Reality Check
Jun 18 2017 07:16 PM |
Nick Nelson
in Minnesota Twins
Image courtesy of Joe Nicholson, USA Today
Only one offense really showed up over the past four games, however. The Indians piled up 28 runs in the sweep while the Twins managed to push only eight across. Minnesota was at the mercy of a vastly superior staff, a disadvantage that will make retaking first place an exceedingly difficult proposition.
The formula for the Twins has pretty much gone like this: Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, pray for rain (or lots of run support). Neither of the two top starters was available in this series and rain mostly stayed away, so the remainder of a highly unimpressive rotation took its beatings. Meanwhile, the contrast in bullpen quality was blindingly evident, as Cleveland countered ineffectual efforts from the Twins with dominance from the likes of Andrew Miller, Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw.
Measured by Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), the Indians rank as the best staff in the American League, and the Twins rank worst. So the lopsided outcomes are fairly unsurprising and trading places atop the division was all but inevitable. Cleveland's lead is likely to expand, too, unless the Twins can find a way to solve the hopeless patchwork comprising the back half of their rotation.
The Contention Conundrum
There is one school of thought that goes like this: the Twins aren't ready to compete yet, and winning in the short term should not be a primary consideration.
I can only respond by channeling Eduardo Escobar: C'MON!
I'm all for keeping the big picture in mind, but at the same time, the Twins are doing themselves a disservice if they don't make efforts to get the most out of this season. You cannot take for granted that you'll have another year where so many things play out right. It's easy to get caught up in the team's weaknesses after a demoralizing sweep, but let's not overlook the strengths that kept them in first place for five straight weeks.
Miguel Sano is mashing at an elite level. Basically every other hitter is at least holding his own at the plate. Byron Buxton, one of the few who isn't, has finally been healthy and is changing games with his defense. Jose Berrios is fulfilling his potential before our very eyes. Ervin Santana has been one of the league's best starters. Brandon Kintzler has, somehow, been one of the its most effective closers.
Cleveland is good, but it's not clear any of the other AL Central teams are. The Twins have some glaring flaws, to be sure, but there's a real opportunity to compete into September and maybe beyond.
Focusing on that goal may force the organization to make some tough calls.
No Easy Answers
I think we can safely say plugging in waiver wire fodder like Adam Wilk and Chris Heston is not going to be the solution to Minnesota's pitching woes. Nor does it appear that Nik Turley is going to get it done. Kyle Gibson and Adalberto Mejia have been erratic messes. Yet, for now, there is little choice but to keep running them out there.
Hector Santiago appears close to returning (he'll make a rehab start this week) but he brings little assurance at this point. Phil Hughes is not all that close, and may come back as a reliever.
I got this text last week from one of my more optimistic, bright-side-seeking Twins fan friends: "I know this is easier said than done but I really think if we could find even two more adequate starting pitchers and like three more bullpen arms we'd be just fine."
I mean, you said it man.
Unfortunately, finding adequate arms is a challenge that has vexed this franchise for the better part of a decade.
In the minors, the Twins really have two players with the legitimate ability to enter the mix as difference-makers in the rotation. At Class-AA Chattanooga, Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves (ranked Nos. 1 and 2 on Twins Daily's top prospect list) have both been tearing it up for the past several weeks. They have stuff that could play in the big leagues.
But this is where the front office must weigh that big picture against maximizing the team's chances in the present. You certainly don't want to throw a guy into the fire before he's ready; neither prospect has made even 20 starts at Double-A, or any at Triple-A. There is also the matter of protecting arms. Romero missed two entire seasons before returning to throw 90 innings last year, while Gonsalves missed the first chunk of this year with shoulder issues. The organization is trying to carefully manage workloads and strain, which is much harder to do in the majors.
Then again, there are not a lot of alternatives. Trading away significant talent for an impact starter would be more harmful to the long-term structure, and we've seen the types of replacement level talent out there in waivers and free agency. The Twins can either stick with that plan, or they can turn to the best internal options they have, slightly ahead of schedule.
These are the tricky decisions involved with trying to hang in a race. It's nice to be in a position to tackle them again, and we'll learn much about the new regime in seeing how they proceed.
- brvama, Dance with Disco Dan, mickeymental and 4 others like this
146 Comments
The Cleveland and Houston series should put an end to the 2017 mirage.If you cannot keep up with and beat good teams at home, you are not going to go far in a post-season, even if you are lucky enough to make it there.
So the Twins should be sellers, try to get a few prospects that will help them next year and beyond and try to close holes with more trades or free agency (Michael Pineda might look pretty good in Twins' pinstripes) during the off-season.
This way, they can evaluate some of the kids as well...
Twins will not make the playoffs, will not go far if they do, and have no chance to win the World Series.
So, accepting that, what makes sense?
Build for the future.Pitching, pitching, pitching.And catching, catching, catching.
Then, find a 3B for when Sano goes to 1B.
They can make their nest from there.
Catching isn't a problem right now. Pitching is. I think Sano is more likely to go from the Twins to another team before he goes to 1B. I'd be more worried about extending him (no easy feat). He will likely be the first of the core to go.
The Twins need to be sellers, as reality is not a bad thing at this point. I think this weekend should reinforce the need to continue the rebuild, and that it takes time. The idea of adding a couple players and they can contend is a dream. Market Santana, Dozier, and hope Santiago comes back and put up good numbers in July. These are the only viable trade chips. This is still a Low 70 win team, without pitching.
I expected the pitching to be bad, but the offense doing nothing against mediocre pitching in this series was the most frustrating for me.
I'm honestly trying to figure out the logic here.
Right now, the Twins have a .434 Pythag, a 70-win pace over 162 games. Playing at that level the rest of the season would result in 75 wins. That's basically a regression to the mean on bad luck from last season plus a bump from good luck and/or an improved defense, Sano stepping up, and a few other guys getting better. I'd say that the rebuild is going fairly close to schedule, really.
Assuming that the Twins won't enjoy the crazy cluster-luck of 2015, they'll probably need to find another 10-12 wins to get into the WC game. Is it worth going in big as a buyer, or rushing a couple AA pitching prospects, to chase that goal this year?
It seems like a longshot to me, even given their current spot in the standings.
Honestly, I think it would be for the best if the team hit a long skid over the next few weeks, so there's no doubt about whether Falvine should be buyers or sellers.
Let's get PUMPED UP around here! It's one series in June. On to the next one.
Not TRYING is worse than getting beat. By far.
I agree with Nick. I agree with Chief and Van, too. Houston and Cleveland do have better teams and it's going to be difficult to get past them let alone deep into the playoffs. But not impossible. So, I agree with Chief ... for cryin' out loud ... TRY! Give us a few more pieces to help put it together and try!
Really, it's more like, I expect the team to wind up with 75-78 wins. The offense has been about average (100 wRC+) coming into today, but the pitching is terrible--even worse than last year, by FIP/xFIP. (Even Berrios has a 4.53 xFIP, so I'd expect some significant regression from him in the next few months.) They've been riding atop the division because they beat up on the Royals coming out of the gate, while the Indians got off to a slow start. Are the Twins genuinely good? Even Nick seems to be saying, no, not really.
So for me, it's just a question of what I'd like to see happen, so that the Twins might be better in the next year or two. For some people, another 2015 season would be fun. Trade for a reliever or two, call up the kids, and see what happens! But the fringe contender, "hey, as long as we're hanging around .500, we're sorta in the WC race, despite this wretched pitching, so the club better not trade Dozier or Santana," until the team winds up with 77 wins (FG projection today), or 83 wins, is not so enjoyable for me. More importantly, in the big picture, it's counterproductive to the club's longterm goals if the front office acts like "we're real contenders now!"
So, yeah, I do hope that they go into a skid, or start playing to their Pythag or BaseRuns levels, sooner than later. In the long run, I think we're all enjoy the Twins more, that way.
Santana? Love the guy. Big believer, I would bet he has at least one if not two quality season's left even if he should regress to the level of a quality #3 starter. But even with that, unless a contending team has a big need through injury, trading him makes a weak position even weaker. And are we really going to get enough back to really make trading him worthwhile?
A little better luck on the injury front could go a long way to having some quality rotation and bullpen arms ready next season. There is also, hopefully, the opportunity for a quality FA SP next off season. Possibly a similar bullpen arm.
But if you really want to make moves, it would seem to be as buyers and not sellers. But at this point...and I'm not saying I have the answer...are we really ready to trade off some of those young arms, Gordon, an OF or two, to come up with a Sonny Gray type? Or are we better off sticking with Mejia, hope Santiago comes back with his head on straight, and pray the more recently aggressive Gibson can continue to be at least average and wait until next off season?
I think a team with very little pitching available would be very stupid to trade Santana. That would give the Twins even less pitching for the next couple of years.
We still have another month before The Twins can elect to be a seller of Ervin. That's about it. Anyone else has played themselves out of a contract with anyone (except, perhaps, Grossman or Escobar - who shant bring THAT much in return).
The Twins have to ask is Ervin worth keeping. Can you get an equally as effective (average, not this year) guy who is younger as a free agent for the same money, or better to have the vet chops of Santana.
The Twins have to figure out what to do with Polanco. Second baseman (keep Escobar for now) or shortstop, which means Dozier stays. If they can live without Dozier, does he have mid-season value is the biggest question.
The pitching is a shambles. Many of the arms won't get contracts elsewhere next season. The Twins have to ask if they have any desire to keep Santiago or Gibson about. At some point, you might want to walk away from Hughes. But who do you replace him with.
All the names we thought would join the bullpen this year might only make it in September, and that is IF there are 40-man spaces for them. The future is still Chargois, Melotakis, Bard, Burdi, Jay, Rosario, Reed with other names like Jones, Hildenberger, Baxendale still in the running (and should be up getting lumps instead of these...cast offs). Then there is the next wave with names like Curtis, Clay, McIver, Ramirez, Muren and Hackimer. The Twins have so much bullpen promise if the guys can stay off the DL.
But major sellers? Possibly not. Nothing to really sell. Can they start getting rid of people and bringing up players before their time? Perhaps, but it is nice to have the luxury of doing that and sending them back to the minors for more...seasoning. That doesn't happen if the roster is full of prospects, sadly.
The next 30 days will be telling. Start selling those tickets. Lucky the Cleveland series didn't totally kill of the "can't win at home" Twins, but it came close.
When the year started, the Twins were expected to be a good team in 2019. No matter how this year turns out, that to me is still the target. We've waited 8 years for this team to be a consistently winning team. I would much rather see the Twins have a nice long run as playoff contenders starting in 2019 then sell off the upper level talent for a couple of short term rentals.
As far as this year goes, only Sano as a hitter and Santana as a pitcher appear to be playing at and would be reliable pieces on a playoff team. The rest still need much more development time or never were pieces to be counted on. Even Sano and Santana have had their struggles for much of the past month.
I think the real value of Santana, Dozier, Grossman, etc is the develop time they provide for more players in the minors to make it to the upper levels of the system and for the current young players on the roster to build into a real core on a playoff contender. If I'm a veteran on this team I expect to get traded.
A strong playoff team not only has a good 25 man roster , but ready replacement level players in the upper minors. This team has neither.
Watch the team develop and grow. This team has shown glimpses for the future and for the first time in years has provided some hope. Relax and enjoy the show.
A starting pitcher that has a floor of being a third starter, a couple of relief pitchers and you would have a contender much like there was a decade ago here.
Without obtaining some pitching the Twins could hang as contenders if the team hits efficiently as it has been.
I'm ok with sticking with the plan. And I don't really want to trade away prospects, as this team isn't really ready to stay in the hunt in the long run. But why wasn't Romero, Gonsalves or even Jorge brought up as the 26th man in the double header to start one game and return after?You have the benefit of giving the young man a cup of coffee, get the nerves issue out of the way and they certainly would of been a better option or at least as good as an Adam Wilk or Nik Turley. And maybe even of pitched well and given the team a chance to win. The Twins hitters knew they had no chance with Wilk and Turley and folded like a tent offensively. Pretty poor roster management by Falvey while in the thick of a division race with your top foe.