbers to the actual 2012 numbers to see if I was completely off. I do show some small improvement by the offense overall. Note also that I have about 250 more plate appearances to reach those 2012 numbers, but I would say those are for other players who come up for brief stints, or to account for the unexpected.

With that, I'm going to split the projections into two charts, in hopes that it will fit better onto your screen.

Enjoy!

[TABLE="width: 537"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]G[/TD]
[TD]PA[/TD]
[TD]AB[/TD]
[TD]BA[/TD]
[TD]OBP[/TD]
[TD]SLG[/TD]
[TD]OPS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Joe Mauer[/TD]
[TD]143[/TD]
[TD]626[/TD]
[TD]532[/TD]
[TD]0.325[/TD]
[TD]0.406[/TD]
[TD]0.483[/TD]
[TD]0.889[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Ryan Doumit[/TD]
[TD]127[/TD]
[TD]505[/TD]
[TD]470[/TD]
[TD]0.257[/TD]
[TD]0.305[/TD]
[TD]0.430[/TD]
[TD]0.735[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Drew Butera[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]91[/TD]
[TD]84[/TD]
[TD]0.202[/TD]
[TD]0.231[/TD]
[TD]0.286[/TD]
[TD]0.516[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Chris Herrmann[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[TD]123[/TD]
[TD]108[/TD]
[TD]0.259[/TD]
[TD]0.325[/TD]
[TD]0.361[/TD]
[TD]0.686[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1B[/TD]
[TD]Justin Morneau[/TD]
[TD]142[/TD]
[TD]607[/TD]
[TD]521[/TD]
[TD]0.292[/TD]
[TD]0.381[/TD]
[TD]0.536[/TD]
[TD]0.916[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2B[/TD]
[TD]Brian Dozier[/TD]
[TD]113[/TD]
[TD]458[/TD]
[TD]412[/TD]
[TD]0.267[/TD]
[TD]0.330[/TD]
[TD]0.391[/TD]
[TD]0.720[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3B[/TD]
[TD]Trevor Plouffe[/TD]
[TD]154[/TD]
[TD]598[/TD]
[TD]536[/TD]
[TD]0.252[/TD]
[TD]0.311[/TD]
[TD]0.451[/TD]
[TD]0.763[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SS[/TD]
[TD]Pedro Florimon[/TD]
[TD]62[/TD]
[TD]179[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]0.189[/TD]
[TD]0.218[/TD]
[TD]0.262[/TD]
[TD]0.480[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]UIF[/TD]
[TD]Jamey Carroll[/TD]
[TD]129[/TD]
[TD]335[/TD]
[TD]281[/TD]
[TD]0.274[/TD]
[TD]0.343[/TD]
[TD]0.342[/TD]
[TD]0.685[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]UIF[/TD]
[TD]Eduardo Escobar[/TD]
[TD]108[/TD]
[TD]237[/TD]
[TD]212[/TD]
[TD]0.259[/TD]
[TD]0.312[/TD]
[TD]0.349[/TD]
[TD]0.661[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LF[/TD]
[TD]Josh Willingham[/TD]
[TD]151[/TD]
[TD]626[/TD]
[TD]534[/TD]
[TD]0.253[/TD]
[TD]0.355[/TD]
[TD]0.489[/TD]
[TD]0.843[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CF[/TD]
[TD]Aaron Hicks[/TD]
[TD]91[/TD]
[TD]397[/TD]
[TD]336[/TD]
[TD]0.265[/TD]
[TD]0.348[/TD]
[TD]0.399[/TD]
[TD]0.746[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]RF[/TD]
[TD]Chris Parmelee[/TD]
[TD]119[/TD]
[TD]433[/TD]
[TD]382[/TD]
[TD]0.259[/TD]
[TD]0.335[/TD]
[TD]0.440[/TD]
[TD]0.775[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OF[/TD]
[TD]Darin Mastroianni[/TD]
[TD]115[/TD]
[TD]387[/TD]
[TD]337[/TD]
[TD]0.246[/TD]
[TD]0.313[/TD]
[TD]0.335[/TD]
[TD]0.648[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OF[/TD]
[TD]Oswaldo Arcia[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]128[/TD]
[TD]115[/TD]
[TD]0.322[/TD]
[TD]0.367[/TD]
[TD]0.487[/TD]
[TD]0.854[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OF[/TD]
[TD]Joe Benson[/TD]
[TD]67[/TD]
[TD]210[/TD]
[TD]184[/TD]
[TD]0.250[/TD]
[TD]0.305[/TD]
[TD]0.375[/TD]
[TD]0.680[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2013 Predictions[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD]5940[/TD]
[TD]5208[/TD]
[TD]0.267[/TD]
[TD]0.337[/TD]
[TD]0.426[/TD]
[TD]0.763[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2012 Totals[/TD]
[TD]162[/TD]
[TD]6209[/TD]
[TD]5562[/TD]
[TD]0.260[/TD]
[TD]0.325[/TD]
[TD]0.390[/TD]
[TD]0.715[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Here are more of the projected counting numbers:

[TABLE="width: 498"]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]H[/TD]
[TD]2B[/TD]
[TD]3B[/TD]
[TD]HR[/TD]
[TD]RBI[/TD]
[TD]SB[/TD]
[TD]BB[/TD]
[TD]SO[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Joe Mauer[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[TD]173[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]81[/TD]
[TD]92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Ryan Doumit[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]121[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]63[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]92[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Drew Butera[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]17[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Chris Herrmann[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]28[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]1B[/TD]
[TD]Justin Morneau[/TD]
[TD]77[/TD]
[TD]152[/TD]
[TD]32[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]86[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]79[/TD]
[TD]99[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2B[/TD]
[TD]Brian Dozier[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]110[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]52[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]3B[/TD]
[TD]Trevor Plouffe[/TD]
[TD]78[/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]68[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]51[/TD]
[TD]121[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SS[/TD]
[TD]Pedro Florimon[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]UIF[/TD]
[TD]Jamey Carroll[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]77[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]43[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]UIF[/TD]
[TD]Eduardo Escobar[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]11[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]23[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]19[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LF[/TD]
[TD]Josh Willingham[/TD]
[TD]71[/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]27[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]104[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]87[/TD]
[TD]141[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CF[/TD]
[TD]Aaron Hicks[/TD]
[TD]64[/TD]
[TD]89[/TD]
[TD]14[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]33[/TD]
[TD]13[/TD]
[TD]49[/TD]
[TD]75[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]RF[/TD]
[TD]Chris Parmelee[/TD]
[TD]42[/TD]
[TD]99[/TD]
[TD]20[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[TD]15[/TD]
[TD]41[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]88[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OF[/TD]
[TD]Darin Mastroianni[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[TD]83[/TD]
[TD]12[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]31[/TD]
[TD]29[/TD]
[TD]38[/TD]
[TD]94[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OF[/TD]
[TD]Oswaldo Arcia[/TD]
[TD]16[/TD]
[TD]37[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[TD]21[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD]10[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OF[/TD]
[TD]Joe Benson[/TD]
[TD]24[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[TD]22[/TD]
[TD]8[/TD]
[TD]18[/TD]
[TD]51[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2013 Predictions[/TD]
[TD]688[/TD]
[TD]1388[/TD]
[TD]288[/TD]
[TD]25[/TD]
[TD]164[/TD]
[TD]669[/TD]
[TD]83[/TD]
[TD]614[/TD]
[TD]1095[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]2012 Totals[/TD]
[TD]701[/TD]
[TD]1448[/TD]
[TD]270[/TD]
[TD]30[/TD]
[TD]131[/TD]
[TD]667[/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]505[/TD]
[TD]1069[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

That's a lot of numbers to digest, so take your time... Are there some you agree with? Others that you disagree with? Which are the most egregious? And again, be sure to post your projections for some of all of the players as well!


  • Share:
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

More From MinnCentric


0 Comments