Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

Buxton: "Pissed" at Twins for No Call-Up Decision...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 04:59 AM
According to the Star Tribune, Byron Buxton is displeased with the Twins after not being called up in September of 2018. According to Byr...
Full topic ›

Derek Falvey Interview on 1500 ESPN

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 01:08 AM
Falvey discusses Sano, payroll, etc. http://www.1500espn....an-mackey-judd/
Full topic ›

Twins Minor League Coaches/Coordinators

Twins Minor League Talk Today, 01:01 AM
The Twins made some changes this offseason already in their minor league system. Pitching coaches Ivan Arteaga and Henry Bonilla were let...
Full topic ›

Harold Baines and Lee Smith are Hall of Famers

Other Baseball Yesterday, 11:33 PM
MLB announced tonight that a 16-person committee decided that DH Harold Baines and RP Lee Smith are now Hall of Famers.   Here is th...
Full topic ›

Article: Standing Pat as a Strategy

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 11:24 PM
'As we speak cruel time is fleeing. Seize the day, believing as little as possible in the morrow.' – HoraceBy all appearances, this is go...
Full topic ›

Rundown: The Next Eovaldi, Cleveland Trade Rumors and More

Nathan Eovaldi is one of the hottest free agents on the market right now. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported that the Astros have joined the mix of 10 teams confirmed to have interest in the 28-year-old right-hander. With that much competition, Eovaldi figures to land himself a handsome contract. It’s difficult to see the Twins coming out on top of the bidding war should they join the pursuit, but what they really should be doing is trying to find the next Nathan Eovaldi.
Image courtesy of © Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
Eovaldi had a solid 2018 season, but his postseason performance for the Red Sox really put him over the top. He missed the entire 2017 season and the two years prior to that pitched to a 4.45 ERA in 279 innings with the Yankees. Sounds a lot like Michael Pineda, right? Fingers crossed.

In trying to come up with a similar buy-low, high-upside option I landed on Eovaldi’s Boston teammate and fellow free agent Drew Pomeranz. From 2014-17, he had a 3.24 ERA in nearly 500 innings. Forearm issues caused him all sorts of problems in 2018, including a dip in velocity. He had a 6.08 ERA for the Red Sox last year and was demoted to the bullpen. So obviously there are some red flags, but MLB Trade Rumors predicted that he’d be available on a one-year, $6 million contract. I’d take that gamble.

I floated that idea out on Twitter, but Darren Wolfson of KSTP was kind enough to let me know the Twins had not made any contact with Pomeranz at this time. Maybe that will change once they address more urgent matters, who knows? Also, for those wondering, Drew is not related to former Twin Cities broadcaster and minor league pitcher Mike Pomeranz.

Doogie also noted on Twitter that the Twins have been in contact with Patrick Corbin’s agent. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Corbin, the top pitcher on this year’s free agent market, is expecting to receive six-year offers. Corbin has met with the Phillies, Nationals and is expected to meet with the Yankees. Jim Pohlad is notoriously averse to long commitments, and there’s some logic in that stance, so it still seems the Twins would be a long shot to land the lefty.

It seems pretty odd that Cleveland is apparently forced to shed a lot of payroll this offseason, but even more strange is who they’re inclined to move. Bob Nightengale of the USA Today reported that there’s a sense the team is more amenable to send away Trevor Bauer than Corey Kluber or Carlos Carrasco. Not only is Bauer the youngest of that trio, he also had the best 2018 season of that group. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported today that the Dodgers are in trade talks with Cleveland and its believed one of the members of their rotation would be headed to LA if any deal is agreed upon.

The Twins could certainly use a boost in their rotation, but I doubt Cleveland would be motivated to deal one of their best players to their top division rival. Still, someone like Bauer potentially leaving Cleveland, along with their other pending free agents, will obviously give the Twins better odds of winning the division.

Rob Huff of MLB Trade Rumors projected the Twins to have a $125 million payroll for 2019. That means they'd have $48 million to spend this offseason. Given the comments by ownership and the front office, I would be surprised if they went that high. But again, if Cleveland sheds talent the Twins should absolutely get aggressive.

The Indians are already losing Michael Brantley, Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. The fact that there’s so much speculation that they’re looking to shed payroll means they’re certainly not going to be signing any big free agents.

Michael Clair of Cut 4 predicted that the Twins would win the AL Central next season. One of the things he points to in the team bridging the gap to Cleveland is luck. So many things went poorly for the Twins in 2018 while Cleveland avoided a lot of those unforeseen issues, outside of their bullpen problems. If they traded Bauer and one of Francisco Lindor or Jose Ramirez was forced to miss a significant amount of time, that team would be very ordinary.

The first Twins Hot Stove Show of the offseason was recorded Wednesday night. You can listen back to the full episode here. Derek Falvey and Rocco Baldelli were the guests. There was a lot of talk about culture, leadership and forming partnerships.

A couple members of the 2018 Twins are moving on to other organizations. La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Trib provided details on Jeff Pickler joining the Reds coaching staff and Chris Gimenez becoming the game planning coach for the Dodgers.

Over at Twinkie Town, Hayden looked back at the 10 dumbest things that happened to the Twins in 2018. I laughed, I cried, I realized there was lots of dumb stuff I’d already blocked out of my memory.

A name you can expect to be hearing a lot is Yusei Kikuchi. The Seibu Lions are expected to post the 27-year-old lefty next week. He’s already in the US and was spotted at an Anaheim Ducks game. Here’s some video of Kikuchi on the mound:

I haven’t seen the Twins linked to Kikuchi in any way, but he seems like a player they should definitely have interest in. He has a 2.81 ERA in more than 1,000 innings in the NPB. If you’re interested in learning more, Yankees site River Ave Blues did an excellent job profiling Kikuchi.

  • nclahammer likes this

  • Share:
  • submit to reddit
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

94 Comments

Photo
nicksaviking
Nov 29 2018 04:23 PM

 

how do you plan to get great pitching, if you won't trade top prospects, or sign guys to long term deals?

 

They could develop them themselves, like most of the rest of the league does.

 

They could develop them themselves, like most of the rest of the league does.

 

so, punt on having another great pitcher for how many more years? Which guy is coming that you have lots of confidence in? Because most of the ranking sites love their hitting a lot more than pitching.

 

houston traded for 2. The yankees are about to sign another FA after trading for one. boston? trades and FAs. the Angels signed the best international one available. Philly? FA and early picks. 

 

Twins have decided not to use high picks on a SP with this FO so far, do you think that will change? If so, why would you think that?

 

Most of the rest of the league doesn't have great starters, that's why they cost so much in money or trade. 

 

 

    • SD Buhr likes this

 

how do you plan to get great pitching, if you won't trade top prospects, or sign guys to long term deals?

There is the obvious way of drafting/developing your own prospects, but personally, I'd like to see them target youngish big-league pitchers with ace-potential and trust the development staff to raise them to the ace level. That is basically what the Astros did with Cole, the Indians did with Bauer, the Tigers did with Scherzer, and the Yankees are trying to do that with Paxton. None of those deals required a top-10 prospect.

    • glunn, birdwatcher, DocBauer and 1 other like this

 

There is the obvious way of drafting/developing your own prospects, but personally, I'd like to see them target youngish big-league pitchers with ace-potential and trust the development staff to raise them to the ace level. That is basically what the Astros did with Cole, the Indians did with Bauer, the Tigers did with Scherzer, and the Yankees are trying to do that with Paxton. None of those deals required a top-10 prospect.

 

Unfortunately they did not go get Paxton.

 

Unfortunately they did not go get Paxton.

I know. I was pretty disappointed by this myself. The way I see it, this team need to make some high-variance moves in order to move the needle enough for them to be legitimate contenders with the Indians/Astros/Red Sox/Yankees with this current core of players. And it turns out that the off-season has had some reasonably costed, high-variance moves! Donaldson to Atlanta on a 1-year deal. The Paxton trade. Both of those would have looked good for this team.

    • USAFChief, birdwatcher, Mike Sixel and 6 others like this
Photo
ChrisKnutson
Nov 29 2018 05:25 PM

how do you plan to get great pitching, if you won't trade top prospects, or sign guys to long term deals?


Why trade for Thor now, that’s the type of move that teams make when they’re ready to make a (serious) WS run, not when the future’s uncertain. Besides, we already have tons of talented arms who could reach the big leagues (and perform) as early as next season (Romero/Graterol/Stewart/Gonsalves/Thorpe/Enlow/Alcala/Wells).

While I agree that we need add a starter (via trade or free agency), I’m not sure it’d be in best interest of the club’s future if it were someone as expensive as Syndergaard/Keuchel/Corbin. And while I’d love it if the Twins signed Eovaldi, That’s highly unlikely due to Houston and Boston’s presence, so at the moment we’re probably better off bargain shopping for arms like Shields, Holland, Buchholz, and Sanchez (again) or trading for someone like Marcus Stroman.
Photo
strumdatjaguar
Nov 29 2018 07:04 PM

Doesn't look like Kikuchi will ever win a Gold Glove with the way he finishes his pitches with a one legged hop!

Some great arguments back and forth regarding a trade for Thor. And I see merits on BITH sides of the argument. Nobody asked me for my opinion, but I'm going to throw mine out there anyway, lol.

I believe the team needs to make moves to "move the needle forward" absolutely. And if the Mets are really motivated to sell, I'd be interested in buying. The reason is simple, a quality arm at the top of the rotation for 3 more years. Obviously, it also depends on the cost. While still prospects, I don't include Lewis or Khirilloff but anyone else in the system and MOST of the 40 man is open. (Trading Berrios or Gibson to net Thor doesn't really make sense). This includes, as I mentioned earlier today, maybe a package that looks something like Kepler, Romero, Gordon and 1 or Gonsalves, Thorpe or Graterol. Perhaps a 5th top 20 prospect.

The counter, of course, is for the Twins and their new staff to work with the talent on hand, openers or not, and further look at and develop existing potential for at least half a season before making a big move. And if we're truly looking at building from the ground floor up and sustainable success, this makes a ton of sense to me. Especially with the new staff in place. At least for now.

While we have a lot of truly frustrating unknowns, Buxton and Sano amongst them, this team is not good of talent and potential. And you can talk all you want about a late surge in 2017 to reach the playoffs, but they DID do so while winning 85 games. (Reminder, the Indians didn't look so great until a surge either).

There is no reason to extrapolate the FA moves of last season blowing up even though they looked smart. Not again. But if we all knew before the 2018 season started that Santana would be a complete non factor, that Castro would be the same, and Buxton, and Sano almost as bad, that Polanco would miss half a season, that Dozier would be average to awful for the entire season, how many of us might have predicted a 100 loss team vs 84 to the bad?

This team needs a couple smart additions still, and there is opportunity to do so. It also needs some guys to be healthy and take a step forward. But from the top down, all is nkt pure doom and gloom. Thor for 3 years with Berrios and Gibson looks pretty good to me. You add a couple nice BP arms and continue to work with what is on hand, you have the makings of a really nice staff. Decisions on Odorizzi and Pineda can be made later.

You have to make the call to see if you have a match. But while still "prospects", you have to consider the talent and potential of both Lewis and Khirilloff and what they could mean to the franchise in the next year or two.
    • MN_ExPat and Original Whizzinator like this

Why trade for Thor now, that’s the type of move that teams make when they’re ready to make a (serious) WS run, not when the future’s uncertain. Besides, we already have tons of talented arms who could reach the big leagues (and perform) as early as next season (Romero/Graterol/Stewart/Gonsalves/Thorpe/Enlow/Alcala/Wells).

While I agree that we need add a starter (via trade or free agency), I’m not sure it’d be in best interest of the club’s future if it were someone as expensive as Syndergaard/Keuchel/Corbin. And while I’d love it if the Twins signed Eovaldi, That’s highly unlikely due to Houston and Boston’s presence, so at the moment we’re probably better off bargain shopping for arms like Shields, Holland, Buchholz, and Sanchez (again) or trading for someone like Marcus Stroman.


When you aim low, you remain a mediocre team. It's really as simple as that. What are those bargain bin arms going to do for this team? Help them win 82 games instead of 78?
    • USAFChief and KirbyDome89 like this
Photo
ChrisKnutson
Nov 29 2018 09:59 PM

When you aim low, you remain a mediocre team. It's really as simple as that. What are those bargain bin arms going to do for this team? Help them win 82 games instead of 78?

I’m not saying that there’s never a time to go “all in,” but there’s no question that right now’s not the time, especially if it means giving up future quality players like any of Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, or Romero. Now if the FO can acquire Syndergaard without giving up any of those prospects, then by all means go right ahead, but I feel we may need to “grossly overpay” in order to get the deal done; which is something most fans (myself included) may not feel comfortable with, especially when the guy we’d be trading for hasn’t exactly been as healthy or consistent as one would hope for when giving up high end talent.

Lastly, you need to remember that this is a mediocre team (and Syndergaard won’t change that), but it won’t be forever as I expect the Twin’s core to really take a step forward next season (so don’t subtract from it). And if that happens, surely the FO will feel much more confident in seriously pursuing FAs like Arenado/Ozuna/Andrus/Jansen/Vizcaino/Wheeler/Teheran next offseason.

I’m not saying that there’s never a time to go “all in,” but there’s no question that right now’s not the time, especially if it means giving up future quality players like any of Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, or Romero. Now if the FO can acquire Syndergaard without giving up any of those prospects, then by all means go right ahead, but I feel we may need to “grossly overpay” in order to get the deal done; which is something most fans (myself included) may not feel comfortable with, especially when the guy we’d be trading for hasn’t exactly been as healthy or consistent as one would hope for when giving up high end talent. Lastly, you need to remember that this is a mediocre team (and Syndergaard won’t change that), but it won’t be forever as I expect the Twin’s core to really take a step forward next season. And if that happens, surely the FO will feel much more confident in pursuing FAs like Arenado/Ozuna/Andrus/Jansen/Vizcaino/Wheeler/Teheran next offseason.


If you believe the core will take a step forward next season then you should want a top of the rotation guy like Thor already in place so he can help the team win more games. And who knows, make the playoffs because of that.
    • USAFChief and KirbyDome89 like this
Photo
ChrisKnutson
Nov 29 2018 10:25 PM

If you believe the core will take a step forward next season then you should want a top of the rotation guy like Thor already in place so he can help the team win more games. And who knows, make the playoffs because of that.


Taking a step forward is much different than maximizing a team’s potential; which is something I don’t expect to happen. Regardless, I understand and agree with the point your getting at; we need someone to sit next to Berrios at the top of the rotation, I just don’t think Syndergaard’s the guy. And while I’d prefer Eovaldi, I’m not entirely opposed to signing Keuchel (Corbin too, but cmon), but assuming they both sign somewhere else we’ll likely have to settle for Holland or Happ which is something I wouldn’t really complain about.
"Rob Huff of MLB Trade Rumors predicts the Twins will have a $125MM payroll for 2019.
That leaves them with $48MM remaining to spend this off season."

WRONG!!

The reality is that should Mr. Pohlad think from a perspective other than that
of a Ultra Conservative BANKER, he would find that the Luxury Cap is $206MM.
That means the $77MM already "Committed" can be increased by $129MM without
running afoul of the League.
The Pohlad Treasure Chest, which was accumulated off the backs of the citizens of the
Twin Cities whenever they: rode a bus, went to their bank or drank a Pepsi could easily
handle shelling out an additional $80MM

Just think about the team that could be fielded with an extra $130MM !
Wouldn't more people attend games?
Wouldn't more people purchase souvenirs?
Wouldn't more concessions be sold?
Wouldn't it build excitement in the Twin's market?
Wouldn't both players and agents give the Twins more serious consideration?

It WON'T HAPPEN!
NO GUTS!!

how do you plan to get great pitching, if you won't trade top prospects, or sign guys to long term deals?


I don't believe he said that he wouldn't trade top prospects, just not that specific one. He didn't seem to suggest that he wouldn't trade Kiriloff.
I'd trade anyone in the system for the right player, except Lewis. I'm not trading him for anyone. You are right that this team needs front line pitching, but it also needs a superstar.
There are no guarantees, but Lewis seems poised to become one.
    • birdwatcher and ChrisKnutson like this
Photo
Major League Ready
Nov 30 2018 08:15 AM

 

how do you plan to get great pitching, if you won't trade top prospects, or sign guys to long term deals?

Mike,

 

A couple years ago someone made a similar statement. I put up a chart of all of the playoff teams and the source of their SPs. It was overwhelmingly how grown. Some were drafted and some were trades before the player became established. Granted, that has shifted some the last couple years.

 

There were 2 relatively high profile free agent SPslast year. Collectively they produced 2WAR for $51M (Arietta-2 / Darvish-0)

 

There were not any high profile SPs in 2017. Rich Hill was the highest price FA at less than $13M AAV.

 

In 2016, there were 4 high profile signings. Two of them (Price / Cueto) produced well in 2016. The other two not so much. Production went down for the group in 2017. Only Greinke was good. The other 3 produced 1.6 - 1.0 WAR.Production down even further in 2018 where this group averaged 1.825WAR

 

2018

21.00 / 126 Darvish ….. 0 
25.00 / 75 Arietta…... 2 

 

2017 N/A  
    
2016    
34.40 / 206 - Zack Greinke 2.2/5.1/3.5
31.00 / 217 - David Price 4.5/1.6/2.7
23.00 / 110 - Jordan Zimmerman 1.3/ 1/ 0.9
21.66 / 130 - Johnny Cueto 5.5/1.2/ 0.2
Average WAR per year ………....3.375 2.225 1.825

 

The premise that signing this type of free agent has a high probability of making the team better is not supported by recent history and the history is the front end where the production should be very good. All four of these deals look bleak in terms of the final years. They produced 1WAR/$18M last year and that's going to look good compared to the final years. 

    • birdwatcher, Danchat, MN_ExPat and 1 other like this
Photo
KirbyDome89
Nov 30 2018 09:19 AM

 

Lastly, you need to remember that this is a mediocre team (and Syndergaard won’t change that), 

 Adding one of the best pitchers in baseball to a rotation that desperately needs help would absolutely push this team beyond simply being mediocre. 

 

Teams reach an elite level my making multiple moves forward (from within and outside the organization) over time. Adding Syndergaard would be another step in that direction. I'll never understand the notion that a team needs to "wait," until they're "one player away," to add serious talent via trade or FA. If they won't trade for or sign anybody how can we expect that they ever reach that point? The "they're not there yet," argument becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. 

    • USAFChief, Twins33, SD Buhr and 1 other like this

Mike,

A couple years ago someone made a similar statement. I put up a chart of all of the playoff teams and the source of their SPs. It was overwhelmingly how grown. Some were drafted and some were trades before the player became established. Granted, that has shifted some the last couple years.

There were 2 relatively high profile free agent SPs last year. Collectively they produced 2WAR for $51M (Arietta-2 / Darvish-0)

There were not any high profile SPs in 2017. Rich Hill was the highest price FA at less than $13M AAV.

In 2016, there were 4 high profile signings. Two of them (Price / Cueto) produced well in 2016. The other two not so much. Production went down for the group in 2017. Only Greinke was good. The other 3 produced 1.6 - 1.0 WAR. Production down even further in 2018 where this group averaged 1.825WAR

2018
21.00 / 126 Darvish ….. 0
25.00 / 75 Arietta …... 2

2017 N/A

2016
34.40 / 206 - Zack Greinke 2.2/5.1/3.5
31.00 / 217 - David Price 4.5/1.6/2.7
23.00 / 110 - Jordan Zimmerman 1.3/ 1/ 0.9
21.66 / 130 - Johnny Cueto 5.5/1.2/ 0.2
Average WAR per year ……….... 3.375 2.225 1.825

The premise that signing this type of free agent has a high probability of making the team better is not supported by recent history and the history is the front end where the production should be very good. All four of these deals look bleak in terms of the final years. They produced 1WAR/$18M last year and that's going to look good compared to the final years.


The argument in this thread isn't signing free agents. It is about making a trade for Syndergaard. Who's projected to make a little less than $6 million this season with 3 years of control.

There are folks here who want to wait until the stars align perfectly before thinking about making a trade such as this. I think I can speak for Mike too in the next sentence. Making trades like this, for top end pitchers with multiple years of control, helps immensely to open the window of contention.
    • USAFChief, Mike Sixel, Kelly Vance and 2 others like this

 

The argument in this thread isn't signing free agents. It is about making a trade for Syndergaard. Who's projected to make a little less than $6 million this season with 3 years of control.

There are folks here who want to wait until the stars align perfectly before thinking about making a trade such as this. I think I can speak for Mike too in the next sentence. Making trades like this, for top end pitchers with multiple years of control, helps immensely to open the window of contention.

I have 2 questions.How much do the Mets want (I have heard it is a haul of close to major league ready talent).I would make Sano, Kepler and a prospect available and if they want more think very hard.

2.Is there something about Syndergaard we do not know (the GM is his former agent and certainly knows everything about him).This issue is what makes me pause since Mets could get a bigger haul for trading 2 years of DeGroom. 

    • MN_ExPat likes this

 

Some great arguments back and forth regarding a trade for Thor. And I see merits on BITH sides of the argument. Nobody asked me for my opinion, but I'm going to throw mine out there anyway, lol.

I believe the team needs to make moves to "move the needle forward" absolutely. And if the Mets are really motivated to sell, I'd be interested in buying. The reason is simple, a quality arm at the top of the rotation for 3 more years. Obviously, it also depends on the cost. While still prospects, I don't include Lewis or Khirilloff but anyone else in the system and MOST of the 40 man is open. (Trading Berrios or Gibson to net Thor doesn't really make sense). This includes, as I mentioned earlier today, maybe a package that looks something like Kepler, Romero, Gordon and 1 or Gonsalves, Thorpe or Graterol. Perhaps a 5th top 20 prospect.

The counter, of course, is for the Twins and their new staff to work with the talent on hand, openers or not, and further look at and develop existing potential for at least half a season before making a big move. And if we're truly looking at building from the ground floor up and sustainable success, this makes a ton of sense to me. Especially with the new staff in place. At least for now.

While we have a lot of truly frustrating unknowns, Buxton and Sano amongst them, this team is not good of talent and potential. And you can talk all you want about a late surge in 2017 to reach the playoffs, but they DID do so while winning 85 games. (Reminder, the Indians didn't look so great until a surge either).

There is no reason to extrapolate the FA moves of last season blowing up even though they looked smart. Not again. But if we all knew before the 2018 season started that Santana would be a complete non factor, that Castro would be the same, and Buxton, and Sano almost as bad, that Polanco would miss half a season, that Dozier would be average to awful for the entire season, how many of us might have predicted a 100 loss team vs 84 to the bad?

This team needs a couple smart additions still, and there is opportunity to do so. It also needs some guys to be healthy and take a step forward. But from the top down, all is nkt pure doom and gloom. Thor for 3 years with Berrios and Gibson looks pretty good to me. You add a couple nice BP arms and continue to work with what is on hand, you have the makings of a really nice staff. Decisions on Odorizzi and Pineda can be made later.

You have to make the call to see if you have a match. But while still "prospects", you have to consider the talent and potential of both Lewis and Khirilloff and what they could mean to the franchise in the next year or two.

 

Many of us predicted Santana would be a non factor. That wasn't all that hard to see. Not one FA move was a needle mover. None was for more than 2 years. So while they were fine, none were truly meaningful, even if they had worked out. Do you really think either Lewis or Kiriiloff will be here in the next year? That seems, I'm going to say, unlikely.

I have 2 questions. How much do the Mets want (I have heard it is a haul of close to major league ready talent). I would make Sano, Kepler and a prospect available and if they want more think very hard.
2. Is there something about Syndergaard we do not know (the GM is his former agent and certainly knows everything about him). This issue is what makes me pause since Mets could get a bigger haul for trading 2 years of DeGroom.


I don't know I'm not in the trade negotiation. I said in this thread no one in the Twins' organization is off the table for him IMO.

There's probably less backlash trading Syndergaard than trading DeGrom who had a historically good season.

 

Mike,

 

A couple years ago someone made a similar statement. I put up a chart of all of the playoff teams and the source of their SPs. It was overwhelmingly how grown. Some were drafted and some were trades before the player became established. Granted, that has shifted some the last couple years.

 

There were 2 relatively high profile free agent SPslast year. Collectively they produced 2WAR for $51M (Arietta-2 / Darvish-0)

 

There were not any high profile SPs in 2017. Rich Hill was the highest price FA at less than $13M AAV.

 

In 2016, there were 4 high profile signings. Two of them (Price / Cueto) produced well in 2016. The other two not so much. Production went down for the group in 2017. Only Greinke was good. The other 3 produced 1.6 - 1.0 WAR.Production down even further in 2018 where this group averaged 1.825WAR

 

2018

21.00 / 126 Darvish ….. 0 
25.00 / 75 Arietta…... 2 

 

2017 N/A  
    
2016    
34.40 / 206 - Zack Greinke 2.2/5.1/3.5
31.00 / 217 - David Price 4.5/1.6/2.7
23.00 / 110 - Jordan Zimmerman 1.3/ 1/ 0.9
21.66 / 130 - Johnny Cueto 5.5/1.2/ 0.2
Average WAR per year ………....3.375 2.225 1.825

 

The premise that signing this type of free agent has a high probability of making the team better is not supported by recent history and the history is the front end where the production should be very good. All four of these deals look bleak in terms of the final years. They produced 1WAR/$18M last year and that's going to look good compared to the final years. 

 

Overwhelmingly is not completely. Nor am I saying they have to sign the top FA.....how about not the cheap, 1 year types? How about aiming somewhat higher than that?

 

Houston, Boston, NYY.....they are not totally home grown. Or the Cubs. Or likely playoff team Philly. 

 

It's fine if you all want to wait on prospects, but then trade off every veteran. Because this minor league system isn't close to producing MLB help right now.

 

The odds of a prospect working out are even lower than a FA working out, aren't they? Like, 1 in how many tens or hundreds?

 

I keep loving how people are ripping the Darvish deal, while at the same time praising the FO for being 2nd highest bidders. Clearly the FO disagrees, or they weren't really trying for Davish.

    • KirbyDome89 likes this
Photo
Tom Froemming
Nov 30 2018 09:44 AM

I think Twins fans to some degree are stuck in this mentality that we need starting pitching. Two things on that topic ...

 

1) That's not a team weakness right now. Berrios, Gibson and Odorizzi were all top 25 WAR for AL pitchers. Add Pineda and a bunch of good options for the fifth spot and you've got a playoff-caliber rotation. This team needs to score more runs and get a better performance from its bullpen.

 

2) Take a look at the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers rotation. Their best starter last year was roughly as good as Odorizzi. They still went 96-67 and were a game away from the World Series.

 

There's no such thing as too much pitching, and the rotation does thin out after next season with Gibby, Odo and Pineda all set to become free agents, but I still wouldn't do anything drastic such as trade away Lewis to upgrade the rotation. 

    • birdwatcher, Twins33, DocBauer and 3 others like this

I think Twins fans to some degree are stuck in this mentality that we need starting pitching. Two things on that topic ...

1) That's not a team weakness right now. Berrios, Gibson and Odorizzi were all top 25 WAR for AL pitchers. Add Pineda and a bunch of good options for the fifth spot and you've got a playoff-caliber rotation. This team needs to score more runs and get a better performance from its bullpen.

2) Take a look at the 2018 Milwaukee Brewers rotation. Their best starter last year was roughly as good as Odorizzi. They still went 96-67 and were a game away from the World Series.

There's no such thing as too much pitching, and the rotation does thin out after next season with Gibby, Odo and Pineda all set to become free agents, but I still wouldn't do anything drastic such as trade away Lewis to upgrade the rotation.


Attached Thumbnails

  • Attached Image: Screenshot_20181130-095443.png
    • Mike Sixel and KirbyDome89 like this
Just because the Twins are no longer ranked 30th in MLB in pitching doesn't mean it's good.
    • SD Buhr and Rigby like this
Photo
Tom Froemming
Nov 30 2018 10:05 AM

 

Yup.

 

Lance Lynn 5.10 ERA in 20 starts

Ervin Santana 8.03 ERA in five starts

 

The big X-factor will be how they react when someone struggles. They can't afford to keep sinking innings into lost causes. With the amount of options they have waiting in the wings, that shouldn't be necessary. 

    • birdwatcher, Danchat, Major League Ready and 2 others like this

Similar Articles


by Ted Schwerzler , 20 Sep 2018
Photo


by Seth Stohs , 21 Aug 2018
Photo


by Steve Lein , 21 Aug 2018
Photo


by Tom Froemming , 11 Aug 2018
Photo


by John Bonnes , 17 Dec 2017
Photo