Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

Article: Constructing Pitching Staff Will Become a Number...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:29 AM
The Twins have addressed their two biggest needs on the position-player side, adding C.J. Cron at first base and Jonathan Schoop at secon...
Full topic ›

Article: Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 403: Meat Tornado

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:21 AM
Aaron and John talk about Nelson Cruz and Edwin Encarnacion rumors, the Twins' remaining bullpen and rotation options, Byron Buxton's fir...
Full topic ›

Article: Rochester Red Wings' Long and Stories Histor...

Twins Minor League Talk Yesterday, 11:06 PM
Below is an excerpt from the recently-released 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. Nate Rowan is the Media Relations Director of the...
Full topic ›

Buxton: "Pissed" at Twins for No Call-Up Decision...

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:56 PM
According to the Star Tribune, Byron Buxton is displeased with the Twins after not being called up in September of 2018. According to Byr...
Full topic ›

Non-Twins Off-season news, tidbits and transactions

Other Baseball Today, 12:29 AM
We had a thread for items around the baseball world that were worth sharing but not worth a thread of their own. Now that the 2018 season...
Full topic ›

Potential Suitors for Brian Dozier

With the trade deadline just three weeks away, and all signs pointing towards the Twins being sellers at the deadline, contending teams are starting to take stock of what the Twins have to offer. Despite being in a down year (relative to his normal production) and on an expiring contract, Dozier remains one of the top players the Twins have to offer at the deadline.
Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
I get that there is still somewhat of an ongoing debate about whether or not it is the best decision for the Twins to move Dozier at the deadline or wait until this winter and give him a qualifying offer. While I agree that both sides of the debate are still up for discussion that is not the point of this article. Instead, we will be looking into which teams have the most to gain by adding Brian Dozier to their roster before the deadline to try and assess what kind of value Dozier might have.


Boston Red Sox

For the past decade, the Boston Red Sox have been a team with very little concern about second base with Dustin Pedroia manning the position. However, with the combination of age and injury, question marks have started to arise for the Red Sox at second. Pedroia has played just three games all season and is currently on the disabled-list with no clear timetable for his return.

With Pedroia out, the Red Sox have used a combination of Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt at second. Nunez is coming off a couple of okay years in 2016 and 2017 (combined 5.1 fWAR), but has been absolutely dreadful this season to the tune of a -0.4 fWAR. On the other hand, Holt has been a better option for the Red Sox at second, but his best attribute to the team is as a utility man so he isn’t exactly their full-time answer for second base.

With Dozier on the team, he provides an immediate upgrade over Nunez. He also brings a lot more upside than does Holt, who has just a career 4.3 fWAR spread across seven Major League seasons.


Los Angeles Dodgers

If there is a contending team that would see the biggest upgrade at the second base position by adding Brian Dozier, it is the Los Angeles Dodgers. A couple of years ago the Dodgers were linked as the team with the most interest in trading for Brian Dozier, but those talks inevitably feel through as the Dodgers decided to go for Logan Forsythe instead.

That move hasn’t panned out too well for them, as Forsythe had an okay season last year, but has been terrible in Dodger blue this year with a .202/.260/.301 slash line to go along with just two home runs, good for a 54 wRC+ (100 being league average). The other main option for the Dodgers at second base has been an aging Chase Utley. Much like Forsythe, Utley has had a down year at the plate with an OPS of .621 and a wRC+ of 71.

Combined the Dodgers have received -0.6 fWAR at the second base position in 2018, which ranks 28th in all of baseball. By comparison, Brian Dozier has been worth 1.0 fWAR this season and is on pace for a league average season despite how poorly it seems like he has played. That alone would be a big upgrade for the Dodgers.


Milwaukee Brewers

Another contending team that could use an upgrade at second base is the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers improved on an 86-win team from a year ago with the additions of Lornezo Cain and Christian Yelich, along with the breakout performances from Josh Hader and Jesus Aguilar. However, one area where the Brewers could use some help is in the middle-infield.

Coming off a strong season in 2016, Jonathan Villar has been nothing but a disappointment over the last two years. This year Villar is hitting .265/.312/.388 with six home runs. He also has just 13 stolen bases this year, so the additional production he has brought on the base paths has been limited.

The Brewers have also tried out Hernan Perez and the recently DFA’d Eric Sogard at second base, but neither has given them much production. With the Brewers squarely in the middle of a divisional race with the Chicago Cubs, they will almost certainly be looking to upgrade one of their weakest areas on the team.


San Francisco Giants

The Giants made a statement this winter that they wanted to compete in 2018 with the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. Even though things havenot gone exactly as planned with their pitching staff, the Giants find themselves at 48-45 and just three games out in the NL West and four games back of the second NL Wild Card position.

Joe Panik has served as the team’s second baseman since their World Series run in 2014 but has dealt with some injuries this year. Panik missed all of May after having surgery on his left thumb and was just placed back on the DL on Saturday with a groin injury. Even when Panik has been healthy, he has struggled his way to a .654 OPS.

With an organization that clearly has a mind set on winning now, and a team that is very much in the hunt, it would not be a surprise if the Giants look for a short-term answer at second base as they try to continue their push back into the postseason.


Other Available Second Basemen

Now that we have established that there will be a market for second basemen at the trade deadline, the other thing to consider is what other second basemen are available for teams to choose from. Unfortunately for the Twins, the list of seemingly available second basemen is pretty strong.

Scooter Gennett – The Cincinnati Reds second basemen has been one of the better players at that position in major league baseball over the past couple of seasons. So far this year Scooter Genett has a .322/.366/.509 slash line with 14 home runs, and ranks fifth among all second basemen with a 2.9 fWAR. Gennett is under control through 2019, but with the Reds being unlikely to compete next season they should be looking to move him now to maximize his value.

Jed Lowrie – The A’s have exceeded many people’s expectations this year, and a big part of that has been the play from Jed Lowrie, whose 3.3 fWAR ranks second among all MLB second basemen. The A’s have gotten hot of late and pulled within six games of the Mariners for the second AL Wild Card spot. If the A’s can stay hot over the next few weeks that will be great news for the Twins as they will look to be buyers instead of sellers at the deadline, thus taking Lowrie off the market.

Starlin Castro – Another second baseman who could be on the move by the end of this month is Starlin Castro. If nothing else, the salary conscious Marlins will be looking to get his contract off their books. Despite being in his eighth MLB season, Castro still is only 28 and under control for $11 million in 2019 with a team option of $16 million in 2020 ($1 million buyout). For every team except the Marlins this is a pretty affordable contract for a player who is still producing at a quality level.

Given these circumstances, I wouldn’t be surprised if we have to wait until right up before the deadline before Brian Dozier is traded away (if he does get traded). I think buying teams will be waiting to see what happens with Scooter Gennett and Jed Lowrie before they make a move on Brian Dozier. I also think the Twins might hold off on Dozier as long as they can, hoping he might get on one of his patented hot streaks and increase his trade value before the deadline.


  • Share:
  • submit to reddit
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

123 Comments

 

Again, how he fared in 2018 in these scenarios will have no bearing on his trade value.

This is the kind of thing, quite frankly, that does this forum no good.You didn't even look at the links I have provided.The links I posted highlighted his CAREER NUMBERS so what you said above isn't even what I was talking about.I don't mind when people disagree with me, but I do have trouble with what you just did.I will try again and this time please give me some feedback on what these numbers say to you:

CAREER NUMBERS, close and late:

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

CAREER NUMBERS, Margin > 4 R

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

    • Jham likes this

 

This is the kind of thing, quite frankly, that does this forum no good.You didn't even look at the links I have provided.The links I posted highlighted his CAREER NUMBERS so what you said above isn't even what I was talking about.I don't mind when people disagree with me, but I do have trouble with what you just did.I will try again and this time please give me some feedback on what these numbers say to you:

CAREER NUMBERS, close and late:

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

CAREER NUMBERS, Margin > 4 R

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

Let me try to elaborate.I looked at you link.You can see the numbers vary wildly from year to year.I do not at all believe that Dozier has a reputation as a "choker" among decision-makers in the industry, REGARDLESS of the numbers you cite."Close and Late" numbers are compiled against the best relievers in the game (to a significant degree) and numbers moderately below overall numbers are not uncommon at all....it's not abnormal.If you disagree, and think Dozier's value is materially tainted by performance in 'clutch' situations, that's your prerogative.I very much doubt that is the case.

    • Oxtung, 70charger, Rigby and 1 other like this

 

This is the kind of thing, quite frankly, that does this forum no good.You didn't even look at the links I have provided.The links I posted highlighted his CAREER NUMBERS so what you said above isn't even what I was talking about.I don't mind when people disagree with me, but I do have trouble with what you just did.I will try again and this time please give me some feedback on what these numbers say to you:

CAREER NUMBERS, close and late:

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

CAREER NUMBERS, Margin > 4 R

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

 

500 at bats over a 7 year span is not a meaningful sample size in any way. It will not have any affect on his trade value. His performance overall this season might

    • 70charger, wsnydes, jkcarew and 1 other like this

 

500 at bats over a 7 year span is not a meaningful sample size in any way. It will not have any affect on his trade value. His performance overall this season might

It isn't important that you agree with me or not.I simply presented the facts and these facts will more than likely be brought into the equation during any kinds of deadline deals.  

Photo
jorgenswest
Jul 11 2018 02:16 PM

This is the kind of thing, quite frankly, that does this forum no good.You didn't even look at the links I have provided.The links I posted highlighted his CAREER NUMBERS so what you said above isn't even what I was talking about.I don't mind when people disagree with me, but I do have trouble with what you just did.I will try again and this time please give me some feedback on what these numbers say to you:
CAREER NUMBERS, close and late:
https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|
CAREER NUMBERS, Margin > 4 R
https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|


Is that enough to support a career conclusion about Dozier into the future? A few considerations might be important.

The Late and Close split is going to have the lower numbers league wide. It shouldn’t be surprising as batters are often facing closers or very good relievers. You might still argue that Dozier’s drop is greater than the league average drop.

The other consideration is sample. Batting average takes over 900 plate appearances to stabilize. The other slash stats a full season. It takes years to get enough sample and by the time that sample is large enough the player must get be very different than when they entered the league.

Given both considerations I doubt that this data is a significant factor in any teams thinking as they seek players to improve their team at the trade deadline.
    • Oxtung, 70charger, jkcarew and 1 other like this

 

Let me try to elaborate.I looked at you link.You can see the numbers vary wildly from year to year.I do not at all believe that Dozier has a reputation as a "choker" among decision-makers in the industry, REGARDLESS of the numbers you cite."Close and Late" numbers are compiled against the best relievers in the game (to a significant degree) and numbers moderately below overall numbers are not uncommon at all....it's not abnormal.If you disagree, and think Dozier's value is materially tainted by performance in 'clutch' situations, that's your prerogative.I very much doubt that is the case.

 

I did not use the word "choker".I simply presented the facts.My main point is that Dozier's performance in these situations can not be called an anomaly and in trade negotiations they will look for any way to undercut his value.These statistics are out there and they are not going to be ignored.  You can draw your own conclusions.

 

 

 

Is that enough to support a career conclusion about Dozier into the future? A few considerations might be important.

The Late and Close split is going to have the lower numbers league wide. It shouldn’t be surprising as batters are often facing closers or very good relievers. You might still argue that Dozier’s drop is greater than the league average drop.

The other consideration is sample. Batting average takes over 900 plate appearances to stabilize. The other slash stats a full season. It takes years to get enough sample and by the time that sample is large enough the player must get be very different than when they entered the league.

Given both considerations I doubt that this data is a significant factor in any teams thinking as they seek players to improve their team at the trade deadline.

 

YOu can have your own opinion on this.I simply presented the facts.This is potential leverage against the Twins in any negotiations because to a contender they want to push his value down.It is the art of the deal. 

 

On the underlined, I know full well that close and late numbers are usually slightly lower, but it isn't in this case.His numbers are SIGNIFICANLY lower than his output in other situations.Not just a little bit, a lotta bit. 

 

Am I somehow wrong in these points?

Photo
jorgenswest
Jul 11 2018 02:38 PM

YOu can have your own opinion on this.I simply presented the facts.This is potential leverage against the Twins in any negotiations because to a contender they want to push his value down.It is the art of the deal. 
 
On the underlined, I know full well that close and late numbers are usually slightly lower, but it isn't in this case.His numbers are SIGNIFICANLY lower than his output in other situations.Not just a little bit, a lotta bit. 
 
Am I somehow wrong in these points?


You correctly represent the past though I disagree with the word slight. The facts likely have little meaning for Dozier’s performance the rest of the season.
    • ewen21 likes this

 

You correctly represent the past though I disagree with the word slight. The facts likely have little meaning for Dozier’s performance the rest of the season.

I am not pretending to have a crystal ball.Nowhere have I predicted what he might do in the second half because that is pie in the sky nothing.In this situation, I stick to the facts. Teams possibly interested in Dozier will use whatever they can to get him for less.If these numbers are avaiilable to laypeople like us, don't you think office executives who do this for a living witl use myriad stats (these included) during the negotiation process?

 

Put all that aside, and just look at where he is now.This was supposed to be the year for him to play for a mulityear contract.If he gets injured or doesn't have a very strong second half he isn't going to get the deal he was hoping for before this season.NOt even close.

 

YOu can have your own opinion on this.I simply presented the facts.This is potential leverage against the Twins in any negotiations because to a contender they want to push his value down.It is the art of the deal. 

 

On the underlined, I know full well that close and late numbers are usually slightly lower, but it isn't in this case.His numbers are SIGNIFICANLY lower than his output in other situations.Not just a little bit, a lotta bit. 

 

Am I somehow wrong in these points?

No.You are citing data that is real.Where we are disagreeing is in what the data means and how (or if) it would materially impact Dozier's trade value in a 2-3 month rental scenario.So, the things we are disagreeing on are subjective and a matter of opinion. 

Photo
stringer bell
Jul 11 2018 03:26 PM
Dozier has been the Twins' best player for the last four years. He hit over 40 homers in 2016 and has led the team in homers for the last four years. No other Twins has done that since Killebrew.

This year he hasn't been the team's best player, not even close. But he does have a history of having big second halves, and did so in both '16 and '17. He also had a poor second half in 2015, so maybe all we can expect is one torrid half out of two.

I believe potential suitors will look at more than this year's poor numbers and his close and late stats. Dozier has proven to be durable and productive and trading for him for August and September and perhaps October could and should make a lot of sense for a contender needing a second baseman. I would think that someone would see him as the piece that puts them over the top.

I do agree with Jorgen that most players close and late numbers in this era will be a far cry from their overall numbers. If you're facing the closer and setup guy, it's a lot tougher than hitting against the last guy or two in the 'pen.
    • USAFChief, Blackjack, Dman and 1 other like this
Photo
jorgenswest
Jul 11 2018 03:27 PM

I am not pretending to have a crystal ball.Nowhere have I predicted what he might do in the second half because that is pie in the sky nothing.In this situation, I stick to the facts. Teams possibly interested in Dozier will use whatever they can to get him for less.If these numbers are avaiilable to laypeople like us, don't you think office executives who do this for a living witl use myriad stats (these included) during the negotiation process?
 
Put all that aside, and just look at where he is now.This was supposed to be the year for him to play for a mulityear contract.If he gets injured or doesn't have a very strong second half he isn't going to get the deal he was hoping for before this season.NOt even close.


I would guess that every team has people knowledgeable about data and statistics to disregard the splits meaning for future performance. The negotiation isn’t going to come down to data in a split.

It is going to be the market that sets his return. If there are multiple teams truly interested the Twins will get a better return but I am not certain that there will be a high demand for second basemen. I think the market is the relevant conversation about possible Dozier deals.
    • Dman likes this

Dozier is hitting .278 / .350 / .611 in July and is notorious for his second half finishes, he has decent value.

    • TFRazor likes this

 

No.You are citing data that is real.Where we are disagreeing is in what the data means and how (or if) it would materially impact Dozier's trade value in a 2-3 month rental scenario.So, the things we are disagreeing on are subjective and a matter of opinion. 

Yes, this opinions are subjective, but you are dealing in absolutes when you assert the data as completely irrelevant in the negotiation process.Not sure how you can do that.You are essentially saying it will have no affect at all and I don't see how there is a 0% chance those numbers don't get looked at or considered.  

 

I surely want to get as much for Dozier as we can, but we didn't get many bites last year and that was when he was slightly more than a two month rental

 

I would guess that every team has people knowledgeable about data and statistics to disregard the splits meaning for future performance. The negotiation isn’t going to come down to data in a split.

It is going to be the market that sets his return. If there are multiple teams truly interested the Twins will get a better return but I am not certain that there will be a high demand for second basemen. I think the market is the relevant conversation about possible Dozier deals.

 

I never said the negotiation hinged on those splits.It was only an example of ways Dozier's value can be further deflated.As I said in the last post, there wasn't a market for him last year.There isn't much of a market this year and he now only a two month rental.

 

I guess we can sell the "Dozier gets hot in the second half angle" but then that is only lip service.What team is going to part with anything much by pinning their hopes on that?

 


I do agree with Jorgen that most players close and late numbers in this era will be a far cry from their overall numbers. If you're facing the closer and setup guy, it's a lot tougher than hitting against the last guy or two in the 'pen.

That was never in dispute.It is a statistical fact that players (by and large) have worse "close and late" numbers but in the case of Dozier it is rather significant.He is also a veteran with no postseason experience.That can be a factor working against as well.

 

I am only saying what the other side of the market is going to do.They will accentuate negatives as a means to counter the Twins.I am not going to say "other teams should want Dozier because..."

 

 

That was never in dispute.It is a statistical fact that players (by and large) have worse "close and late" numbers but in the case of Dozier it is rather significant.He is also a veteran with no postseason experience.That can be a factor working against as well.

 

I am only saying what the other side of the market is going to do.They will accentuate negatives as a means to counter the Twins.I am not going to say "other teams should want Dozier because..."

Dozier has no postreason experience? That was such a forgetable game last year. What would the postseason statistics of Castro and Lowrie say about them versus the SSS of Dozier's wc game last year?Hint Casro and Starlins OPS are about .500 after each has played in 22 games.It makes a case that these two choked whereas Dozier shined.

 

I am only saying what the other side of the market is going to do.They will accentuate negatives as a means to counter the Twins.I am not going to say "other teams should want Dozier because..."

 

You do not know that, which is why everyone is disagreeing with your posts. That is not how negotiations work."We will really need a 2nd baseman and RH bat, but I don't know, we have seen the numbers and in 2013 Brian Dozier in close and late situations was brutal"

    • TFRazor and mngopherguy like this

 

You do not know that, which is why everyone is disagreeing with your posts. That is not how negotiations work."We will really need a 2nd baseman and RH bat, but I don't know, we have seen the numbers and in 2013 Brian Dozier in close and late situations was brutal"

You seriously don't believe the buyer teams who express interest don't also express any concerns about the player they are interested in acquiring?You seriously don't think they try to drive the price down?

 

I only expressed only ONE WAY how they might do that.I didn't even bring up his "clutchness" or lack of it.I simply responded to a poster who dismissed it as nothing.I am saying it MIGHT NOT be nothing to the buyer teams.

 

The stuff you put in quotes is your own fabrication.Please don't try to pawn that junk off on me.

Thanks

 

Dozier has no postreason experience? That was such a forgetable game last year. What would the postseason statistics of Castro and Lowrie say about them versus the SSS of Dozier's wc game last year?Hint Casro and Starlins OPS are about .500 after each has played in 22 games.It makes a case that these two choked whereas Dozier shined.

 

That one game "playoff" might be the post season to you.It isn't to me.That game was only a chance to make it to the post season.

    • Jerr likes this

Not meaning to be argumentative.WIth that, I will pull myself out of here for a few days

 

Take care :)

 

That one game "playoff" might be the post season to you.It isn't to me.That game was only a chance to make it to the post season.

Call it what you will, the statistics sites list it as postseason. The game happens after the season ends. What is undeniable is that for the argument that Dozier does not have post season to be a valuable argument is that someone else available does have post season success.. That is not the case with the OP selections of 2b available players.Kinsler has done well,4 years ago when he was a better player than the last couple of years. With the number of 2b available the price may well be cheaper than a fill in reliever.The Reds, Marlins or Angels may well take a warm body.

Manny Machado has a post season OPS of .588. I do not think very many people would hold that against him. 

    • TFRazor likes this

Colorado is back in the hunt.....I really want Jon Gray. Wonder if Lynn, Dozier, and Rodney (and taking back part of a bad contract from CO) would get it done?

 

If not, I'd do Gibson and Dozier....

    • Twins33, nicksaviking and Oxtung like this
Photo
TheLeviathan
Jul 12 2018 10:35 AM

 

Colorado is back in the hunt.....I really want Jon Gray. Wonder if Lynn, Dozier, and Rodney (and taking back part of a bad contract from CO) would get it done?

 

If not, I'd do Gibson and Dozier....

 

Why would they want Dozier?I doubt they move LeMahieu or supplant him.

    • wsnydes likes this

 

Colorado is back in the hunt.....I really want Jon Gray. Wonder if Lynn, Dozier, and Rodney (and taking back part of a bad contract from CO) would get it done?

 

If not, I'd do Gibson and Dozier....

 

I know he's in AAA currently but the Rockies aren't trading Gray for expiring contracts. If they do trade him it will be for prospects, and probably pretty good ones


Similar Articles


by Tom Froemming , 20 Nov 2018
Photo


by John Bonnes , 14 Nov 2018
Photo


by John Bonnes , 12 Nov 2018
Photo


by Tom Froemming , 06 Oct 2018
Photo


by Seth Stohs , 26 Sep 2018
Photo