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Real Deal: What Would It Take To Get J.T. Realmuto?

As the trade deadline approaches, there's a rightful focus on 'sell' moves the Minnesota Twins should be pursuing.

But I would submit there's another, very different sort of swap that Minnesota should be plotting toward.

By finding a way to acquire star catcher J.T. Realmuto from Miami, the Twins would be addressing their greatest organizational weakness with authority, while also reinforcing the expectation of a short-term return to contention.

Trading for Realmuto wouldn't be so much a buy move for the second half as a buy move for 2019, 2020, and beyond.

The reason to do it now is that if they don't, the Twins might miss their chance.
Image courtesy of Amber Searles, USA Today
This season, the Twins have gotten a lowly .581 OPS from the catcher position, ranking as one of the worst in the majors. But worse even are the Washington Nationals, who have openly tried to upgrade behind the plate. They made a big push for Realmuto during the offseason as Miami held its firesale, but ultimately came up short.

Washington's continuing interest in the 27-year-old, who has improved every year in the majors and currently sports a .317/.368/.551 slash line for the Marlins, is well known. But during a late-June radio interview, Nats GM Mike Rizzo was candid in his stance.

“They’ve got a great player in Realmuto,” said Rizzo. “They’re not going to sell him cheap. We know what the return has to be on Realmuto, and we’re not willing to meet that price."

According to offseason reports and rumors, the Marlins refused to make a deal that didn't include at least one of Victor Robles or Juan Soto. To put that in some context, Robles and Soto ranked No. 1 and No. 2 on Baseball America's list of top Nationals prospects, compiled last November, and the two outfielders placed No. 7 and No. 56 on BA's 2018 preseason list. Soto is now already up in the majors and raking at age 19.

So, clearly the Marlins aren't going to settle for anything less than at least one premier, top-end prospect at the front of a Realmuto package. This means that for Minnesota, the conversation would need to start with Royce Lewis, currently 10th in BA's live rankings, or Alex Kirilloff, whose monster season in A-ball has rocketed him up to No. 35.

From my view, Lewis is off the table. You just don't trade a player like him away. But pretty much anyone else in the organization should be fair game, including Kirilloff. Could the Twins build a package around the young slugger that gets it done? Should they?

Hypothesizing a Prospect Package for Realmuto

One can envision Kirilloff striking Miami's fancy as the headliner in an offer for Realmuto – a worthy fallback after they failed to land Robles or Soto. The Marlins system is short on impact bats and Kirilloff has quickly established himself as one of the best in the minors. His sweet left-handed swing draws comparisons to Christian Yelich, who himself enjoyed five stellar seasons with the Fish before being shipped out during the aforementioned offseason firesale.

Mired in last place, the Marlins don't really have any hopes of returning to contention within the next couple of seasons, and Realmuto is due for free agency after 2020. Around that same time, Kirilloff figures to be breaking into the big leagues, so the logic behind such a swap from their perspective is easy enough to see.

From Minnesota's end, losing Kirilloff would obviously hurt. He's a key piece in their system, especially as offensive production has taken a lackluster turn for the big-league club. But Realmuto's impact in that regard would be enormous, with his polished catching skills and middle-of-the-order bat turning a crucial position from major liability to resounding strength.

And, for whatever it's worth, the Twins might have just found themselves another Kirilloff. First-round draft pick Trevor Larnach, who signed last week after starring for Oregon State in the College World Series, has a very similar profile: lefty-swinging, power-hitting corner outfielder, and he'll slot in at just about the same stage of development. It is of course unlikely he'll reach the same level of esteem as Kirilloff, but the Twins at least wouldn't be opening a huge void.

So, what else needs to be added alongside Kirilloff to make this happen? I suspect Miami would command another prospect in Minnesota's top tier – perhaps a Nick Gordon or Stephen Gonsalves. Personally I would be reluctantly willing to part with either. But even that might not get it done.

Emerging flamethrower Brusdar Graterol, or the more advanced and MLB-ready Fernando Romero, are names that really could get their attention, and while giving either up in addition to Kirilloff would be excruciatingly painful, I think I do it if it gets me two years of Realmuto with a chance to nail down a longer deal. And I might add another prospect from the Twins' Top 10 or 15, too.

"The only way to be sustainable over time is to build up the minor league system. That is our focus," said Marlins CEO Derek Jeter during a town hall meeting with fans in December. "I don't expect you to be happy."

Dealing Realmuto for a package of prospects headlined by Kirilloff and, say, Graterol might not make Miami fans happy, but it would certainly align within the teardown strategy Jeter was defending. The franchise would add at least two heralded talents with enormous upside while shaving around $6 million off the 2019 payroll.

I'll admit, the timing would be a little weird.

Why Now?

It's not often you see an avowed seller go and flip multiple top prospects for a 27-year-old All-Star at the trade deadline. In fact, I'm not sure it has ever happened. But now is a time for creative, outside-the-box thinking.

The Twins – maintaining a focus on short-term contention – aren't your typical deadline seller.

Realmuto – tied for second in the National League in WAR and under affordable team control for multiple years – isn't your typical deadline target.

As mentioned earlier, one aspect of the rationale here is beating others to the punch. Realmuto is a highly coveted asset and the Marlins are sure to have numerous callers this month. One can argue that it's more logical for Minnesota to wait until the offseason before engaging in these discussions, escaping the leverage dynamics inherent to the deadline, but that isn't necessarily a luxury they can afford.

There are also some concrete benefits to pulling the trigger now. Realmuto would have the final two months to acclimate and gain familiarity with the Twins pitching staff, which figures to largely carry over in 2019. There's real value in that for a catcher.

And also, Realmuto is just a hell of a player. You could hardly make a more impactful addition at the trade deadline. To whatever extent the Twins remain attached to their nearly invisible postseason hopes, he'd be a huge boost.

At the very least, it sends a good message to players and fans: Things haven't gone to plan, but we're still serious about winning, and now.

This kind of move would allow them to pursue that goal vigorously while lessening their reliance on Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano to lead the charge. It'd be a major shakeup and strategic pivot for the front office, but I believe such measures are warranted given this current state of affairs.

What do you think? What would it take to pry Realmuto from the Marlins, and would you be willing to do it?

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252 Comments

 

OK, I got a chance to glance through the previous comments. I think the problem is a lot of people are thinking the options are either you sell the farm for Realmuto or you're stuck with Castro/Garver/Wilson.

 

The Twins should have plenty of payroll room to go out and sign a Yasmani Grandal or a Wilson Ramos this offseason. Are they as good as Realmuto? No, but they also wouldn't cost you any prospects. Plus, here are their numbers over the past two seasons combined:

 

Realmuto .291/.341/.484, .352 wOBA, 120 wRC+

Grandal .246/.320/.456, .332 wOBA, 108 wRC+

Ramos .278/.319/.461, .331 wOBA, 111 wRC+

 

And according to Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Average, Grandal is the best defensive catcher in baseball this season at +10.9. Realmuto is at +2.2 and Ramos right at average, 0.0.

 

Grandal was slumping so bad the second half of last year, that Barnes became the go to, and the hitter, up to and into the post season for most of the games. This year, Barnes can't buy a hit (around .200 all year), and Grandal is back, and hitting (albeit inconsistently... .313 thru April, .181 and .162 in May and June, and .429 in July ... so far). Castro was supposed to be so good defensively, and throwing people out, but man can he create some wild pitches that should have been blocked or caught, and framing rating has tanked. It is all so tenuous. 

    • Mike Sixel likes this

 

Option 1 requires a lot of hope that things work out. And you want to rely on Castro starting again after a torn ACL?

 

I haven't heard anything about Castro possibly not being ready for 2019. Plus, a torn meniscus isn't as serious as a torn ACL.

 

But, even if Castro were to not play next season, I still would prefer to get pretty much nothing out of the catcher position than to give up Romero + Kirlloff + Graterol. 

 

Also, option 2 requires a lot of hope that things will work out to. Namely, that Realmuto will sign an extension, that it won't financially handicap the Twins, and that he doesn't have a significant injury playing the most dangerous position in baseball. 

    • alarp33 and Oxtung like this

 

I agree. I don’t want to part with Lewis. However wouldn’t every teams option 1 look better? The Twins would never try to acquire that top tier player in trade.

 

Yeah, I agree, I think every team's option 1 would look better. Which is why I think this kind of trade is too risky unless the team is really just one solid piece away from contending for a championship. IMO, the Twins are multiple pieces away. And I'd rather the Twins have a chance at 2+ pieces (at least Romero + Kirilloff) than just the one in Realmuto.

    • alarp33 likes this

 

I haven't heard anything about Castro possibly not being ready for 2019. Plus, a torn meniscus isn't as serious as a torn ACL.

 

But, even if Castro were to not play next season, I still would prefer to get pretty much nothing out of the catcher position than to give up Romero + Kirlloff + Graterol. 

 

Also, option 2 requires a lot of hope that things will work out to. Namely, that Realmuto will sign an extension, that it won't financially handicap the Twins, and that he doesn't have a significant injury playing the most dangerous position in baseball. 

 

Ervin Santana was supposed to be ready by May 1.....and Castro isn't young, exactly.

 

 

Ervin Santana was supposed to be ready by May 1.....and Castro isn't young, exactly.

 

What does Ervin Santana have to do with Castro? Are you anticipating a similar finger surgery for Castro next February?Again, he'll be fully healed from surgery by Sept/Oct.Pretending he is a question mark to be healthy because of this knee surgery by March next year is just ridiculous

    • mngopherguy likes this

 

What does Ervin Santana have to do with Castro? Are you anticipating a similar finger surgery for Castro next February?Again, he'll be fully healed from surgery by Sept/Oct.Pretending he is a question mark to be healthy because of this knee surgery by March next year is just ridiculous

 

I'm suggesting we don't know if he'll be "fully healed" or not. He probably will be, but until he's playing, we don't know. I'm also suggesting that even if he is, he's not likely to be as good as he was 2 years before that.....

 

I'm suggesting we don't know if he'll be "fully healed" or not. He probably will be, but until he's playing, we don't know. I'm also suggesting that even if he is, he's not likely to be as good as he was 2 years before that.....

 

So are you suggesting any time the Twins have a player who has any sort of surgery they trade for a replacement because Erv Santana's finger took long to heal? That's how it comes across and it's pretty nonsensical 

    • SwainZag and mngopherguy like this

no, I'm literally saying we don't know how healthy he'll be in the future, and giving ESan as an example of how it isn't always so easy to predict the future as we think. An example. 

    • tvagle likes this

 

no, I'm literally saying we don't know how healthy he'll be in the future, and giving ESan as an example of how it isn't always so easy to predict the future as we think. An example. 

 

We don't know how healthy any player on the roster will be next April. It's silly to compare Castro to Santana considering the timing of both of their injuries

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mngopherguy
Jul 10 2018 09:43 PM

 

Mejia, May, and/or Busenitz would be an insult to the Marlins. We are never going to be able to make a trade with second or third tier players included. Like Doc said, the trade is going to hurt if it’s going to work. The position the Twins are in right now, IMHO no one is off limits!

 

I agree that this proposed trade is not enough.That said, the Twins would be foolish to offer up Lewis or Romero.They have all kinds of cash next season, sign a FA catcher and keep the prospects.

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mngopherguy
Jul 10 2018 10:04 PM

 

I don’t know how screwed up a team has to be before we should accept they are not in a window but how anyone can conclude we are just a player away from contending with NY, Boston, Houston, and Cleveland. We have one proven SP that will be here after next year, the bullpen is a mess and the guys who were supposed to be our superstars are in the minors. Yes, lets trade away or top prospects for a catcher that will be here for 2 years and hope all of what ails this team will be fixed by opening day next year. Who cares if trading away those top prospects could result in continued futility for several years. Let’s go all-in on next year.

 

We have control of the core players through 2021-2022. This team can also afford to keep Berrios and one of Buxton or Sano if we have cheap talent like Kirriloff, Lewis, Graterol, etc coming on board as the price of some of our core playersgoes up. Managing our assets to be all-in on a 2 year window is a very bad idea. I would prefer a plan that at least has a chance of sustained success. Luckily, Falvey and Levine have been very consistent in their message that sustainability is a primary objective so I trust we won't see them pushing all their chips in, especially when we have a bad hand. You can't bluff when there are several great teams that are set-up for long-term success.

 

I completely agree with this 100%.An the Cubs and other teams have owners willing to spend.

While I do not advocate this trade, the unfortunate thing is that the Twins have been so poorly managed throughout these past years that we have absolute black holes at certain positions.And catcher is one of them, this despite having $24.5 million invested in the position with Jason Casto's contract.  

 

Mitch Garver is the "brightest" Twins catching prospect, but he is a 27 year old rookie that doesn't seem to have management's confidence to do anything beyond being a backup utility catcher.After Garver, you have to go to A+ league to find a catcher that is even a minor prospect in Ben Rortvedt, a 2016 2nd round draft pick.But Rortvedt has a minor league career .630 OPS versus Garver's .793.I get that the Twins FO apparently prefers catchers who cannot hit at all but Rortvedt's minor league stats do not prdict a catcher that can hit major league pitching.

 

So, the best approach to this matter is the rebuilding approach.Don't trade your prospects to fill a "hole".Bring up Romero, Gordon, Rooker, Wade, Bard, Curtiss, Gonslaves, and maybe a couple of guys deeper in the minors like Arreaz. Let this team lose games, gain experience, and develop at teh major league level. 

 

Then, in another couple of years, the team might develop into a competitive team and you can fill int he holes from there.Think the 1991 Twins filling in the catcher position with Brian Harper. 

 

Unfortunately, the fluke 2017 season has led this team down the wrong path, and even before that no one has been willing to tear this team down to its foundation to properly rebuilding, preferring the patchwork approach that has led us to this point today.As I have said, many times in this forum, the longer we delay taking the rebuilding medicine, the longer it will take before we have a competitive team.  

 

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LA VIkes Fan
Jul 11 2018 09:26 AM

 

Considering the years would likely be low at those yearly figures, absolutely. The Twins have what, $30 million in commitments for next year?

 

BTW I would hammer the under on Grandal getting up to $20 million / year

Grandal is staying in LA. I live in LA and the papers say he likes it here and the Dodgers want him back, especially with Austin Barnes, the heir apparent, hitting .213/.331/.265 (.596).They have a good catcher in AAA but the Dodgers don't have to roll with an untried guy at catcher next year. They'll cut a deal with Grandal. Similarly, Wilson Ramos is likely to be traded to Washington at the deadline and has also said he likes it there and would like to stay there. Another team that can and will outspend the Twins ot keep a guy they want. Much as I'd love to have the choice of Grandal or Wilson next year with the only criterion being money, it just doesn't look very likely.

 

That's what makes Realmuto attractive to me - we get him and we can keep him for at least two years. Having said that,. the scuttlebutt is that he Marlins intend to approach him after this year and try to get him on a long term contract, at least if you believe their SB Nation site.

 

Bottom line, we need to find a catcher either by developing Garver or trading for someone else's AAA or AA project and developing them.  

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Major Leauge Ready
Jul 11 2018 03:45 PM

 

Have you looked at the FA list for 1B and SP? Good luck with that.

 

https://www.mlbtrade...ree-agents.html

 

You have a point if the assumption is that we have to spend all of the available payroll immediately. The nature of strategic planning is long-term and specifically where assets are concerned the assessment should match the life of the assets. I assumed the dollars would get spent over the next couple of years unless the FO is willing and successful in pursuing Machado. We have many unanswered questions which include a number of pitching prospects that really should be auditioned next year. It would not be wise to commit all of the available dollars yet.

 

There are a number of 3B prospects and it might make sense to move Sano to 1B. I would prefer a 245lbs version of Sano shows up for spring training and his approach / pitch recognition improves significantly but the depth of FA 3B might make that option a good one. If Sano flops, we have other options at 1B. It also would not be horrible to bring Mauer back on a 1 year deal if he is willing. We could also spend on the BP. We all know spending on the BP in free agency is risky but one legit late inning guy would be a nice add.

    • LA VIkes Fan likes this

 

You have a point if the assumption is that we have to spend all of the available payroll immediately. The nature of strategic planning is long-term and specifically where assets are concerned the assessment should match the life of the assets. I assumed the dollars would get spent over the next couple of years unless the FO is willing and successful in pursuing Machado. We have many unanswered questions which include a number of pitching prospects that really should be auditioned next year. It would not be wise to commit all of the available dollars yet.

 

There are a number of 3B prospects and it might make sense to move Sano to 1B. I would prefer a 245lbs version of Sano shows up for spring training and his approach / pitch recognition improves significantly but the depth of FA 3B might make that option a good one. If Sano flops, we have other options at 1B. It also would not be horrible to bring Mauer back on a 1 year deal if he is willing. We could also spend on the BP. We all know spending on the BP in free agency is risky but one legit late inning guy would be a nice add.

 

Mauer is 28th among 1B in offense this year....how does bringing him back make them winners? he's not good anymore.

 

And, I thought we were discussing next year's team. Sure, if they can find someone that will help a lot past next year, sign those types....but that won't help next year at all.

    • USAFChief and Thrylos like this

 

Off the top of my head, I believe the Cubs signed Jon Lester to a $150 deal in December of 2014, coming off a 71-91 season. I bet I can find more examples if I spend 5 minutes looking them up.

 

Perhaps they felt they already had the pieces needed to compete, and were simply adding to it.

 

Sort of like the Twins, with Sano, Buxton, Berrios, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco, etc.The exact guys they've been building this "window" around for half a decade.

 

I just have never agreed with the philosophy of waiting until you're really good, before you try to get really really good.

 

IMO, that's how you spend decades waiting to get really good. Tha's not how the Yankees and Red Sox got where they are. They assess their needs, and then fill them, by whatever means necessary. Or at least try.

What do the Twins have that resembles Rizzo, Russel, Casro, Soler at that time, Hendricks and Arrietta with prospect as good as Bryant and Schwarber?

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Major Leauge Ready
Jul 11 2018 05:53 PM

 

Mauer is 28th among 1B in offense this year....how does bringing him back make them winners? he's not good anymore.

 

And, I thought we were discussing next year's team. Sure, if they can find someone that will help a lot past next year, sign those types....but that won't help next year at all.

 

I understand your focus and many others is next year. My focus is building a sustainable winner. The two are generally not the same which at least in part probably highlights our difference in opinion. I have had a front row seat in observing dozens of organization being derailed or marginalized by short-term focus. I often don't reply in the kindest of manners to this focus because 20 years of watching it fail (sometimes spectacularly) tends to form a firm opinion of such practices. 

 

You are correct that Mauer is not the solution. I thought I was clear that was a fall back position. Are you against signing one of the 3B free agents and moving Sano to 1B? Obviously, this scenario changes if Sano works his butt off to get in shape and turns things around offensively by the end of the year.

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Major Leauge Ready
Jul 11 2018 06:00 PM

 

What do the Twins have that resembles Rizzo, Russel, Casro, Soler at that time, Hendricks and Arrietta with prospect as good as Bryant and Schwarber?

 

There is also the small issue of about $100M additional revenue for the cubs and $150M for Boston. Houston or Cleveland are far better models to examine unless you don't believe revenue matters. Boston could spend the Twins budget and have enough left over to sign 6 Lester equivelents.

 

Houston had a core far deeper and far more proven. Cleveland's moves were trading for guys while they were still prospects and extending a couple key guys.

    • alarp33 likes this

 

I understand your focus and many others is next year. My focus is building a sustainable winner. The two are generally not the same which at least in part probably highlights our difference in opinion. I have had a front row seat in observing dozens of organization being derailed or marginalized by short-term focus. I often don't reply in the kindest of manners to this focus because 20 years of watching it fail (sometimes spectacularly) tends to form a firm opinion of such practices. 

 

You are correct that Mauer is not the solution. I thought I was clear that was a fall back position. Are you against signing one of the 3B free agents and moving Sano to 1B? Obviously, this scenario changes if Sano works his butt off to get in shape and turns things around offensively by the end of the year.

 

My focus is on not pushing the goal posts all the time. There are times to rebuild, and times to go for it (especially if one believes medium markets go in cycles). 

 

Either we believe in Sano and Buxton, or we don't. But if we wait for perfect information, it will be less likely to be successful, because we have not added talent around them. And if we to find out they are bad, and didn't trade Gibson at his peak, we lose value.

 

So, pick a path that isn't the "play not to lose" path, that dooms mediocre teams to stay mediocre.

 

It's not totally fair to say my focus is next year, actually. I'd be ok if they sell off Gibson and Odorizzi...but then play the young guys and get them up here....to gather information and get them more ready for when the window is real.

 

I'd also be ok if they decided to trust Sano and Buxton, and traded for Realmuto and signed the 2-4 best FAs they can next year. I have my doubts about that plan, but I wouldn't kill them for it.

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diehardtwinsfan
Jul 11 2018 06:46 PM

 


So, what else needs to be added alongside Kirilloff to make this happen? I suspect Miami would command another prospect in Minnesota's top tier – perhaps a Nick Gordon or Stephen Gonsalves. Personally I would be reluctantly willing to part with either. But even that might not get it done.
 

 

I really liked this piece, and I've made a case that we should get Realmutto for the same reasons you propose… but this line is perplexing.

 

Stephen Gonsalves is exactly the type of piece we should be adding to Kirilloff. We have Littell, Slegers, and Romero all sitting in AAA, all of which are pretty much ready as well, and there's not room for all of them. Romero should be untouchable, and I'd much rather part with Gonsavles than Graterol. 

 

If you can build a package around Kirrilloff (who is definitely redundant) and Gonsalves (who is also redundant), you do it. Yeah, were' probably adding some lotto tickets, but this is a great way to trade from surplus to get a need. 

    • gagu likes this

 

There is also the small issue of about $100M additional revenue for the cubs and $150M for Boston. Houston or Cleveland are far better models to examine unless you don't believe revenue matters. Boston could spend the Twins budget and have enough left over to sign 6 Lester equivelents.

 

Houston had a core far deeper and far more proven. Cleveland's moves were trading for guys while they were still prospects and extending a couple key guys.

Houston's revenue last year was estimated at347 million by stastica, It was good for 6th place. Winning was worth 150 million more than they made in 2014. It was also 90 more million than the Twins made last year The revenue per fan for the Twinswas 45 per fan Getting back to selling out would get them close, but the Astro still could afford one more superstar player than the Twins.Any of the teams it still goes back to having a deep core from within. Even the Cubs did not start adding the talent by free agency until it looked like they had a strong core.

I really liked this piece, and I've made a case that we should get Realmutto for the same reasons you propose… but this line is perplexing.

Stephen Gonsalves is exactly the type of piece we should be adding to Kirilloff. We have Littell, Slegers, and Romero all sitting in AAA, all of which are pretty much ready as well, and there's not room for all of them. Romero should be untouchable, and I'd much rather part with Gonsavles than Graterol.

If you can build a package around Kirrilloff (who is definitely redundant) and Gonsalves (who is also redundant), you do it. Yeah, were' probably adding some lotto tickets, but this is a great way to trade from surplus to get a need.


I know we’re all guilty of it at times, myself included. But can we stop overrating a mediocre starting P prospect like Gonsalves? There is a 0.0% chance the Marlins trade Realmuto to the twins for a package that not only doesn’t include Lewis, but includes Gonsalves as the 2nd piece

If willing to give J.Y. a $100 million offer for five years or more, maybe just maybe. Although you would be sacrificing the talent you yourself expect the club to to use to bring you back from the dark hole. And then we have the issue of giving an extended conract to an aging catcher who may not be a catcher in 3-4 years anymore. Or, do you just wait until J.T. becomes a free agent after 2020?

Good arguments on both sides. I'm not agreeing with the black and white comments though. The farm is deep and promising, and Realmuto is an impact player at an important position. There are valid reasons for trading some of the prospect depth.

The big get last season was Verlander. For all their young talent, the Astros probably wouldn´t have made it to the World Series without his 4 post-season wins vs NY and Boston. But to get him, Houston gave up three players that are now ranked #1, #6 and #10 in the Tigers system, but hung onto their two real gems.

Realmuto isn´t Machado, but he is a difference maker, and if he could bring back a nice package in the future if he decided not to extend his contract.

The subject here is what it would take to get him, not the extremes of giving whatever it takes or not sacrificing anything for the future. There is an interesting place in between that rightly merits a 7-page thread.

This is baseball. The variables involved creates possibilities. While I personally wouldn't include Lewis straight up, the idea of Kirlilloff and Gonsalves along with a second tier prospect is at least worthy of discussion. Maybe a deal will require a Kyle Tucker, but he isn't a benchmark at this point. Names get thrown around loosely sometimes. I'll believe it when I see it.

Anyway, an excellent, thought-provoking post.

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Major Leauge Ready
Jul 12 2018 01:37 PM

 

My focus is on not pushing the goal posts all the time. There are times to rebuild, and times to go for it (especially if one believes medium markets go in cycles). 

 

Either we believe in Sano and Buxton, or we don't. But if we wait for perfect information, it will be less likely to be successful, because we have not added talent around them. And if we to find out they are bad, and didn't trade Gibson at his peak, we lose value.

 

So, pick a path that isn't the "play not to lose" path, that dooms mediocre teams to stay mediocre.

 

It's not totally fair to say my focus is next year, actually. I'd be ok if they sell off Gibson and Odorizzi...but then play the young guys and get them up here....to gather information and get them more ready for when the window is real.

 

I'd also be ok if they decided to trust Sano and Buxton, and traded for Realmuto and signed the 2-4 best FAs they can next year. I have my doubts about that plan, but I wouldn't kill them for it.

 

Mike, we just have very different ideas of management decision making principles. For starters, there is no such thing as perfect information but this team has absolutely crucial personnel that could not be more uncertain at this point. I would add that better developed information is the foundation to solid decision making.Therefore, I rigidly disagree with your position we will be less likely to succeed if we wait to get a better information. 

 

The "moving the goal posts" is a phrase used by many people, certainly not just you. The "movement" is a date, the principles driving the decision making process should remain the same. What I hear people saying is I am sick of waiting. While I can sympathize, the fact fans want it sooner than later is very poor decision criteria. The status of the team should dictate when to give up future assets to elevate the teams ability to win.

 

You and many others, including local and national sportscasters have pointed toward Buxton and Sano being crucial. Well, they could not be further from carrying this team. Therefore, betting the future on them today is incredibly bad management. At a minimum, the FO should wait for Buxton and Sano to demonstrate they can be effective at the major league level and that's still a long way from demonstrating they play at the level needed to make us contenders. We Have one reliable starter signed past next year and our bullpen is not close to that of a contender.

 

Our young core has not developed but many fans want us to proceed as if they have. There is not a credible argument (IMO) this team is at a point it should be making this type of move. At a minimum, it would make sense to evaluate Buxton, Sano, and several prospects the remainder of the year. Then, while presumably in a much better informed state, reconstruct the 2019 roster. 

    • alarp33 and wyowib like this

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