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Stupid Math Tricks: ERA

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:58 PM
I did some math.Assumingi) the Pythagorean theory of winning percentage, andii) the Twins score the same number of runs in '18 as they di...
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Article: Twins 2018 Position Analysis: Right Field

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:56 PM
Is Max Kepler a full-time player, or destined for platoon duty? The jury is still out, and while he has time yet to prove his worth again...
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Article: Can Ryan Pressly Put It All Together?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:48 PM
In five seasons since being selected in the Rule 5 Draft by the Twins, Ryan Pressly has oscillated between very good (2016 version), and...
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Article: Twins To Sign Lance Lynn

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 06:45 PM
The Twins offseason puzzle is now complete. Jon Heyman reported that the Twins were closing in on a deal for free agent starting pitcher...
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Minor Leaguers and Minimum Wage

Other Baseball Today, 05:58 PM
https://www.twinciti...ens-operations/   We've had a lot of discussion about how the minor leaguers often do not earn a livable wage...
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Rosenthal: Twins Agree to Deal With Addison Reed

Most of the attention this offseason has been dedicated to the Twins' pursuit of top starting pitching options, but it appears they just made a significant upgrade to the bullpen. According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Twins have agreed to a contract with Addison Reed, who was the third-ranked relief pitcher on the market per MLB Trade Rumors.
Image courtesy of Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports
According to Rosenthal's report, which has since been confirmed by several other reputable sources on Twitter, the two sides have agreed to a two-year pact.

UPDATE: Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reported the deal at two-years, $16.75 million on Twitter.

MLB Trade Rumors predicted Reed would fetch a four-year, $36 million deal. In that same piece, the site ranked Reed 16th among its top 50 free agents, third among relievers, trailing only Wade Davis and Greg Holland.

According to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Reed turned down longer-term deals in order to come to Minnesota.

Reed is from California, but spent the first three seasons of his career with the Chicago White Sox. Here's a look at his numbers from Baseball-Reference:
Attached Image: Reed Numbers.png
Reed is the third relief pitcher the Twins have signed to a major league deal this offseason, joining Fernando Rodney and Zach Duke. Once the deal has been made official, the Twins will need to make room for Reed on their 40-man roster.

It appeared in mid-December that Reed was Philadelphia bound, but a deal never was finalized and the Phillies signed Tommy Hunter instead. There have been three relievers signed to three-year deals, all by the Colorado Rockies (Davis at $52 million, Bryan Shaw at $27 million and Jake McGee at $27 million), but it appears the Twins have been rewarded for waiting out the market. Reed's deal comes in just over what Pat Neshek got from the Phillies (two-years, $16.25 million) and just behind what Juan Nicasio got from the Mariners (two-years, $17 million).

Why were the Twins able to sign Reed to such a modest deal? That's a great question. Taking a look at his velocity numbers over at Brooks Baseball, there doesn't seem to be any cause for concern.
Attached Image: Reedmph.png
Here's Reed's average fastball velocity the past four seasons: 93.33, 93.27, 93.22 and 92.93. So he has lost 0.4 mph over that span, but his swinging strike rate of 13.7 percent in 2017 was the highest he's posted since his rookie year.

What do you think about this signing and the overall upgrades made to the bullpen?

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Carole Keller
Jan 13 2018 12:36 PM
Okay ... trending up ... now let’s get Darvish done
    • birdwatcher, Thrylos, Blake and 12 others like this
Comrade Bork
Jan 13 2018 12:39 PM


    • bluechipper, sploorp, Vanimal46 and 4 others like this

Here's up to date image of Salary Obligations

Had to make a choice in the bullpen and Duffy lost a coin flip


011318 Addison Reed


    • VOMG, caninatl04 and Dakota Diver like this

Still need to fill that 5th starter spot....hmmm

I think this signing confirms an 8 man bullpen
You should eliminate last bench spot instead
Seems like a good move!
    • tarheeltwinsfan, sploorp and Dozier's Glorious Hair like this

Very nice addition! Great to see the front office getting one of the top relief options! Not only that, but it's a very reasonable contract that shouldn't limit other moves.

    • Deduno Abides, tarheeltwinsfan, sploorp and 6 others like this
Jan 13 2018 01:09 PM

Good move, good terms.

    • Twins33, beckmt, snepp and 6 others like this
Twinfan & Dad
Jan 13 2018 01:10 PM
Bullpen now vastly improved. Dont forget about our young arms that also may help at some point this season. Now trade for Cole or Archer. Shorter term committment than Darvich and much cheaper for now. Buys us time to see what the young guys look like and how May comes back. Darvich is just going to take too long a contract at 25mm plus per year. He has too many question marks and has a history of the injury bug.
    • howieramone2, caninatl04 and Original Whizzinator like this
Jan 13 2018 01:13 PM

Here's up to date image of Salary Obligations
Had to make a choice in the bullpen and Duffy lost a coin flip

011318 Addison Reed

Kinda weird that now we have an excess of good middle relievers. Interested to see what they do, I'm assuming May starts in the minors but what do you do with Duffy or if several of our minor league guys start knocking on the door? Also what if May looks really good coming back? I know it's a good problem to have but it will be interesting to see if they just hold those guys down or trade some of them. I'd be perfectly fine with our roster if we can come out with 1 more starter (preferably Darvish or Cole) but I'd maybe like to see an upgrade at DH as well, unless Sano has to shift over to DH and then we could sign Frazier
Isnt this the 6th largest free agent signing in team history?


Actually saw this happening up until about a week ago. Then, just felt it was too quiet and were focusing solely on the rotation for now. Wow! Great move!
    • sploorp, Dozier's Glorious Hair and Original Whizzinator like this

Now we are talking - nice signing!

    • sploorp and Dozier's Glorious Hair like this
John Bonnes
Jan 13 2018 01:23 PM
I don’t want to rain on this parade, but this has to mean theyre out of the running for Darvish. This team isn’t going to have a $135M payroll.
    • Oxtung, tarheeltwinsfan and Respy like this

By my count that puts the 40-man at 41...Personally hoping for a trade to clear it up


Who do you think gets dropped?







Jan 13 2018 01:23 PM

The fact he wanted to be in the Midwest, to the point he was willing to give up a year of security, is interesting. 

    • Jerr, sploorp and caninatl04 like this


You should eliminate last bench spot instead


Added an 8th BP spot to my Twins Payroll Tool sheet (if you make a copy of the latest version it will be updated)


I don’t want to rain on this parade, but this has to mean theyre out of the running for Darvish. This team isn’t going to have a $135M payroll.

I don't agree... I think they are very much still in the running for Darvish. I believe they're at around $105M right now and maybe Darvish gets $25M a year? Plus they could trade Gibson if that happens and save $4.3M. I think they could house a payroll in the $120Ms.

    • Twins33, laloesch, Vanimal46 and 1 other like this

I would figure Buddy Boshers will be the first removed from the 40 man roster. After that you can go to Gabriel Moya, Aaron Slegers, & Tyler Kinley.


To be honest could just as well make Tyler Kinley the first sacrificial lamb cut from the roster. Why waste a roster spot on a rule 5 pitcher.

    • tarheeltwinsfan, sploorp and caninatl04 like this


I don’t want to rain on this parade, but this has to mean theyre out of the running for Darvish. This team isn’t going to have a $135M payroll.


Too Cold for anyone to be raining on the parade...it could happen



    • glunn, Twins33, Mike Frasier Law and 3 others like this
This signing could mean Duffey spends some time in Rochester to see if he can stretch out to be a starter?
And I really hope this doesn’t mean the team is out on Darvish.
    • jorgenswest, tarheeltwinsfan, sploorp and 1 other like this
Jan 13 2018 01:43 PM

I just took a look in TD's Offseason Handbook and couldn't find even a mention of Addison Reed. Oopsie?

Jan 13 2018 01:43 PM
I would guess that the order would have been out on Darvish sign Reed rather than we just signed Reed now we don’t have money for Darvish.

The additions of Reed, Rodney and Duke add nicely to the bullpen at minimal commitment.
Winston Smith
Jan 13 2018 01:45 PM

The Hughes contract sure stinks without that it would be a lot easier to sign a top pitcher.

Not much next year, money to sign Harper!!! funny thought.

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