Jump to content

Providing independent coverage of the Minnesota Twins.
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

The Forums

Article: Constructing Pitching Staff Will Become a Number...

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:29 AM
The Twins have addressed their two biggest needs on the position-player side, adding C.J. Cron at first base and Jonathan Schoop at secon...
Full topic ›

Article: Gleeman & the Geek, Ep 403: Meat Tornado

Minnesota Twins Talk Today, 12:21 AM
Aaron and John talk about Nelson Cruz and Edwin Encarnacion rumors, the Twins' remaining bullpen and rotation options, Byron Buxton's fir...
Full topic ›

Article: Rochester Red Wings' Long and Stories Histor...

Twins Minor League Talk Yesterday, 11:06 PM
Below is an excerpt from the recently-released 2019 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook. Nate Rowan is the Media Relations Director of the...
Full topic ›

Buxton: "Pissed" at Twins for No Call-Up Decision...

Minnesota Twins Talk Yesterday, 10:56 PM
According to the Star Tribune, Byron Buxton is displeased with the Twins after not being called up in September of 2018. According to Byr...
Full topic ›

Non-Twins Off-season news, tidbits and transactions

Other Baseball Today, 12:29 AM
We had a thread for items around the baseball world that were worth sharing but not worth a thread of their own. Now that the 2018 season...
Full topic ›

Potential Suitors for Brian Dozier

With the trade deadline just three weeks away, and all signs pointing towards the Twins being sellers at the deadline, contending teams are starting to take stock of what the Twins have to offer. Despite being in a down year (relative to his normal production) and on an expiring contract, Dozier remains one of the top players the Twins have to offer at the deadline.
Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
I get that there is still somewhat of an ongoing debate about whether or not it is the best decision for the Twins to move Dozier at the deadline or wait until this winter and give him a qualifying offer. While I agree that both sides of the debate are still up for discussion that is not the point of this article. Instead, we will be looking into which teams have the most to gain by adding Brian Dozier to their roster before the deadline to try and assess what kind of value Dozier might have.


Boston Red Sox

For the past decade, the Boston Red Sox have been a team with very little concern about second base with Dustin Pedroia manning the position. However, with the combination of age and injury, question marks have started to arise for the Red Sox at second. Pedroia has played just three games all season and is currently on the disabled-list with no clear timetable for his return.

With Pedroia out, the Red Sox have used a combination of Eduardo Nunez and Brock Holt at second. Nunez is coming off a couple of okay years in 2016 and 2017 (combined 5.1 fWAR), but has been absolutely dreadful this season to the tune of a -0.4 fWAR. On the other hand, Holt has been a better option for the Red Sox at second, but his best attribute to the team is as a utility man so he isn’t exactly their full-time answer for second base.

With Dozier on the team, he provides an immediate upgrade over Nunez. He also brings a lot more upside than does Holt, who has just a career 4.3 fWAR spread across seven Major League seasons.


Los Angeles Dodgers

If there is a contending team that would see the biggest upgrade at the second base position by adding Brian Dozier, it is the Los Angeles Dodgers. A couple of years ago the Dodgers were linked as the team with the most interest in trading for Brian Dozier, but those talks inevitably feel through as the Dodgers decided to go for Logan Forsythe instead.

That move hasn’t panned out too well for them, as Forsythe had an okay season last year, but has been terrible in Dodger blue this year with a .202/.260/.301 slash line to go along with just two home runs, good for a 54 wRC+ (100 being league average). The other main option for the Dodgers at second base has been an aging Chase Utley. Much like Forsythe, Utley has had a down year at the plate with an OPS of .621 and a wRC+ of 71.

Combined the Dodgers have received -0.6 fWAR at the second base position in 2018, which ranks 28th in all of baseball. By comparison, Brian Dozier has been worth 1.0 fWAR this season and is on pace for a league average season despite how poorly it seems like he has played. That alone would be a big upgrade for the Dodgers.


Milwaukee Brewers

Another contending team that could use an upgrade at second base is the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers improved on an 86-win team from a year ago with the additions of Lornezo Cain and Christian Yelich, along with the breakout performances from Josh Hader and Jesus Aguilar. However, one area where the Brewers could use some help is in the middle-infield.

Coming off a strong season in 2016, Jonathan Villar has been nothing but a disappointment over the last two years. This year Villar is hitting .265/.312/.388 with six home runs. He also has just 13 stolen bases this year, so the additional production he has brought on the base paths has been limited.

The Brewers have also tried out Hernan Perez and the recently DFA’d Eric Sogard at second base, but neither has given them much production. With the Brewers squarely in the middle of a divisional race with the Chicago Cubs, they will almost certainly be looking to upgrade one of their weakest areas on the team.


San Francisco Giants

The Giants made a statement this winter that they wanted to compete in 2018 with the additions of Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. Even though things havenot gone exactly as planned with their pitching staff, the Giants find themselves at 48-45 and just three games out in the NL West and four games back of the second NL Wild Card position.

Joe Panik has served as the team’s second baseman since their World Series run in 2014 but has dealt with some injuries this year. Panik missed all of May after having surgery on his left thumb and was just placed back on the DL on Saturday with a groin injury. Even when Panik has been healthy, he has struggled his way to a .654 OPS.

With an organization that clearly has a mind set on winning now, and a team that is very much in the hunt, it would not be a surprise if the Giants look for a short-term answer at second base as they try to continue their push back into the postseason.


Other Available Second Basemen

Now that we have established that there will be a market for second basemen at the trade deadline, the other thing to consider is what other second basemen are available for teams to choose from. Unfortunately for the Twins, the list of seemingly available second basemen is pretty strong.

Scooter Gennett – The Cincinnati Reds second basemen has been one of the better players at that position in major league baseball over the past couple of seasons. So far this year Scooter Genett has a .322/.366/.509 slash line with 14 home runs, and ranks fifth among all second basemen with a 2.9 fWAR. Gennett is under control through 2019, but with the Reds being unlikely to compete next season they should be looking to move him now to maximize his value.

Jed Lowrie – The A’s have exceeded many people’s expectations this year, and a big part of that has been the play from Jed Lowrie, whose 3.3 fWAR ranks second among all MLB second basemen. The A’s have gotten hot of late and pulled within six games of the Mariners for the second AL Wild Card spot. If the A’s can stay hot over the next few weeks that will be great news for the Twins as they will look to be buyers instead of sellers at the deadline, thus taking Lowrie off the market.

Starlin Castro – Another second baseman who could be on the move by the end of this month is Starlin Castro. If nothing else, the salary conscious Marlins will be looking to get his contract off their books. Despite being in his eighth MLB season, Castro still is only 28 and under control for $11 million in 2019 with a team option of $16 million in 2020 ($1 million buyout). For every team except the Marlins this is a pretty affordable contract for a player who is still producing at a quality level.

Given these circumstances, I wouldn’t be surprised if we have to wait until right up before the deadline before Brian Dozier is traded away (if he does get traded). I think buying teams will be waiting to see what happens with Scooter Gennett and Jed Lowrie before they make a move on Brian Dozier. I also think the Twins might hold off on Dozier as long as they can, hoping he might get on one of his patented hot streaks and increase his trade value before the deadline.


  • Share:
  • submit to reddit
Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

Subscribe to Twins Daily Email

123 Comments

Photo
Kelly Vance
Jul 10 2018 06:26 PM

Dozier just homered into the upper deck. 

 

How does that affect his trade value? 

 

Dozier just homered into the upper deck. 

 

How does that affect his trade value? 

Probably not much, everybody knows he's going to hit 20+ solo HRs a year.

Photo
diehardtwinsfan
Jul 10 2018 06:31 PM

 

Dozier just homered into the upper deck. 

 

How does that affect his trade value? 

He needs to keep it up. He had a HR and a 2B the other day, so maybe he's heating up. If he goes nuts for a week and gets that OPS up a bit, some GM may come buying....

 

But if he doesn't get hot, I just don't see a GM giving up much for him. 

    • Dman likes this

 

What troubles you about my post?

Be specific please and I will answer you.

 

I don't know what it had to do with who the suitors for him might be. 

 

I don't know what it had to do with who the suitors for him might be. 

Still not sure what the trouble is.

 

But OK....life goes on

Photo
Andrew Thares
Jul 10 2018 08:06 PM

I don't know what it had to do with who the suitors for him might be.


Sorry I put them in bold font, but if you missed them it was the Red Sox, Dodgers, Brewers and Giants.

 

Sorry I put them in bold font, but if you missed them it was the Red Sox, Dodgers, Brewers and Giants.

 

I got what you were saying,, not what ewen21 was at all in terms of the topic of the thread.

Photo
Andrew Thares
Jul 10 2018 09:26 PM

I got what you were saying,, not what ewen21 was at all in terms of the topic of the thread.


Ah my mistake, I was really confused on how that could have gotten overlooked.

 Unless a team is willing to break the bank for Scooter Gennett, I don't see the Reds trading him because value he does delivered the last 2 seasons.Much like the situation the Twins had with Dozier 2 offseasons ago

    • snap4birds likes this

The fact is Dozier couldn't fetch much in last year's market and he is going to fetch probably less this year.
We saw the offer last year. What can we honestly expect when the guy has had a down year?

agreed!

It could also be the Twins have a lower threshold for acceptable return too.

Personally, I would trade Dozier to the Dodgers for Will Smith (Dodger #9 MLB prospect).The Twins have very little depth at catcher in minors (see Bobby Wilson), and Castro has 1 yr. left on his contract.Will Smith has been touted as an excellent defensive catcher and is hitting well in AA.Garver does not look good behind the plate.The Twins need more options...

    • mngopherguy likes this
Generally speaking, the Dodgers and Red Sox have not been shy about being aggressive to win in the past. Which makes reported offers for Dozierin a deal to the Dodgers last year a bit strange. They seem the most likely suitors as they wouldn't be afraid of his remaining contact, (pretty small really), or his potential contract if they decided to bring him back, (Especially with a seemingly depressed market). And again, they have shown tendencies in the past to make big moves to put them over the top.

If I'm either of those teams I'm actually pretty excited to make the deal. (Especially since I have nothing at 2B currently). Dozier is a good guy and good teammate. Make jokes if you want, but he's solid defensively. He has a pretty nice record of production, albeit with a proven reputation for strong second halves. (Which is the point of acquiring him now as well). His contract for the remainder of this season is no burden. And I can let him go after the season if I just don't feel like its working out.

The bad news for the Twins is, he's only a half season rental and hasn't turned up the temperature of his production to normal standards yet this season. I think it's 50-50 he goes in a trade. I think it honestly comes down to a decent overpay for one of these two clubs, or the Twins keep him and make a decision in the off season how to proceed.
    • MN_ExPat likes this

 

Probably not much, everybody knows he's going to hit 20+ solo HRs a year.

and how did he do with RISP tonight?

    • Thrylos likes this

 

and how did he do with RISP tonight?

0 for 2. He's a good hitter with nobody on the bases, but he hits like 2017 Logan Morrison when there's guys in scoring position.

 

Recalling conversations last year about trading him at the deadline... from what we knew, teams weren't offering very much. The demand for 2B does seem to be higher this year, but I still don't expect to get much for him.

    • rghrbek likes this
Photo
Cap'n Piranha
Jul 11 2018 08:34 AM
I want Dozier traded because I’m petrified the Twins would QO him, and he’d accept.

Even if he doesn’t, I’m guessing no team will be willing to sign him and lose their pick, so this is the one chance to get something (anything) for him.
    • Sconnie, South Dakota Tom and ewen21 like this
Photo
Aerodeliria
Jul 11 2018 10:09 AM
I'm just afraid the Twins will be too eager and end up getting shanked. Dozier has played much more poorly than would be hoped at this point. The offer would have to be a big win IMHO. It is not inconceivable that Dozier could start his surge any day, so that would need to be the primary selling point. Just walk away from any conversation that starts out with batting average, strikeouts, etc., etc.

No-one should be surprised by this. Brian's average always spikes in August - September but what's the point if the team is completely out of it by then. He has ALWAYS been slow to the party with the exception of 2017 and part of 2016. Through out his major league career beginning in 2012 he has displayed this pattern of low .200's hitting late into the summer before going on a tear and pulling his ba and op percentage up to a halfway respectable average. And quite frankly i'm tired of it. I'm tired of all his chirping and then backing it up with awful stats. Time to move on. If they trade him for something halfway decent fine by me. 

 

I'm just afraid the Twins will be too eager and end up getting shanked. Dozier has played much more poorly than would be hoped at this point. The offer would have to be a big win IMHO. It is not inconceivable that Dozier could start his surge any day, so that would need to be the primary selling point. Just walk away from any conversation that starts out with batting average, strikeouts, etc., etc.

 

how so? I mean, I'd rather get fifty cents than nothing.....

    • Thrylos likes this

I love Dozier as a player, but even I don't want to watch him play for 2 more months just because his replacement will probably make the team weaker.When you pull the plug on a season, you pull the plug.So, if he's not going to be here in 2019, at the very least you can assess 'how far away' Gordon is, etc...or further assess whether you want Adrianza in 2019...or what Escobar looks like at 2nd...anything that has any relevance at all for 2019 plans.I think the return will be limited under current circumstances, but I see that as almost irrelevant.You're not going to give him a QO.

 

Under these circumstances, I'm almost more interested in seeing where he goes, than what we get.The work and improvement he made to transform himself into what he's become warrants a real opportunity in the playoffs...and hopefully a decent payday in the off season.

    • Mike Sixel and wsnydes like this

For those that love to talk about Dozier's RISP struggles.This is a number that varies widely from year to year for most all batters.Dozier's BA RiSP is down this year.For his career his BA RiSP is almost identical to his overall career BA (as it is for most players).

 

His 2018 BA RiSP will have absolutely nothing to do with his perceived value among potential trade partners.

    • Oxtung likes this
Photo
Andrew Thares
Jul 11 2018 11:20 AM

It appears as though the Brewers are interested in both Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar...

 

https://www.mlb.com/...8?tid=282421090

 

No-one should be surprised by this. Brian's average always spikes in August - September but what's the point if the team is completely out of it by then. He has ALWAYS been slow to the party with the exception of 2017 and part of 2016. Through out his major league career beginning in 2012 he has displayed this pattern of low .200's hitting late into the summer before going on a tear and pulling his ba and op percentage up to a halfway respectable average. And quite frankly i'm tired of it. I'm tired of all his chirping and then backing it up with awful stats. Time to move on. If they trade him for something halfway decent fine by me. 

He has been on awful teams he seems to always heat up as soon as the season is lost

 

I am tired of his act as well.He ticked me off with his comments about CIsco bunting on us early in the season and did it again after Escobar was hit by Porcello.What the heck is this all about?Is this supposed to be "breaking chops" which allegedly equates to "keeping the clubhouse loose" i.e "leadership"?Not funny (especially in front of the camera) when the incident was still fresh.

 

For those that love to talk about Dozier's RISP struggles.This is a number that varies widely from year to year for most all batters.Dozier's BA RiSP is down this year.For his career his BA RiSP is almost identical to his overall career BA (as it is for most players).

 

His 2018 BA RiSP will have absolutely nothing to do with his perceived value among potential trade partners.

Dozier has been consistently horrible in close and late situations:

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

On the other hand, when the run margin in greater than 4 runs he is much MUCH better:

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

 

There is enough statistical evidence to destroy any dismissiveness about how he performs in these situations.And if anyone thinks playoff teams are unaware of these statistics or are going to ignore them in trade negotiations they need to think again.

 

This is more about the Twins than it is Dozier.He could have done better this year to command more value and demand and he choked in that area.Not the Twins fault.

 

    • Danchat likes this

 

Dozier has been consistently horrible in close and late situations:

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

On the other hand, when the run margin in greater than 4 runs he is much MUCH better:

https://www.baseball...ziebr01|bat|AB|

 

There is enough statistical evidence to destroy any dismissiveness about how he performs in these situations.And if anyone thinks playoff teams are unaware of these statistics or are going to ignore them in trade negotiations they need to think again.

 

This is more about the Twins than it is Dozier.He could have done better this year to command more value and demand and he choked in that area.Not the Twins fault.

Again, how he fared in 2018 in these scenarios will have no bearing on his trade value.

    • Oxtung likes this

Just saw that Pedroia will not be back anytime soon.

 

Dozier + the Green Monster could be fun.


Similar Articles


by Tom Froemming , 20 Nov 2018
Photo


by John Bonnes , 14 Nov 2018
Photo


by John Bonnes , 12 Nov 2018
Photo


by Tom Froemming , 06 Oct 2018
Photo


by Seth Stohs , 26 Sep 2018
Photo