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Monitor: Manager of the Year and Fired?

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 03:39 AM
Aside from the first team to go from 100 losses to the playoffs (sort of), they may also be the first team to fire a manager just before...
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Article: Charting A Twins Playoff Rotation

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 03:10 AM
What once seemed unthinkable is now a crystallizing reality: The Twins are in all likelihood headed toward a one-game Wild Card showdown...
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Let's remember some "Twins guys" thread

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 01:16 AM
Best Minnesota trip in a long time for me, Vikes win, and Twins win (both big time!) in the midst of tonight's ass kicking started talkin...
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Kennys Vargas....yes again.

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 11:54 PM
Dont blame another Vargas article on me! Well...not entirely anyway. My mind seldom shuts off, sometimes works in weird and mysterious wa...
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Article: MIN 10, DET 4: Deja Vu All Over Again

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:30 PM
For the second straight game the Twins beat the Tigers by the score of 10-4. Jorge Polanco continued his second-half surge, hitting a dou...
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Recap: Polanco Homers Twice as Twins Split Doubleheader

The Twins fell just short of mounting an impressive comeback in the first game of their doubleheader Monday, but they made sure no such effort would be required in the second game. After losing 7-6, the Twins jumped out to a huge early lead in the nightcap and cruised to a 10-2 victory. So, in reality, they won the day 16-9. Shoulda challenged Chicago to a winner-take-all situation. Where’s that Pythagoras when you need him?
Image courtesy of Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
Game 1 Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs)
Attached Image: WinEx821_1.png
Top 3 Twins per WPA: Dozier .117 | Polanco .092 | Busenitz .032

Tim Melville’s Twins debut did not go well. The 27-year-old gave up two runs in the first inning, cruised through the next two frames before getting knocked around again in the fourth. Here’s how things went: walk, single, three-run homer, strikeout, walk, hit batsman. At that point Molitor had enough.

Melville ended with 3.1 innings, five runs on four hits and three walks with four strikeouts. Nik Turley pitched the next 3.2 innings, giving up two runs.

Melville topped out at 96.6 mph, per Brooks Baseball (though their pitch classifications were all wonky for him) and Turley’s max was 95.7 mph. So those two can bring the heat, but as we know by watching Bartolo Colon, there’s a lot more to pitching than velo.

The Twins trailed 7-1 heading into the sixth inning, but battled back to make things very interesting. Jorge Polanco provided a three-run homer to bring the Twins within a run in the eighth, but the comeback effort fell short.

Alan Busenitz pitched a perfect eighth inning and struck out one batter. He now has six-straight scoreless appearances, a streak that covers 9.0 innings. Brian Dozier was 2-for-4 with a double, a walk and a run scored. Eduardo Escobar was 2-for-5 with a double and an RBI.

Game 2 Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs)
Attached Image: WinEx821_2.png
Top 3 Twins per WPA: Polanco .218 | Gee .113 | Dozier .109

The Twins basically put this one away shortly after it got started. Polanco and Dozier each hit a three-run homer in the second inning to give Dillon Gee a big cushion to work with early. Through four innings, Gee was perfect and threw just 42 pitches.

When it was all said and done, Gee pitched 6.0 innings and gave up one run on two hits. He didn’t walk a batter, which was huge given the big lead he was afforded, and had four strikeouts. This was Gee’s first start with the Twins, and he has now has a 1.93 ERA over 18.2 innings to go with a 0.80 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 with the club.

Byron Buxton and Jason Castro added to the offensive explosion, providing homers of their own, as the Twins hit four home runs. Here they are:

Buxton now has a 12-game hitting streak. He, Dozier and Castro all had multi-hit games. Castro also drew a walk and scored three runs. Tyler Duffey was perfect over the seventh and eighth innings, but he was sent back out for the ninth and ran into some trouble. He gave up a solo homer, but still finished out the game to earn the three-inning save, the first of his career.

Postgame With Gee

Twins W-L Record
Overall: 64-60
Last 10: 6-4
Last 20: 14-6
Last 40: 21-19
Last 80: 39-41

AL Central Standings
Cleveland 69-54
Minnesota 64-60 (-5.5)
Kansas City 62-61 (-7.0)

AL Wild Card Standings
WC1: Yankees 66-57 (+2.5)
WC2: Twins 64-60, Angels 64-60*
Seattle 64-62 (-1.0)
Kansas City 62-61 (-1.5)
*Monday game still in progress

Bullpen Usage
Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days:
Attached Image: Bullpen621.png
Looking Ahead
TUE: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at White Sox (Lucas Giolito), 7:10 pm CT
WED: Twins (Ervin Santana) at White Sox (James Shields), 7:10 pm CT
THU: Twins (Jose Berrios) at White Sox (Derek Holland), 7:10 pm CT

Question of the Day
I still included Gee in the bullpen report, but he’s gotta stay in the rotation at least for another turn, right?

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28 Comments

Don't know if this is where I should post this but I just saw where Melvin Upton opted out of his minor league agreement. Good defense- runs well - hits better against lefties- I think we still have one 40 man roster spot- I could see being able to use him since Sept 1st. is so close. Any thoughts?

If you go just by results, Gee and Slegers should be in the rotation. Gibson, not so much. Santiago, no way. Then it's a matter of finding a fifth pitcher. Gonsalves or Jorge?

    • Danchat and MN_ExPat like this
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Don Walcott
Aug 22 2017 03:58 AM
Gee has earned another start or two, at least.
    • Original Whizzinator likes this
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yarnivek1972
Aug 22 2017 06:18 AM

If you go just by results, Gee and Slegers should be in the rotation. Gibson, not so much. Santiago, no way. Then it's a matter of finding a fifth pitcher. Gonsalves or Jorge?


If Gee and Slegers remain in, aren't there already 5? Or are you advocating removing Colon?
    • Danchat likes this
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yarnivek1972
Aug 22 2017 06:22 AM

Gee has earned another start or two, at least.


So did Slegers. Yet the decision makers decided to keep Gibson and have him start tonight instead. If the Twins lose tonight's game, it is all on Falvey.

Gibson has been supposedly pitching for his job all year. He's been terrible all year other than a handful of starts. Yet for some inexplicable reason, they keep giving him the ball.
    • lukeduke1980 likes this

 

If Gee and Slegers remain in, aren't there already 5? Or are you advocating removing Colon?

 

Plus Mejia might be back at some point?

 

 

    • Danchat and Original Whizzinator like this

Looks like Polanco homered from both sides of the plate yesterday!

    • 70charger likes this

 

So did Slegers. Yet the decision makers decided to keep Gibson and have him start tonight instead. If the Twins lose tonight's game, it is all on Falvey.

Gibson has been supposedly pitching for his job all year. He's been terrible all year other than a handful of starts. Yet for some inexplicable reason, they keep giving him the ball.

If they win the game tonight does Falvey get all the credit? I'm more annoyed with the Melville start. Had never heard of him before this week and checked his minor league and major league stats and was quite underwhelmed.  Would have preferred Gibson on short rest since he only went 4 innings and maybe his sinker benefits by it and then go with Slegers tonight.  

    • PopRiveter and Original Whizzinator like this
Still irritated about game 1.

Looking back, between the Detroit walkoff debacle because of the refusal to address the bullpen in the offseason (putting the numerous other losses early aside for now) and yesterday's game 1....they may be the difference between the playoffs and not.

They really should be 3.5 back if the Indians, .5 back of Yankees, and 2.5 ahead of the Angels. That is a huge difference.

That's why I never understand the reluctance to call up prospects that can help, etc early in the year. Every game is important, could be the difference, and out of respect for the fans paying their salary, and taxpayers who payed for their stadium, should be treated as such.

 

If Gee and Slegers remain in, aren't there already 5? Or are you advocating removing Colon?

I can't count, but actually (now that I think about it for the first time), it might be better to use Gee as a starter and find one more long man for the pen, using him as an occasional starter. Slegers could do that. The Twins appear to need at least three "relievers" that can pitch five innings when one of the starters implodes early. Gee might fit that role, but after his first start, you've got to put him into the rotation. Slegers has mechanics that look relatively easy on the arm, so maybe he could fit the long-man / starter role. Jorge has an easy motion, too....

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Cap'n Piranha
Aug 22 2017 08:39 AM
Let's say the Twins lose 1-0 tonight, with Gibson going the distance. The run scores when a runner gets on by a passed third strike, a steal of second, takes third on a grounder to first, and then scores on a fly out where the outfielder throws up the line. Is it still Gibson/Falvine's fault?
    • Danchat and Original Whizzinator like this
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yarnivek1972
Aug 22 2017 08:49 AM

 

If they win the game tonight does Falvey get all the credit? I'm more annoyed with the Melville start. Had never heard of him before this week and checked his minor league and major league stats and was quite underwhelmed.  Would have preferred Gibson on short rest since he only went 4 innings and maybe his sinker benefits by it and then go with Slegers tonight.  

 

 

Yeah, Gibson went 4 last time.  And threw more pitches than Selgers, who went 6 1/3. As for giving credit to Falvey if the Twins win, I'll keep an open mind if  

A) Gibson actually pitches at least 6 innings - something he has done in less than 1/3 of his starts this year

B ) the Twins offense scores fewer than 8 runs - in other words, Gibson actually had to keep the Sox offense in check.  He's given up 5 runs or more in 1/3 of his starts this year.  He's only made 3 starts in which he gave up fewer than 3 runs.

 

Gibson isn't good.  Hasn't been good for more than 2 years now.  I have no idea if Slegers will stick long term as a starter for the Twins (or anywhere else).  But right now I think he gives the team a considerably better chance to win.  It baffles me that the decision makers who have watched these guys pitch, don't see it that way.

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Tom Froemming
Aug 22 2017 09:01 AM

If Gibson only goes four and Derek Falvey pitches the final five innings, I'll give Falvey credit for the win.

    • USAFChief, Dantes929, 70charger and 3 others like this

 

Yeah, Gibson went 4 last time.  And threw more pitches than Selgers, who went 6 1/3. As for giving credit to Falvey if the Twins win, I'll keep an open mind if  

A) Gibson actually pitches at least 6 innings - something he has done in less than 1/3 of his starts this year

B ) the Twins offense scores fewer than 8 runs - in other words, Gibson actually had to keep the Sox offense in check.  He's given up 5 runs or more in 1/3 of his starts this year.  He's only made 3 starts in which he gave up fewer than 3 runs.

 

Gibson isn't good.  Hasn't been good for more than 2 years now.  I have no idea if Slegers will stick long term as a starter for the Twins (or anywhere else).  But right now I think he gives the team a considerably better chance to win.  It baffles me that the decision makers who have watched these guys pitch, don't see it that way.

Gibson was good two years ago and I have given him more benefit than most but I agree he just hasn't been good. He sometimes appears to be victim of bad D or bad calls or bad luck but this is no longer SSS.  He had a really good game early in the year where he threw his curve ball a lot but doesn't appear to throw it much anymore.  Bad Nick Blackburn for a while now. 2015 he had 17 quality starts out of 32 and many were better than just 6 innings 3 runs that qualify. Last year was a poor 8 out of 25 and this year he is 4 of 21. In his wins two years ago his ERA was a ridiculously low 0.71 so essentially when he was on he was putting up Cy Young type numbers even though he was only on every other game. This year in his wins his ERA is 4.91 so even his best has been pretty poor.

    • Original Whizzinator likes this

Just baffled about the Tim Melville callup. This guy's minor league numbers are bad. He's been an unsuccessful pitcher at every level. Like these-numbers-get-you-cut-before-high-A bad. 

 

Minor league career ERA of 4.58, WHIP of 1.43. What are they seeing? The article mentions a 96 mph fastball, but since it's never translated to outs...

 

I get that they are grasping at straws on a doubleheader day, but this decision has no base. With this track record, I probably wouldn't let him start for the Saints.

 

Super confused.

    • Dantes929 likes this
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yarnivek1972
Aug 22 2017 10:24 AM

Gibson was good two years ago and I have given him more benefit than most but I agree he just hasn't been good. He sometimes appears to be victim of bad D or bad calls or bad luck but this is no longer SSS. He had a really good game early in the year where he threw his curve ball a lot but doesn't appear to throw it much anymore. Bad Nick Blackburn for a while now. 2015 he had 17 quality starts out of 32 and many were better than just 6 innings 3 runs that qualify. Last year was a poor 8 out of 25 and this year he is 4 of 21. In his wins two years ago his ERA was a ridiculously low 0.71 so essentially when he was on he was putting up Cy Young type numbers even though he was only on every other game. This year in his wins his ERA is 4.91 so even his best has been pretty poor.


If you dig a little further into 2015, you will see very good first half, bad second half. Indeed, the first half of 2015 is the only substantial period of Gibson's career when he wasn't average to poor.
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Tom Froemming
Aug 22 2017 10:33 AM

 

I'm more annoyed with the Melville start. Had never heard of him before this week and checked his minor league and major league stats and was quite underwhelmed.

 

Just baffled about the Tim Melville callup. This guy's minor league numbers are bad. He's been an unsuccessful pitcher at every level. Like these-numbers-get-you-cut-before-high-A bad. 

 

Minor league career ERA of 4.58, WHIP of 1.43. What are they seeing? The article mentions a 96 mph fastball, but since it's never translated to outs...

 

I get that they are grasping at straws on a doubleheader day, but this decision has no base. With this track record, I probably wouldn't let him start for the Saints.

 

Super confused.

You guys clearly aren't reading the minor league reports. Melville has a 2.70 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 for Rochester. He went seven innings and gave up one run or less in four of his 10 starts there. Just for context, Aaron Slegers has a 3.18 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 6.7 K/9 at the same level this year, and everybody's dying to see more of him.

    • PopRiveter and Original Whizzinator like this

You guys clearly aren't reading the minor league reports. Melville has a 2.70 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 for Rochester. He went seven innings and gave up one run or less in four of his 10 starts there. Just for context, Aaron Slegers has a 3.18 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 6.7 K/9 at the same level this year, and everybody's dying to see more of him.


I read them! That's how I knew who Melville was before yesterday. :)

I personally am not dying to see more of Slegers, but he is 3 years younger than Melville and in his first taste of AAA (Melville is in his 3rd go-around). Melville has also been a minor league free agent after each of the last 3 seasons, and will be again if we remove him from the 40-man. Maybe that will be Slegers fate someday too, but for now I can see how he offers a bit more upside/control (albeit modest).
    • Tom Froemming likes this

 

Still irritated about game 1.

Looking back, between the Detroit walkoff debacle because of the refusal to address the bullpen in the offseason (putting the numerous other losses early aside for now) and yesterday's game 1....they may be the difference between the playoffs and not.

They really should be 3.5 back if the Indians, .5 back of Yankees, and 2.5 ahead of the Angels. That is a huge difference.

That's why I never understand the reluctance to call up prospects that can help, etc early in the year. Every game is important, could be the difference, and out of respect for the fans paying their salary, and taxpayers who payed for their stadium, should be treated as such.

That logic isn't a fair way of looking at things. We can't pretend it is as if we have won every single game we should have won and lost every game we should have lost.

    • Dantes929 likes this
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Original Whizzinator
Aug 22 2017 04:05 PM

Looks like Polanco homered from both sides of the plate yesterday!

Dialled in! He was probably pretty shook up for awhile. He is showing his fortitude now. I like that the FO can be plain spoken at times. Levine said Polanco was a second baseman but if nothing else he would benefit from his time at short. I think his future is bright.
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Original Whizzinator
Aug 22 2017 04:16 PM

If you dig a little further into 2015, you will see very good first half, bad second half. Indeed, the first half of 2015 is the only substantial period of Gibson's career when he wasn't average to poor.


Well the first round pick was quite a bit better than average or poor during that stretch, definitely looks the part and appears to have some talent. People complain they gave up on Ortiz so quickly and Gibby? It's been hard for some to come to the conclusion that's it's time to cut bait. If it keeps going the way it has and he shows up in the rotation next year then I will be steamed.
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Deduno Abides
Aug 22 2017 05:22 PM
When you're talking about Polanco, are you referring to the same guy that the peanut gallery wanted DFA'd just a few weeks ago, when his play was suffering while he was still in mourning? Imagine that, a talented young player getting better when given a supportive environment. Gotta give Molitor credit.
    • Dantes929 likes this

When you're talking about Polanco, are you referring to the same guy that the peanut gallery wanted DFA'd just a few weeks ago, when his play was suffering while he was still in mourning? Imagine that, a talented young player getting better when given a supportive environment. Gotta give Molitor credit.


I remember the angst in that thread, and I know I wasn't down on him, but was there really a significant number of people on here who wanted him DFA'd? Or was it one or two out of hundreds of posters?

 

You guys clearly aren't reading the minor league reports. Melville has a 2.70 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 for Rochester. He went seven innings and gave up one run or less in four of his 10 starts there. Just for context, Aaron Slegers has a 3.18 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 6.7 K/9 at the same level this year, and everybody's dying to see more of him.

You are right. I read the minor league reports but mainly for the names I want to see. I looked at his baseball reference page and his minor league and major league totals are unimpressive.  I trust your stats for his recent performance and stand corrected.

 

If you dig a little further into 2015, you will see very good first half, bad second half. Indeed, the first half of 2015 is the only substantial period of Gibson's career when he wasn't average to poor.

If you dig a little further he had a bad August where he had two quality starts in 6 attempts but he had 5 quality starts in 6 tries in September. The whole year we either got great starts from him or bad but not a whole lot in between.  I was ok with that then and would love to see it now.     4 quality starts in 21 tries just doesn't cut it. 


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